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Author Topic: Found out where all the bitcoin money went...  (Read 253 times)
jaysabi
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September 19, 2018, 02:59:49 PM
Merited by The Pharmacist (1)
 #1

The newest fad volatile industry: marijuana stocks.

Gains over the last 5 days:
  • Tilray, Inc. 88.14% (112.65 to 211.95)
  • Canopy Growth Corporation 8.15% (50.075 to 54.16)
  • Aurora Cannabis Inc. 54.47% (6.189 to 9.56)
  • Aphira Inc.  7.64% (15.1608 to 16.32)

Gains over the last 30 days:
  • Tilray, Inc. 532.69% (33.50 to 211.95)
  • Canopy Growth Corporation 50.40% (36.01 to 54.16)
  • Aurora Cannabis Inc. 76.42% (5.419 to 9.56)
  • Aphira Inc.  94.75% (8.38 to 16.32)

Gains over the last 6 months:
  • Tilray, Inc. 846.63% (22.39 to 211.95)
  • Canopy Growth Corporation 109.92% (25.80 to 54.16)
  • Aurora Cannabis Inc. 15.46% (8.28 to 9.56)
  • Aphira Inc. 44.17% (11.32 to 16.32)

Yes, legal weed is currently in a bubble. People are being just as stupid here as they were with Bitcoin. Canopy currently has a market cap of $12.3 billion on sales TTM sales of just under $88 million. Tilray is far worse with a market cap of $19.7 billion on TTM sales of $27.6 million. Anyone buying Tilray at these prices is making an astoundingly risky bet for what I consider to be very limited upside. The other two companies, Aurora and Aphira, fund their operations by printing shares and devaluing current investors. I consider them to be the spam coin equivalent of the two larger companies. There are dozens of others, these are just four of the largest I consider to be the biggest players.
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The Pharmacist
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September 19, 2018, 03:10:12 PM
 #2

Holy cow, I didn't think any of those companies would be listed on any of the major exchanges.  I was wrong--I thought most of these pot stocks were only on the OTC exchange.

Anyway, it's a huge thing in the US now, although my state hasn't yet made marijuana completely legal.  It's a good thing that at least CBD was made legal so far.  As far as those stocks go, I agree that it's very much a fad and I wouldn't touch any of them until everything is settled and they're profitable.  I took a quick look at CGC and it looks like they're operating at a loss. 

Much like the internet stocks in the 90s, it's really risky when a company has LOTS of competition but no profits.  I'm assuming that with all the marijuana companies, there will be only one or two emerging as the leaders and the rest will be bought out or otherwise go out of business. 

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September 19, 2018, 03:27:27 PM
 #3

Extremely overpriced, I would advise everyone to stay far away from marijuana stocks.  "Once it becomes more legal and laws become more relaxed their profit margins will shrink to almost nothing since people will be able to easily grow their own.
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September 19, 2018, 03:32:25 PM
 #4

Holy cow, I didn't think any of those companies would be listed on any of the major exchanges.  I was wrong--I thought most of these pot stocks were only on the OTC exchange.

Anyway, it's a huge thing in the US now, although my state hasn't yet made marijuana completely legal.  It's a good thing that at least CBD was made legal so far.  As far as those stocks go, I agree that it's very much a fad and I wouldn't touch any of them until everything is settled and they're profitable.  I took a quick look at CGC and it looks like they're operating at a loss. 

Much like the internet stocks in the 90s, it's really risky when a company has LOTS of competition but no profits.  I'm assuming that with all the marijuana companies, there will be only one or two emerging as the leaders and the rest will be bought out or otherwise go out of business. 

Many pot stocks are OTC, however these four are all on major exchanges. None of these companies even service the US though due to federal drug laws, and to my knowledge, no domestic supplier is able to list their stock on an exchange for the same reason. Right now, you have Canopy and Aurora with the two largest production capacities, and CGC received a $4 billion investment from Constellation Brands (a very large liquor maker) earlier this year. Adding to the mania is that Coca-Cola has said they are "watching" this space and a couple other large alcohol companies are said to be weighing the benefits of acquiring one of these marijuana companies after the Constellation deal. (I believe Diageo is confirmed to be actively considering.)

All of that together has made this the new bubble as investors desperately try to FOMO their way into profits.

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September 19, 2018, 06:25:03 PM
 #5

The other two companies, Aurora and Aphira, fund their operations by printing shares and devaluing current investors. I consider them to be the spam coin equivalent of the two larger companies. There are dozens of others, these are just four of the largest I consider to be the biggest players.

