We're all Schrödinger's cats in the short term

[exstasie]

That's exactly the reason why Bitcoin is so volatile and why we have these big bull and bear markets - people bet money on and against Bitcoin (sometimes even the same people), but until we witness it succreding as a currency/asset/commodity, etc., both scenarios are possible. It's also kinda subjective - some people see that Bitcoin hasn't reached mass adoption yet and take it as a negative sign, others think that Bitcoin has already achieved a lot.

I put myself in the second camp. Let's make some comparisons.

The first consumer cell phones came out in the early 1980s. It's taken 35 years for cell phones to penetrate two thirds of the world population. It's expected that 36 percent will use a smartphone by 2018, up from about 10 percent in 2011.

So even the things we think of as ubiquitous have taken many years to reach mid-level adoption. And then we should consider that cell phone adoption rode on the back of landline users (and then smartphones were bootstrapped from cell phone users). Bitcoin couldn't draw on these established consumer bases. Its network was built from scratch. It's really amazing when you think about it.

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[Theb]

OP I think you might just be complicating the word "Speculation" which is funny because you have posted this topic in the speculation section of the forum. You are correct because a lot of people are like you which are merely speculating that BTC will still go up in the future as they really trust it will but they don't back it up with either Fundamental or Technical Analysis of their own. They just rely that gut feeling they are having that BTC (or whatever they are holding) will still go up.

[rodalutor]

OP I think you might just be complicating the word "Speculation" which is funny because you have posted this topic in the speculation section of the forum. You are correct because a lot of people are like you which are merely speculating that BTC will still go up in the future as they really trust it will but they don't back it up with either Fundamental or Technical Analysis of their own. They just rely that gut feeling they are having that BTC (or whatever they are holding) will still go up.

Fundamental and Technical Analysis still come firmly under speculation. Anything that is not based on fact is still speculating even if it is more of a calculated speculation than something purely borne out of instinct or hope.

[StarofBTC]

We won't know where the price will be at any given time until we check it!

or maybe we're Schrodinger's investors.

I'm not saying I don't believe in the fundamentals, I believe there is a huge future for bitcoin, but we don't truly know what the future may hold. Past performance not indicating future outcomes and what not.

This is one applicable thing in any market and for what it is worth, even though the future is bright, the fact remains that anything that happens in between now and the future is not certain and all that would end up happening between this period will certainly affect the future in some way.

We are just like a puppet directed in the way the market tends to at this stage, as nothing is certain for anyone. All we can do at any point in time is to blend with the trend as much as we can.

[Theb]

Fundamental and Technical Analysis still come firmly under speculation. Anything that is not based on fact is still speculating even if it is more of a calculated speculation than something purely borne out of instinct or hope.

Alright to some extent I can agree with you that technical analysis is somehow speculation but Fundamental analysis cannot be considered as speculation, FA is really a means of finding a hidden value of an asset which is covered with its market price. For example if a stock's Fair Value is 100$ and its current market value is 50$ just by buying it at 50$ you have the potential upside of 100% as it has the possibility of doubling your money based on its fair value which is computed to their financial performance, so you can technically call FA as basing it on factual data which is really not a mere speculation.

[exstasie]

Fundamental and Technical Analysis still come firmly under speculation. Anything that is not based on fact is still speculating even if it is more of a calculated speculation than something purely borne out of instinct or hope.

Alright to some extent I can agree with you that technical analysis is somehow speculation but Fundamental analysis cannot be considered as speculation, FA is really a means of finding a hidden value of an asset which is covered with its market price. For example if a stock's Fair Value is 100$ and its current market value is 50$ just by buying it at 50$ you have the potential upside of 100% as it has the possibility of doubling your money based on its fair value which is computed to their financial performance, so you can technically call FA as basing it on factual data which is really not a mere speculation.

Okay, but first off, that fair value is based on a qualitative analysis that includes growth projections. There are always unforeseen circumstances that can change that. There are no "hard numbers" that allow you to buy at 50% value and immediately sell for 100%.

Second off, how can this type of valuation be applied to BTC? Fundamental analysis on Bitcoin seems completely based on speculation to me. We have some metrics about current usage and the opinions of various commentators, the media, traders and investors, but that doesn't tell us where the market is going. Whether you go by FA or TA in this market, we're all just speculating and extrapolating.

[BitHodler]

Second off, how can this type of valuation be applied to BTC? Fundamental analysis on Bitcoin seems completely based on speculation to me. We have some metrics about current usage and the opinions of various commentators, the media, traders and investors, but that doesn't tell us where the market is going. Whether you go by FA or TA in this market, we're all just speculating and extrapolating.

The past is the only way to somewhat understand what thrives this market and how likely or not likely it is to go through a seasonal run in the future. Guarantees don't exist here, but what else is there to fall back on.

Based on the past, we might be due for a run up in the coming month or so, and it seems that it's starting to pick up on social media as well. Not sure how effective that run will be with people expecting it, but we'll see what happens.

It won't wind me up, but certain people here can definitely use some positive vibes with how the bear market has done everything to test their patience to the maximum. Poor rookies.