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September 02, 2018, 03:18:35 PM |
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5 year inflation calculation with the Constantinople issuance reduction to 2 ETH / block
The Constantinople hard fork is scheduled to happen sometime before Devcon 4. Let's say it happens just before, on October 30th. There will then be roughly 102,500,000 ETH in existence at the current mining rate. After that the issuance will be 2 ETH per 5760 blocks mined per day = 2 * 5760 * 365 = 4,204,800 ETH per year. Additionally there will be 613,901 ETH per year created in uncle rewards.
October 30th 2018 = 102,500,000 ETH
October 30th 2019 = 107,318,701 ETH
October 30th 2020 = 112,137,402 ETH
Currently I believe the most realistic date for the switch to PoS would be sometime in 2020. For this calculation I am using October 2020 as a reasonable estimate. For ETH issuance after PoS, currently the expected value is 500k of ETH per year.
October 30th 2021 = 112,637,402 ETH
October 30th 2022 = 113,137,402 ETH
October 30th 2023 = 113,637,402 ETH
So in total over the next 5 years that would make for average ETH inflation of 2.084% per year.
Now compare that to bitcoin, with supply increasing from 17,348,950 on October 30th 2018 to 19,504,475 on October 30th 2023 (estimated block number 802429) for an average BTC inflation of 2.370% per year over the next 5 years. (This includes the 2020 halvening.)
Conclusion: assuming PoS doesn't fail completely, ether inflation rate will be around 10% lower than bitcoin over the next 5 years.
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