I'll share some of my findings with Pinnacle closing odds

[reactorjuno]

Hi folks,

This is a work I did back in July 2015 and that took me 2 days  to complete (yeah I am slow but I had to use www.oddsportal.com and enter all the bets manually in an Excel sheet).

So I read several times that Pinnacle closing odds are very accurate to real probabilities, and therefore if you manage to beat Pinnacle closing odds, you will win. The issue is that you need to beat them by circa 5% I think.

So here are my findings:

For some reason (and since I am a huge tennis fan) I selected only tennis matches on the Over/Under games (for instance Over 22.5 games), and I took a total of 1184 matches ( my eyes were starting to feel sore ).
 
There is clearly a correlation between the odds you manage to get at the moment of your bet, the closing odds, and your overall results, it is undeniable. Here are the results:
 
Out of 1184 rough matches taken at random, sometimes the odds drop and sometimes the odds go up, makes sense.
In the end on average I found a 0.67% downward gap between the opening and closing odds, I think it's not illogical because the average bettor tends to bet more on the "over games" (we see less bettors bet on the under):
 
With flat stakes of 100 euros:
Opening odds: -1385 € (ROI -1.17%); closing odds: -2580 € (ROI -2.18%)
 
Subsequently I wanted to do the opposite test to my approach that is to see the results if we bet on odds lower than the closing odds (when the odds went up after I placed my bet, which I personally hate  )
 
So I had to delete random games among those whose odds had dropped so that I ended up with a bigger average spread between opening odds and closing odds.
 
I ended up with 880 games and an average increase of + 4.21%, which is not good! It means you placed your bet at 2.00 but later on these odds were available at 2.04 (at the start of the match)...
 
Results on these 880 games with flat stakes of 100 euros:
Opening odds: -4150 € (ROI -4.71%); closing odds: -2986 € (ROI -3.39%)
 
Makes perfect sense again, we are in the case of a bad punter who place his bets at the worst time.
 
 
In the same way, the case that we all want to see is the good bettor who knows how to place bets before the odds drop.
Same work here from me, I deleted random matches among those whose odds had gone up.
We end up with 880 matches and an average drop of -4.74%!
It's like you bet on odds of 2.00 when the closing Pinnacle odds is circa 1.952.
 
Results:
Opening odds: + 1615 € (ROI 1.84%); closing odds: -854 € (ROI -1%)
 
 
For your information, the average odds were 1.93.
Players I selected: all kinds of players really, the big servers, Isner, Karlovic, Raonic, Cilic, clay players Andujar, Sousa, Klizan, etc. (about 50 different players).
 
 
In the end a 880 matches sample may seem small but what is interesting here is the trend, in any case it clearly confirms the articles that you can find on this topic, which state Pinnacle closing odds is very accurate. Beat this line on a constant basis and you'll win (not easy to do though!)


PS: you also can see that the ROI found is under 2% which means it's just hard to make money on sharp bookmakers such as Pinnacle. Difficult but not impossible... you'll need the experience.

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[SyGambler]

glad to see some deep stats and discussions here in the gambling section , it's been a long time since I saw people posting stats and personal experiences
hope you keep posting relative topics in the future , the forum is lacking these kind of topics

[reactorjuno]

No worries mate. That's what I noticed in general, not many bettors are willing to investigate more deeply into numbers but we have to be honest, many of us are casual bettors too. Took me a while to understand sports betting (3 years), it really takes experience (and losses  ) to get better at it.
Back on topic, the thing to do then is to have www.oddsportal.com open, and check Pinnacle price. That's usually what I do when I try to trade offplay at Betfair. For example Back @ 1.30 and Lay @ 1.27, that seems like small variation but if you bet 4 figures you can get nice earnings like this... but yeah of course it takes experience.

And about Pinnacle closing odds, I believe it's quite easy to beat them with 1xbet or Marathonbet. I won't recommend the former though as there are many accusations of scam towards this Russian bookmaker. Marathonbet was originally Russian but was bought by a UK company I think so it should be reliable.

[damir10]

It is impossible to play long time on Marathonbet. They limited me after i reach over +2500€ Profit. My Major league limit is at around 10-15€. Basically, they tell me we don't want you..

