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Author Topic: [FREE GUIDE] 🔥🔥 How to be a Profitable Contrarian Bettor MLB NFL NBA NHL 🔥🔥  (Read 479 times)
CryptoSparks
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August 27, 2018, 01:40:40 AM
Last edit: September 25, 2018, 03:58:57 PM by CryptoSparks
Merited by SyGambler (20), DarkStar_ (4), JanpriX (3), Bolt Brownie (2), stomachgrowls (1), Bitfort (1), morvillz7z (1), N0sferatu (1)
 #1



This guide will provide you all the tools and strategies you need in order to become a profitable contrarian bettor.
Please note that this guide comes from my personal experience accumulated over the last 7 years.
If you follow the rules, i guarantee you will be profitable on the long term and the
best part is that you don’t need to be an expert or even know the teams. You just follow the smart money.

I will try to make the guide as complete and compact as i can, so you have all the info in one place.




Statistics are clear, 90% of bettors lose money on the long term, but this means that those in the 10% left make (big) money.
Those are professional bettors. Most of them are contrarians.


This happens also in the stock & cryptocurrency trading world
, most of successful traders are contrarians. But what exactly is a contrarian ?

If everyone hates a stock (or other investment), that stock will probably be undervalued and will represent a great long-term investment.
Historically, buying “value stocks” has been one of the best methods of investing in the stock market.

Similarly if a certain sport match has the vast majority of the bets on one side, it often means that the masses(the losers in that 90%) are overvaluing that side.
 As a result, there is often “contrarian value” on taking the other side of that bet.
The idea behind this is that the public can be easily brainwashed by the media or by their own feelings for a team and tends to be wrong more often than not.

Contrarian betting has proven to be a profitable strategy in the major US sports.








What if i tell you that the best bettors have a 55-60% winning rate on the long term?
I know that the web is full of prodiges with 90% or more but the funny fact is that:
1. They don’t share the average odd.
2. The don’t share the number of bets.

For example with a 90% win rate at odds 1.10 (-1000) they break even.

So win rate is valueless without the average odd and a big track records.

Our system has a minimum odd of 1.8 (-125.00), but most of times the picks have odds above 2.0(+100).
Let’s make some calculations with an average odd of 2.0 (+100).

Assume the system bets in average 3 events per day, with a winning rate of 60% and average odd of 2 we can estimate the profit:

1 month = 90 events

With 1000$ of initial bankroll we calculate our 3% stake = 30$

60% of 90 events are wins = 54 WINS & 36 LOSS =  18units of profit * stake = 18*30= 540$ ->  first month PROFIT

That is profit worth more than half bank roll! Imagine x1.5 your bank roll every month!
With a 1k$ B.R you could reach 130K$ in one year and 17 MLN $ in 2 years.
This is simply math, the system only needs a 60% winning rate to achieve these numbers.

If you paid attention to the Money Management section, you know that we update that 3% stake every week.
So the actual profit will be even bigger, because the stake increases every week.

With a 50% winning rate, the system breaks even, but most of times can even bring profits
thanks to the high average odds obtained by betting the underdogs (we’re contrarian bettors, remember? )











Ok now we know what Contrarians are and why they make money.

The question is: How do i become a Contrarian Bettor?
It’s easy, you only need 2 things:


1. Good Money Management System
2. Good System to Pick the Games


Let’s analyze both.



Probably someone will disagree, but MM ( Money Management) is more important than actually picking the games.
I cannot emphasize enough how important is that you ALWAYS follow these rules.




1. Bet ONLY 50%-50% events
2. Bet ONLY  odds >= 1.8 (-125.00)
3. Bet ONLY 1 event at the time
4. Bet ONLY 3% of your bank roll on each event.



These are very simple rules, yet you will be tempted to break them.
Don’t ever do that otherwise you will break the system.
 
Let’s explain them briefly:


1. Bet ONLY 50%-50% events.
For example: Under/Over, H2H, Handicap.
Basically if there are more than 2 outcomes for a bet, you STAY AWAY from it.


