What technical indicators would you say are most reliable?

[Oscura]

Hiya! I have posted a while ago that I was starting a buisness in speculating in bitcoin; This went splendidly! As I'm talking, I'm sales director, general manager and AI expert & consultant at a small financial company that is focussed on the development of prediction models for cryptocurrencies, based on statistics and technical analysis.

We're working on an AI-system right now, that can give real-time advice based on technical indicators. It incorporates analysis of the history of the bitcoin, and of course the order book. However, here's the question I have; I am not a professional economist nor am I a an expert on markets. I'm mostly concerned with PR and consultancy at the AI department. Basically, I'm asking you for advice on technical analysis; What would you say are meaningful technical indicators for bitcoin, or pairs of technical indicators? I'm well capable of using multivariate analysis, and doing the math & IT behind the AI I am responsible for, however, I lack the economic knowledge and "know-how" in the bitcoin.

So, what would you guys say would be good indicators I can work with? For example, I've heard about indicators like the Williams %r and such. Which ones would you say give the most meaningful data? (People who give me useful information that I can incorporate in my work I'll gladly give a cut of the profits, by the way - if this isn't against the rules of the forum. If it is, remove it / I'll remove it! )

[BitcoinBobbeh]

Common sense dictates you follow world news.

Russia's stocks plunge? Looks like Russia's middle class might need a way to store value and move it throughout the country or internationally. -> Bitcoin up.

The UK eases tax regulations on income generated through Bitcoin? Might get a modest bump considering London is a financial Mecca. -> Bitcoin up.


I am a programmer myself, so it would be pretty easy, at least the way my mind works, to program a set of pre-determined conditions, and then when one of those conditions pops up in real life, send out an alert on your app (or whatever it is) that says "X is doing Y, 75% chance of breaking $700", and link users to a non-partisan news article regarding the event. Maybe create categories for prediction events:

Military, political, financial news, news within the crypto world (such as the Gox fiasco), etc.

You don't have to be an economist. Human emotion dictates this market as well as most others. I trust you will capitalize on it.

I have plenty of Bitcoin myself but I won't decline a gracious tip of exactly 1 Satoshi.

1LQBaWxcPbNDSMh42pgatkUYCL6TSYipNU

[JimboToronto]

Good luck with your new business venture. Just be aware that not everyone thinks that traditional TA applies to Bitcoin.

[BitcoinBobbeh]

Good luck with your new business venture. Just be aware that not everyone thinks that traditional TA applies to Bitcoin.

Also, this.

Everyone and their grandma has a chart they want to show you. Most of them are pretty wrong.

If you can create an interface that takes world news and creates a general trend prediction with good accuracy, you will be a god.

[Oscura]

Of course, this would be a great goal for the future; Implementing an AI system that monitors relevant news sources and translates these to mathematical probabilities. However, at this point, I think such a project is out of our abilities and funds (I would suppose I'd need several teams of IT experts, AI experts etc to be able to pull that off within a year) so for now I'm looking for mathematical indicators, especially for when the bitcoin is semi-stable. Of course, no TI will be able to predict what will happen 100% of the time. All I need to do is have a system that has a 51% chance of making a profit each investment (obviously, saying average profit is same as average loss in this grossly oversimplified scenarios.)

What technical indicators do you guys monitor? I fully understand I can't trade only using TI, however, the idea of our AI is of course to supplement human action.

P.S Becoming a god is my intention. 

[hostmaster]

Common sense dictates you follow world news.

Russia's stocks plunge? Looks like Russia's middle class might need a way to store value and move it throughout the country or internationally. -> Bitcoin up.

The UK eases tax regulations on income generated through Bitcoin? Might get a modest bump considering London is a financial Mecca. -> Bitcoin up.


I am a programmer myself, so it would be pretty easy, at least the way my mind works, to program a set of pre-determined conditions, and then when one of those conditions pops up in real life, send out an alert on your app (or whatever it is) that says "X is doing Y, 75% chance of breaking $700", and link users to a non-partisan news article regarding the event. Maybe create categories for prediction events:

Military, political, financial news, news within the crypto world (such as the Gox fiasco), etc.

You don't have to be an economist. Human emotion dictates this market as well as most others. I trust you will capitalize on it.

I have plenty of Bitcoin myself but I won't decline a gracious tip of exactly 1 Satoshi.

1LQBaWxcPbNDSMh42pgatkUYCL6TSYipNU

i find your post very helpful thank you. Very wise.

[cosmofly]

I use the pizza pan inidicators, so far so good.

The indicators are divided into the abbreviation, pi - zza indicate bullish then pa - n indicate bearish trends

google it for more details, lot of pro traders use it

[Oscura]

I use the pizza pan inidicators, so far so good.

The indicators are divided into the abbreviation, pi - zza indicate bullish then pa - n indicate bearish trends

google it for more details, lot of pro traders use it

Lol wat 

[MatTheCat]

Hiya! I have posted a while ago that I was starting a buisness in speculating in bitcoin; This went splendidly! As I'm talking, I'm sales director, general manager and AI expert & consultant at a small financial company that is focussed on the development of prediction models for cryptocurrencies, based on statistics and technical analysis.

a lot of the trading does seem to follow the 15 minute PSAR religiously, even if other longer term factors are against it. Always a push in buying power or selling power when this crosses over. But you will know more about that stuff than most of us.

I noticed someone give you advice to ignore TA and follow the news. But as a financial professional, you will understand that 'following the news' is all very well for smart arses to pretend they knew all along after the fact but no reliable indicator before or during the fact, with the odd notable exceptions.

