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Question: What should we do with our Q1/Q2 Neptune orders?  (Voting closed: March 08, 2014, 03:02:57 AM)
Continue to wait. (up to +4 more months) - 14 (51.9%)
Get a refund from KnCMiner in USD, convert to BTC and send refunds to share holders. - 13 (48.1%)
Total Voters: 27

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Chef Ramsay
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March 06, 2014, 05:43:24 PM
 #21

Anybody catch the latest here? I think this is for the Neptunes tho I could be wrong. https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-78

Quote
KnC Announce ‘Tape out’ of the World’s first 20nm ASIC for Bitcoin Mining
 
STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN — March 5, 2014 –– KnC, the most trusted brand in Bitcoin Mining is announcing they
have completed ‘tape out’ of their new ASIC. This is the world’s first Bitcoin Mining Application Specific
Integrated Circuit (ASIC) designed using ground breaking 20 nanometer engineering. This important
milestone was achieved only 3 months after starting the project, during February 2014.
 
KnC partnered with Alchip and its representative, Advanced Semiconductors Technology (AST), to deliver
this advanced 20nm technology ASIC. This tapeout is the 2nd generation of the bitcoin mining ASIC following
the success of the 1st, which was delivered in a record time of 3.5 months.
 
This new KnC20nm chip will reduce power consumption of Bitcoin Mining by 43% when compared with the
previous generation. In addition, innovations in the design of the communications circuitry allow for 1440
cores, in a 55x55mm package.
 
Marcus Erlandson, KnC CTO, is immensely proud of the teams performance, “The combined efforts of KnC
and our partners Alchip means that once again we are bringing to market a world first silicon design and in
record time.”
 
Johnny Shen, President of Alchip. “KnC and Alchip have been working together on Bitcoin ASIC design for
less than 12 months and in that time we’ve already delivered 2 world-first projects. Collaboration is the key
here and the close working relationship between our teams is the secret to our success”
That's like ~4-5 TH each
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Koops
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March 09, 2014, 11:09:10 AM
 #22

Anybody catch the latest here? I think this is for the Neptunes tho I could be wrong. https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-78

Quote
KnC Announce ‘Tape out’ of the World’s first 20nm ASIC for Bitcoin Mining
 
STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN — March 5, 2014 –– KnC, the most trusted brand in Bitcoin Mining is announcing they
have completed ‘tape out’ of their new ASIC. This is the world’s first Bitcoin Mining Application Specific
Integrated Circuit (ASIC) designed using ground breaking 20 nanometer engineering. This important
milestone was achieved only 3 months after starting the project, during February 2014.
 

Yeah neptunes.

So the question is how long before shipping actual miners now. Another user posted that tape out to shipping time was about 2 months for the jupiters. So would it be fair, even optimistic to estimate early May ?

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMining/comments/1zn0n3/knc_neptune_20nm_miners_completes_tape_out/cfvup77
vleroybrown
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March 10, 2014, 03:42:06 AM
 #23

So no word about the hosted miner deal, to cover investors in the Neptunes?
Ramhound
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March 11, 2014, 11:18:20 AM
 #24

I vote to stay the course.

I have a single share.
di0nysus
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March 11, 2014, 06:47:46 PM
 #25

2 shares - stay the course
vleroybrown
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March 11, 2014, 08:37:41 PM
 #26

Thanks for everyones input again.

Well, now the polls are showing a 50/50 (instead of 70% stay, 30% refund).

Emails and PMs on other communications are about 60% refund, 40% stay..

Still very close.

I will run another (and most likely last) poll on April 1st (First day of Q2) and revisit both options again. If refund option passes the ~75% majority mark, I will most likely consider that option in the future.

Thanks everyone!

Is there anyway to directly notify all shareholders on the next vote?  I missed the start of this one and would like to voice my 8 shares worth.
HambreDave
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March 12, 2014, 01:48:06 AM
 #27

Is there a way to make the vote a little more "official"? Anyone on the bitcointalk forum can vote on the poll and the poll doesn't represent number of shares. I only have two but I know others with more who might deserve a bigger input.
Undef
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March 12, 2014, 05:02:09 AM
 #28

Well, now the polls are showing a 50/50 (instead of 70% stay, 30% refund).

