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Author Topic: Psychological fear dominates the market  (Read 3176 times)
BCTalkaccountforsale
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September 09, 2018, 03:35:51 PM
 #1

The continuous decline in Bitcoin prices may make investors very nervous and many people have lost confidence in Bitcoin as well as crypto.
This is a very normal psychology and nothing strange in life, in any field, there are two emotional state is governed by FEAR and GREED.
Especially in the financial market, not just the crypto market, when prices are rising, people often feel GREED, focusing only on positive trends and never thinking about trends. Negative, when the price goes down, then the person feels FEAR, then focus only on the negative trend and never thought that everything would be positive again.
Talk about this for people to imagine that believing in a current trend is only relative and timed, so look at the market trend with an objective eye (out-of-game) so that If not, then it will not be absorbed in the psychological game of the market. Finance is a game of psychology!
What do you think about this?

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September 09, 2018, 03:40:03 PM
 #2

I think the psychological factor of fear does not completely dominate this market but it involves a lot of other factors. The market is a collection of many factors, individuals, an element, the individual can not change everything. The fear of participating in crypto is unavoidable in new investors but for long-term investors this is normal. Bitcoin increase/decrease is unavoidable.
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September 09, 2018, 03:48:32 PM
 #3

This topic is interesting. I agree with you, finance is a psychology game. Those who win in this market are those who have the most stable psychology even when prices rise or fall.

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September 09, 2018, 04:51:22 PM
 #4

Well the GREED is the most damaging one because sometimes even if they gain x10 profits they don't stop there they will wait until it reaches 11 and 12 and eventually the price of the coin will go down and then the FRUSTRATION will enter because they don't withdraw, and sometimes their IMPATIENCE is the attitude you don't like to have when it comes to crypto because you won't know what will happen the next day or even the next hours.

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September 09, 2018, 05:38:19 PM
 #5

Yes, it is true that psychological fear dominates the market but also the fear of fall in loss and also the negative trust also dominate the market.
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September 09, 2018, 05:50:37 PM
 #6

wrong

bitcoin has an acquisition cost. at the moment miners costs are above $5,800. the high majority of users are refusing to sell for less then they paid for it. which also supports the long term $5,800 bottom. thats called the underlying market value layer

above that. .. then there is markets speculation layer.

yes psychology dominates if a price goes 4X higher than communities average acquisition cost. and psychology can decide when to correct that empty hype spike. but thats just the hype and fear of the speculative layer.. not the underlying layer

right now there is about 10% hype/fear speculation
in december there was 400% hype/fear speculation

but right now there is not much fear. we are not seeing 400% drops. we are not seeing price go below the long term underlying value

right now 10%+  10%- are not hype or fear. they are just normal waves..

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September 09, 2018, 06:20:39 PM
 #7

We have already been through a bear market even bigger than the current one. People came back after it and will come back again. Once we turn to the huge bull rally again just sit back and watch people jumping on it like never before.

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September 09, 2018, 06:23:30 PM
 #8

For now FEAR feel only those guys, Who bought at 15-20k and did not sell a bit lower. For the others it some kind of dissapointment not more. But market makers Will make us AFRAID of crypto future before the recovery. So from this logic could see btc below 5k, unfortunately Cry

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September 09, 2018, 06:59:38 PM
 #9

right now 10%+  10%- are not hype or fear. they are just normal waves..

Are you really calling that thing that happened at the end of July a normal thing? To me it was fear at its finest. The price broke out and acted like it was about to establish a higher low and then when it corrected it didn't go half the way. It went far below the point from where it started to rise which means that people oversold. Not onl;y those who bought into that rise sold but also those who were holding at the downtrend, before it even broke out to the upside.

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September 10, 2018, 02:02:43 AM
 #10

The continuous decline in Bitcoin prices may make investors very nervous and many people have lost confidence in Bitcoin as well as crypto.
This is a very normal psychology and nothing strange in life, in any field, there are two emotional state is governed by FEAR and GREED.
Especially in the financial market, not just the crypto market, when prices are rising, people often feel GREED, focusing only on positive trends and never thinking about trends. Negative, when the price goes down, then the person feels FEAR, then focus only on the negative trend and never thought that everything would be positive again.
Talk about this for people to imagine that believing in a current trend is only relative and timed, so look at the market trend with an objective eye (out-of-game) so that If not, then it will not be absorbed in the psychological game of the market. Finance is a game of psychology!
What do you think about this?


