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Author Topic: Spike finished, going back to 2  (Read 4603 times)
BTCurious
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October 27, 2011, 04:34:59 PM
 #21

It almost seems like some fairly big player(s) are sucking up BTC after a period of backfill.  Maybe they are playing the market and will dump at higher prices, but I could also imagine them sitting on their positions for the same reasons I sit on mine.
So basically, you know that you know nothing Smiley

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October 27, 2011, 04:36:34 PM
 #22

Seems like the last three big spikes (i.e. 10k -15k BTC within an hour or so) have resulted in higher prices.  My sense is that the numbers of BTC acquired during these periods at least covers the native inflation of Bitcoin, and BTC has been raising in value since this started to occur.

It almost seems like some fairly big player(s) are sucking up BTC after a period of backfill.  Maybe they are playing the market and will dump at higher prices, but I could also imagine them sitting on their positions for the same reasons I sit on mine.

No it's just the fact that if you have sufficient volume on mtgox you can suck them up once your pump has taken grip and dump them shortly after. Just wait.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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October 27, 2011, 04:41:18 PM
 #23

It almost seems like some fairly big player(s) are sucking up BTC after a period of backfill.  Maybe they are playing the market and will dump at higher prices, but I could also imagine them sitting on their positions for the same reasons I sit on mine.
So basically, you know that you know nothing Smiley

This is very much the case, and I am happy to clarify that if there was anyone who was confused here.

I personally tend to write off anyone who does 'know' something pretty quickly and rarely regret doing so.

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October 27, 2011, 04:45:36 PM
 #24

This is very much the case, and I am happy to clarify that if there was anyone who was confused here.

I personally tend to write off anyone who does 'know' something pretty quickly and rarely regret doing so.
Fair enough Smiley It's funny to look at this bitcoinbullbear guy's site, and analyse what he actually predicted, and how much of it came (/didn't come) true. Basically, he's just good at looking back at his previous post, and wording things such, that it sounds like he predicted whatever happened. Does anyone actually have a subscription to his "short term alert" service? (I wouldn't pay a satoshi for it, but I'm wondering if it is actually of any use.)

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October 27, 2011, 05:49:14 PM
 #25

yeah its funny, keep watching.

its not funny if you're short Zhoutonged.
No kidding, tell me about it.  Went short after a big spike yesterday and now I'm screwed Zhoutonged.  I've stayed away from Bitcoinica for a long time cuz the same thing happened to me last time dangit!
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October 27, 2011, 06:17:09 PM
 #26

yeah its funny, keep watching.

its not funny if you're short Zhoutonged.
No kidding, tell me about it.  Went short after a big spike yesterday and now I'm screwed Zhoutonged.  I've stayed away from Bitcoinica for a long time cuz the same thing happened to me last time dangit!

I've not used Bitcoinica (yet), but could you not just keep adding funds to your maintenance account?

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October 27, 2011, 06:19:00 PM
 #27

Being liquidated means he's already forced to sell buy back his borrowed bitcoins at a higher price, so he already lost a lot of money. If he had seen this coming, he could indeed have added funds beforehand.

Edit: oops, thanks for the correction

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October 27, 2011, 06:34:40 PM
 #28

Being liquidated means he's already forced to sell buy back his borrowed bitcoins at a higher price, so he already lost a lot of money. If he had seen this coming, he could indeed have added funds beforehand.
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October 27, 2011, 06:37:43 PM
 #29

It's my own fault for watching charts every day, seeing a spike up and predicting another plunge down like it has been doing over and over.  It's just funny to call it getting Zhoutonged when you go short and you screw up.
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October 27, 2011, 06:38:41 PM
 #30

Anyone look at bitcoincharts recently?  Look at all those nice high, green volumes!  Looks like it's April all over again!

(BFL)^2 < 0
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October 27, 2011, 06:40:59 PM
 #31

Thanks cypherdoc, that's indeed what I meant/should've written Smiley

Anyone look at bitcoincharts recently?  Look at all those nice high, green volumes!  Looks like it's April all over again!
I usually just watch the mtgox ticker. Most other exchanges follow that anyway.

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October 27, 2011, 06:42:59 PM
 #32

Anyone look at bitcoincharts recently?  Look at all those nice high, green volumes!  Looks like it's April all over again!


nope can't see it.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
BTCurious
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October 27, 2011, 06:49:10 PM
 #33

Let me help you with that.


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October 27, 2011, 06:52:18 PM
 #34

Being liquidated means he's already forced to sell buy back his borrowed bitcoins at a higher price, so he already lost a lot of money. If he had seen this coming, he could indeed have added funds beforehand.

