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Author Topic: longforecast.com 2017 vs 2018  (Read 162 times)
hatshepsut93
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August 26, 2018, 04:16:59 PM
 #21

and who knows, maybe the pattern will change, especially if too many people are relying on it, maybe the bull run will start long before the halvening and will end shortly after it.

if too many people start believing in something it can happen. so if people start thinking the next bubble would be in 2020 by the time of halving then it may actually happen only then.
but i don't think that is the case. maybe right now many are believing it that way but as we move forward and get past the ETF slump we may start seeing a very different market and with it a very different market sentiment.

This ETF drama doesn't seem too important in the grand scheme of things, I don't expect either resolution to have a big impact on Bitcoin's price, but I look forward to seeing some new dynamic in Bitcoin's price, so far we mostly had boom/bust cycles with parabolic ATH's. A slow but steady growth could positively affect adoption and in turn reduce volatility even more. So, maybe we won't have any crazy bubbles anymore because Bitcoin is getting more mature and people are realizing that both the FUDers and the mooners were wrong and there are no fundamental reasons for Bitcoin's price to move so fast.

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August 26, 2018, 05:21:36 PM
 #22

This ETF drama doesn't seem too important in the grand scheme of things, I don't expect either resolution to have a big impact on Bitcoin's price, but I look forward to seeing some new dynamic in Bitcoin's price, so far we mostly had boom/bust cycles with parabolic ATH's. A slow but steady growth could positively affect adoption and in turn reduce volatility even more. So, maybe we won't have any crazy bubbles anymore because Bitcoin is getting more mature and people are realizing that both the FUDers and the mooners were wrong and there are no fundamental reasons for Bitcoin's price to move so fast.

I think it's impossible for the boom/bust cycles to be avoided. Price has really powerful psychological effects on people, and this market is very thinly traded. Breaking an ATH and continuing, combined with mainstream media hype? Markets don't usually calm down and go sideways at that point.

Bitcoin has such a low supply (especially available supply on the spot markets) that these periodic spikes in demand naturally turn parabolic. And after the top is in, what goes up must come down. Smiley

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August 26, 2018, 06:08:46 PM
 #23

This is just a forecast but why are many so work out because of it, Well in my opinion people are really getting work up to forecast and the future bitcoin to be holding, and seeing this site may give certain people idea about whats gonna happen or what could come one the value of bitcoin, But I really think it is so sudden to deliberately trust this a 100%, I really think you can sure get a deduction or guide in this site but not an elaborate trust within it.














 

 

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August 26, 2018, 06:52:11 PM
 #24

ETF based on futures will only make bitcoin more derivatives than it is now
It is only financial paradise for speculants nothing good for us
It will be revision of that decision but rather small chance to be approved
But SEC message was in fact positive for CBOE proposal because reason of rejection was not enough legitimate licensed exchange
 


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hatshepsut93
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August 26, 2018, 07:10:58 PM
 #25


I think it's impossible for the boom/bust cycles to be avoided. Price has really powerful psychological effects on people, and this market is very thinly traded. Breaking an ATH and continuing, combined with mainstream media hype? Markets don't usually calm down and go sideways at that point.

Bitcoin has such a low supply (especially available supply on the spot markets) that these periodic spikes in demand naturally turn parabolic. And after the top is in, what goes up must come down. Smiley

Maybe it can't be avoided, but its magnitude can and should decrease, simply because the speculation can't continue forever. The price of Bitcoin has been so volatile because people have different opinions on Bitcoin fundamentals, some say it's useless, others believe it's going to change the world, and this is the fuel for speculation. Take gold for example, it's the opposite of Bitcoin - it's boring, people have figured out all major use-cases long ago, nothing changes in its ecosystem. Eventually Bitcoin will become boring too, protocol improvements will become less frequent, adoption will be slow after reaching certain point, and with because of that there will be no reasons for the price to jump/crash, because Bitcoin will be predictable.

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August 26, 2018, 08:06:16 PM
 #26

Maybe it can't be avoided, but its magnitude can and should decrease, simply because the speculation can't continue forever. The price of Bitcoin has been so volatile because people have different opinions on Bitcoin fundamentals, some say it's useless, others believe it's going to change the world, and this is the fuel for speculation. Take gold for example, it's the opposite of Bitcoin - it's boring, people have figured out all major use-cases long ago, nothing changes in its ecosystem. Eventually Bitcoin will become boring too, protocol improvements will become less frequent, adoption will be slow after reaching certain point, and with because of that there will be no reasons for the price to jump/crash, because Bitcoin will be predictable.

ah, but even gold can be highly volatile. that was a 600-700% increase we saw during the '01-'11 bull run! as a trader, that's a hell of a trend to ride. maybe not quite bitcoin-level volatility, but definitely not boring either. the crash saw a nearly 50% drop from the ATH as well.

it's interesting to ponder---how the price trajectory should or will look. it's incredibly speculative, and more than that, there are no comparable assets to study. we often see comparisons to adoption curves (like the internet or cell phones), but no technology ever incorporated a native currency with a predictable, limited supply. it's a totally novel thing that we have no historical comparison for.

hatshepsut93
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August 27, 2018, 02:23:14 AM
 #27


ah, but even gold can be highly volatile. that was a 600-700% increase we saw during the '01-'11 bull run! as a trader, that's a hell of a trend to ride. maybe not quite bitcoin-level volatility, but definitely not boring either. the crash saw a nearly 50% drop from the ATH as well.

it's interesting to ponder---how the price trajectory should or will look. it's incredibly speculative, and more than that, there are no comparable assets to study. we often see comparisons to adoption curves (like the internet or cell phones), but no technology ever incorporated a native currency with a predictable, limited supply. it's a totally novel thing that we have no historical comparison for.

I totally agree with your point that any comparison of Bitcoin with anything else is quite inaccurate because of Bitcoin's key properties, but I think it shouldn't contradict my main point that in the long run volatility will decrease and we won't see instant 10-20% price changes as well as bull runs/crashes as often as we see them now. As an example, in the next 10-15 years most countries should make up their mind about BTC, so there shouldn't be any reasons for panics that we experience now (China ban, ETF rejection).

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