[reactorjuno]

It is impossible to play long time on Marathonbet. They limited me after i reach over +2500€ Profit. My Major league limit is at around 10-15€. Basically, they tell me we don't want you..

Yes Marathon are quite well known for that, but at least they don't steal your money.  Read this > https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/sportsbooks-industry/3484144-1xbet-stole-all-money-i-had-my-account.html
Bet365 will also limit you after circa 2000 or 3000 EUR profit.

[damir10]

1xbet is the biggest scam in betting industry.

Do you follow any system regarding to Pinnacle odds ?

[reactorjuno]

1xbet is the biggest scam in betting industry.

Do you follow any system regarding to Pinnacle odds ?

No I don't. I guess some bettors use bots and connect to Pinnacle API (I am not too familiar with this). I do this manually. I noticed when Pinnacle open the odds, sometimes a value can last for only 1 minute or 2 after the market has been opened, so you need to be fast. That's also why Pinnacle only allow stakes of circa 400 to 500 EUR on the first minutes a markets is opened, they know their odds can be wrong and that it will be corrected quickly by experienced punters.

[damir10]

1xbet is the biggest scam in betting industry.

Do you follow any system regarding to Pinnacle odds ?

No I don't. I guess some bettors use bots and connect to Pinnacle API (I am not too familiar with this). I do this manually. I noticed when Pinnacle open the odds, sometimes a value can last for only 1 minute or 2 after the market has been opened, so you need to be fast. That's also why Pinnacle only allow stakes of circa 400 to 500 EUR on the first minutes a markets is opened, they know their odds can be wrong and that it will be corrected quickly by experienced punters.

True. I do have connection via Pinnacle API I use a system regarding to quick odds dropping on Pinnacle. Then check other bookies or my local bookie ( usually react very late) , I place my bet. It shows good success but i can not spend my time 24 hours in front of computer. I check it whenever i have time.

By the way, I will re-active my forum thread for my 2 different system. 1- European Football Picks , 2- Half Time Goal System. Later, if people show interest i can open another thread for games regarding to Pinnacle closing odds + dropping odds. If you are interested and knowledge, we can follow together.

[buwaytress]

glad to see some deep stats and discussions here in the gambling section , it's been a long time since I saw people posting stats and personal experiences
hope you keep posting relative topics in the future , the forum is lacking these kind of topics

Thanks SyG for pointing this out, and thank you OP for starting this. I use BitcoinRush Sportsbook (which Sy helpfully informed is actually based off Pinnacle odds) and I find that even delaying my bets by over a minute forces me to refresh odds and bet again, and there's always a 0.04 points differents or thereabouts on my odds (which often are around 2)... so yes, that's a huge percentage difference. Have I changed my mind about the bet when the points go down? YES, if it's not a bet I wanted to make anyway! Esp because with parlays 3 games bump it up to almost 0.1.

I'll be the first to say I'm just a casual gambler at the end of the day, every time I manage to stick to a period of disciplined betting on good odds, I screw myself by going risky on big game football. But interesting stats, maybe it might encourage me to do simple record keeping myself on closings.

[reactorjuno]

glad to see some deep stats and discussions here in the gambling section , it's been a long time since I saw people posting stats and personal experiences
hope you keep posting relative topics in the future , the forum is lacking these kind of topics

Thanks SyG for pointing this out, and thank you OP for starting this. I use BitcoinRush Sportsbook (which Sy helpfully informed is actually based off Pinnacle odds) and I find that even delaying my bets by over a minute forces me to refresh odds and bet again, and there's always a 0.04 points differents or thereabouts on my odds (which often are around 2)... so yes, that's a huge percentage difference. Have I changed my mind about the bet when the points go down? YES, if it's not a bet I wanted to make anyway! Esp because with parlays 3 games bump it up to almost 0.1.

I'll be the first to say I'm just a casual gambler at the end of the day, every time I manage to stick to a period of disciplined betting on good odds, I screw myself by going risky on big game football. But interesting stats, maybe it might encourage me to do simple record keeping myself on closings.

I see, sadly many bookmakers allowing to bet in bitcoin take Pinnacle odds but adds an extra margin. I think Fairlay do that, and I am pretty sure Nitrogen use all Pinnacle markets but decrease the odds a little which makes it tough to win long term.