Edit: oops, thanks for the correction

It does not seem that the price has gone up so much and so fast that someone would get margin call unless they choose to be liquidated (or are woefully under-capitalized.)  Seems like most traders in this environment would just keep adding to their maintenance account to avoid this until things turn around.  That would be the smart move.  Right?

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October 27, 2011, 06:56:47 PM
 #35

It does not seem that the price has gone up so much and so fast that someone would get margin call unless they choose to be liquidated (or are woefully under-capitalized.)  Seems like most traders in this environment would just keep adding to their maintenance account to avoid this until things turn around.  That would be the smart move.  Right?
If they thought the market would be going down later, the smart thing is to add to their maintenance.
If they thought the market would only go up, the smart thing is to buy back as soon as possible (actually, as low as possible).

If a large spike caught them by surprise, they wouldn't do the smart thing. They'd be liquidated.

There's a lot of traders which are relatively new to things, so can get caught by surprise. I've also seen reports of being confused by the user interface, and being screwed by not taking into account the site's delay relative to mtgox. There have also been problems with system stalls and errors, but it seems they get treated properly by the owner.

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October 27, 2011, 07:03:55 PM
 #36

...
Seems like most traders in this environment would just keep adding to their maintenance account to avoid this until things turn around.  That would be the smart move.  Right?

If they thought the market would be going down later, the smart thing is to add to their maintenance.
...

Given that Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme in it's death throes, and so many people 'know' this, it seems like a no-brainer to keep on adding to a maintenance account.

BTCurious
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October 27, 2011, 07:05:49 PM
 #37

Given that Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme in it's death throes, and so many people 'know' this, it seems like a no-brainer to keep on adding to a maintenance account.
People with sufficient foresight, and also convinced of this viewpoint, will be doing exactly that.

Doesn't necessarily mean the viewpoint is correct though.

tvbcof
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October 27, 2011, 07:14:33 PM
 #38

Given that Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme in it's death throes, and so many people 'know' this, it seems like a no-brainer to keep on adding to a maintenance account.
People with sufficient foresight, and also convinced of this viewpoint, will be doing exactly that.

Doesn't necessarily mean the viewpoint is correct though.

On a totally unrelated note, that IS a rather cool address:

  1Ga9Dizn1p6ctGWausC1osLSrXFdioxide

Without consulting a periodic table, I think I see Gallium, Tungsten, Carbon, Strontium and Florine.  And sort of Zink, Gold, Osmium.  I'll have to look for such things in other addresses.

BTCurious
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October 27, 2011, 07:23:45 PM
 #39

Given that Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme in it's death throes, and so many people 'know' this, it seems like a no-brainer to keep on adding to a maintenance account.
People with sufficient foresight, and also convinced of this viewpoint, will be doing exactly that.

Doesn't necessarily mean the viewpoint is correct though.

On a totally unrelated note, that IS a rather cool address:

  1Ga9Dizn1p6ctGWausC1osLSrXFdioxide

Without consulting a periodic table, I think I see Gallium, Tungsten, Carbon, Strontium and Florine.  And sort of Zink, Gold, Osmium.  I'll have to look for such things in other addresses.

Thanks Cheesy
Heh, never looked at it like that. With consulting a periodic table, I get:
1 Gallium 9D (iodine) (zinc) 1 (phosphorus) 6 (carbon) tG Tungsten (gold) (silicon) Carbon 1 (osmium) L Strontium X Fluorine dioxide.
Bracketed ones are with incorrect capitalization.

Too bad no one loves breathing though Tongue The only 0.001 BTC at that address is me testing it, IIRC Tongue

tvbcof
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October 27, 2011, 07:31:46 PM
 #40

On a totally unrelated note, that IS a rather cool address:

  1Ga9Dizn1p6ctGWausC1osLSrXFdioxide

Without consulting a periodic table, I think I see Gallium, Tungsten, Carbon, Strontium and Florine.  And sort of Zink, Gold, Osmium.  I'll have to look for such things in other addresses.

Thanks Cheesy
Heh, never looked at it like that. With consulting a periodic table, I get:
1 Gallium 9D (iodine) (zinc) 1 (phosphorus) 6 (carbon) tG Tungsten (gold) (silicon) Carbon 1 (osmium) L Strontium X Fluorine dioxide.
Bracketed ones are with incorrect capitalization.

Too bad no one loves breathing though Tongue The only 0.001 BTC at that address is me testing it, IIRC Tongue

I've heard that people in Asia will pay an absurd amount of money for phone numbers with 'lucky' numbers and such.

Seems to me that Bitcoin addresses could be generated at a very fast rate.  There's a business opportunity for someone.

I wanted to test out my instawallet thingy so I just sent you a little something.


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