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Author Topic: Fundamental Change of Ownership?  (Read 1413 times)
phorensic
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October 28, 2011, 03:36:05 PM
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Mining has been dying out bigtime lately.  I'm pretty sure those miners have sold off their coins and aren't the day trader type that wants to buy them back at a lower price.  I'm sure there are other bitcoin owners that have done the same, sold with no intentions of buying back.  Are we seeing a fundamental change of ownership in Bitcoins?  Is the transfer towards new/old people who are ready to drive the price up instead of down?  Are we putting bitcoins in the hands of more capable users?
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October 28, 2011, 03:38:47 PM
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Mining has been dying out bigtime lately.  I'm pretty sure those miners have sold off their coins and aren't the day trader type that wants to buy them back at a lower price.  I'm sure there are other bitcoin owners that have done the same, sold with no intentions of buying back.  Are we seeing a fundamental change of ownership in Bitcoins?  Is the transfer towards new/old people who are ready to drive the price up instead of down?  Are we putting bitcoins in the hands of more capable users?

I'm still as incapable as I was before - any new user is almost certainly incapable. But bitcoin needs to function for the incapable.
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October 28, 2011, 04:25:39 PM
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Huh?

~7200 coins are mined every day, regardless of how few or how many miners there are.  So that's 7200 coins going into the hands of miners, every day.  The only way those coins are going into other people's hands is if they are sold...

I must be missing the point.
phorensic
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October 28, 2011, 04:59:41 PM
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Miners in it for a quick buck have been leaving en masse for 3 months.  Look at bitcoinwatch.com (bitcoin.sipa.be)  These are the people that sell a coin as soon as they get it, driving prices down.  Imagine those types leaving and another type of person coming in, buying up the coins, and using them in a different way that possibly starts driving the value up.
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October 28, 2011, 05:06:38 PM
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Huh?

~7200 coins are mined every day, regardless of how few or how many miners there are.  So that's 7200 coins going into the hands of miners, every day.  The only way those coins are going into other people's hands is if they are sold...

I must be missing the point.

Not exactly - what I see at bitcoincharts is that the current average is 4 blocks per hour instead of the normal 6 - that means that only about 5000 coins are minted per day.  I think it can also explain the recent price increases.
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October 28, 2011, 05:11:17 PM
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Miners in it for a quick buck have been leaving en masse for 3 months.  Look at bitcoinwatch.com (bitcoin.sipa.be)  These are the people that sell a coin as soon as they get it, driving prices down.  Imagine those types leaving and another type of person coming in, buying up the coins, and using them in a different way that possibly starts driving the value up.
So you're saying that instead of miners who sell coins, we now have miners who save them?  Anything to back up that claim?

Huh?

~7200 coins are mined every day, regardless of how few or how many miners there are.  So that's 7200 coins going into the hands of miners, every day.  The only way those coins are going into other people's hands is if they are sold...

I must be missing the point.

Not exactly - what I see at bitcoincharts is that the current average is 4 blocks per hour instead of the normal 6 - that means that only about 5000 coins are minted per day.  I think it can also explain the recent price increases.
True, good point.
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October 28, 2011, 05:23:46 PM
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75 000 BTC is not even 1% of the market currently. 7200 coins is less than 0.1% by now. This is insufficient by far to alter price at current volumes. Forget about the miners. They are fading out of the market as we speak, the most recent downspike was possibly the largest miner sell-off Bitcoin will ever see.

So, yes, of course we see a change in ownership. At least I can say that I own significantly more coins now compared to a few weeks ago, and I intend to hold some of them for speculation, as I think BTC is currently undervalued.

IMO, Bitcoins shifted to people with more realistic sentiments than "Bitcoin will rise to 1000 USD by next year" or "Bitcoin will certainly die". This is a good thing, as those kinds of "speculators" don't do a speculator's job, which is correcting and stabilizing price.
phorensic
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October 28, 2011, 05:23:52 PM
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Miners in it for a quick buck have been leaving en masse for 3 months.  Look at bitcoinwatch.com (bitcoin.sipa.be)  These are the people that sell a coin as soon as they get it, driving prices down.  Imagine those types leaving and another type of person coming in, buying up the coins, and using them in a different way that possibly starts driving the value up.
So you're saying that instead of miners who sell coins, we now have miners who save them?  Anything to back up that claim?
I'm not looking at only miners.  I'm looking at a ratio of miners to "other".  "Other" being the type of person to buy bitcoins, possibly never having mined them.  If you have way less people mining, but the amount of bitcoins never goes down, you have a different type of person with a different position being held.  That fundamental change in who owns bitcoins can cause the price to go up.
phorensic
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October 28, 2011, 05:25:25 PM
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IMO, Bitcoins shifted to people with more realistic sentiments than "Bitcoin will rise to 1000 USD by next year" or "Bitcoin will certainly die". This is a good thing, as those kinds of "speculators" don't do a speculator's job, which is correcting and stabilizing price.
Yes, thank you.  That is what I am trying to say.
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October 28, 2011, 05:30:41 PM
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I've felt changes happening as well for the past month. It seems that "connected nodes" are dropping. My website use to have a constant 100 nodes on average now in the 50-70 range of nodes connected. Makes me believe that a lot of miners whom were constantly online are now dropping off. As far as all the theories go well... Idk i guess we'll never know.

