[2018-08-21] Rally Ahead? Bitcoin's Price May Be Charting a Previous Bull Patter

[ivanpoldark]

History often has a way of repeating itself.

The current price pattern in the bitcoin market is eerily similar to the one observed in the run-up to a major rally that occurred on April 12.

To start with, bitcoin charted a long-tailed candle on Aug. 14, similar to the one seen on Apr. 1, signaling the sell-off from the July 24 high of $8,507 has likely run its course.

Further, the leading cryptocurrency has spent the last seven days trading in a sideways manner around $6,400. Back in April, the cryptocurrency traded around $6,800 in the first 11 days before rising sharply above $8,000 on April 12.

More importantly, during the bitcoin price consolidation of early April, the BTC/USD shorts on Bitfinex jumped more than 44 percent to print a record high of 40,719 and fell sharply on April 12, meaning the big spike in BTC was likely fueled by the unwinding of short positions.

Interestingly, the short positions on Bitfinex currently stand at $38,640 – the highest level April 12 – and are just short of the record high of 40,719, as seen in the chart below.

Read more: https://www.coindesk.com/rally-ahead-bitcoin-is-repeating-price-action-seen-in-april/

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[Betwrong]

History often has a way of repeating itself.

The current price pattern in the bitcoin market is eerily similar to the one observed in the run-up to a major rally that occurred on April 12.

To start with, bitcoin charted a long-tailed candle on Aug. 14, similar to the one seen on Apr. 1, signaling the sell-off from the July 24 high of $8,507 has likely run its course.

Further, the leading cryptocurrency has spent the last seven days trading in a sideways manner around $6,400. Back in April, the cryptocurrency traded around $6,800 in the first 11 days before rising sharply above $8,000 on April 12.

More importantly, during the bitcoin price consolidation of early April, the BTC/USD shorts on Bitfinex jumped more than 44 percent to print a record high of 40,719 and fell sharply on April 12, meaning the big spike in BTC was likely fueled by the unwinding of short positions.

Interestingly, the short positions on Bitfinex currently stand at $38,640 – the highest level April 12 – and are just short of the record high of 40,719, as seen in the chart below.

Read more: https://www.coindesk.com/rally-ahead-bitcoin-is-repeating-price-action-seen-in-april/

All these predictions remind me of sophisticated gambling strategies, which sometimes work and sometimes don't. But of course all positive news about Bitcoin are welcomed because we love BTC and wish it all the best. I have no doubt that Bitcoin price will rise to the previous heights soon, but I don't think it can be predicted in the way the article does it. All those similarities can be accidental, so, we shouldn't make conclusions in the same manner that a schizophrenic brain would do.

[1Referee]

But of course all positive news about Bitcoin are welcomed because we love BTC and wish it all the best.

Unfortunately, during bear markets good news is absolutely meaningless. The best ever news is that LN is growing and becoming more of a stable tier to operate on, plus Bitcoin's network hashrate is higher than it has ever been. Do people (the mass) care? Nope. Their only confirmation of good news is when the price keeps increasing consistently for a couple of months.

I have no doubt that Bitcoin price will rise to the previous heights soon, but I don't think it can be predicted in the way the article does it. All those similarities can be accidental, so, we shouldn't make conclusions in the same manner that a schizophrenic brain would do.

Articles trying to convince you of something have all failed to do what they intended to do. People just need to accept that we might not see $20,000 again before 2020. And why should the price go up that much? If we reach any price over the important $10,000 level with regular (non hype) demand, that's a major achievement as well, and likely to be way more sustainable. It's accumulation time.

[darkangel11]

Unfortunately, during bear markets good news is absolutely meaningless. The best ever news is that LN is growing and becoming more of a stable tier to operate on, plus Bitcoin's network hashrate is higher than it has ever been. Do people (the mass) care? Nope. Their only confirmation of good news is when the price keeps increasing consistently for a couple of months.

The news about Bakkt exchange is also huge. This is the biggest project of 2018, more important than the CBOE ETF, yet people care more about the ETF decision being delayed than things like LN or Bakkt. Another proof that bear market is the time of brain agony for the majority of people.

