Time to discuss next halving?

[Athanasios Motok]

But the funny thing is that many people think that by the end of this year there will be big spikes like the end of 2017 
Whereas if you look at previous chart history, the increase in bitcoin always occurs after halving. Where prices will form new highs. I believe that there will only be 1x new highs and 1 new low in one halving. So the determination can only be seen at the end of 2020.

Here I am, too many people write on the forum that there will be strong growth this year. Bitcoin will not grow above 20 000. I can tell you that for sure.
Last year was advertising for bitcoin. Many people who did not know about it, heard and even bought coins. And in 2018 it is the year of adoption of laws in various countries and the code of correction, after the high growth last year.

[1715226598]

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[mohammedmattar]

It's been a little over two years since the last reward halving which occurred in the first decade of July, 2016. That means we can now officially start counting down till the next halving which is scheduled to occur in the third decade of May, 2020. But what's more important here is that there will be a lot of buzz and hype months before the actual event.

So let's recall the train of events that had preceded the last halving. In late August, 2015, bitcoin made its local low of about 200 dollars, and since September it started to rise and rose to over 750 dollars in June, 2016, just a few weeks before the H-day. Then there was a correction which many had been expecting as it was kinda obvious that people would be fixing profits.

Now, if past events are any indicator of what future holds, it is reasonable to expect that prices will likely continue moving in a sideways market for at least a year, with minor rebounds and corrections, as was the case in the second half of 2014 and first half of 2015 (now we are in 2014). Then, in the second half of 2019, people will undoubtedly start loudly talking about the next halving. These talks and expectations associated with the halving will most likely lead to a sharp price rise till the very event or pretty close to it.

The bottom line is that, these few months, and especially the first months of 2019, may be good entry points before bitcoin gets a lot of hype again. So don't miss on this opportunity, and get your cash ready today to jump on this bandwagon right on time!

I think the BTC is about $ 6K
In the lower or near the bottom
With so many bad news
BTC has stood around this price
I agree that current prices are suitable prices to enter.

[joshuarose]

I hope that what you say is right and the price of bitcoin continues to rise in 2019 later from the first month to December 2019 later, I think the price of bitcoin can recover to 17,000 $ already grateful, but I also believe the price of bitcoin can break from the highest price as in last year.

[gussupri]

It's been a little over two years since the last reward halving which occurred in the first decade of July, 2016. That means we can now officially start counting down till the next halving which is scheduled to occur in the third decade of May, 2020. But what's more important here is that there will be a lot of buzz and hype months before the actual event.

So let's recall the train of events that had preceded the last halving. In late August, 2015, bitcoin made its local low of about 200 dollars, and since September it started to rise and rose to over 750 dollars in June, 2016, just a few weeks before the H-day. Then there was a correction which many had been expecting as it was kinda obvious that people would be fixing profits.

Now, if past events are any indicator of what future holds, it is reasonable to expect that prices will likely continue moving in a sideways market for at least a year, with minor rebounds and corrections, as was the case in the second half of 2014 and first half of 2015 (now we are in 2014). Then, in the second half of 2019, people will undoubtedly start loudly talking about the next halving. These talks and expectations associated with the halving will most likely lead to a sharp price rise till the very event or pretty close to it.

The bottom line is that, these few months, and especially the first months of 2019, may be good entry points before bitcoin gets a lot of hype again. So don't miss on this opportunity, and get your cash ready today to jump on this bandwagon right on time!

It's true sir, maybe now is the time to collect the token tokens that we want, it's easy for us to have patience

[tee-rex]

The bottom line is that, these few months, and especially the first months of 2019, may be good entry points before bitcoin gets a lot of hype again. So don't miss on this opportunity, and get your cash ready today to jump on this bandwagon right on time!

i mostly disagree because looking at the previous 2 halving cases i can see that the talks may have started a long time before the halving (like your topic for instance) but the real effect on the market and the price  started about a month or two prior to the halving itself. all that "talk" may be considered the build up towards that point but without any effect themselves.

I can't believe that you were really looking at the previous 2 halving events with your own eyes. I don't know about the first halving you refer to, which should have happened in 2012, as I wasn't there and can't say anything. But I witnessed the second coming, um, halving, and can say things didn't happen like you describe them.

