Time to discuss next halving?

[tee-rex]

It's been a little over two years since the last reward halving which occurred in the first decade of July, 2016. That means we can now officially start counting down till the next halving which is scheduled to occur in the third decade of May, 2020. But what's more important here is that there will be a lot of buzz and hype months before the actual event.

So let's recall the train of events that had preceded the last halving. In late August, 2015, bitcoin made its local low of about 200 dollars, and since September it started to rise and rose to over 750 dollars in June, 2016, just a few weeks before the H-day. Then there was a correction which many had been expecting as it was kinda obvious that people would be fixing profits.

Now, if past events are any indicator of what future holds, it is reasonable to expect that prices will likely continue moving in a sideways market for at least a year, with minor rebounds and corrections, as was the case in the second half of 2014 and first half of 2015 (now we are in 2014). Then, in the second half of 2019, people will undoubtedly start loudly talking about the next halving. These talks and expectations associated with the halving will most likely lead to a sharp price rise till the very event or pretty close to it.

The bottom line is that, these few months, and especially the first months of 2019, may be good entry points before bitcoin gets a lot of hype again. So don't miss on this opportunity, and get your cash ready today to jump on this bandwagon right on time!

[Eatund79]

There is maximum number of people who are interested in bitcoin and they are practically getting into the market when the market was not this popular it faced a huge up and when it is this much popular we can just assume what is coming.

[fourplealise]

In the previous years stats we can see there always been a huge high in the starting of the every year from 2015. From that and the current situation of the market we are hopping and mostly sure that the price is going much higher this time.

[tailor.and]

There is a big surge coming for bitcoin in the starting of 2019. The stats show that the price is going higher and higher. So every interested person should invest.

[tee-rex]

Yeah, the clock is ticking and the time is running out!

Why do you guys think bitcoin is holding so strong? It is because people start to understand that the halving is near, well, nearing at least, even if they don't fully grasp it yet, even if only in their greedy subconscious mind so far. It is good time to buy cheap bitcoins, and I'm not kidding, guys. I don't expect that bitcoin is going to double or triple in value any time soon, but it looks like it is a sure bet even if it won't make to the absolute top again. In other words, its potential for growth is higher now, don't miss this chance while it is still readily available to anyone with a half-functioning brain.

[atliens99]

The halving will obviously make the inflation rate lower which means lower incoming supply but there are still a lot of early bagholders that are waiting to dump.  MT Gox trustee still has A LOT of bitcoins to dump.

[PickwickRock]

Yes this does seem like a good opportunity to make some money. At the same time, this might be a good start for some people too for 2019, since the first halving was favorable.

[r32godzilla]

Yes long term holders are waiting for the next halving when there will be less supply of newly mined bitcoins and naturally the bitcoin price would increase.

[Sutters Mill]

What's to discuss? Bit early for speculation on this in my opinion. Are things really that slow in the bitcoin world that we've got to look for something that isn't happening for nearly two years? I think there's far more important events potentially happening in the meantime like the various ETFs

There is maximum number of people who are interested in bitcoin and they are practically getting into the market when the market was not this popular it faced a huge up and when it is this much popular we can just assume what is coming.

What the hell does this have to do with anything?

[vfrcbv91]

Damn, you're right. I personally forgot about half the reward for the block, and this is a very important event that can push the price up!

[bitvalak]

It's been a little over two years since the last reward halving which occurred in the first decade of July, 2016. That means we can now officially start counting down till the next halving which is scheduled to occur in the third decade of May, 2020. But what's more important here is that there will be a lot of buzz and hype months before the actual event.

So let's recall the train of events that had preceded the last halving. In late August, 2015, bitcoin made its local low of about 200 dollars, and since September it started to rise and rose to over 750 dollars in June, 2016, just a few weeks before the H-day. Then there was a correction which many had been expecting as it was kinda obvious that people would be fixing profits.