2. Bet ONLY odds >= 1.8 (-125.00)
This is the easiest rule to break. You might find a perfect bet paying 1.7 (-142) and say to yourself:
 “You know what? I’m gonna put money on this. Is close to my 1.8 (-125.00) limit.”
The worst thing that can happen is that you win that bet. Wait what? Win? YES.
Because then you will break that rule over and over again, and in a long term you will loose money.
Why? Because we’re playing 50%/50% bets. So ideally your risk/reward ratio should be 1:1 ( I bet 1 to win 2 with a profit of 1).
At 1.7 for every win you get paid 30% less than what you statistically deserve.
Those 30% will stack on each other until an unlucky loss sequence will knock you down.  
This is why this rule is important, immagine it as limiting the advantage a bookmaker has over you.
If you really found the perfect bet, wait for the live event and place a live bet as soon as the odd is >= 1.8 (-125.00) .
Also notice that at 1.8 (-125.00) you have a 20% statistic disadvantage, but the system is strong enough to sustain that.
Furthermore the majority of the picks will have odds greater than 2 (+100).


3. Bet ONLY 1 event at the time
This means that you invest in Single Bets, NO PARLAYS.
1 Event = 1 Bet
The reason is always to keep that statistic disadvantage as neutral or positive possible.
1 Event = 50% win Probability
Parlay with 2 Events = 25% win Probability
Parlay with 3 Events = 11% win Probability
Parlay with 4 Events = 6% win Probability
Parlay with 5 Events = 4% win Probability
Parlay with 6 Events = 2.8% win Probability
Parlay with 7 Events = 2.0% win Probability
Parlay with 8 Events = 1.6% win Probability
Parlay with 9 Events = 1.2% win Probability
Parlay with 10 Events = 1.0% win Probability

Do you see where i’m going with this? The vast majority of bettors play parlays tempted by the high payout.
Fact is they will loose most of the time, you can’t escape the math and the bookmaker
knows that and they offer bonuses to tempt poor souls even more. DO NOT PLAY PARLAYS.

This rule doesn’t prevent you from having multiple simultaneous events.
Just keep every event and bet separated.


4. Bet ONLY 3% of your bank roll on each event.

The bank roll is the total amount of money you have available for betting.

This is as easy as important. This rule will keep you alive when an unlucky sequence of losses will eventually hit you.
Remember that you can’t pretend to win 100% of times, a system like this doesn’t exist and never will.
It’s very important that every week you update that 3% according to the current bank roll.
This way is almost impossible to reach bankruptcy.
To go bankrupt with this strategy you would need to loose 33 bets in a row during the week.
Considering that with this system you will bet in average 3 games per day, it’s IMPOSSIBLE to go bankrupt.
If you are the unluckiest person in the world and manage to loose all 21 games in a row,
the following week you will still have 33 bets available because you update your 3% stake according to the new bankroll.
Isn’t that great? No fear of loss.    

Tip: avoid updating the 3% stake value at every bet, you don’t know how wins and losses
will distribute during the week, and this might lead you to loose potential profit.






So this is probably the part you’re most interested to.
And you probably don’t believe that you can be a profitable bettor even
knowing almost 0 about the sport you’re betting but i’ll proof to you that is possible.

Our strategy consist in individuating on which side sharp bettors are and just follow them.


What is a sharp bettor?


A sharp bettor is one that is considered to be a long-term winner in sports betting.  
Generally speaking, sharps are on the right side of a bet, and significantly more often than not, the plays that they make are going to be the right ones.

Sharp bettors are the ones that can move betting lines by themselves, and this is exactly how we can discover on which side they are.
And guess what? Most of the time they are against the public, so in a contrarian position.

Just think about it. If someone puts a LOT of money on the table, he must know something.
That something can be insider information, a statistic study or anything else.
We don’t care what he knows, we care that most of the time he’s right and that we can profit with him.



How to individuate sharp bettors?