Emails and PMs on other communications are about 60% refund, 40% stay..

And yet the posts in this very thread, counting the number of shares, are 77% stay the course. 

34 shares plus "a few" and one unknown said "Stay," while 10 shares and two unknowns said "refund."

Waldo, you seem pretty biased toward a refund.  What's going on?

So, two questions:

1) Are you, in fact, trying to convince us to ask for a refund?

2) Why must this be all-or-nothing?  You ordered these in separate orders, so you can ask for refunds on separate orders, yes?  When you have enough "refund" shares to equal the last order you placed, get it refunded.  Move everyone else into the vacated shares and move on.

If you want out, electricity costs me about 40% of the rate you've posted.  If you want out, I'm confident we can find someone else to collect the management fee and continue to support the bitcoin network...  Let's work together on this.  I'm willing to help, and I don't want to reduce my bitcoin earning potential to zero just because the USD/Bitcoin price has fallen and a few people are impatient.

Undef

P.S. The original statement, "we haven't heard anything from KNC," is no longer true.  We now know exactly where they are in the process, and they are exactly on schedule.  What is the motivation for refunds now?
spazzcat
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March 12, 2014, 10:17:44 AM
 #29

Well, now the polls are showing a 50/50 (instead of 70% stay, 30% refund).

...

P.S. The original statement, "we haven't heard anything from KNC," is no longer true.  We now know exactly where they are in the process, and they are exactly on schedule.  What is the motivation for refunds now?


I don't believe we can come close to getting ROI now that the units are so late. March was supposed to be the latest we get these, now we are thinking May...
KyrosKrane
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March 12, 2014, 03:35:36 PM
 #30

Well, now the polls are showing a 50/50 (instead of 70% stay, 30% refund).

...

P.S. The original statement, "we haven't heard anything from KNC," is no longer true.  We now know exactly where they are in the process, and they are exactly on schedule.  What is the motivation for refunds now?


I don't believe we can come close to getting ROI now that the units are so late. March was supposed to be the latest we get these, now we are thinking May...
The Neptune was originally advertised (and is still advertised, I believe, though I haven't checked) as Q1/Q2, which means it's still on schedule as late as end of June.  (In fact, that huge date range was precisely what stopped me from buying one myself.) Everyone hoped it would be in Q1, but that was never promised; and anyone who absolutely relied on end of March as a target date was fooling themselves.

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Undef
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March 13, 2014, 05:01:56 AM
 #31

Perfectly fair.  Thanks for the thoughtful response.
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March 14, 2014, 10:56:25 AM
 #32

If there was an effective way of voting by amount of shares, that might be helpful in determining if one or more units could be refunded if that is indeed a possibility.

I would like to repeat my stance as refund. The way things are looking is that we wont get them Q1 and the shares i bought were for a Q1 shipped miner.

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murt9000
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March 15, 2014, 12:07:51 PM
 #33

Undef, Waldo is right. There is absolutely no chance of ROI on the Neptunes now, even if they arrived a month from today, and they won't. I'm really surprised at the amount of shareholders who still prefer to wait it out. If you take the time to assess the rate of increase of difficulty and the price of Bitcoin over the past 6 months, you will not be able to forecast exactly what the ROI will be but you can reasonable assume that the Neptunes will be unprofitable somewhere between 2 weeks to 2 months from the start of mining.

It doesn't matter how many shares you have, you will not mine the same amount of Bitcoin that you originally paid for your shares within that window of profitability.

It doesn't matter if mining is a speculative endeavor for you, not based on todays Bitcoin price but on the future price. The speculation would be more profitable if you got your original funding back in Bitcoin, or as close as possible to it.

I can't see what the motivation is to stay the course. I would love for this to be a profitable venture but as I stated around a month ago on this thread, that ship sailed long ago unfortunately.

