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Author Topic: If someone buys Bitcoin today, they'll be lucky to see a 300%+ ROI.  (Read 17622 times)
mmortal03
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October 11, 2014, 05:23:05 AM
 #141

I do not plan to take financial advice from someone who sells at the bottom.

lol. I'm still holding, but if I'd sold when this guy did, I'd have more money to invest now at half the price.

just read the article on your blog - you totally have valid points yet.. i personally keep alot of BTC, i wouldnt sell all at this point. it may go agai nto 1k$. 10k? nah i dont believe that.

Gday, you have some interesting points, but you timing to sell btc, is as bad as your choice in altcoins Smiley

You guys do know that this was written back in the first week of March, and he finished selling when the price was in the $600 range?
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October 11, 2014, 06:10:05 AM
 #142

It is going down, who knows for how long.
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October 21, 2014, 11:35:42 AM
 #143

Stories about Bit coin and other digital currencies are all more than the media these days.
Coin pursuit is site explains a lot more about Bit coins. The heart of Coin Pursuit is information. The internet site includes a glossary of terms unique to the crypto currency field, and thoroughly-researched articles in plain English which discuss trends and concerns affecting investors. In the spirit of maintaining the internet site dynamic and up-to-date, both the glossary and write-up sections will be updated on a regular basis. There is also a forum where members can share experiences and exchange trading guidelines with their fellow investors.
To check out Visit: - www.coinpursuit.com


Anyone who calls it Bit coin knows nothing about Bitcoin.

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Pool your bitcoins with others. Vote on solutions using the Bitcoin blockchain. Keep your bitcoins in your cold storage until you find a solution you like.
Links and Reviews of useful every day places to spend bitcoins: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=943143.0
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October 21, 2014, 02:56:08 PM
 #144

Author of this thread is pretty accurate on his analysis and what is happening to bitcoin now.
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October 22, 2014, 03:47:36 AM
 #145

If I want to buy something online I will only pay in Bitcoin unless it's not available with a merchant who accepts Bitcoin.

I buy on Coinbase and then use those Bitcoins to pay for my order. I think there's a large enough community where if more did this it would greatly affect the Bitcoin economy.

Honestly I think Bitcoin can easily hit $125,000 per coin in a few years. Considering the sheer size of the mining infrastructure, the scope of the new innovations on the horizon, the ones that we know about...

I think the exchange price is irrelevant right now; it doesn't reflect any weakness or limit it's potential growth.

I guess we'll see how it turns out. I wish I had the opportunity to get in when you did. I hadn't even heard about Bitcoin until November 2013...

Paying for stuff with BTC does NOT help at all. Because the retailer or merchant simply dump that BTC into the market and covert it back into fiat. The only way BTC will go up is when the people who you pay with BTC, once again use it to pay others and a proper cycle is formed. Tipping with BTC helps since there is a chance that that person will once again rotate BTC to someone else.

The day we see people getting PAID in BTC as salaries is when it becomes a real currency. But then again, the price of BTC will not be so low like as well. So now is a good time to buy BTC!
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October 22, 2014, 02:13:57 PM
 #146

If I want to buy something online I will only pay in Bitcoin unless it's not available with a merchant who accepts Bitcoin.

I buy on Coinbase and then use those Bitcoins to pay for my order. I think there's a large enough community where if more did this it would greatly affect the Bitcoin economy.

Honestly I think Bitcoin can easily hit $125,000 per coin in a few years. Considering the sheer size of the mining infrastructure, the scope of the new innovations on the horizon, the ones that we know about...

I think the exchange price is irrelevant right now; it doesn't reflect any weakness or limit it's potential growth.

I guess we'll see how it turns out. I wish I had the opportunity to get in when you did. I hadn't even heard about Bitcoin until November 2013...

Paying for stuff with BTC does NOT help at all. Because the retailer or merchant simply dump that BTC into the market and covert it back into fiat. The only way BTC will go up is when the people who you pay with BTC, once again use it to pay others and a proper cycle is formed. Tipping with BTC helps since there is a chance that that person will once again rotate BTC to someone else.

The day we see people getting PAID in BTC as salaries is when it becomes a real currency. But then again, the price of BTC will not be so low like as well. So now is a good time to buy BTC!

This. The only salary you can make with BTC now are laughable, like sig campaings and what not, waste of time unless you are in a 3rd world country or something. You can make more flipping burgers in any developed country.

OP has been spot on. The only way Bitcoin can take off now is it simply gets trendy as fuck with correct marketing and so on, if it becomes a "cool" thing to own/use, because for the common folk it's pretty pointless, unless it's cool.
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October 22, 2014, 04:02:57 PM
 #147

If I want to buy something online I will only pay in Bitcoin unless it's not available with a merchant who accepts Bitcoin.