I suppose that if more "pure" bitcoiners come in and mine instead of "pumpdump" or "traders" come in we can get a pretty good stable economy going scince pure bitcoiners will use their bitcoins when its good for the economy and then hold their bitcoins when its good for the ecnomoy. Traders/Pumpdumpers will just hoard until its profitable to cash out which isn't good considering all the purists are the ones influencing the ride. Currently tho its sorta looking like all the money makers are dropping out.

* Thanks god. Roll Eyes
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October 28, 2011, 05:34:24 PM
 #11

It doesn't really matter at this point.
I think it's more of a collective decision of whenever people want to accomplish something or not.

Even if you are only interested in a speculative vehicle you have to ask yourself what that will be.  

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October 28, 2011, 05:42:52 PM
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I've felt changes happening as well for the past month. It seems that "connected nodes" are dropping. My website use to have a constant 100 nodes on average now in the 50-70 range of nodes connected. Makes me believe that a lot of miners whom were constantly online are now dropping off. As far as all the theories go well... Idk i guess we'll never know.

I suppose that if more "pure" bitcoiners come in and mine instead of "pumpdump" or "traders" come in we can get a pretty good stable economy going scince pure bitcoiners will use their bitcoins when its good for the economy and then hold their bitcoins when its good for the ecnomoy. Traders/Pumpdumpers will just hoard until its profitable to cash out which isn't good considering all the purists are the ones influencing the ride. Currently tho its sorta looking like all the money makers are dropping out.


Spot on - maybe we could somehow police those evil speculators, traders and pumpdumpers?  Otherwise they will just jump on the bandwagon at the very instant that the rally is confirmed.
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October 28, 2011, 06:31:41 PM
 #13

I've felt changes happening as well for the past month. It seems that "connected nodes" are dropping. My website use to have a constant 100 nodes on average now in the 50-70 range of nodes connected. Makes me believe that a lot of miners whom were constantly online are now dropping off. As far as all the theories go well... Idk i guess we'll never know.

I suppose that if more "pure" bitcoiners come in and mine instead of "pumpdump" or "traders" come in we can get a pretty good stable economy going scince pure bitcoiners will use their bitcoins when its good for the economy and then hold their bitcoins when its good for the ecnomoy. Traders/Pumpdumpers will just hoard until its profitable to cash out which isn't good considering all the purists are the ones influencing the ride. Currently tho its sorta looking like all the money makers are dropping out.


Spot on - maybe we could somehow police those evil speculators, traders and pumpdumpers?  Otherwise they will just jump on the bandwagon at the very instant that the rally is confirmed.

The way to 'police' those evil speculators is to be better at it than they are.

Word!

(that means +1 in Ebonics)
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October 28, 2011, 07:44:48 PM
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The way to 'police' those evil speculators is to be better at it than they are.

Beat me to it.  If anything, day traders leaving Bitcoin would a step backwards.
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October 28, 2011, 08:22:45 PM
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The way to 'police' those evil speculators is to be better at it than they are.

Beat me to it.  If anything, day traders leaving Bitcoin would a step backwards.

Indeed... If the exchange rate is to be at all stable then speculative trading volume will have to be many multiples of exchanges for 'cash spending'.
I'm beginning to suspect clouded objectivity on your part here.
Just a thought maybe the audience mainly interested in bitcoin so far was the wrong one...

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October 28, 2011, 08:53:34 PM
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The way to 'police' those evil speculators is to be better at it than they are.

Beat me to it.  If anything, day traders leaving Bitcoin would a step backwards.

Indeed... If the exchange rate is to be at all stable then speculative trading volume will have to be many multiples of exchanges for 'cash spending'.
I'm beginning to suspect clouded objectivity on your part here.
Just a thought maybe the audience mainly interested in bitcoin so far was the wrong one...


It doesn't take a lot of math to come to this conclusion. The very fluctuations of cash spending create opportunities for arbitrageurs. If those fluctuations are big then arbitrageurs profit more and limit the amount of currency available for spending. If those fluctuations are small arbitrageurs profit less. At a certain point those two reach an equilibrium and there is stability, but it is an uneasy truce. The arbitrageurs do a much better job of checking each other than spending vs. trading, so naturally this will account for the vast majority of exchange volume. And it effectively limits the amount of coin available for spending. If exchange for cash spending is a significant percentage of volume you can expect a very unstable exchange rate as this fluctuates a great deal.
I agree with this statement.  There's no bias behind it - it's pure logic.
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October 28, 2011, 09:31:45 PM
 #17

Mining has been dying out bigtime lately.  I'm pretty sure those miners have sold off their coins and aren't the day trader type that wants to buy them back at a lower price.  I'm sure there are other bitcoin owners that have done the same, sold with no intentions of buying back.  Are we seeing a fundamental change of ownership in Bitcoins?  Is the transfer towards new/old people who are ready to drive the price up instead of down?  Are we putting bitcoins in the hands of more capable users?

yes. profit-oriented corporations, sleek entrepreneurs, cutting edge startup companies, smart individuals,... now is the time for them to build up their bitcoin stock they will need for operation. It's the perfect time, everyone and my grandpa sais bitcoin is dead and talk about it in the past tense, selling off their coins or spending them on drugs. Surely money changes hands: the volume we see is not day-trading volume, it's actual money changing hands. So I fully agree with op.

Only the few that really understand how the world works, what is currently happening with our monetary systems and how fundamentally new and fitting the ideas in bitcoin are in current times, still believe in bitcoin and have big plans. It will pay off for them bigtime, and they will be called "early adopters" .

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