Murt9000
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March 15, 2014, 01:30:33 PM
 #34

Undef, Waldo is right. There is absolutely no chance of ROI on the Neptunes now, even if they arrived a month from today, and they won't. I'm really surprised at the amount of shareholders who still prefer to wait it out. If you take the time to assess the rate of increase of difficulty and the price of Bitcoin over the past 6 months, you will not be able to forecast exactly what the ROI will be but you can reasonable assume that the Neptunes will be unprofitable somewhere between 2 weeks to 2 months from the start of mining.

It doesn't matter how many shares you have, you will not mine the same amount of Bitcoin that you originally paid for your shares within that window of profitability.

It doesn't matter if mining is a speculative endeavor for you, not based on todays Bitcoin price but on the future price. The speculation would be more profitable if you got your original funding back in Bitcoin, or as close as possible to it.

I can't see what the motivation is to stay the course. I would love for this to be a profitable venture but as I stated around a month ago on this thread, that ship sailed long ago unfortunately.

Murt9000
Ok after reading this I also wanna go for a refund. Holding 8 shares. However didn't we buy the miner when BTC was around $1000? So if we get the refund in USD it would leave us with extra BTC? Or not?

 

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Chef Ramsay
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March 15, 2014, 05:11:56 PM
 #35

I, too, was thinking along the lines of getting the miner during Q1 and was for waiting it out. After looking at the big picture here, it does seem more realistic to cash out now and move on. Got 8 shares fwiw.
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March 15, 2014, 05:42:03 PM
 #36

I only have two shares but I vote that we get ou while we can still get most of our btc back.
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March 16, 2014, 05:33:27 PM
 #37

Isn't it possible to refund some miners and keep some?

 

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Get Free Bitcoin Now!
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Undef
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March 19, 2014, 05:38:29 AM
 #38


It doesn't matter if mining is a speculative endeavor for you, not based on todays Bitcoin price but on the future price. The speculation would be more profitable if you got your original funding back in Bitcoin, or as close as possible to it.


Murt,

You may be missing my entire point.  I am not a speculator.  My goal is not to have some coins sitting in my wallet.  My goal is to participate in the bitcoin network, and have a powerful miner working on my behalf, 24/7 for a long time.  If all I wanted was some coin to hold, I would never have bought into an ASIC group buy at all.

Please don't speculate with my coin.  And that's what you (you all asking to bail out of these miners) are doing.  Had the BTC price risen, this thread would not even exist.  So, the only reason you want this is because of price speculation.  "Let's buy some coin now, with a refund, and hope the price goes back up."

And when you say "absolutely no chance of ROI," let's talk about that.  Are you familiar with the BFL Singles?  Do you think there is any ROI on those now?

In fact, I have one (technically, two Little Singles) sitting here right now, mining away (and I was a late purchaser).  They netted me over $150 in the last 30 days.  You know what it costs me to run them?  A few bucks in electricity.  They will give me "ROI" for quite a long time to come.

I understand the speculator mindset.  You put X number of coins into the group buy, and now that the USD/BTC price has fallen, you might get back almost that many coins immediately.  But you would then be out of the bitcoin mining industry altogether.  You'd have some coins in your wallet, but no way to get any more, except through an outlay of fiat.

I don't want to be out of the bitcoin mining industry.  Frankly, I don't believe the whole "no chance of ROI," unless Waldo decides to shut the miners off long before the electricity costs more than the coin.

P.S.
Would you do me, and those of us who want to stay, a favor?  Please encourage Waldo to let those who want to stay, stay.  I, and others, have asked if he would refund some of the machines, and let the rest go into production.  But he won't even answer that request.  This is so stressful for me, because people I don't know, and with whom I politely disagree, are trying to make an adverse decision that doesn't even need to affect me.  I want you to get what you want; but I don't want to get f****d out of my participation in the network by the speculators.

Please help Waldo do the right thing for all of his shareholders, not just those who want out.
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March 19, 2014, 05:40:59 AM
 #39

Isn't it possible to refund some miners and keep some?

Waldo?