I buy on Coinbase and then use those Bitcoins to pay for my order. I think there's a large enough community where if more did this it would greatly affect the Bitcoin economy.

Honestly I think Bitcoin can easily hit $125,000 per coin in a few years. Considering the sheer size of the mining infrastructure, the scope of the new innovations on the horizon, the ones that we know about...

I think the exchange price is irrelevant right now; it doesn't reflect any weakness or limit it's potential growth.

I guess we'll see how it turns out. I wish I had the opportunity to get in when you did. I hadn't even heard about Bitcoin until November 2013...

Paying for stuff with BTC does NOT help at all. Because the retailer or merchant simply dump that BTC into the market and covert it back into fiat. The only way BTC will go up is when the people who you pay with BTC, once again use it to pay others and a proper cycle is formed. Tipping with BTC helps since there is a chance that that person will once again rotate BTC to someone else.

The day we see people getting PAID in BTC as salaries is when it becomes a real currency. But then again, the price of BTC will not be so low like as well. So now is a good time to buy BTC!

This. The only salary you can make with BTC now are laughable, like sig campaings and what not, waste of time unless you are in a 3rd world country or something. You can make more flipping burgers in any developed country.

OP has been spot on. The only way Bitcoin can take off now is it simply gets trendy as fuck with correct marketing and so on, if it becomes a "cool" thing to own/use, because for the common folk it's pretty pointless, unless it's cool.

I make good money programing computers and I'm paid in BTC.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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October 22, 2014, 04:26:02 PM
 #148

If I want to buy something online I will only pay in Bitcoin unless it's not available with a merchant who accepts Bitcoin.

I buy on Coinbase and then use those Bitcoins to pay for my order. I think there's a large enough community where if more did this it would greatly affect the Bitcoin economy.

Honestly I think Bitcoin can easily hit $125,000 per coin in a few years. Considering the sheer size of the mining infrastructure, the scope of the new innovations on the horizon, the ones that we know about...

I think the exchange price is irrelevant right now; it doesn't reflect any weakness or limit it's potential growth.

I guess we'll see how it turns out. I wish I had the opportunity to get in when you did. I hadn't even heard about Bitcoin until November 2013...

Paying for stuff with BTC does NOT help at all. Because the retailer or merchant simply dump that BTC into the market and covert it back into fiat. The only way BTC will go up is when the people who you pay with BTC, once again use it to pay others and a proper cycle is formed. Tipping with BTC helps since there is a chance that that person will once again rotate BTC to someone else.

The day we see people getting PAID in BTC as salaries is when it becomes a real currency. But then again, the price of BTC will not be so low like as well. So now is a good time to buy BTC!

This. The only salary you can make with BTC now are laughable, like sig campaings and what not, waste of time unless you are in a 3rd world country or something. You can make more flipping burgers in any developed country.

OP has been spot on. The only way Bitcoin can take off now is it simply gets trendy as fuck with correct marketing and so on, if it becomes a "cool" thing to own/use, because for the common folk it's pretty pointless, unless it's cool.

or unless they make money with it.....

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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October 22, 2014, 05:34:49 PM
 #149

If I want to buy something online I will only pay in Bitcoin unless it's not available with a merchant who accepts Bitcoin.

I buy on Coinbase and then use those Bitcoins to pay for my order. I think there's a large enough community where if more did this it would greatly affect the Bitcoin economy.

Honestly I think Bitcoin can easily hit $125,000 per coin in a few years. Considering the sheer size of the mining infrastructure, the scope of the new innovations on the horizon, the ones that we know about...

I think the exchange price is irrelevant right now; it doesn't reflect any weakness or limit it's potential growth.

I guess we'll see how it turns out. I wish I had the opportunity to get in when you did. I hadn't even heard about Bitcoin until November 2013...

Paying for stuff with BTC does NOT help at all. Because the retailer or merchant simply dump that BTC into the market and covert it back into fiat. The only way BTC will go up is when the people who you pay with BTC, once again use it to pay others and a proper cycle is formed. Tipping with BTC helps since there is a chance that that person will once again rotate BTC to someone else.

The day we see people getting PAID in BTC as salaries is when it becomes a real currency. But then again, the price of BTC will not be so low like as well. So now is a good time to buy BTC!

This. The only salary you can make with BTC now are laughable, like sig campaings and what not, waste of time unless you are in a 3rd world country or something. You can make more flipping burgers in any developed country.

