Tom Lee, from bitcoin bull to bitcoin bagholder

[zazarb]

@timerland. But $20k - $25k is only 3x - 4x away from bitcoin's price today and if you take its volatility during time of excitement into consideration, Tommy Lee's prediction might still be possible. If the bulls come back on middle of November, I speculate that it might still also be possible.

Yes it could be like you said , but in part this is a very small opportunity for that it would be great if price will reach 15k .

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[aqila baruroh]

I agree with what he says ($ 20k- $ 25k), although I'm not sure this will happen in the near future. but his words made me a little comforted in the midst of this market condition. well, applause for you and Tom Lee 

[wuvdoll]

@timerland. But $20k - $25k is only 3x - 4x away from bitcoin's price today and if you take its volatility during time of excitement into consideration, Tommy Lee's prediction might still be possible. If the bulls come back on middle of November, I speculate that it might still also be possible.

Well, it is still a very big IF. I have been seeing some actions lately from the bulls though and I am really trying to see how this would end and maybe with some very great news, we might see the market get back into some state of excitement and like you said, I would not be surprised to see some good movement. However, at the same time, I do not expect so much considering the fact that there is still a lot of resistance to break within this period and seeing a $25k absolutely means the market trying to print a new ATH, and from where I stand I do not see how possible that might be, and the chances are so slim, but not like it cannot happen.

[r32godzilla]

When it came to Tom Lee, nothing negative would convince him from abandoning his end of the year prediction of bitcoin reaching $20k - $25k. A new high.

In this article, he was quoted singing a different tune. Has our bitcoin bull transformed into a bitcoin bagholder? The psychological change is very clear. He is also human after all hehehe.

In any case, I agree in his new sentiment. It might be a perfect time to start buying again.



Bitcoin is not dead, and the best investment opportunities arise when the picture is not bright. This is how Tom Lee, Co-founder of Fundstrat and expert analyst of the crypto markets thinks.

According to Lee, the current value of Bitcoin represents an excellent buying opportunity, and it would be a mistake to miss the train:

“The question you have to ask yourselves is, ‘Now that crypto is down here, is it appropriate to be bullish or bearish?’ And I just want to absolutely point out it is a mistake to be bearish when you’re already down. This is like looking at stocks in December 2008 and deciding you wanted to become secularly bearish, even though the bear market was ending.”

“So I think the bear market has largely run its course in crypto, and it’s been healthy. It’s been resetting capital. It’s resetting investor expectations. But most importantly, the only time you can really make money in a big way is to buy when investors aren’t buying. That’s the real opportunity."

Read in full https://ethereumworldnews.com/tom-lee-mistake-bearish-when-youre-down/

Its the same phenomenon used by Warren Buffett that any stock should be bought only when no one is buying.Actually this is the time when most of speculators and new investors trying to get rich overnight leave the market and I hope there's no more events which could negatively affect bitcoin price and hence buying it now would be the wiser investment.

[magneto]

When it came to Tom Lee, nothing negative would convince him from abandoning his end of the year prediction of bitcoin reaching $20k - $25k. A new high.

Whilst that prediction is definitely possible if we see some sort of major bullish outbreak near the end of the year, I'd never bet on that becoming reality.

We're still deep in a bear market and even though markets have recovered a bit, it's very unlikely we'll see prices go over 5 figures any time soon. That's just my take on the matter. He's been extremely bullish in all of the reports covering him, so it's really no surprise here. I've stopped following Tom Lee and his speculative articles for ages now.

“The question you have to ask yourselves is, ‘Now that crypto is down here, is it appropriate to be bullish or bearish?’ And I just want to absolutely point out it is a mistake to be bearish when you’re already down. This is like looking at stocks in December 2008 and deciding you wanted to become secularly bearish, even though the bear market was ending.”

This is probably the rational thing to do, though. Buying in this bear market when prices are already so low is definitely going to be a good investment, given sufficient time.

[Slow death]

When it came to Tom Lee, nothing negative would convince him from abandoning his end of the year prediction of bitcoin reaching $20k - $25k. A new high.

let's be honest, he failed in his prediction. There is no chance of the price reaching more than $ 15,000 this year, he and many others have failed in their predictions for this year and for that very reason many of them are gone. because they do not want to face the press. One thing is certain, from now on nobody will be able to predict the price

Whilst that prediction is definitely possible if we see some sort of major bullish outbreak near the end of the year

ETF was postponed, what else would cause a big price increase? I see nothing

[bbc.reporter]

@Slow death. Are those your final predictions? I will quote and highlight them, then let's revisit this thread on the end of December hehe.

