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Author Topic: It's that time again! Rally is coming soon :)  (Read 3514 times)
BTCurious
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November 01, 2011, 10:44:57 PM
 #41

Let me rephrase that then:

It only takes some lucky media attention to spark an influx of cash, and a corresponding rally, especially when we start off with a rather extreme volatility like this.

So what you are saying is that its media share is low. There are a lot of people that don't know about Bitcoin who might want in so it has the potential to increase in price. This has nothing to do with the dollar value. If the price was $1000 per coin and the general knowledge situation was the same would it also be a low price?

Hmm, what do I mean?
The current situation of bitcoin looks very much like an unstable balance. Most people think its price will either increase, and increase a lot, or decrease, and decrease a lot, maybe even die. Apart from that, there are a number of events going which might spark a large new interest in bitcoin, e.g. occupy wallstreet, but also bitcoin being mentioned a lot at Constellation's Connected Enterprise 2011.

Thinking about it, I believe you're right, it has nothing to do with the dollar value in itself, only with the bitcoin situation being at a tipping point. The reason the tipping point is there, is conflicting signals. There seems to be potential external interest, but the exchange rate has been dropping. Which of these impulses is going to prevail?

i think tomorrow we get a large ramp in the stock mkt which will correspond to a ramp in Bitcoin.
Why would a ramping stock market correspond to a ramp in bitcoin? Wasn't the reasoning: "Stock markets are crashing! There's a lot of 'free wealth' which needs new investments! Bitcoin is ideal for that!"

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November 01, 2011, 10:49:01 PM
 #42

The rate of decline has slowed a bit; the price dropped $3 in September, but only $2 in October.
Actually, try putting it in Log. Then the rate of decline is actually increasing. (30% in August, 40% in September, 50% in October)
Edit: So yeah, actually not straight, as Dan said, but going faster and faster. This can also be blamed on less market depth though.

But yes, it's anyone's call. It only takes some lucky media attention to spark an influx of cash, and a corresponding rally, especially when we start off low like this.

Edit:


I don't see a single thing that could possibly induce enough incoming cash.  This thing is dying.  And it only takes another big screw-up to spark an ouflux(?) of cash, and a corresponding crash, especially when confidence is already low like this.
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November 01, 2011, 10:59:10 PM
 #43

Wasn't the reasoning: "Stock markets are crashing! There's a lot of 'free wealth' which needs new investments! Bitcoin is ideal for that!"

i don't know if you're referring to my reasoning but i never said that.

what i've been saying is that there appears to be a newfound revulsion of sovereign debt which appears to include US Treasuries.  if the selloff in US Treasuries continue, THAT will free up huge sums of USD's looking for a new home.
BTCurious
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November 01, 2011, 11:14:44 PM
 #44

I'm not sure, I seem to remember someone saying that, and you seemed the most likely person Wink

Still though, why would a ramping stock market be good for bitcoin? By ramping you mean ramping up, right?

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November 01, 2011, 11:30:59 PM
 #45

I'm not sure, I seem to remember someone saying that, and you seemed the most likely person Wink

Still though, why would a ramping stock market be good for bitcoin? By ramping you mean ramping up, right?

basically, when the USD goes down, all assets go up.  when the USD and UST's go down, all assets really go up.
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November 01, 2011, 11:51:35 PM
 #46

Hm, I guess that sounds plausible Smiley

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