OP has been spot on. The only way Bitcoin can take off now is it simply gets trendy as fuck with correct marketing and so on, if it becomes a "cool" thing to own/use, because for the common folk it's pretty pointless, unless it's cool.

I make good money programing computers and I'm paid in BTC.
Really? tell us more. What do you mean with programing computers? and who runs the business, how much do they pay... tell us how it works? most people aren't paying in btc, thats the minority.
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October 22, 2014, 05:41:21 PM
 #150

If I want to buy something online I will only pay in Bitcoin unless it's not available with a merchant who accepts Bitcoin.

I buy on Coinbase and then use those Bitcoins to pay for my order. I think there's a large enough community where if more did this it would greatly affect the Bitcoin economy.

Honestly I think Bitcoin can easily hit $125,000 per coin in a few years. Considering the sheer size of the mining infrastructure, the scope of the new innovations on the horizon, the ones that we know about...

I think the exchange price is irrelevant right now; it doesn't reflect any weakness or limit it's potential growth.

I guess we'll see how it turns out. I wish I had the opportunity to get in when you did. I hadn't even heard about Bitcoin until November 2013...

Paying for stuff with BTC does NOT help at all. Because the retailer or merchant simply dump that BTC into the market and covert it back into fiat. The only way BTC will go up is when the people who you pay with BTC, once again use it to pay others and a proper cycle is formed. Tipping with BTC helps since there is a chance that that person will once again rotate BTC to someone else.

The day we see people getting PAID in BTC as salaries is when it becomes a real currency. But then again, the price of BTC will not be so low like as well. So now is a good time to buy BTC!


This. The only salary you can make with BTC now are laughable, like sig campaings and what not, waste of time unless you are in a 3rd world country or something. You can make more flipping burgers in any developed country.

OP has been spot on. The only way Bitcoin can take off now is it simply gets trendy as fuck with correct marketing and so on, if it becomes a "cool" thing to own/use, because for the common folk it's pretty pointless, unless it's cool.

I make good money programming computers and I'm paid in BTC.
Really? tell us more. What do you mean with programing computers? and who runs the business, how much do they pay... tell us how it works? most people aren't paying in btc, thats the minority.


I know I'm in the minority, but there are jobs available out there.  Take a look around the services subsection of the marketplace sometime.

And no, I'm not going to tell you who I work for or how much I make.  That's none of your business.  But I can tell you it involves web development in the Ruby language.

It works like this: I work, I earn an hourly rate in $.  When I get paid, the dollar amount I've earned is converted to BTC (whether an actual exchange takes place is up to my employer, they hold BTC as well) and then sent to me.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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October 23, 2014, 04:30:52 AM
 #151

This thread reminds me of a chart I've been working on to show what the return on a 365-day investment in bitcoins has been over time. I get the data from the following page: https://www.quandl.com/BAVERAGE/USD-USD-BITCOIN-Weighted-Price
I've filled in occasional missing dates with the previous day's price.

The dates along the horizontal axis represent hypothetical sell dates following a hold of exactly a year. The vertical axis shows the percentage gain or loss that one would have experienced had he decided to sell his bitcoins that he'd purchased exactly a year prior.

For context: For much of May-August 2012, you would have taken a loss on year-old bitcoins. This is contrary to the idea going around that if one had simply bought and held for at least a year, he would have always profited. I will be watching to see if we continue to approach 0%, and hoping that we don't. I've added the red line to show what the future data will look like if the current price remains constant through 11/15/2014.

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October 23, 2014, 11:55:25 AM
 #152

This thread reminds me of a chart I've been working on to show what the return on a 365-day investment in bitcoins has been over time. I get the data from the following page: https://www.quandl.com/BAVERAGE/USD-USD-BITCOIN-Weighted-Price
I've filled in occasional missing dates with the previous day's price.

The dates along the horizontal axis represent hypothetical sell dates following a hold of exactly a year. The vertical axis shows the percentage gain or loss that one would have experienced had he decided to sell his bitcoins that he'd purchased exactly a year prior.

For context: For much of May-August 2012, you would have taken a loss on year-old bitcoins. This is contrary to the idea going around that if one had simply bought and held for at least a year, he would have always profited. I will be watching to see if we continue to approach 0%, and hoping that we don't. I've added the red line to show what the future data will look like if the current price remains constant through 11/15/2014.



Nice. While you are at it, could you find out what returns two years of holding would have given? Or, how long period would be necessary to have had a positive return?

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October 23, 2014, 01:53:00 PM
 #153


Nice. While you are at it, could you find out what returns two years of holding would have given? Or, how long period would be necessary to have had a positive return?


