Altcoins Bleed More Than 2014 Correction: Is The Reversal Coming?

[dragonvslinux]

As shown in the comparison below, it's worth paying attention to the accelerated bloodshed in the altcoin market at the moment that has reached 86% this year so far. Compared to the 82% correction in the altcoin market that lasted for 9 months in 2014, the charts suggest the altcoin market could now be oversold as Bitcoin corrects further.



There are numerous arguments to suggest the Bitcoin and Altcoin corrections will sink the cryptocurrency market further, due to Bitcoin's low dominance in 2018 as well as the overvalued ICO and altcoin maket, as opposed to BTC's near monopoly in 2014.



This is a legitimate argument for why altcoins will continue correcting aggressively, as Bitcoin continues a correction towards $4 to complete an 80% reduction in value (currently this is at 70%). This would be similar to the correction of 2014, in order for the Crypto Market to lose over 80% of it's 2018 value (currently the market has lost 78%)

It's however worth noting the oversold Altcoin market began a strong recovery on August 19th 2014 after 9 months of correction, whereas Bitcoin and therefore the overall Crypto Market took until January 2015, totaling 14 months, an additional 5 months.



The altcoin market notably followed with a 68% correction from the 2014 highs until May 2015, while Bitcoin traded predominantly sideaways, gaining more dominance. However, the altcoin bears notably failed to make a lower low that year.



As relevantly, the altcoin market started it's 4 month bull-run initially gaining over 250% from August 19th 2014 to December 23rd 2014, while the pack leader fell another 30% from $475 to $334 before finding support at $200 in January 2015 to complete it's 80% correction.

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@dragononcrypto/altcoins-bleed-more-than-2014-correction-is-the-reversal-coming

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[reactorjuno]

As you said, in 2014 the market was very different, Bitcoin was in a near monopoly position. In 2018 there is far more money, and the number of altcoins is now ridiculous.
I would personally not compare the two trends, instead I prefer the dotcom bubble analogy which is more relevant if we compare it to year 2018 for the whole cryptocurrencies market. This analogy tells us that a big number of altcoins will simply die, IMO soon. It also tells us that the crypto market in general should rise, but only a few coins will be able to take advantage of it.

[dragonvslinux]

As you said, in 2014 the market was very different, Bitcoin was in a near monopoly position. In 2018 there is far more money, and the number of altcoins is now ridiculous.
I would personally not compare the two trends, instead I prefer the dotcom bubble analogy which is more relevant if we compare it to year 2018 for the whole cryptocurrencies market. This analogy tells us that a big number of altcoins will simply die, IMO soon. It also tells us that the crypto market in general should rise, but only a few coins will be able to take advantage of it.

I agree with your point, I'm not bullish that altcoins will recover sooner for the reasons you mention. I find it more interesting that the altcoin market gained over 250% value as Bitcoin had it's "final plummet" down an extra 50%. That's a staggering difference to be honest. I still think BTC falling will happen, and I don't rule out that most altcoins could we wiped out.
The reason I find the charts interesting at the moment is while most altcoins could simply die out, those outside of the top 10 represent only 20% of the market. Therefore these "Others" (99.99% of the market) could be wiped out, but if "blue chip" altcoins in the Top 10 gain just 30% of value in this time, the market would still hold it's 2018 low.
So yes, 99.99% of the market could be wiped out, but the Top 10 could thrive minus the no.1 (that still has too much market share) is the possibly. Also quite true of the dotcom bubble if I remember correctly, Microsoft anyone?
Regardless, I'm still a bear until next year  

[masterrex]

As shown in the comparison below, it's worth paying attention to the accelerated bloodshed in the altcoin market at the moment that has reached 86% this year so far. Compared to the 82% correction in the altcoin market that lasted for 9 months in 2014, the charts suggest the altcoin market could now be oversold as Bitcoin corrects further.



There are numerous arguments to suggest the Bitcoin and Altcoin corrections will sink the cryptocurrency market further, due to Bitcoin's low dominance in 2018 as well as the overvalued ICO and altcoin maket, as opposed to BTC's near monopoly in 2014.