We individuate sharp bettors by the footprints they left behind them.
Those footprints are Sharp Moves in the betting line.
Sharp Moves happens when a line moves drastically in one direction.
If that direction is against the public we might have found our bet.




There are several free tools we can use to individuate Sharp Moves.
Here’s a couple:

http://zcodesystem.com/line_reversals
{
Please note that zcodesystem sporadically locks some games forcing you to buy the membership.
You can use the mobile apps to access the betting line chart for every game
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/line-reversals/id604697785?ls=1&mt=8
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.reactor.linereversals
}

https://www.sportsinsights.com/mlb/
https://www.sportsinsights.com/nba/
https://www.sportsinsights.com/nhl/

Now that we have the tools, let’s get our hands dirty.



HOW ZCODESYSTEM WORKS

If you go to http://zcodesystem.com/line_reversals
On top of the page you can find all the supported markets.




Click on Totals Line.

Under the markets you find all the supported sports.
Click on MLB(even though is the default selections when you visit the page)

Below that you see all the available matches.




You can change the date by tapping on the current date near the calendar icon.



To analyze a match just click on it. You will be displayed to something like this:




HOW SPORTSINSIGHTS WORKS

If you go to https://www.sportsinsights.com/mlb/

You will find something similar to this view:



You have the list of games, in order to analyze them you need to click on the “+” button on the left.

The main difference with ZCODESYSTEMS is that SPORTSINSIGHTS doesn’t show the graph for the TOTALS LINE but only the TOTALS VALUE.
You can still identify sharp lines in the UNDER/OVER market when the total value changes(even by 0.5).

I prefer to use ZCODESYSTEMS because the chart is more precise and we can analyze the line movements instead of the TOTAL VALUE.



But let's get to the important part.
As for the Money Management System, we have unbreakable golden rules here too.




1. BET ONLY AGAINST THE PUBLIC
2. BET ONLY IF YOU INDIVIDUATE A SHARP LINE MOVE AGAINST THE PUBLIC
3. BET ONLY IF THE SHARP LINE MOVE OCCURS IN THE LAST HOUR BEFORE THE MATCH’S START
4. BET ONLY IF THE SHARP LINE MOVE IS NOT INVALIDATED BY ANOTHER SHARP MOVE IN THE PUBLIC DIRECTION


1. BET ONLY AGAINST THE PUBLIC
Remember that we are Contrarians Bettors.
This means that we enter a bet only if the % of bets are >= 70% on one side.


2. BET ONLY IF YOU INDIVIDUATE A SHARP LINE MOVE
You can easily identify sharp lines moves in the betting line.
The Sharp Lines Moves we want to individuate are the ones that instantly move the line by at least 0.08 in the direction against the public.
Zcodesystem helps you even more by highlighting the sharp moves with red and green arrows.


3. BET ONLY IF THE SHARP LINE MOVE OCCURS IN THE LAST HOUR BEFORE THE MATCH’S START
This is a key factor. For obvious reasons sharp bettors don’t want to show their intentions.
So they place the bet at the very last minutes before the game starts.
For this reason is important that you track the sharp moves 3-5 minutes before the game’s start or even wait for the game to start and place the bet live.


4. BET ONLY IF THE SHARP LINE MOVE IS NOT INVALIDATED BY ANOTHER SHARP MOVE IN THE PUBLIC DIRECTION
It’s also important to wait the 3-5 minutes before the game’s start in order to track possible Sharp Moves
that go in the Public direction ( so against us).
If that happens, the first move is invalidated and we don’t enter the bet.
This means that there are sharp bettors with different opinions.
Let them fight, we can wait for better signals.
The fallowing is a good example of a battle between Sharp Bettors




A perfect bet must satisfy all 4 golden rules. Not 1, not 2, not 3. All 4.