The real investors are not getting nervous just because the price of crypto in this year are falling, this is just only temporary.
They must be able to see the vision far in front of them. Crypto has gone to the bottom in this year, if it keep stay in the bottom for more than 1 year,
i will get nervous too.

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September 10, 2018, 02:34:33 AM
 #11

right now 10%+  10%- are not hype or fear. they are just normal waves..

Are you really calling that thing that happened at the end of July a normal thing? To me it was fear at its finest. The price broke out and acted like it was about to establish a higher low and then when it corrected it didn't go half the way. It went far below the point from where it started to rise which means that people oversold. Not onl;y those who bought into that rise sold but also those who were holding at the downtrend, before it even broke out to the upside.

every day there are ups and downs. if you are basing the new bottom by a price movement of a few days/weeks then you need to stretch your chart out further.. like i said +10% are normal swings. not new base setting milestones

i base my "value" on cost of acquisition.(the low/bottomline of a long term) which is basically the average cost of mining a bitcoin. and the low of the market (i ignore ATH)
anything above that is a speculation bubble area of hot air and hype.

what you need to know is that before June pools were using ASICS that had a unit price that was 2.5x more than the post June ASICS batch. basically it got cheaper to mine bitcoin. but now we are seeing the hashrate/difficulty counter that, thus raising the acquisition cost back to pre june

the overal average acquisition cost of traders and miners from november 2017 to now is $5,800ish+
if yes im saying it IF the price went below $5800 then i would have said that it was over sold. and the price was UNDER VALUED. but guess what. i would not fear that. for me. that would be DISCOUNT day. and a great time to buy.
(i hold MANY coins yet i dont fear when markets go down.)

now with this week we are seeing hashrates above 50exa evening out the event of junes asic hardware batch price change and seeing the price today is $6200+ then i see it as $400 of bubble/speculation padding above acquisition costs of 2018.

things to remember. the ATH is nothing special. at the peak only 1 person took advantage of the very top. but everyone can take advantage of the bottom. so dont stand at the top of a mountain looking down. stand at the bottom looking up.. this fresh mindset of looking up will make you a happier person when trading

oh. and if you too want to do some maths.
in october we will see another batch of new asics that will bring the cost per bitcoin into question depending on the hashrates rate by november(when users receive and start mining for less hardware cost) to see if there is another impact to the price.
im hoping to see a 90exa by october to keep to a ~$6k underlying value.
that way bitcoins long term growth stays on a yearly positive rise
2016:>300
2017:>900
2018:>5800

as for the 'price' volitility above the sea level of $5800. to me thats just waves that i like to surf that i can make a few percent a day playing the ups and downs. satisified that the sea level remains above $5800

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September 10, 2018, 04:25:29 AM
 #12

The continuous decline in Bitcoin prices may make investors very nervous and many people have lost confidence in Bitcoin as well as crypto.
This is a very normal psychology and nothing strange in life, in any field, there are two emotional state is governed by FEAR and GREED.
Especially in the financial market, not just the crypto market, when prices are rising, people often feel GREED, focusing only on positive trends and never thinking about trends. Negative, when the price goes down, then the person feels FEAR, then focus only on the negative trend and never thought that everything would be positive again.
Talk about this for people to imagine that believing in a current trend is only relative and timed, so look at the market trend with an objective eye (out-of-game) so that If not, then it will not be absorbed in the psychological game of the market. Finance is a game of psychology!
What do you think about this?

indeed, with the current conditions, many investors are starting to get nervous and lose confidence and confidence in investing if before we start investing we already know all the risks, I think investors are not so scared and panicked

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September 10, 2018, 04:32:17 AM
 #13

The continuous decline in Bitcoin prices may make investors very nervous and many people have lost confidence in Bitcoin as well as crypto.
This is a very normal psychology and nothing strange in life, in any field, there are two emotional state is governed by FEAR and GREED.
Especially in the financial market, not just the crypto market, when prices are rising, people often feel GREED, focusing only on positive trends and never thinking about trends. Negative, when the price goes down, then the person feels FEAR, then focus only on the negative trend and never thought that everything would be positive again.
Talk about this for people to imagine that believing in a current trend is only relative and timed, so look at the market trend with an objective eye (out-of-game) so that If not, then it will not be absorbed in the psychological game of the market. Finance is a game of psychology!
What do you think about this?