This is a legitimate argument for why altcoins will continue correcting aggressively, as Bitcoin continues a correction towards $5k to complete an 80% reduction in value (currently this is at 70%). This would be similar to the correction of 2014, in order for the Crypto Market to lose over 80% of it's 2018 value (currently the market has lost 78%)

It's however worth noting the oversold Altcoin market began a strong recovery on August 19th 2014 after 9 months of correction, whereas Bitcoin and therefore the overall Crypto Market took until January 2015, totaling 14 months, an additional 5 months.



The altcoin market notably followed with a 68% correction from the 2014 highs until May 2015, while Bitcoin traded predominantly sideaways, gaining more dominance. However, the altcoin bears notably failed to make a lower low that year.



As relevantly, the altcoin market started it's 4 month bull-run initially gaining over 250% from August 19th 2014 to December 23rd 2014, while the pack leader fell another 30% from $475 to $334 before finding support at $200 in January 2015 to complete it's 80% correction.

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@dragononcrypto/altcoins-bleed-more-than-2014-correction-is-the-reversal-coming

Data Pack Insight as you said 2018-2019 figure is different with 2014-2015 and the Market Capitalization is more big than the previous years of comparison. So lets continue to speculate and if you were right the correction period is not yet finish in Both Bitcoin and Altcoin's.  I hope its not true damn it! its another bloody red 4th quarter I guess if the reversal is not realized!  

[dragonvslinux]

Data Pack Insight as you said 2018-2019 figure is different with 2014-2015 and the Market Capitalization is more big than the previous years of comparison. So lets continue to speculate and if you were right the correction period is not yet finish in Both Bitcoin and Altcoin's.  I hope its not true damn it! its another bloody red 4th quarter I guess if the reversal is not realized!  

If the figures are right then the Altcoin correction could be over, but Bitcoin has another 5 months. It was until August 2014 (9 months) when it corrected 82%, this year we've had an Altcoin correction for 9 months so far that's wiped out 86%. I don't doubt there is more to come, but I'd also expect BTC to lose some dominance as it's gained too much too fast imo.
The question for me is whether Bitcoin will hold the $6 mark or fall towards $4k in the coming months, not whether Altcoins will regain some dominance in the market personally. If Bitcoin holds $6k for the rest of the year, Altcoins could certainly benefit from this market confidence.

[jefrystar]

Right now there are more altcoins in the market than there was in 2014. So it will be obvious to see that the altcoins are taking the harder blow than the BTC in the market.

[dragonvslinux]

Right now there are more altcoins in the market than there was in 2014. So it will be obvious to see that the altcoins are taking the harder blow than the BTC in the market.

Agreed, but I wouldn't get bogged down in quantity of altcoins, the only relevance is the market cap or dominance of these altcoins, whether there are 100, 1,000 or 1,000,000.
For example BTC dominance was at a monopolizing 96% at the bubble top of 2013, then during the bear market dropped to 94% followed by 92% and continued to decline from there.
It's recent peak in 2017 was at 67% (after dropping below 40%), and this month has re-reached 58% after falling to an all-time low of 32% in Janaury. Long-term dominance is still falling, until there is evidence to prove otherwise, this BTC gain in dominance is nothing more than a dead cat bounce after falling from above 90% at the start of 2017. Bear market or not.
If history repeats itself, then the dominance won't be able to climb above it's December 2017 high, in the same way in 2013 the dominance didn't reach new highs during the bear market either, because the overvalued altcoin market had already become oversold. Hence the reversal was a little earlier than BTC that needed more time to consolidate.
If you're not seeing some peer-to-peer currencies outperforming BTC since August then check them out; XMR, NANO and most recently XRP.
I've been waiting a long time for a consensus on altcoin bearish sentiment, this is a key indicator for me personally.
(Observe the masses and do the opposite)

[Kripto_adam]

Its just a cycle what we see every 4 year. You guys better get used to it.

[reactorjuno]

Its just a cycle what we see every 4 year. You guys better get used to it.

Lol I don't think you can talk about 4 years cycles when it comes to altcoins, it is too immature of a market to have established cycles at the moment. Cycles on the Bitcoin market are more relevant.


PS: please folks stop quoting the whole original post, it is useless and makes the thread difficult to read. Thanks.