Let’s make an example with a match played yesterday (August 25th 2018)



Is a MLB match:  New York Yankees @ Baltimore
We’re watching the Over line movement.
On the background we can see the % of bets on the OVER side.
We notice that the % is above our 70% mark, it’s near the 90%. (GOLDEN RULE 1 √)
So the public is heavily betting on Over 9.0.
Next we see that there is 1 big sharp line (from 1.8 to 1.92) followed by a smaller one (1.92 to 2.0) against the Over ( GOLDEN RULE 2 √ )
and that they appear in the last hour before the match starts ( GOLDEN RULE 3 √ ).
Notice there’s a small Sharp Move against the Under ( so in the public direction) but is immediately rejected
with another sharp move against the Over. So the bet is valid (GOLDEN RULE 4 √).

We have all rules respected so we have all reasons to believe that some Sharp Bettor
is putting his big money on Under 9.0.
We follow and bet 3% of our bank roll on Under 9.0 @ 1.95 (-105).

You can see that, SURPRISE SURPRISE, the match ends with 5 - 1 for the Yankees.



The public looses one more time, the bookmaker eats 90% of the bets, and the sharp bettor ( and us ) take the profit.

The best part of this is that we didn’t check any statistic, we didn’t analyzed the starting pitcher or anything else.
I mean you can profit even without knowing what a pitcher is.

If you want to see the other side of the bet, in this case Under, you just have to click on the Under button above the graph.
The graph is basically the first one but flipped.
You can also change the Totals Value in the dropdown menù but is better to stick to the default value.





NOW GO AND TAKE THE BOOKIE'S MONEY!





This guide is a Bitcointalk exclusive. You're allowed to share it, not to sell it.
@CryptoSparks



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September 17, 2018, 09:05:31 AM
 #2

No one interested in Contrarian Betting? I guess you prefer the Crowd Wisdom  Grin Grin

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September 21, 2018, 09:45:56 AM
 #3

That's quite interesting reading there.

I'm not a sports bettor at all but recently signed up with jetwin and received some free credit which can be used only for live events so I'm going to read through your guide and try to apply the findings (have nothing to lose so why not).

Thanks for sharing.


GAMBLING: crypto-games | kingdice | yolodice | bitvest | bitdice | primedice | bitkong | betstreak | bustadice | betking | fortunejack - SPORTSBOOKS: bitcoinrush  | nitrogensports | onehash |  - EXCHANGES: poloniex | bittrex | bitfinex | binance | kraken | bitstamp | hitbtc | coinbase | bitshares | cryptopia | coinexchange RENT a mining rig or LEASE your own at MRR
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September 21, 2018, 10:05:20 AM
Merited by bitcoinmaster44 (5)
 #4

No one interested in Contrarian Betting? I guess you prefer the Crowd Wisdom  Grin Grin

For me your post was so chaotic and visually confusing that it was too hard to even read it.
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September 21, 2018, 06:40:00 PM
 #5

That's quite interesting reading there.

I'm not a sports bettor at all but recently signed up with jetwin and received some free credit which can be used only for live events so I'm going to read through your guide and try to apply the findings (have nothing to lose so why not).

Thanks for sharing.



Remember to follow every rule and you will profit! Good luck and keep us updated !




No one interested in Contrarian Betting? I guess you prefer the Crowd Wisdom  Grin Grin

For me your post was so chaotic and visually confusing that it was too hard to even read it.

There's a lot to tell on the subject and i wanted the guide to be fully complete and for beginners too. I tried my best to divide it in sections so is more practical, i might review it if you have any tips on how to improve it.  Grin

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September 23, 2018, 10:49:19 AM
 #6

That' quite interesting, thanks for sharing.

I only read this once, and I still need to follow through your tutorial about zcodesystem since identifying that sharp bettor moves is a big part of this system. I have one question though. From your experience how hard it is to find at least 1 game per day, that fits all these rules?

There is a competition here in the forum, and I guess I will put it to the test there, but it would be important for me to be able to make at least one bet per day. Do you think this is doable?

