Found out where all the bitcoin money went...

[jaysabi]

Yes, legal weed is currently in a bubble. People are being just as stupid here as they were with Bitcoin. Canopy currently has a market cap of $12.3 billion on sales TTM sales of just under $88 million. Tilray is far worse with a market cap of $19.7 billion on TTM sales of $27.6 million. Anyone buying Tilray at these prices is making an astoundingly risky bet for what I consider to be very limited upside.

it's certainly feeling like a bubble. it'll be interesting to see who emerges on top in a few years, when all the dust settles. tilray got way over-hyped because it was the first public pot stock on the nasdaq.

If that's the reason it was getting so much buy-side action, it doesn't even make sense to me. It wasn't even the first US-exchange traded pot company, Canopy Growth Corporation was listed on the NYSE before Tilray was listed on Nasdaq. The stock was getting out of control after the CEO made some media appearances, especially Cramer, where he said he sees the global weed industry being worth $150 billion annually. Take it with a grain of salt folks, even if that's true it doesn't all go to one company! Plus the guy is talking his own book.

It's nice to know that the stock has come back to Earth a little bit, although it's still insanely valued.  It's down 53% in the last two days from $263 to $123. I don't feel bad for anyone buying in the $200s, man do those guys deserve it for being so irrational.

Extremely overpriced, I would advise everyone to stay far away from marijuana stocks.  "Once it becomes more legal and laws become more relaxed their profit margins will shrink to almost nothing since people will be able to easily grow their own.

we are a very long way from market saturation. there is an incredible amount of new demand. it's actually fucking annoying as a consumer---like 80% of the people i see in the shops now are normie weekend warrior types who take forever at the counter because they've smoked weed like twice in their life.

and there's no way most people will ever grow their own. especially when you consider how hyper-consumerist society is now. growing takes months of preparation, hard work and often good luck (regarding weather, unless you have good indoor growing space).

I also think it's highly unlikely the home-grown movement will seriously dent corporate pot sales. The real threat though is oversupply of a commodity product that will absolutely hammer margins for these companies. They are all very aggressively increasing growing capacity in what will be a very commoditized product. The margins they are enjoying now are very likely to come under intense pressure in the future years in my opinion.

[Nyak put]

 there is an incredible amount of new demand. it's actually fucking annoying as a consumer---like 80% of the people i see in the shops now are normie weekend warrior types who take forever at the counter because they've smoked weed like twice in their life.

[jaysabi]

I'd say pot industry has better fundamentals than cryptocurrencies, millions of people were smoking weed illegally, now even more will join, especially as more states and governments legalize it. Maybe at some point weed will even flip alcohol as most common drug. Kinda hard to compare weeds adoption with cryptocurrency adoption when most of the coins have almost no users, and even popular coins mostly used only as speculative investment.

100% right, crypto has no fundamentals and no inherent value. The value is completely arbitrary. These pot companies at least have inherent value and produce a product the market wants, even if their valuations are out of whack.

I'm interested in their long term profit potential.  

They're essentially taking over the weed business from drug cartels and organized crime in regions where legalization occurs. Its been estimated the US black market for weed is worth in excess of $50 billion. That could represent an upper tier for earnings growth over the next few decades if it gradually becomes more regulated.

There is also the potential for legal weed to takeover some of the markets enjoyed by big pharma. Things like aspirin and pharmaceutical remedies for many varying medical conditions would eventually be taken over by legalized marijuana.

The industry definitely has potential to sustain high growth.

I think you're going to see three main industries interested in this space, and that's part of what is fueling the current high valuations: alcohol companies (you're already seeing this, with Constellation investing heavily in Canopy and Diageo said to be actively shopping for an acquisition), pharmaceutical companies because this fits with what they already do, and tobacco companies as cigarette use continues to fall. Even Coca-Cola has said they are "closely monitoring" this space.

Average joes are fomo'ing hard on these so called pot stocks, just look at the search results of Tilray;

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=tilray

If people still believe that operating on a regulated platform helps reducing volatility, they are absolutely wrong.

You say the same thing with Bitcoin. The search trends track the price trends and reinforce the mania as it all fuels itself. Classic bubble. However, I don't think anyone thinks the purpose of a regulated platform is to reduce volatility. Or at least, if you do you shouldn't. But on a regulated platform you can be certain the volumes and pricing are legitimate, which is not at all the case for crypto markets, especially those based in China.

I still wonder why there is a widely spread expectation that marijuana will be legalized in all US states.
This is 100% hype and nothing more.Even if marijuana gets legalized in the US,hundreds of new companies will enter this market and cut the market shares of Tilray and Canopy.
Those overpriced stocks are more shitty than all the shitty altcoins or ICO tokens.

These earlier leaders will have the advantage of scale, liquidity and operational history by the time any US company gets established. Don't expect some newcomer to be able to catch them when they're starting so far behind. The companies in the US all have to operate in semi-darkness right now for risk of violating federal law, so there's no ability to actively grow or achieve any kind of scale. And most of these companies beat the pants off of every single altcoin and definitely every single ICO. I'd take Canopy stock over Bitcoin every time.

[raven7886]

People are not investing on legal weed companies because they are making a lot of money, I think people are investing because there is a big high potential in the future of it.

Today it may not worth this much, maybe today it is overvalued a lot, however they believe that the first weed companies that are getting bigger each day can worth A LOT in the future, 10 years from now these companies will worth insane amounts and they are investing into that potential and not today's prices. I am not invested in them but if I ever did I would definitely invest for what it could be and not for what it is right now.

[1Referee]

But on a regulated platform you can be certain the volumes and pricing are legitimate, which is not at all the case for crypto markets, especially those based in China.