I have no doubt that Bitcoin price will rise to the previous heights soon, but I don't think it can be predicted in the way the article does it. All those similarities can be accidental, so, we shouldn't make conclusions in the same manner that a schizophrenic brain would do.

Articles trying to convince you of something have all failed to do what they intended to do. People just need to accept that we might not see $20,000 again before 2020. And why should the price go up that much? If we reach any price over the important $10,000 level with regular (non hype) demand, that's a major achievement as well, and likely to be way more sustainable. It's accumulation time.

I agree. We don't need 20k to prove anything. Personally I refuse to sell below 10k USD and will see how it goes. This year I'm planning to save up another 1 BTC. Already half way through
As for the rally, I think we might get a selloff once the ETF gets delayed again next month. We may even get it earlier than that since we should have a decision about one of the smaller ETF's tomorrow.

[Betwrong]

But of course all positive news about Bitcoin are welcomed because we love BTC and wish it all the best.

Unfortunately, during bear markets good news is absolutely meaningless. The best ever news is that LN is growing and becoming more of a stable tier to operate on, plus Bitcoin's network hashrate is higher than it has ever been. Do people (the mass) care? Nope. Their only confirmation of good news is when the price keeps increasing consistently for a couple of months.

I agree, but I think that is because they can't comprehend what LN is and what advantages it can offer to Bitcoin in general. Baseless positive predictions, on the other hand, is something their mind can grasp, and that's why I think the more positive news the better. Most people don't care about justification, they just simply have no time to go into details, reading only headlines.

I have no doubt that Bitcoin price will rise to the previous heights soon, but I don't think it can be predicted in the way the article does it. All those similarities can be accidental, so, we shouldn't make conclusions in the same manner that a schizophrenic brain would do.

Articles trying to convince you of something have all failed to do what they intended to do. People just need to accept that we might not see $20,000 again before 2020. And why should the price go up that much? If we reach any price over the important $10,000 level with regular (non hype) demand, that's a major achievement as well, and likely to be way more sustainable. It's accumulation time.

No doubt that anything below $10,000 is a good buy. So, yeah, if you have spare money, it's definitely accumulation time. But why do you think that ATH may not be repeated until 2020? I think that one ETF or another will be approved by SEC in two months max, and right after that the price will start rising.

[1Referee]

The news about Bakkt exchange is also huge. This is the biggest project of 2018, more important than the CBOE ETF, yet people care more about the ETF decision being delayed than things like LN or Bakkt. Another proof that bear market is the time of brain agony for the majority of people.

I remember when the BAKKT news came out and CNBC was shilling it like crazy. They expected a solid increase when Asia would wake up, but instead of a solid increase people got REKKT.  CNBC is a great counter indicator. Short their bullish sentiment and long their bearish sentiment.

But why do you think that ATH may not be repeated until 2020? I think that one ETF or another will be approved by SEC in two months max, and right after that the price will start rising.

I assume you meant two years? While it's unlikely with how the SEC just can't wrap its head around the Asian demand steering Bitcoin's price, it theoretically is still possible (I personally think none will come through). The only thing is that we can't rely on events that might or might not come through. Without ETF speculation the market would probably hover well below $6000 by now.

On the other hand, people shouldn't forget that the SEC is just one regulator. It might very well be that one of the Asian regulators will allow an ETF to become a publicly traded instrument in their region.

[timerland]

I doubt that we're going to see anything near the scale of the rally that we saw at the start of last year at the moment.

A trend reversal is unlikely right now. It's easy to correlate very specific time frames with some pattern that happened in the past, and it pretty much means nothing. Most of these predictions don't ever come into fruition, and I think that it's the same with this one.

A full on bull market is probably not going to emerge until mid to late next year, based on the historic price data that we've got on the time it takes for bear markets to recover. We may not even have seen the bottom of this bear market yet, and the recovery is defintiely far away right now.