By the way, here is the competition I was talking about
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4855219.0

I'm guessing that with this system, plus some prizes (if this works), it will certainly be impossible to lose money.
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September 23, 2018, 11:20:45 AM
 #7

That' quite interesting, thanks for sharing.

I only read this once, and I still need to follow through your tutorial about zcodesystem since identifying that sharp bettor moves is a big part of this system. I have one question though. From your experience how hard it is to find at least 1 game per day, that fits all these rules?

There is a competition here in the forum, and I guess I will put it to the test there, but it would be important for me to be able to make at least one bet per day. Do you think this is doable?

By the way, here is the competition I was talking about
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4855219.0

I'm guessing that with this system, plus some prizes (if this works), it will certainly be impossible to lose money.

Since the system works with all american sports, it's very easy to find even more than 1 game per day but in my experience there's has been days when the perfect bets hasn't showed up, is there when you must find the strength not to bet, as i wrote in the guide, is very important that every single golden rule is respected.
Unders/Overs are the best bets, especially in MLB and NBA.

Good luck on the competition, i might join too  Grin

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September 23, 2018, 02:09:33 PM
 #8

wow  I don't know how I missed this thread but this was for real the best read I had in ages and glad such user joined the forums here , we need more people like you sir
just curious why you limited this to American sports ? doesn't that work with tennis for example where lines change a lot  as well 1-2 hours before the match ?

also not sure if you know sportmarket.com , they are an Asian broker that offers odds from different asian bookies and they have charts for odds movements like this https://prnt.sc/kxplci
do you think the info they provide is enough to spot such bets ?

also curious about since when you started doing this and was the returns really as you are saying ?


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September 23, 2018, 03:47:05 PM
 #9

wow  I don't know how I missed this thread but this was for real the best read I had in ages and glad such user joined the forums here , we need more people like you sir
just curious why you limited this to American sports ? doesn't that work with tennis for example where lines change a lot  as well 1-2 hours before the match ?

also not sure if you know sportmarket.com , they are an Asian broker that offers odds from different asian bookies and they have charts for odds movements like this https://prnt.sc/kxplci
do you think the info they provide is enough to spot such bets ?

also curious about since when you started doing this and was the returns really as you are saying ?



I've tested the system only on American sports because, in tennis for example, zcode deosn't show the % of bets, so we can't know what the public is betting. Also tennis games are really easy to manipulate ( just think that to fix a tennis match you only need to pay 1 person, while in other "group sports" you need to pay a lot of people. Grin  Also many times are  players that actually fix the game, if you bet on tennis you know how many absurdity occurs ).

I don't know sportmarket.com, but from the screenshot you sent i can tell that they are not showing the % of bets on each side, which is crucial information we need.

Lastly, i bet with this system since years, i've shaped the rules based on experience. I can guarantee you that long term, if you strictly follow each rule, you will gain massive profits. Like i said, is not infallible, because a system like that doesn't exist, and we are still playing with odds.. but this time odds are in your favor, which is what actually makes the difference between win and loss.

My only problem with this system is that you need to check every game 3-5 minutes before it actually begins. This was hurting my lifestyle, especially since most of games are played after 0.00 AM in my local time. One of my goals for this year is to automatize all the system and just let it do its calculations and place automatically the bets! If any developer wants to collaborate on this project let me know!

Thank you for the kind words, i'm glad you liked the guide!

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September 23, 2018, 05:28:29 PM
 #10

I read this thread the very first day it was posted and i tried my best to understand it. However i am still unable to get through the graph reading. Will you share your contact for chat via pm!
And i may work out for automation of process.
Thanks
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September 24, 2018, 05:12:15 PM
 #11

I read this thread the very first day it was posted and i tried my best to understand it. However i am still unable to get through the graph reading. Will you share your contact for chat via pm!
And i may work out for automation of process.
Thanks

Yes sure, contact sent!

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September 24, 2018, 06:47:10 PM
 #12

This is a d*mn well-made guide, I must say.  Wink Giving you some well-deserved merit that you should get because of this. Just finished scanning through with it and I just can't imagine the amount of work that you put in creating this guide for the community.