I wouldn't necessarily call pricing and volumes over there legitimate, especially when you take into consideration that wash trading and front running of orders happens there as well, and the latter is technically not even a crime, legally speaking. The only difference is that the institutions participating in such activities know how to make it look natural, while in the crypto space (especially in China) no one even cares since the odds of being prosecuted for shady activity is close to zero.

The problem with these emerging stocks is that they are very difficult to price properly, because it's not just a matter of looking at the fundamentals and whatnot, but also the fact that in most cases 50% of their value is based on nothing but speculation, especially when you have retail investors jump on board like there is no tomorrow. We'll only find out whether or not current values are 'legitimate' when they back it up with actual results because that's what everyone expects from a company, and I very much doubt that they will come through with that.

[figmentofmyass]

People are not investing on legal weed companies because they are making a lot of money, I think people are investing because there is a big high potential in the future of it.

Today it may not worth this much, maybe today it is overvalued a lot, however they believe that the first weed companies that are getting bigger each day can worth A LOT in the future, 10 years from now these companies will worth insane amounts and they are investing into that potential and not today's prices. I am not invested in them but if I ever did I would definitely invest for what it could be and not for what it is right now.

it's a real tossup at this point though, which is why the risk/reward on pot stocks is so high right now. it's super speculative, and the situation is so nascent that market share can change very quickly.

in a few years, we'll have a much clearer idea of who the dominant players in the industry are. investment will gravitate towards them, and the potential gains will get smaller over time.

The problem with these emerging stocks is that they are very difficult to price properly, because it's not just a matter of looking at the fundamentals and whatnot, but also the fact that in most cases 50% of their value is based on nothing but speculation, especially when you have retail investors jump on board like there is no tomorrow.

yeah, and i'd actually say more than 50% is speculation.

it's really difficult to say exactly how big the market will eventually be, or what the regulatory landscape will look like if/when the federal government establishes a regulatory regime. and it's becoming a highly competitive market for producers. i suspect most companies are overestimating the percentage of the market they can capture.

[wahyu wida]

I still wonder why there is a widely spread expectation that marijuana will be legalized in all US states.
This is 100% hype and nothing more.Even if marijuana gets legalized in the US,hundreds of new companies will enter this market and cut the market shares of Tilray and Canopy.
Those overpriced stocks are more shitty than all the shitty altcoins or ICO tokens.

of course, if legalized in all countries, it will become a big new market besides cryptocurrency. but i think it will certainly experience the same thing, namely pros and cons in various countries other than America

[jaysabi]

But on a regulated platform you can be certain the volumes and pricing are legitimate, which is not at all the case for crypto markets, especially those based in China.

I wouldn't necessarily call pricing and volumes over there legitimate, especially when you take into consideration that wash trading and front running of orders happens there as well, and the latter is technically not even a crime, legally speaking. The only difference is that the institutions participating in such activities know how to make it look natural, while in the crypto space (especially in China) no one even cares since the odds of being prosecuted for shady activity is close to zero.

The problem with these emerging stocks is that they are very difficult to price properly, because it's not just a matter of looking at the fundamentals and whatnot, but also the fact that in most cases 50% of their value is based on nothing but speculation, especially when you have retail investors jump on board like there is no tomorrow. We'll only find out whether or not current values are 'legitimate' when they back it up with actual results because that's what everyone expects from a company, and I very much doubt that they will come through with that.

Front running is illegal in the United States.

[darthmaul]

I'm interested in their long term profit potential.  

They're essentially taking over the weed business from drug cartels and organized crime in regions where legalization occurs. Its been estimated the US black market for weed is worth in excess of $50 billion. That could represent an upper tier for earnings growth over the next few decades if it gradually becomes more regulated.

There is also the potential for legal weed to takeover some of the markets enjoyed by big pharma. Things like aspirin and pharmaceutical remedies for many varying medical conditions would eventually be taken over by legalized marijuana.

The industry definitely has potential to sustain high growth.

When it comes to the pharmaceutical industries then worst to worst addiction becomes the medicine and I compare it with the money laundering stuff where you take your black money and turn into white one. Lolz.

Its clearly same thing as these things are very very expensive to grow and taken care of for the long terms. Its export and import is the most critical part of the whole process where pharmaceutical companies are ready to pay huge bucks over it because later on they make billion more profits from the final dosage form.

Off course these industries has to be mixed up with medicinal industries to have them as their investors.

[Lorna111]

Those overpriced stocks are more shitty than all the shitty altcoins or ICO tokens.

At least it is better than those shitcoins right now and is profitable despite the risk. Nevertheless, I also think that it's bull run would not last and buying in some of it at this point of time is a waste IMO.

Maybe those who sold their bitcoins used it to invest in this surging industry.

Only a part of it. Those who sold their bitcoins during the bullish season probably invested their money on other things beside marijuana unless they reinvested it on stocks before the bearish season started.

  Wow, this is something new... Maybe this is one of the reason why Government and the Financial Business World having under review/study the entry of Crypto to their country. We've seen the news fed on social media about hackers, Scammers, and the possible money Laundering using the platform of Crytpo Currency Market. Be on alert, and more careful on your investment.

[boyshx]

Interesting share prices but wait who told us that its the bitcoin money that went into them. 

How are we supposed to connect the dot here at all and come on it doesn't matter if they are listed pot over OTC exchanger and have gotten some spikes over the period of time. That dont make sense to me or either I am missing some point here.

That could be the real money thats getting flooded over their as their many more chance takers than just crypto geeks making his way into these companies to have bunch of profits. Any thoughts to clear my thoughts ?