Now, if past events are any indicator of what future holds, it is reasonable to expect that prices will likely continue moving in a sideways market for at least a year, with minor rebounds and corrections, as was the case in the second half of 2014 and first half of 2015 (now we are in 2014). Then, in the second half of 2019, people will undoubtedly start loudly talking about the next halving. These talks and expectations associated with the halving will most likely lead to a sharp price rise till the very event or pretty close to it.

The bottom line is that, these few months, and especially the first months of 2019, may be good entry points before bitcoin gets a lot of hype again. So don't miss on this opportunity, and get your cash ready today to jump on this bandwagon right on time!

But the funny thing is that many people think that by the end of this year there will be big spikes like the end of 2017 
Whereas if you look at previous chart history, the increase in bitcoin always occurs after halving. Where prices will form new highs. I believe that there will only be 1x new highs and 1 new low in one halving. So the determination can only be seen at the end of 2020.

[Ayomiqueen]

Well it can push the price because of miner know their reward  are getting cut in to two which will be 6.25btc per block to be reward and this will look like they need to get high if what they used to instead of less and that might truly give hype in price.

[darkangel11]

Actually that halving coincided with an over year long bear market and a very low price of BTC. We won't have the same situation this time, unless you're counting on the bear market to drag for another 2 years. Halving is an important even and will surely influence the price but IMO it won't start a bull run. The bull run will have to start much sooner, in 2019.

[tee-rex]

Actually that halving coincided with an over year long bear market and a very low price of BTC. We won't have the same situation this time, unless you're counting on the bear market to drag for another 2 years. Halving is an important even and will surely influence the price but IMO it won't start a bull run. The bull run will have to start much sooner, in 2019.

Frankly, I don't count on the bear market to drag for another 2 years as I'm hoping it will be over long before the next halving. I'm just drawing analogies or parallels between now and what happened in 2013-2016. I understand that it is  "different this time" but still. The causes of crashes in late 2013 and 2017 may be different of course, and they are, but not their effects and the duration of them, that is how it will take until they are fully gone. In this manner, we may still be in September, 2014, and yes, it may take another year for the bear market to continue.

2013 -> 2017
2014 -> 2018
2015 -> 2019
2016 -> 2020

As you can see, the times match pretty close. The cycle has been discovered.

[darkangel11]

Actually that halving coincided with an over year long bear market and a very low price of BTC. We won't have the same situation this time, unless you're counting on the bear market to drag for another 2 years. Halving is an important even and will surely influence the price but IMO it won't start a bull run. The bull run will have to start much sooner, in 2019.

Frankly, I don't count on the bear market to drag for another 2 years as I'm hoping it will be over long before the next halving. I'm just drawing analogies or parallels between now and what happened in 2013-2016. I understand that it is  "different this time" but still. The causes of crashes in late 2013 and 2017 may be different of course, and they are, but not their effects and the duration of them, that is how it will take until they are fully gone. In this manner, we may still be in September, 2014, and yes, it may take another year for the bear market to continue.

2013 -> 2017
2014 -> 2018
2015 -> 2019
2016 -> 2020

As you can see, the times match pretty close. The cycle has been discovered.

I think that we can't look at it this way. You don't get a mirror images like that because there are various things that influence these cycles. If it was that easy people would do the same thing that you did and instantly know how to trade. At the foundation of every trend lies some fundamental value or lack of it and in 2014 we had MtGox going bankrupt, that was followed by Chinese bans. It was a huge thing that undermined the fundamental value of BTC. This time there's no such thing. We're in a bear market because BTC rose by a lot in a very short time and needed a correction, that's it.