First off, the prices started rising in early September, 2015, which was like 10 months before halving. They went exponential in the first half of 2016. Then, just before the halving, maybe 2-3 weeks prior the event, there was a massive correction of about 20-30%. After that, Bitfinex got hacked on August 2, which likely postponed the recovery due to over 100k bitcoins being sold before (through massive shorting) and right after the hack. The real growth which we all witnessed in 2017 started again in September, this time in 2016.

not to mention that we will have a lot more going on for bitcoin and a lot more rises before we even reach halving. think of halving in 2020 as the Futures market in 2017. price was already $9000 when the Futures speculation came and price went up to $20k but it had gone up from $900 (10x) already before that.... halving will be the same. we will have rises then the halving will be a big shoot up and a mini bubble.

Futures had absolutely no effect on bitcoin prices, apart from some hype, perhaps. This topic has been beaten to death already. They are all cash-settled and in no way can influence real markets. Anyway, the volume in these futures was miserable to make any impact in any case.

[Fluxtorrence9]

Since 2016 now we have seen double or triple investors getting into cryptocurrency ,I bet if bitcoin bull run again its going to be huge I don't expect bull run soon but I suspect earlier 2019,is still a good time to buy coins ,cryptocurrency is getting more popular day by day

[zolfa]

I agree with you, because of that, today we better buy more assets of bitcoin and other altcoins. bitcoin price today is cheap.

2019 is predicted to be the first bitcoin journey to reach the peak. so, the second cycle of bitcoin uptrend will start in 2019.

[Herbert2020]

The bottom line is that, these few months, and especially the first months of 2019, may be good entry points before bitcoin gets a lot of hype again. So don't miss on this opportunity, and get your cash ready today to jump on this bandwagon right on time!

i mostly disagree because looking at the previous 2 halving cases i can see that the talks may have started a long time before the halving (like your topic for instance) but the real effect on the market and the price  started about a month or two prior to the halving itself. all that "talk" may be considered the build up towards that point but without any effect themselves.

I can't believe that you were really looking at the previous 2 halving events with your own eyes. I don't know about the first halving you refer to, which should have happened in 2012, as I wasn't there and can't say anything. But I witnessed the second coming, um, halving, and can say things didn't happen like you describe them.

First off, the prices started rising in early September, 2015, which was like 10 months before halving. They went exponential in the first half of 2016. Then, just before the halving, maybe 2-3 weeks prior the event, there was a massive correction of about 20-30%. After that, Bitfinex got hacked on August 2, which likely postponed the recovery due to over 100k bitcoins being sold before (through massive shorting) and right after the hack. The real growth which we all witnessed in 2017 started again in September, this time in 2016.

all the fluctuations, corrections big and small rises that happened months before the halving (llike the 10 month rise you mentioned) can not be attributed to halving! if you do that then you are saying that bitcoin has nothing else going on for it, adoption is nothing, ... and it only has halving and price only rises because of it! that doesn't make any sense to me!

as for the rise itself it was in no way exponential in the times you mentions.
10 months prior to halving meaning first half of 2016 price went up slowly from $400 to $500 this is a 25% rise in 6 months in a bull market after a very long downtrend from Mt Gox bubble. this had nothing to do with halving.
then the real Halving Rise started on May 25-26 (1 month and 2 weeks before halving) and price went up from $500ish to $770 which is a 55% rise in 1 month. then fell down about a week before the halving.
the 2012 halving was similar although not as big. by that time price was recovering from a similar bubble of nearly the same size as 2013 bubble but it took much shorter time to recover (something like this year). then the halving hype started and pushed the price from $9.2 to $12.99 (41% in about 1 month) then we had a correction to about $10.90

not to mention that we will have a lot more going on for bitcoin and a lot more rises before we even reach halving. think of halving in 2020 as the Futures market in 2017. price was already $9000 when the Futures speculation came and price went up to $20k but it had gone up from $900 (10x) already before that.... halving will be the same. we will have rises then the halving will be a big shoot up and a mini bubble.