[dragonvslinux]

Its just a cycle what we see every 4 year. You guys better get used to it.

Lol I don't think you can talk about 4 years cycles when it comes to altcoins, it is too immature of a market to have established cycles at the moment. Cycles on the Bitcoin market are more relevant.


PS: please folks stop quoting the whole original post, it is useless and makes the thread difficult to read. Thanks.

True story. Bitcoin hasn't even established a distinguished cycle yet, there has been one 18 month bear market, apart from the current bear market, nothing else has significantly has happened. FYI market "cycles" are based on patterns, patterns are based on predictable outcomes, such as things repeating 3 times or more. Twice is a coincidence, three is a pattern.
Altcoin cycles will only exist once BTC dominance finds some balance, probably somewhere between 30-80% looking at support and resistance levels.

[wuvdoll]

Its just a cycle what we see every 4 year. You guys better get used to it.

Lol I don't think you can talk about 4 years cycles when it comes to altcoins, it is too immature of a market to have established cycles at the moment. Cycles on the Bitcoin market are more relevant.

I have always wondered why people tend to quote OPs at times, when they are indeed replying to the posts anyway and they could have replied without that. Nevertheless, that is by the way!

In a market, I have always observed that you cannot always use the past to judge what would happen in the future and for that reason, how a market would be is determined by the current factors and even if it turns out to be the same, I would only classify it as a coincidence and nothing more and i totally agree with you that the altcoin market is too premature to have a cycle.

[Red-Apple]

apart from the obvious fact that you can never use the past history of the market to predict the future of it, specially in a manipulated altcoin market, we also have another problem here that shouldn't be forgotten and that is the fact that the size of the dump does not indicate the end of it. for example price of an altcoin may drop 90% but it still continues to go lower to 91%, 92%... even 99% drop.

what points to the end of the dump are two things. first is when the whales run out of coins to dump, bag holders have no more coins to panic sell, and the bigger indication is when prices stay at the bottom while whales accumulate.
the second is when prices are simply realistic! for example a shitcoin that is worth $1000+ obviously has an unrealistic price and needs to lose it and come down to $50 before it can go on.

[Enzos]

I agree with you that a more drastic decline means a more violent rebound. Just yesterday, Ripple seems to have proved this. I believe the market will soon reverse, but I think the Bitcoin ETF will be rejected if it is rejected. May cause another drop.

[renes]

Firstly there are really no altcoins in 2014 if you compare that year to 2018  the crash of altcoins could be higher than one in 2014 because they have been in bigger bubble while they most worth nothing.

[Cryptodiscuss]

From all of that we can conclude there won't be new bull run until next btc halving, and maybe even 1 year after that. If we hit one more cycle like that alts are going to follow.

[mapsi]

I think the prices will increase significantly. but this will not be of course what everyone expects. this increase should happen at a time when no one is waiting. I feel that prices are close to the bottom

[DiamondsAndCoins]

I think the prices will increase significantly. but this will not be of course what everyone expects. this increase should happen at a time when no one is waiting. I feel that prices are close to the bottom

This ETF decision is going to play a factor before it's all said and done.  This decision may pave the way for market direction for the next 6 months.  The manipulators will swing it which ever way makes them the most cash and destroys the majority of us small guys.  Dicey times.  If you don't know what to do buy quality and hold for the reversal. 

[raven7886]

Its just a cycle what we see every 4 year. You guys better get used to it.

Well, it is still hard to tell yet if history will repeat itself again, but as it is; I would not be surprised to see it do so actually.

For what it is worth, I believe that we might see the same thing over again considering how the market have been so far, and the extent to which bitcoin and the altcoins have gone. Truth be told, we can see some strong divergence for the altcoins by the way and if given the perfect condition, we may start seeing some good growth pretty soon.

[ztto]

I think  altcoin  with  good potential will reach their ATH again but very briefly and then that’s when you should decide to sell  new coins will atleast go x10. But will drop very quickly in the next bullrun and then only a handful of coins will dominate the market

[i7claufe]

If cycle repeats itself then we must better get ready for something good in the next coming months! I also hope the crypto charts does the same as the stock market charts!