When it came to Tom Lee, nothing negative would convince him from abandoning his end of the year prediction of bitcoin reaching $20k - $25k. A new high.

let's be honest, he failed in his prediction. There is no chance of the price reaching more than $ 15,000 this year

Whilst that prediction is definitely possible if we see some sort of major bullish outbreak near the end of the year

ETF was postponed, what else would cause a big price increase? I see nothing

Also, the ETF would not be the only cause of a big price increase. Bitcoin's volatility by itself caused by simple speculation and increased by sheep panic buying should not be underestimated.

[BitHodler]

Bitcoin's volatility by itself caused by simple speculation and increased by sheep panic buying should not be underestimated.

Another important factor is the lack of liquidity. If you look at BitMEX, there in some cases is $10 million worth of liquidity within a range of $20 which is unseen in the world of crypto.

If you had that level of liquidity available on exchanges as Coinbase Pro and Bitfinex, which are actually spot market price drivers, the price wouldn't bounce up and down as heavily as it has been doing for years.

The problem here is that serious investors won't wire hundreds of millions to any of the current exchanges because the trust isn't there. I don't even trust exchanges myself, and rightfully so.

[pooya87]

~
Also, the ETF would not be the only cause of a big price increase. Bitcoin's volatility by itself caused by simple speculation and increased by sheep panic buying should not be underestimated.

but the sheep panic buying has never happened out of nowhere as far as i can tell. the rises have always been either slow with solid buy support hence building up a strong support without falls. and that takes time. or we have had big jumps that as far as i can tell have always followed these solid slow rises and were practically their final step after a long rise. and they usually want some sort of hype like the Futures hype of last year. that is why i believe he said ETF since it could have been the fake hype.

[0xBitcoins]

you can't call him a bag holder unless you think bitcoin is never going to rise and only if you think bitcoin is going to continue to fall forever and never recover. would you call him a bag holder still when bitcoin reaches $100k? $1 million?
generally a bag holder is referred to someone holding bags of worthless shit that will continue losing value. like altcoin bag holders.

“The question you have to ask yourselves is, ‘Now that crypto is down here, is it appropriate to be bullish or bearish?’ And I just want to absolutely point out it is a mistake to be bearish when you’re already down. This is like looking at stocks in December 2008 and deciding you wanted to become secularly bearish, even though the bear market was ending.”

“So I think the bear market has largely run its course in crypto, and it’s been healthy. It’s been resetting capital. It’s resetting investor expectations. But most importantly, the only time you can really make money in a big way is to buy when investors aren’t buying. That’s the real opportunity.

i like these two quotes because that is what i have always said. there is a time for everything. you can't remain on the same trend forever. just like you couldn't remain on the bullrun and expect the price to continue going further up when it stopped at $20k. now you can't expect the price to continue going down.
although in both cases there is always a possibility that it does continue for a while longer but would you take that risk?

Yeah, most especially the first one. It is more like Warren saying; Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful which sums up with not being bearish when the market is already down and people should tend to take advantage of what is at hand as an opportunity to buy at a lower price.

Market will always switch in trend at some point, and it is left for every single person to understand that when you buy the dips, in the long run, you will know the importance of the decision you have made today.

[rickadone]

most especially the first one. It is more like Warren saying; Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful which sums up with not being bearish when the market is already down and people should tend to take advantage of what is at hand as an opportunity to buy at a lower price.

Market will always switch in trend at some point, and it is left for every single person to understand that when you buy the dips, in the long run, you will know the importance of the decision you have made today.

You are really right and what everything still balls down to is that as long as you keep holding you really would not have a problem in the long run. I may be a bag holder now, but that does not mean someone in the long run, would not wish they could even buy at $10000.

It is just the way it is, and he simply stated some fact in what he said, with respect to you buying the dips as an investor rather than seeing it as a problem. One thing a lot of people tend to usually discard but prefer joining FOMO instead.

[bbc.reporter]

@rickadone. That is the common attitude in the cryptospace. But in the interest of discourse, how can we be that certain that bitcoin will go back to $20k, or how can we be certain that it will be bullish again? What if bitcoin now is in its fair price and will stay there for the next 50 years?

[JanpriX]

But in the interest of discourse, how can we be that certain that bitcoin will go back to $20k, or how can we be certain that it will be bullish again? What if bitcoin now is in its fair price and will stay there for the next 50 years?

Right now, being it (BTC) in a bullish or bearish trend isn't my biggest concern. What I mean here is that whatever happens to BTC in the month or in the next 50 years, it won't (severely) affect the way I live my life especially on the spending side of things because I have other channels where I get my money. I'm here because I just wanted to be involved with it. You can say that I didn't answered your questions directly or I'm just simply on the safe side of this discourse but this is honestly what I felt when I read your statement. I'll be happy when its price increase exponentially and when its price fall into the abyss, I'll just shrug it off and continue with my life.

[bbc.reporter]

@JanpriX. I was not asking about your life or if bitcoin's bullish or bearish sentiment will affect your spending habits. I was asking rickadone, to answer as a bitcoin speculator, how he can be certain that it will go back to $20k and on what he thinks the sentiment might be if bitcoin is considered to be in its fair price of $6500 for the next 50 years.