I may start a topic someday to record bets and see if it's possible to beat Pinnacle closing odds on a regular basis.

[buwaytress]

I see, sadly many bookmakers allowing to bet in bitcoin take Pinnacle odds but adds an extra margin. I think Fairlay do that, and I am pretty sure Nitrogen use all Pinnacle markets but decrease the odds a little which makes it tough to win long term.

I may start a topic someday to record bets and see if it's possible to beat Pinnacle closing odds on a regular basis.

I imagine it gets worse still if/when these bookies feed off Pinnacle API and then further distribute their own APIs... and then bookies even further down the stream take even more margins. Fairlay's always a bit complicated for me, it wasn't like when they first started out and you'd find every punter opening up some thread on arbitrage. Nitrogen's odds are consistently lower than my bookie, so I think you're right, but then they do have that tiered bonus for multi parlays - difficult to win them anyway and I suspect based on my own tendency to parlay, they make a lot more from people taking the added (unnecessary) risk.

Beating those closing odds consistently is the key... but for us Sunday bettors, maybe not worth the investment of time! Good luck if you try.

[reactorjuno]

I see, sadly many bookmakers allowing to bet in bitcoin take Pinnacle odds but adds an extra margin. I think Fairlay do that, and I am pretty sure Nitrogen use all Pinnacle markets but decrease the odds a little which makes it tough to win long term.

I may start a topic someday to record bets and see if it's possible to beat Pinnacle closing odds on a regular basis.

I imagine it gets worse still if/when these bookies feed off Pinnacle API and then further distribute their own APIs... and then bookies even further down the stream take even more margins. Fairlay's always a bit complicated for me, it wasn't like when they first started out and you'd find every punter opening up some thread on arbitrage. Nitrogen's odds are consistently lower than my bookie, so I think you're right, but then they do have that tiered bonus for multi parlays - difficult to win them anyway and I suspect based on my own tendency to parlay, they make a lot more from people taking the added (unnecessary) risk.

Beating those closing odds consistently is the key... but for us Sunday bettors, maybe not worth the investment of time! Good luck if you try.

Fairlay is some kind of fake betting exchange to me, sure I think there is the option of creating your own market, but I never really had the patience to experiment that. What I like with them though is the possibility to bet on Bitcoin price, that's where one can possibly finds values, if I had to I would probably bet on Bitcoin to get lower to $5,500 in September, simply because many bettors would like to bet on Bitcoin to go up.

But Fairlay odds on sports are still a bit better and therefore more interesting than Nitrogen.

Why I say Fairley is a fake betting exchange, well it's because of the gap between Back odds and Lay odds, it's similar to Matchbook, for me a real Betting Exchange should allow you to Back X @ 1.50 and Lay X @ 1.51, but usually on Fairlay (and Matchbook), it will be 1.50 / 1.55 or such. They simply take the odds of the opposite bet on Pinnacle and reverse it (for example a Back bet @ 3.00 becomes a Lay bet @ 1.50, a Back bet @ 2.25 becomes a Lay bet @ 1.80, etc).

[avs_kz]

1xbet is the biggest scam in betting industry.

Do you follow any system regarding to Pinnacle odds ?

No I don't. I guess some bettors use bots and connect to Pinnacle API (I am not too familiar with this). I do this manually. I noticed when Pinnacle open the odds, sometimes a value can last for only 1 minute or 2 after the market has been opened, so you need to be fast. That's also why Pinnacle only allow stakes of circa 400 to 500 EUR on the first minutes a markets is opened, they know their odds can be wrong and that it will be corrected quickly by experienced punters.

True. I do have connection via Pinnacle API I use a system regarding to quick odds dropping on Pinnacle. Then check other bookies or my local bookie ( usually react very late) , I place my bet. It shows good success but i can not spend my time 24 hours in front of computer. I check it whenever i have time.

By the way, I will re-active my forum thread for my 2 different system. 1- European Football Picks , 2- Half Time Goal System. Later, if people show interest i can open another thread for games regarding to Pinnacle closing odds + dropping odds. If you are interested and knowledge, we can follow together.

Where is your forum thread?