I should have read all of this before trying for 10 minutes to understand those numbers and how and why they've grown  94.75% in 3 months and  44.17% in six.  Grin

But this is really a weird strategy, they are diluting their own shares if so and most of the money goes on acquisitions...

Quote
In January 2018, Aphria agreed to take over Broken Coast Cannabis, for $230 million in cash and stock
January 2018, Aphria agreed to buy Nuuvera, a Brampton-based cannabis company, for $826 million
In July 2018, Aphria announced it would acquire several South American cannabis companies for about $200 million

and this is only from wiki which sucks at financial stuff.
I really wonder who is putting that money in, 4 billion investment in a company based in a market that might reach 32 billion by 2022 is a bit of overkill.

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September 19, 2018, 06:37:06 PM
 #6

Cannabis industry is truly in a great bump, as you can see most of its stokes are sold in big markets. Thus industry is also making profit to the the holders and people are just supporting the legislation in a massive amount all over the world.
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September 19, 2018, 08:26:48 PM
 #7

The other two companies, Aurora and Aphira, fund their operations by printing shares and devaluing current investors. I consider them to be the spam coin equivalent of the two larger companies. There are dozens of others, these are just four of the largest I consider to be the biggest players.

I should have read all of this before trying for 10 minutes to understand those numbers and how and why they've grown  94.75% in 3 months and  44.17% in six.  Grin

But this is really a weird strategy, they are diluting their own shares if so and most of the money goes on acquisitions...

Quote
In January 2018, Aphria agreed to take over Broken Coast Cannabis, for $230 million in cash and stock
January 2018, Aphria agreed to buy Nuuvera, a Brampton-based cannabis company, for $826 million
In July 2018, Aphria announced it would acquire several South American cannabis companies for about $200 million

and this is only from wiki which sucks at financial stuff.
I really wonder who is putting that money in, 4 billion investment in a company based in a market that might reach 32 billion by 2022 is a bit of overkill.

Part of the reason these companies have to fund acquisitions through share issuance is because they are cut off from a lot of traditional loans and funding by virtue of their business. In the US, for example, none of these companies would be able to get a line of credit or even a bank account because any bank that deals with them would be violating federal law. So they fund acquisitions through the only currency they have available to them: their own stock. It makes sense logically, but it's not something you want to see as a stockholder because your ownership is being rapidly diluted.

As for the market potential, Canada is a very limited market (where these companies are based) but Tilray and Canopy have deals with European countries to export and Canopy is setting up overseas operations for a time when these countries would rather have domestic production over imports, so they are expanding their addressable markets. The US is a major untapped market but I feel like these prices already factor in full federal legalization and a mature market. The valuations are quite lofty.
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September 19, 2018, 09:24:39 PM
 #8

Yes, legal weed is currently in a bubble. People are being just as stupid here as they were with Bitcoin. Canopy currently has a market cap of $12.3 billion on sales TTM sales of just under $88 million. Tilray is far worse with a market cap of $19.7 billion on TTM sales of $27.6 million. Anyone buying Tilray at these prices is making an astoundingly risky bet for what I consider to be very limited upside.

it's certainly feeling like a bubble. it'll be interesting to see who emerges on top in a few years, when all the dust settles. tilray got way over-hyped because it was the first public pot stock on the nasdaq.

but like cryptocurrencies, the pot industry isn't going anywhere. at the state level, things have progressed past the point of no return. it's only a matter of time before the feds come around and reschedule cannabis. that'll probably cause another cycle of new investment.

Extremely overpriced, I would advise everyone to stay far away from marijuana stocks.  "Once it becomes more legal and laws become more relaxed their profit margins will shrink to almost nothing since people will be able to easily grow their own.

we are a very long way from market saturation. there is an incredible amount of new demand. it's actually fucking annoying as a consumer---like 80% of the people i see in the shops now are normie weekend warrior types who take forever at the counter because they've smoked weed like twice in their life.

and there's no way most people will ever grow their own. especially when you consider how hyper-consumerist society is now. growing takes months of preparation, hard work and often good luck (regarding weather, unless you have good indoor growing space).

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September 19, 2018, 09:31:30 PM
 #9

The newest fad volatile industry: marijuana stocks.
I didn't even know that Marijuana stocks are a thing, and before I know it, stupid fucks enter that market as well.

Yes, legal weed is currently in a bubble. People are being just as stupid here as they were with Bitcoin. Canopy currently has a market cap of $12.3 billion on sales TTM sales of just under $88 million. Tilray is far worse with a market cap of $19.7 billion on TTM sales of $27.6 million. Anyone buying Tilray at these prices is making an astoundingly risky bet for what I consider to be very limited upside. The other two companies, Aurora and Aphira, fund their operations by printing shares and devaluing current investors. I consider them to be the spam coin equivalent of the two larger companies. There are dozens of others, these are just four of the largest I consider to be the biggest players.
Insane stats, its a marijuana stock, so people would even bet their entire live savings on it.

