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Author Topic: Bitcoin forecast by swarm intelligence - project conception  (Read 40 times)
kryptomagazin
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September 01, 2018, 09:12:00 AM
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 #1

Hello Community, my latest project, Crowdindex, is about creating a user-based price indicator. Here is a project description, I would be very happy about a discussion and feedback from the community.

Link to the project: https://www.crowdindex.io/

How the crowd index works

Every visitor to the website receives free access to the current evaluation and opinions of other users. However, the prerequisite for access to the platform is the provision of a personal forecast. Through this approach, the platform grows independently by each visitor on.

However, if you think the Crowd Index is a simple poll, it's a mistake. The system works with so-called shadow profiles and analyzes every given forecast for its correctness. The more votes a visitor makes and the better his predictions, the more weight he receives.

Live success rate

The platform publishes a live success rate of its users. Thus the result of the index does not necessarily serve as an indicator in the classical sense, it could also prove to be a contraindication. A more detailed analysis and more statistics are planned for registered users and premium members with the introduction of the beta phase.

Copy Signals

What is known as "copy trading" in classic stock exchanges, Provimedia calls the crowd index "Copy Signals". Members of the platforms can send in time signals with the start of the beta phase. Once submitted, these signals are no longer erasable and are subsequently checked for correctness. Users with high success rates are given the opportunity to sell their signals to other users.

Index of the best

The signals of the 100 best users are combined in addition to a paid index. The income from the subscription of this indicator is then distributed to the signalers. An important aspect here is, of course, only a portion of the remuneration received the signal generator with a correct prognosis.

Binary signals not just for cryptocurrencies


This kind of signals and forecasts are also conceivable for other markets.
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Tudors
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September 01, 2018, 11:16:29 AM
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How are you going to avoid the risk that many first time visitors will be making mindless predictions (by just clicking anything randomly) in order to get in as soon as possible?
buwaytress
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September 02, 2018, 10:07:19 AM
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OK, just my first impressions. Not the first blockchain-based crowd intelligence prediction platform. There were some in development as early as 2016, and so many that launched last year and this. My experience? They do well when the market's in a bull run, which is anyway typical and they all tend to slip up during the bear.

Granted, most of them focus on crypto prices as a whole so a platform that focuses only on Bitcoin price might throw up different results.


How are you going to avoid the risk that many first time visitors will be making mindless predictions (by just clicking anything randomly) in order to get in as soon as possible?

I imagine it's the same as other platforms: reputational feedback mechanisms that mean weighted predictions based on reputation. Those who constantly post mindless predictions generally get rated poorly or don't get rated at all. So over time, those who make educated (and accurate) predictions get higher weights so their predictions are worth more. Those who frequently get downrated or not rated at all, their predictions simply don't carry any weight.

Very common in crowd intelligence platforms, of course this means a certain duration has to be achieved before weighted values kick in.

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September 02, 2018, 10:40:37 AM
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For my first impression, I think the site itself is good but you should enforce your guest to write on English or if not, enable an auto-translate feature on the opinions so that when users who don't understand the language used in writing the opinion looks at it, they will understand it. Also, I think the website has a few users at the moment and I hope you will continue to work harder towards making it more known.

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