The actual chart for a two-year time horizon isn't anything special, but looking at the data, I calculated that around a 269% gain would have been the worst that you could have done. Essentially, this was if you bought in on the day of the June 2011 peak, and then sold on its two year anniversary. Still not a bad two-year investment if you really had the fortitude to have held over that tumultuous period! If you'd really made it that far, you'd likely not have sold on the exact two-year anniversary, anyway.

The best two-year return, on the other hand, would have been if you bought in during the first week of December 2011 and sold near the peak in December 2013, with a gain of nearly 40,000%!

Finally, the smallest investment horizon across which you'd never have gone into the negative, no matter when you bought in, looks to be around 623 days (~20.5 months or 1.71 years). The single culprit behind this long of a period of time was the steep mid-2011 bubble and bust, with the daily average high back then being close to $30, which was not eclipsed until the end of February 2013.
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October 23, 2014, 02:00:31 PM
 #154

This thread reminds me of a chart I've been working on to show what the return on a 365-day investment in bitcoins has been over time.
[…]
For context: For much of May-August 2012, you would have taken a loss on year-old bitcoins. This is contrary to the idea going around that if one had simply bought and held for at least a year, he would have always profited.
Very nice, and I'd love to see both a two-year and a 3-year chart!

Yeah, well... I'm gonna go build my own blockchain, with blackjack and hookers. In fact, forget the blockchain!
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October 23, 2014, 03:51:05 PM
 #155

This thread reminds me of a chart I've been working on to show what the return on a 365-day investment in bitcoins has been over time.
[…]
For context: For much of May-August 2012, you would have taken a loss on year-old bitcoins. This is contrary to the idea going around that if one had simply bought and held for at least a year, he would have always profited.
Very nice, and I'd love to see both a two-year and a 3-year chart!

I can post a "rough draft" of the two and three-year charts later, but I won't have the time to keep them all updated right now; one is enough for me based on how it's currently implemented. (I've actually had to trick Excel a bit just to get the log axis to display correctly with negative data, and I'd have to redo how the spreadsheet is organized to handle more than one chart per sheet). Some further caveats: Since the Bitcoin data, by definition, only go back to July 2010, the longer a period one chooses, the fewer the data points there are to display. Smiley And, given the large difference in price over such a long period, the three year chart seems to just take on the appearance of an exaggerated recent price chart, for the most part.

The only impactful bit I gained from it was that if you really had been holding that long, you should've sold back at the end of November, not waited for the full three years! Hindsight is 20/20. From November 29th until June 8th of this year, it was down-down-down, from ~539,000%(!) to a chart "low" of 2118%. Still not a bad return, of course, to make over 21 times your investment, but 5390x is what really makes people millionaires. You just can't know where you stand when you buy, and there's always the chance of missing a peak if you wait to sell. If you bought at ~$30 and expect the same returns as the earliest investors, you'll have to be hodling 'til it's $161,700!
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October 24, 2014, 01:37:38 AM
 #156


Nice. While you are at it, could you find out what returns two years of holding would have given? Or, how long period would be necessary to have had a positive return?


The actual chart for a two-year time horizon isn't anything special, but looking at the data, I calculated that around a 269% gain would have been the worst that you could have done. Essentially, this was if you bought in on the day of the June 2011 peak, and then sold on its two year anniversary. Still not a bad two-year investment if you really had the fortitude to have held over that tumultuous period! If you'd really made it that far, you'd likely not have sold on the exact two-year anniversary, anyway.

The best two-year return, on the other hand, would have been if you bought in during the first week of December 2011 and sold near the peak in December 2013, with a gain of nearly 40,000%!

Finally, the smallest investment horizon across which you'd never have gone into the negative, no matter when you bought in, looks to be around 623 days (~20.5 months or 1.71 years). The single culprit behind this long of a period of time was the steep mid-2011 bubble and bust, with the daily average high back then being close to $30, which was not eclipsed until the end of February 2013.

Good numbers, thanks.


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October 24, 2014, 03:45:48 AM
 #157

So? Your advice is? Do not get in the bitcoin biz?
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October 24, 2014, 12:43:57 PM
 #158

So? Your advice is? Do not get in the bitcoin biz?

his advice was "you are late to the party sir, don't get over excited"
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November 01, 2014, 03:29:09 PM
 #159

Here's an update of my chart, with the projected red (if price stays the same) extended through the top of last year's peak. I haven't forgotten about requests for other time windows, btw, I just haven't had the chance to put them together.

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January 30, 2015, 06:11:44 PM
 #160

correct - this man is on the money
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