[Leyss]

As we have repeatedly been convinced before, bitcoin does not lend itself to any technical forecasts. It is quite unpredictable and can begin its decent rise in price at any moment, as it was on the eve of its December rise. Therefore, we expect the rise of the crypto-currency market any day. However, it is most likely that this will happen from the second half of autumn. Given such a long period. stagnation, it can rise earlier, however it will do it slowly, with small and long fluctuations.

[mazdafunsun]

A bit surprised by the amounts of shorts right now, I was thinking that shorts were shaken off by the last squeeze few day back. This couold be a good indicator of rally ahead.   If the rally occurs, i dont believe that it would be a big one . I think that it is too soon to market turn bullish.
In my mind the possibilty of going even lower is still real and the argument for that is percentage of the drop which was seen in DotCom bubble.

[darkangel11]

A bit surprised by the amounts of shorts right now, I was thinking that shorts were shaken off by the last squeeze few day back. This couold be a good indicator of rally ahead.   If the rally occurs, i dont believe that it would be a big one . I think that it is too soon to market turn bullish.
In my mind the possibilty of going even lower is still real and the argument for that is percentage of the drop which was seen in DotCom bubble.

Are you talking about that spike on the 22? That one was faked by Bitmex going into maintenance mode right at that time. Everything went back to normal after that. I suppose there was some insider trading going on and some people knew about the SEC decision right before it came. The fundamentals are still the most important thing and we shouldn't really look at the short term predictions if we aren't actively trading. We won't go much lower because... we are not in a bubble! Like Max Keiser loves to say, bitcoin is the pin.

[BitHodler]

I suppose there was some insider trading going on and some people knew about the SEC decision right before it came.

I don't think traders need any insider information to make them aware of the fact that the SEC will be wiping the floor with all the ETFs. It's known to people with common sense that nothing good will come from the SECs decision.

Currently we've entered a new level of a game called dump before other whales dump in the runup to the SECs decision, and that's what happened. I'm not a trader myself, but I could have made a buck or two with that in mind.

The goal is to have the market remain neutral during ETF decisions and I'm pretty confident we're working towards that now. The last dump was pretty mild and a good indicator that ETF speculation won't be exploitable for ever.

[hatshepsut93]

I don't think that technical analysis is reliable on this highly volatile market, especially when the market is so sensitive to news and rumors. Somehow we bounced to 8k because of the ETF hype and promises of new ATH by the end of this year from multiple people, yet analytically it didn't make any sense, the market should have continued being bearish/stagnant. So, we might or might not get more pumps soon, but when they do happen, they are usually very fast, which might suggest that they are influenced by whales.

[magneto]

History often has a way of repeating itself.

The current price pattern in the bitcoin market is eerily similar to the one observed in the run-up to a major rally that occurred on April 12.

To start with, bitcoin charted a long-tailed candle on Aug. 14, similar to the one seen on Apr. 1, signaling the sell-off from the July 24 high of $8,507 has likely run its course.

Further, the leading cryptocurrency has spent the last seven days trading in a sideways manner around $6,400. Back in April, the cryptocurrency traded around $6,800 in the first 11 days before rising sharply above $8,000 on April 12.

More importantly, during the bitcoin price consolidation of early April, the BTC/USD shorts on Bitfinex jumped more than 44 percent to print a record high of 40,719 and fell sharply on April 12, meaning the big spike in BTC was likely fueled by the unwinding of short positions.

Interestingly, the short positions on Bitfinex currently stand at $38,640 – the highest level April 12 – and are just short of the record high of 40,719, as seen in the chart below.

Read more: https://www.coindesk.com/rally-ahead-bitcoin-is-repeating-price-action-seen-in-april/

Comparing right now to April could be reasonable - but then, April's bull rally really didn't turn out to be anything major.

Prices essentially collapsed again after the $10k resistance proved to be stronger than most people had expected, back in April. So even if this comparison is legitimate, i really doubt that a bull market will come out of such deeply bearish sentimented markets.

Also, we don't know if the support at $6k is going to hold or not. Even though the bottom is pretty much close to the level we're at right now, prices could take a further dip before recovery comes. It's way too early to say that we'll see prices going up, and sentiments shifting to more bullish.