Please?
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March 21, 2014, 07:05:57 PM
 #40


It doesn't matter if mining is a speculative endeavor for you, not based on todays Bitcoin price but on the future price. The speculation would be more profitable if you got your original funding back in Bitcoin, or as close as possible to it.


Murt,

You may be missing my entire point.  I am not a speculator.  My goal is not to have some coins sitting in my wallet.  My goal is to participate in the bitcoin network, and have a powerful miner working on my behalf, 24/7 for a long time.  If all I wanted was some coin to hold, I would never have bought into an ASIC group buy at all.

Please don't speculate with my coin.  And that's what you (you all asking to bail out of these miners) are doing.  Had the BTC price risen, this thread would not even exist.  So, the only reason you want this is because of price speculation.  "Let's buy some coin now, with a refund, and hope the price goes back up."

And when you say "absolutely no chance of ROI," let's talk about that.  Are you familiar with the BFL Singles?  Do you think there is any ROI on those now?

In fact, I have one (technically, two Little Singles) sitting here right now, mining away (and I was a late purchaser).  They netted me over $150 in the last 30 days.  You know what it costs me to run them?  A few bucks in electricity.  They will give me "ROI" for quite a long time to come.

I understand the speculator mindset.  You put X number of coins into the group buy, and now that the USD/BTC price has fallen, you might get back almost that many coins immediately.  But you would then be out of the bitcoin mining industry altogether.  You'd have some coins in your wallet, but no way to get any more, except through an outlay of fiat.

I don't want to be out of the bitcoin mining industry.  Frankly, I don't believe the whole "no chance of ROI," unless Waldo decides to shut the miners off long before the electricity costs more than the coin.

P.S.
Would you do me, and those of us who want to stay, a favor?  Please encourage Waldo to let those who want to stay, stay.  I, and others, have asked if he would refund some of the machines, and let the rest go into production.  But he won't even answer that request.  This is so stressful for me, because people I don't know, and with whom I politely disagree, are trying to make an adverse decision that doesn't even need to affect me.  I want you to get what you want; but I don't want to get f****d out of my participation in the network by the speculators.

Please help Waldo do the right thing for all of his shareholders, not just those who want out.

Hi Undef, I'm not speculating with your coin. I'm speculating with my investment. The Neptunes do not belong to you. You just own shares like me and we are both equally entitled to voice our opinion.

I did not ask anyone to do anything. If you review my comment you will be man enough to admit that your accusation is groundless. I said that I don't understand the motivation of those that wish to stay the course but I didn't ask anyone to take any course of action.

I do share one element of your motivation, as I think most of us do here. We all want to see Bitcoin prosper. We all want to support the protocol. Where we diverge is that I don't want to do it at my personal expense. If I make a financial loss in the process then for me the investment has not been successful whereas for you it's still a successful investment because of your love of mining. I respect your perspective, commend you for it and wish you luck with it but to be honest I don't really get it. I would hazard a guess that most investors are mining for profit rather than love but maybe I'm in the minority.

Previous mining success or failure on hardware that is already operational with known specifications and efficiency on past prices and network difficulty is all utterly irrelevant. I have had several successful mining ventures since Q2 2012 but none  of that is relevant to this thread. Replace all those known factors with mostly unknown variables and you will be returning to point. I never claimed that none of us have made profitable investments in the past.

I may not have asked anyone to do anything in my comment but you have rather presumptuously and inappropriately asked me to lobby Waldo's customers on your behalf. Consider your request noted and summarily rejected.

If I was to encourage readers of this thread to take any action it would be to disregard our conversation and do their own homework. Don't listen to individual opinions about whether this might be a successful venture or not. Find a good mining profitability calculator that handles exponential network difficulty and price changes and run your own simulations taking into account what you believe to be the most optimistic, most pessimistic and most realistic sets of variables. Then calculate your own forecast by applying the results of those 3 simulations to the PERT formula (O + 4M + P) ÷ 6.

If you do this you will have your own forecast based on variables that you know and understand and you will have a much better understanding of the probability of ROI on this investment.

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