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Author Topic: If someone buys Bitcoin today, they'll be lucky to see a 300%+ ROI.  (Read 17628 times)
mmortal03
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January 31, 2015, 04:57:14 AM
 #161

I forgot that I'd posted that chart in this thread. Here's an update:

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January 31, 2015, 07:38:49 AM
 #162

I forgot that I'd posted that chart in this thread. Here's an update:



Well, it does show some upside.
That us a relief!
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January 31, 2015, 08:36:01 AM
 #163

Yea we pretty much bottomed out here. Good times ahead. Finally!

Sure we may go down a little more but not by much. Smiley

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January 31, 2015, 12:07:58 PM
 #164

For the record, I just sold all of my Bitcoins.  I bought my first Bitcoins in June 2011 at around $28 and continued buying all the way down to $2.  I actually bought about 8000 BTC around the time I made this post: http://www.thebitcointrader.com/2011/10/im-calling-bottom.html.

Needless to say, my return on investment was massive. We're talking 25,000% plus.  For someone to see that kind of ROI today, Bitcoin would have to hit $125,000 each, or a market cap of $2.6 trillion on 21 million coins. Which brings me to my first point:

There's significantly less incentive for someone to speculate on Bitcoin today. To see a return comparable to what we've been seeing over the last couple of years, the amount of capital that would have to be injected into the markets is exponentially more than it was just over a year ago. This is going to cause investors to really do their homework before buying Bitcoin, and recent news events are exactly the sort of thing that will deter new investors.

Next, the vast majority of merchants are using Bitcoin as a protocol, not as a store of value. Anytime we hear of a new merchant choosing to "adopt Bitcoin," what they're actually doing is two-fold. One, they're getting free advertising for themselves, especially local businesses that find themselves on the front of the business sections of their local papers. Two, they're not adopting Bitcoin, they're adopting BitPay or Coinbase. These merchants care about lower fees and irreversible transactions, not so much the value of a Bitcoin itself. There are a few exceptions where the merchants retain some or all of the Bitcoins, but they're the minority, by far.

Third, Bitcoin early-adopters are cashing out. When you hear about Overstock, TigerDirect, Fancy, and others doing hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars of business in Bitcoin, those are old Bitcoins that are being sold. No one is going out to buy Bitcoins so they can make purchases they could already make with PayPal. It's inefficient and expensive.

Finally, there are better protocols that are being derived from and have improved upon Bitcoin. If Bitcoin is more useful to businesses as a protocol, then why wouldn't a better protocol oust Bitcoin in the long run? The Bitcoin 2.0s of the world (Ethereum, Open Transactions, Ripple, etc) will eventually unseat Bitcoin. Some say that Bitcoin will remain an ideal store of value, and the other technologies will become the ideal "payment rails," but is Bitcoin really a good store of value if 35% of Bitcoins are held in only 500 addresses?

Anyway, suffice it to say that I'm not done in the crypto-currency space. I've divested into Bitcoin 2.0 technologies, and look forward to seeing the space grow. I expect to see better returns on those investments than I would if I simply held Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is stronger and more widely known than a few years ago so it is safer to invest now. We could see a price of 10 000$ soon when the US is hit by a massive currency crisis.

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January 31, 2015, 12:14:08 PM
 #165

Well, it does show some upside.
That us a relief!

I'm starting to see it as possibly a sort of blood in the streets indicator. I'd have to do further analysis on it to see what kind of a predictive measure that it might have.
365 days is somewhat arbitrary, but it's also the line between a short and long term capital gain here in the U.S., so, that's one of the reasons why I went with it. It also just happens to be a psychological reference period/time frame for people.

Back in 2012, it hit the low point where if you had bought any at the 2011 peak, a year later you would've been down 81% on those bitcoins. It actually dropped further than that in a shorter time period back in 2011, and was actually already rising by the time it hit the 365 day mark. This time around hasn't had quite the sheer percent magnitude drop of the 2011 crash, but this bear market has been much longer, and still just hit a low of -76% a couple of weeks ago (on January 15th, 2015).
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January 31, 2015, 05:58:59 PM
 #166

Yea we pretty much bottomed out here. Good times ahead. Finally!

Sure we may go down a little more but not by much. Smiley

I am sure 90% of the people are waiting for next year to end , and see what happens after the halving happens.
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January 31, 2015, 08:40:54 PM
 #167

Yea we pretty much bottomed out here. Good times ahead. Finally!

Sure we may go down a little more but not by much. Smiley

I am sure 90% of the people are waiting for next year to end , and see what happens after the halving happens.

Some would say that since the halving is a known quantity, that it'll be priced in long before it happens. It's likely to impact things just as the last one did, simple supply and demand (however, speculator actions might still maintain a stronger effect on things). I don't think you can easily isolate a single factor.
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January 31, 2015, 09:58:11 PM
 #168

would be interested in OPs opinion about market now - were you collecting?

pretty much agree with the 2.0 projects - however they will not become bigger as the reserve currency
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