You are right in it.. People tend to respond in the market based on its situation. If it is high people get greedy but if the price is low they feared it.. of course we will respond the way the market moves. But if you really a great cryptocurrency users you will be always emotionally stable. You know how to play in the market safely.
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September 10, 2018, 04:47:43 AM
 #14

The market is filled with so many children, inexperienced people and the weak at heart but with lots of money! SOme attempt to day trade and the fact that you put in a dollar and the next minute is zero, won't go down well with most of them! so they are always on the look out to sell at the slightest down trend! Its the reason why the market is been finding it difficult to "bull" I doubt if we would ever get to see 1000x. Psychological trauma in this space is brought by people who are inexperienced but make day trading a full time job!  And those whose greed make them think its a quick money venture!

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September 10, 2018, 05:13:40 AM
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there hasn't been a "continuous decline" in bitcoin price for months now so if anyone is "psychologically" scared because of it NOW, then he is not an investor, he is an idiot who has no idea what he is doing with his money and is just running around throwing it away at every corner.

what we have in the market right now is greedy people who are waiting for a sign to buy in. like a big rise to $9000 so that they can be sure of the rally and buy in too late or they want ETF to be rejected so they can buy with ease of mind. and if they are scared of anything they are scared of ETF.

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September 10, 2018, 05:29:56 AM
 #16

wrong

bitcoin has an acquisition cost. at the moment miners costs are above $5,800. the high majority of users are refusing to sell for less then they paid for it. which also supports the long term $5,800 bottom. thats called the underlying market value layer

above that. .. then there is markets speculation layer.

the cost to miners doesn't matter. miners have overheads that must be paid. they have much more risk than spot buyers who can wait for price to come to them. miners can definitely be squeezed into liquidating their operations and selling their coins below production cost---why not? and difficulty will drop if net hash power is dropping due to unprofitable miners shutting down. that $5800 figure can drop until it's profitable to mine again at lower market prices.

and about users refusing to sell for less then they paid for it..... what about all the coins bought in 2009-2017 when price was lower than now? lots of bitcoiners can still take profit at these levels. as for the bagholders, they might end up selling much lower in a capitulation.

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September 10, 2018, 05:30:50 AM
 #17

There might be some truth to this, because in the beginning of last year, the price constantly went up in small increments and this resulted in a new ATH price of over $19000. This year we saw a constant decline in the price and we are seeing a price averaging around $7000.

This must surely have a psychological affect on any investor, when there is a constant price drop, because they find it harder to make some profit in such a price pattern.  Roll Eyes

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September 10, 2018, 05:33:03 AM
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I agree with you. It seems that with this red market everyone is uptight and feels that BTC is not worth any more and its that fear that may cause a lot of trouble in the future if it doesn't fade away.

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Pursuer
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September 10, 2018, 05:36:39 AM
 #19

Psychological fear does dominate the market these days but not for the reasons you think. people aren't afraid of the price drops because they have not been occurring for a while now. don't confuse the recent rises to $7k+ and come back to $6k bottom as "drops" they are market fluctuation/manipulation for short term gains.
what people are afraid of is what may come next. in other words they are afraid of the short term future because of the incidents that lie ahead. such as ETF rejection. and as soon as this "fear" is lifted the price will rise.

the cost to miners doesn't matter.

it does matter, the same way something completely irrelevant such as Goldman Sachs nonsense matters for bitcoin and the price of it. it is all about speculation and what the investors think. when enough people think the cost of mining matters and is a factor to look into, then it means it matters a lot for determining the price.

Legendari
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September 10, 2018, 05:40:00 AM
 #20

I think that any market is a reflection of the psychological mood of investors. Now people sell because they do not believe in the future of bitcoin, they only care about its price and it does not see prospects.

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