Futures had absolutely no effect on bitcoin prices, apart from some hype, perhaps. This topic has been beaten to death already. They are all cash-settled and in no way can influence real markets. Anyway, the volume in these futures was miserable to make any impact in any case.

that is exactly my point! it is the hype of Futures that made the big rise. halving hype is no different. the real effect of halving which is different from hype comes afterwards with at least 1 month delay.

[talkbitcoin]

One thing is sure. Next bull market will come.

I think price can't go much lower because of mining profitability. The only way for price to go even lower is hashrate increase has to stop. We have more and more miners in network every day for Bitcoin. This is kind-a margin they are breaking even or losing money and that is rare event. Price can go only up from now on.

there are a lot of  reasons for price not going any lower and mining and its hashrate is only one of them. for starters the fact that the demand for bitcoin has been rising all this time despite the drop and the fact that the current price is after a 70% drop. there is just nor more room left to go down. and when bottom is reached the reversal is on the way even if it takes a little while.

[ambisyon]

In my opinion, btc may not be able to reach the $20K mark the same as last year and most likely this may surpass the $10K level. Most of the people who had been investing btc happen to know and understand the btc market movement wherein it's bearish market is somehow the correction period for btc. Market may be down for now but more importantly, btc will gain more momentum in the coming months.

[anderson705]

The halving is a significant event, but people should not only look forward to it, because they know the price will increase when it happens. It is a marvel to admire because Satoshi anticipated that we would need a halving every 4 years to increase the rarity of the coins. I do not think that there are any relationship between the halving and previous spikes in the price. 

I am just happy that we are still receiving a lot of coins to buy and this is something to celebrate.. as time goes by, less coins will be available for people to buy and we will have had a good opportunity to buy coins before all these halvings. 

I fully agree with you here that Halving is a significant event in BTC. I remember last halving where there is a rush and r price goes up after it. People becomes aware and try to buy the bitcoin which add to the spike of btc price. Satoshi indeed is visionary to  anticipate this happening.

[Lien1411]

In my opinion, BTC may not be able to reach the $20K mark the same as last year and most likely this may surpass the $10K level. Market may be down for now but more importantly, BTC will gain more momentum in the coming months. Everyone wants the market to bounce back so you don't worry 

[Pursuer]

The halving is a significant event, but people should not only look forward to it, because they know the price will increase when it happens. It is a marvel to admire because Satoshi anticipated that we would need a halving every 4 years to increase the rarity of the coins. I do not think that there are any relationship between the halving and previous spikes in the price. 

I am just happy that we are still receiving a lot of coins to buy and this is something to celebrate.. as time goes by, less coins will be available for people to buy and we will have had a good opportunity to buy coins before all these halvings. 

technically speaking halving is not increasing the rarity of bitcoin nor does it reduce the supply. and as time goes by there is more and more coins available for people to buy because the supply is increasing every day and bitcoin is not burning or being destroyed (apart from a small percentage of loss due to loss of private key,...) so even with halving the supply is increasing.

what halving does is that it slows down the process of creating new supply or slows down printing bitcoin. and since a part of sell pressure is from miners selling their new coins, halving reduces that so the price can rise easier in the future after the halving. and that is why everything before halving is pure hype.

[cizatext]

The start of every year if you follow closely is always a challenging period for bitcoin because of over due price correction. The stats from 2014 to 2019 have shown that bitcoin have always correct it chart in other to prepare for a big rise towards end of each year, and with the recent events in the market price I think every one should get ready for a fly in price and if you have not invested now is the best time to do so.

[GreotDollyce]

This does sound like a promising thing. And given that the history repeats itself in the market, it does seem like it is high time for the second halving. This is an opportunity that cannot be missed.

[ylnar123]

It's been a little over two years since the last reward halving which occurred in the first decade of July, 2016. That means we can now officially start counting down till the next halving which is scheduled to occur in the third decade of May, 2020. But what's more important here is that there will be a lot of buzz and hype months before the actual event.

So let's recall the train of events that had preceded the last halving. In late August, 2015, bitcoin made its local low of about 200 dollars, and since September it started to rise and rose to over 750 dollars in June, 2016, just a few weeks before the H-day. Then there was a correction which many had been expecting as it was kinda obvious that people would be fixing profits.