[aencarnaci]

But in the interest of discourse, how can we be that certain that bitcoin will go back to $20k, or how can we be certain that it will be bullish again? What if bitcoin now is in its fair price and will stay there for the next 50 years?

Right now, being it (BTC) in a bullish or bearish trend isn't my biggest concern. What I mean here is that whatever happens to BTC in the month or in the next 50 years, it won't (severely) affect the way I live my life especially on the spending side of things because I have other channels where I get my money. I'm here because I just wanted to be involved with it. You can say that I didn't answered your questions directly or I'm just simply on the safe side of this discourse but this is honestly what I felt when I read your statement. I'll be happy when its price increase exponentially and when its price fall into the abyss, I'll just shrug it off and continue with my life.

You have some points there though, but as it is, based on the question asked by bbc.reporter, the fact still remains that nothing is always certain. We could be having a fair price here but that would be dependent on whether bitcoin stagnates and remain in one position or if it does not.

Generally, in my opinion, I believe there is still more room for development and adoption with all that bringing in bullish sentiment in the long run.

Yeah, they are all speculations since we cannot see the future anyway, but there is always a side to everything, which is either go as expected positively and then we see more people wanting to have a piece of the cake for what it really is, or we tend to have the other positive side, but being a believer and seeing the benefit the space brings in the future, I guess I would rather prefer to stay on the optimistic side.

[STT]

@rickadone. That is the common attitude in the cryptospace. But in the interest of discourse, how can we be that certain that bitcoin will go back to $20k, or how can we be certain that it will be bullish again? What if bitcoin now is in its fair price and will stay there for the next 50 years?

BTC price staying at 6500 for 50 years would be very positive in many ways.  Having a level price like that enables business to trade around that stable value in planning revenue and transactions based in BTC.

The whole deal we got with Bitpay or whoever adds fees to transacting BTC is that stability is not there for vendors and they require that for alot of goods.   This is why I think digital goods are ideal for crypto as digital goods are not fixed or high cost items, the demand is variable and reliant on the public similar to crypto.

Dont assume a level price is anything bad really though or that 6500 is cheap.   Actually for me on a five year perspective having mined little bits of bitcoin years ago, 6500 is so massive.   Its like having people criticising a skyscraper because hey there are ones taller, please dont as BTC achievements are massively impressive anyhow and staying here is just fine really it is

[bbc.reporter]

@STT. Agreed. But the investors and speculators who are presently bagholding bitcoin will not he very happy hehe. The end result might be more dumping or more speculation in altcoins to try to make up for fiat losses.

[rickadone]

@rickadone. That is the common attitude in the cryptospace. But in the interest of discourse, how can we be that certain that bitcoin will go back to $20k, or how can we be certain that it will be bullish again? What if bitcoin now is in its fair price and will stay there for the next 50 years?

Well, in our life, nothing is guaranteed, and the thing we can always do is to be optimistic when at least you know there is still more possible room for growth. Take a look at how things have been over the years and the way adoption has been increasing, take a look at the fact that we keep seeing development every now and then and there could still be an opportunity for real life usage, hence, more demand, see the fact that the government can also see a way to want to regulate the space, and that brings more awareness, summing up all these means there is a possibility to see that happen, but you should know even at that, it does not mean we can see what exactly the future holds.

[mostkey]

@rickadone. That is the common attitude in the cryptospace. But in the interest of discourse, how can we be that certain that bitcoin will go back to $20k, or how can we be certain that it will be bullish again? What if bitcoin now is in its fair price and will stay there for the next 50 years?

I think this is indeed a point where we as trader should believe that the price of bitcoin will return to 20k or even exceed that. we all know that investors and coin holders are very influential on the growth of market prices, both bitcoin and altcoin, because both have the same price growth system

[bbc.reporter]

@rickadone. That is the common attitude in the cryptospace. But in the interest of discourse, how can we be that certain that bitcoin will go back to $20k, or how can we be certain that it will be bullish again? What if bitcoin now is in its fair price and will stay there for the next 50 years?

Well, in our life, nothing is guaranteed, and the thing we can always do is to be optimistic when at least you know there is still more possible room for growth. Take a look at how things have been over the years and the way adoption has been increasing, take a look at the fact that we keep seeing development every now and then and there could still be an opportunity for real life usage, hence, more demand, see the fact that the government can also see a way to want to regulate the space, and that brings more awareness, summing up all these means there is a possibility to see that happen, but you should know even at that, it does not mean we can see what exactly the future holds.

I was not asking about what kind of attitude the speculators should have in a deflated market. I was giving an imaginary situtation and wanted to know what your thoughts might be.

In any case, in that situation if bitcoin has stablized, I reckon that there would be more dumping and/or more speculation in altcoins.