[Herbert2020]

The bottom line is that, these few months, and especially the first months of 2019, may be good entry points before bitcoin gets a lot of hype again. So don't miss on this opportunity, and get your cash ready today to jump on this bandwagon right on time!

i mostly disagree because looking at the previous 2 halving cases i can see that the talks may have started a long time before the halving (like your topic for instance) but the real effect on the market and the price  started about a month or two prior to the halving itself. all that "talk" may be considered the build up towards that point but without any effect themselves.

not to mention that we will have a lot more going on for bitcoin and a lot more rises before we even reach halving. think of halving in 2020 as the Futures market in 2017. price was already $9000 when the Futures speculation came and price went up to $20k but it had gone up from $900 (10x) already before that.... halving will be the same. we will have rises then the halving will be a big shoot up and a mini bubble.

[BrewMaster]

We're in a bear market because BTC rose by a lot in a very short time and needed a correction, that's it.

i agree with your points i just want to add that the rises haven't started yet because of ETF decisions and the fear that has been going around in the market in the past couple of months that started with people thinking ETF is the only way price can go up then saw the rejection take place and now some still think the rejection by the end of this month can create a big drop!

[Kakmakr]

The halving is a significant event, but people should not only look forward to it, because they know the price will increase when it happens. It is a marvel to admire because Satoshi anticipated that we would need a halving every 4 years to increase the rarity of the coins. I do not think that there are any relationship between the halving and previous spikes in the price. 

I am just happy that we are still receiving a lot of coins to buy and this is something to celebrate.. as time goes by, less coins will be available for people to buy and we will have had a good opportunity to buy coins before all these halvings. 

[tee-rex]

Actually that halving coincided with an over year long bear market and a very low price of BTC. We won't have the same situation this time, unless you're counting on the bear market to drag for another 2 years. Halving is an important even and will surely influence the price but IMO it won't start a bull run. The bull run will have to start much sooner, in 2019.

Frankly, I don't count on the bear market to drag for another 2 years as I'm hoping it will be over long before the next halving. I'm just drawing analogies or parallels between now and what happened in 2013-2016. I understand that it is  "different this time" but still. The causes of crashes in late 2013 and 2017 may be different of course, and they are, but not their effects and the duration of them, that is how it will take until they are fully gone. In this manner, we may still be in September, 2014, and yes, it may take another year for the bear market to continue.

2013 -> 2017
2014 -> 2018
2015 -> 2019
2016 -> 2020

As you can see, the times match pretty close. The cycle has been discovered.

I think that we can't look at it this way. You don't get a mirror images like that because there are various things that influence these cycles. If it was that easy people would do the same thing that you did and instantly know how to trade. At the foundation of every trend lies some fundamental value or lack of it and in 2014 we had MtGox going bankrupt, that was followed by Chinese bans. It was a huge thing that undermined the fundamental value of BTC. This time there's no such thing. We're in a bear market because BTC rose by a lot in a very short time and needed a correction, that's it.

Yes, quite naturally, "this time it will be different". There are various reasons, which I myself continue to emphasize in my posts in this thread. But ironically, even if the reasons and causes are quite different (the point which I don't challenge), the final outcome still looks suspiciously the same. I don't remember the exact day as it was more like a couple of weeks when bitcoin price had been hanging around $1100 back in the day, but I think we can plausibly assume that in 2013 the price crashed in early December. This time it was late December. Then we were going down throughout the whole year (2014) with a few stops and even some rebounds. Today we see pretty much the same picture and dynamic.

Anyway, if things are going to repeat themselves as they appear to be, we have yet to see the lower lows in January and February of 2019, or somewhere around then. And next we will be dancing near the bottom for like 7-8 months with prices starting to recover in the fall of 2019 as we will be nearing the next halving. So far we are following the schedule tight enough to be just a coincidence.

[posi]

Actually that halving coincided with an over year long bear market and a very low price of BTC. We won't have the same situation this time, unless you're counting on the bear market to drag for another 2 years. Halving is an important even and will surely influence the price but IMO it won't start a bull run. The bull run will have to start much sooner, in 2019.

Firstly, I think is too early to discuss about the next halving cause next year seems to be the best time for such discuss. Meanwhile,  I agree with what you concerning next year to another year for bull running market but disagree with what said about halving not influence a bull run market.