Still figuring out the different techniques/tools that you provided and I must say, this may take quite some time as this is very new to me. But, I won't rush this one because I'm really liking the things that you're discussing here. Will savor this moment and learn all those things that you listed. Thanks again.  Wink

 
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September 24, 2018, 07:08:28 PM
 #13

This is a d*mn well-made guide, I must say.  Wink Giving you some well-deserved merit that you should get because of this. Just finished scanning through with it and I just can't imagine the amount of work that you put in creating this guide for the community.

These kind of post or guides which i do really seek of on where i would read up something new on a detailed manner which we havent seen for a while and this thing deserves a merit.  Smiley

Just like you ive been still studying into those tools given above,Im not a contrarian type of bettor but with those tips above i do say this would really give some good results even though odds are too low but that is already enough for me.


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CryptoSparks
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September 28, 2018, 11:46:05 AM
 #14

This is a d*mn well-made guide, I must say.  Wink Giving you some well-deserved merit that you should get because of this. Just finished scanning through with it and I just can't imagine the amount of work that you put in creating this guide for the community.

These kind of post or guides which i do really seek of on where i would read up something new on a detailed manner which we havent seen for a while and this thing deserves a merit.  Smiley

Just like you ive been still studying into those tools given above,Im not a contrarian type of bettor but with those tips above i do say this would really give some good results even though odds are too low but that is already enough for me.

Thank you! Keep in mind the 1.8 odd is the lowest the system can handle, and i included it only to be able to bet on unders/overs.
But most of time you will find yourself betting on underdogs with odds > 2.0




This is a d*mn well-made guide, I must say.  Wink Giving you some well-deserved merit that you should get because of this. Just finished scanning through with it and I just can't imagine the amount of work that you put in creating this guide for the community.

Still figuring out the different techniques/tools that you provided and I must say, this may take quite some time as this is very new to me. But, I won't rush this one because I'm really liking the things that you're discussing here. Will savor this moment and learn all those things that you listed. Thanks again.  Wink

I'm really glad you guys appreciate my efforts, this topic was silent for almost a month after publication  Grin

FrueGreads
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September 28, 2018, 12:54:22 PM
 #15

Hello CryptoSparks, I took some time reading your method and it looks quite interesting.
The bankroll management rules, and the discipline imposed are definitely some of the key aspects that caught my attention.

About the system itself, it makes sense and I would love to see it in action.

I would like to challenge you to join our Betting Competition, sponsored by BetKing.io

Our competition rules are completely compatible with your system, so why not put it to test for a month in our competition?
Don't get me wrong, you are already doing a great job by sharing this in the forum for free, I just thought it would make things more fun, and we also need more players to launch this Second Edition, and you look like a great candidate.

If you accept my challenge, just register here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4855219.0

Our Prizes are even better than in the first edition! (A $6000 prize pool per month now, depending on your bet stake)
If you have any questions, please let us know.

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CryptoSparks
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September 30, 2018, 10:56:02 PM
Merited by FrueGreads (1)
 #16

Hello CryptoSparks, I took some time reading your method and it looks quite interesting.
The bankroll management rules, and the discipline imposed are definitely some of the key aspects that caught my attention.

About the system itself, it makes sense and I would love to see it in action.

I would like to challenge you to join our Betting Competition, sponsored by BetKing.io

Our competition rules are completely compatible with your system, so why not put it to test for a month in our competition?
Don't get me wrong, you are already doing a great job by sharing this in the forum for free, I just thought it would make things more fun, and we also need more players to launch this Second Edition, and you look like a great candidate.

If you accept my challenge, just register here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4855219.0

Our Prizes are even better than in the first edition! (A $6000 prize pool per month now, depending on your bet stake)
If you have any questions, please let us know.


FrueGreads
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Merit: 1059


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October 01, 2018, 01:05:05 PM
 #17

Good to hear that!
Good luck!

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