For example, Bitcoin went batshit yesterday when all the TA of the previous day (the things I look at) was suggesting a down-turn. Why did this happen?

At first I thought Whale manipulation trying to push important TA indicators in long territory

Then the clumsy and persistent nature of the massive buy-ins seemed more like inexperienced mass buy-in's, I then thought of the Ukraine situation (Holy Shit, I dived in long). The mass buy-ins did seem to suit Eastern European office hours

Then someone stated that this was because of the UK deciding not to tax Bitcoin (lol, gimme a break but people subscribe to it).

Then someone pointed out the fact that a 'promising Bitcoin news' tweet had come from Nic Carey of Blockchain.info. Could be insider training.

Then someone pointed out it was probably buying from an individual working on behalf of some large financial house, who was tasked with procuring a certain amount of Bitcoins and who wasn't bothered about spending much time at the market so just kept on dropping massive 1K - 3K buying orders right at spot price, totally visible to all, driving up the price wildly as he bought.

Q) So what was the reason for Bitcoins mad rise?

A) It couldn't be seen in TA anyway whatsover and anyone who tells you it could have been is lying and nobody is quite agreed on what the 'good' news item was that powered Bitcoin so high. In short, nobody fkn knows except the buyer who came to town with about 20 millions + USD to spend on Bitcoins.

[Oscura]

Well obviously TA can't predict huge swings. What I find more important is to have somewhat reliable TA indicators that give a statistical probability of what will happen if nothing big happens. Of course TA can't predict a whale dumping. But it's relatively decent in some cases for predicting say, the probability of something going up or down a few % or less, due to regular trading, which makes up thousands of buyers and sellers. Those indicators are what seem useful to me at this point.

Of course, all technical indicators which may be a good idea to work into the AI system are useful for my job.

[HairyMaclairy]

Volatility is the square of the wall height.

[porcupine87]

Good luck with your new business venture. Just be aware that not everyone thinks that traditional TA applies to Bitcoin.

+1
But some traders here using TA seems to do well with it. Lines in charts cannot predict any news. This is like looking in the front mirror of the car predicting the next curve. On the other hand I think many traders believe in that TA so this traders influence the price in some extent. And using the price as information mechanism, aggregating informations reachable for everyone, TA might be a complementary information.

But I suck at short term trading, so what do I know^^

[BitcoinBobbeh]

Hiya! I have posted a while ago that I was starting a buisness in speculating in bitcoin; This went splendidly! As I'm talking, I'm sales director, general manager and AI expert & consultant at a small financial company that is focussed on the development of prediction models for cryptocurrencies, based on statistics and technical analysis.

I noticed someone give you advice to ignore TA and follow the news. But as a financial professional, you will understand that 'following the news' is all very well for smart arses to pretend they knew all along after the fact but no reliable indicator before or during the fact, with the odd notable exceptions.

Come on Mat, that one hurt.    I've made a fair bit of money following news items as they unfold. Especially that shit out of China. What a week.

He asked for advice on predicting short-term trends and it's what I gave him. A piece of code designed to pull news articles is going to be able to react to stuff much more quickly than any person, even you, and form an opinion based on pre-programmed conditional statements.

Is it very general? Yes! But it has to be to have any kind of guaranteed accuracy.

I'd much rather get "Bitcoins will likely rise for 3 days" than "Bitcoins have a 55% chance of rising 3.2% for 44 hours if the 580 trendline has a 6% chance of whistling out its asshole."

Don't get me wrong - your TA is usually pretty solid... but that is not the norm. Everyone who wants to seem smart has their own chart and most of them are fucking wrong wrong wrong.

[Elwar]

Traditional TA will not work with Bitcoin until enough people who believe in traditional TA are speculating.

It is a self fulfilling prophecy.

[MatTheCat]

Traditional TA will not work with Bitcoin until enough people who believe in traditional TA are speculating.

It is a self fulfilling prophecy.

They already are....but X-Factors are X-Factors and Bitcoin is still a very small market.

20 million USD customers in other markets would just be part of the everyday ebb n flow.

In Bitcoin they can smash the price or explode it to upside. No amount of TA can account or predict these sorts of market moves.

[TERA]

World news is just an excuse for volatility and for certain waves to happen at certain times. What really drives bitcoin is the networking effect, exponential growth, and how many users there are who invest in, use, and create businesses and technologies for bitcoin. The networking effect works something like this: in 1 year, one bitcoin user manages to get 10 of his friends interested in bitcoin, and then in another year, each of the friends manage to get 10 of their friends interested in bitcoin, so now 100 friends are into it, and so forth and so on. The amount of people represent the amount of interest, support, innovation, and potential money is lying there waiting. This is why we have 'the trendline', which represents the average rate of exponential growth. There is a predictable cycle with a boom that goes way over the trendline and a bust which falls back to and finds support against the trendline. The bust is often assisted by some world events, which make it seem like the world is going to end and bitcoin is doomed. However, we know that support will be found at a certain point, on the trendline, because the enhanced user base is going to make that happen. The new userbase is always going to lead to the production of good news to trump the bad news at that certain point because it is the mathematical inevitability (or probability) that SOMETHING is going to magically happen at that point with that many people and that much money involved.

[porcupine87]

Just be creative

[TERA]

pictures of rockets, trains, and dinosaurs are the best TA.

[af_newbie]

pictures of rockets, trains, and dinosaurs are the best TA.

I thought it was whales and unicorns 

[gog1]

TA is useless!