Now, if past events are any indicator of what future holds, it is reasonable to expect that prices will likely continue moving in a sideways market for at least a year, with minor rebounds and corrections, as was the case in the second half of 2014 and first half of 2015 (now we are in 2014). Then, in the second half of 2019, people will undoubtedly start loudly talking about the next halving. These talks and expectations associated with the halving will most likely lead to a sharp price rise till the very event or pretty close to it.

The bottom line is that, these few months, and especially the first months of 2019, may be good entry points before bitcoin gets a lot of hype again. So don't miss on this opportunity, and get your cash ready today to jump on this bandwagon right on time!

Nice observation you have. It's just a matter of time to actually realize that our Bitcoin assets will be doubled just like what happened in the previous year where Bitcoin reached $20k.

[tee-rex]

all the fluctuations, corrections big and small rises that happened months before the halving (llike the 10 month rise you mentioned) can not be attributed to halving! if you do that then you are saying that bitcoin has nothing else going on for it, adoption is nothing, ... and it only has halving and price only rises because of it! that doesn't make any sense to me!

as for the rise itself it was in no way exponential in the times you mentions.
10 months prior to halving meaning first half of 2016 price went up slowly from $400 to $500 this is a 25% rise in 6 months in a bull market after a very long downtrend from Mt Gox bubble.

Bitcoin fell below $200 for a short while at Bitfinex in late August 2015. This is where you should start counting your percentages. But don't come with a reply that it is still not exponential as I used the term figuratively to show that the rise was pretty steep for a 10 month period given that bitcoin had been falling for a year and then stagnating for a half of that. Many people had lost there faith in bitcoin back in the day.

Ultimately, whether it was due to halving or because of the hype it provoked, or for some other reason or a host of other reasons, is irrelevant here as this is not my point. I see strange similarities in the price dynamic, and this is what I want to discuss in this thread, even though the causes of price changes may be entirely different and completely unrelated. Anyway, people started to talk about the halving long before it.

that is exactly my point! it is the hype of Futures that made the big rise. halving hype is no different. the real effect of halving which is different from hype comes afterwards with at least 1 month delay.

I don't remember a lot of buzz about bitcoin futures. If they had actually added to the price, that wasn't much. And you were talking specifically about the futures speculation, not about the hype they evoked.

[AvadaJigurda]

I think in the near future we should not expect any significant changes for the better, but I think at the beginning or by the middle of next year will begin positive changes and it will be the best time for investment.

[tee-rex]

The halving is a significant event, but people should not only look forward to it, because they know the price will increase when it happens. It is a marvel to admire because Satoshi anticipated that we would need a halving every 4 years to increase the rarity of the coins. I do not think that there are any relationship between the halving and previous spikes in the price. 

I am just happy that we are still receiving a lot of coins to buy and this is something to celebrate.. as time goes by, less coins will be available for people to buy and we will have had a good opportunity to buy coins before all these halvings. 

technically speaking halving is not increasing the rarity of bitcoin nor does it reduce the supply. and as time goes by there is more and more coins available for people to buy because the supply is increasing every day and bitcoin is not burning or being destroyed (apart from a small percentage of loss due to loss of private key,...) so even with halving the supply is increasing.

what halving does is that it slows down the process of creating new supply or slows down printing bitcoin. and since a part of sell pressure is from miners selling their new coins, halving reduces that so the price can rise easier in the future after the halving. and that is why everything before halving is pure hype.

The net effect is still essentially the same. As we all know, the price is determined by the balance of supply and demand, and both are dynamic parameters, which means we should consider them as flows rather than some fixed amounts. In this way, halving diminishes supply, and the diminished supply leads to the same effect when bitcoins are becoming more scarce.

Strictly speaking, we can't consider scarcity as some absolute value either, like 21M bitcoins. We should also look at how many people want these bitcoins. In other words, scarcity may increase even with more coins in total as in the case when the demand for coins increases faster than the supply of them.

[Athanasios Motok]

Of course, we need to draw an analogy with the past years. But this does not mean that the situation will be repeated if we compare the graphs. Before each rise or fall of bitcoin, there was a strong catalyst that moved the price. It seems to me that the situation with the bears will be solved when the major countries (TOP 5) in the world recognize bitcoin as a legal currency. And this will be a big push for speculation. It is speculation that drives the price strongly.