Part of the reason these companies have to fund acquisitions through share issuance is because they are cut off from a lot of traditional loans and funding by virtue of their business. In the US, for example, none of these companies would be able to get a line of credit or even a bank account because any bank that deals with them would be violating federal law. So they fund acquisitions through the only currency they have available to them: their own stock. It makes sense logically, but it's not something you want to see as a stockholder because your ownership is being rapidly diluted.

As for the market potential, Canada is a very limited market (where these companies are based) but Tilray and Canopy have deals with European countries to export and Canopy is setting up overseas operations for a time when these countries would rather have domestic production over imports, so they are expanding their addressable markets. The US is a major untapped market but I feel like these prices already factor in full federal legalization and a mature market. The valuations are quite lofty.
Canada is definitely not the best markets for marijuana from what I have heard, US would be the best. But its a "federal crime". Lol. Just like the 9/11.

But don't worry, the majority of these marijuana stock investors would be from the US, they are just in disguise to protect themselves.


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September 19, 2018, 09:33:26 PM
 #10


but like cryptocurrencies, the pot industry isn't going anywhere. at the state level, things have progressed past the point of no return. it's only a matter of time before the feds come around and reschedule cannabis. that'll probably cause another cycle of new investment.



I'd say pot industry has better fundamentals than cryptocurrencies, millions of people were smoking weed illegally, now even more will join, especially as more states and governments legalize it. Maybe at some point weed will even flip alcohol as most common drug. Kinda hard to compare weeds adoption with cryptocurrency adoption when most of the coins have almost no users, and even popular coins mostly used only as speculative investment.

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September 19, 2018, 09:46:54 PM
 #11

Well, that might be usual bubble and TBH, those stock has no other features then rise or fall. IMHO weed fill sure not push America "forward". Whereas cryptocurrency already have features that can support the economy and change a lot of things in the world.
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September 19, 2018, 10:45:55 PM
 #12

I really don't like the way practically every industry is being invaded by blockchain, it is making a niche out of an already niche market, that is not how an industry should be build. Start with the core structures, and then expand to the periphery, that's what corporations do, and that's how Bitcoin would do best in terms of growth. Either way, the money moves into whatever is hot (at least in terms of speculation), if an ICO about high technology baby diapers had a huge token sale, you can bet that all related projects would spike too due to the grouping effect.

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September 19, 2018, 11:15:10 PM
 #13

Holy crap... I Never thought Marijuana industry could be so profitable.

Maybe those who sold their bitcoins used it to invest in this surging industry.

Unlike what happened with bitcoin, more and more countries are tolerating and legalising the use and distribution of marijuana.

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September 20, 2018, 11:49:37 AM
Merited by The Pharmacist (2)
 #14

I'm interested in their long term profit potential.  

They're essentially taking over the weed business from drug cartels and organized crime in regions where legalization occurs. Its been estimated the US black market for weed is worth in excess of $50 billion. That could represent an upper tier for earnings growth over the next few decades if it gradually becomes more regulated.

There is also the potential for legal weed to takeover some of the markets enjoyed by big pharma. Things like aspirin and pharmaceutical remedies for many varying medical conditions would eventually be taken over by legalized marijuana.

The industry definitely has potential to sustain high growth.

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September 21, 2018, 07:59:44 AM
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I'm interested in their long term profit potential.  

They're essentially taking over the weed business from drug cartels and organized crime in regions where legalization occurs. Its been estimated the US black market for weed is worth in excess of $50 billion. That could represent an upper tier for earnings growth over the next few decades if it gradually becomes more regulated.

that shouldn't be the ceiling, because prohibition has been capping demand for a long time. a lot of people who refused to buy on the street are now buying in the shops.

There is also the potential for legal weed to takeover some of the markets enjoyed by big pharma. Things like aspirin and pharmaceutical remedies for many varying medical conditions would eventually be taken over by legalized marijuana.

unfortunately, the opiate lobby and others have been fighting medical weed at every turn. the medical cannabis industry is somewhat of a misnomer---the doctors and prescriptions are legitimate, but it's completely separate from conventional medicine and pharmacies and there's no health coverage that covers it. it's pretty upsetting to think about the fact that the obamacare mandate forces people to buy health insurance even though it specifically doesn't cover their medicine.

things like CBD extracts are really powerful medicine for lots of serious medical problems, but predictably, not everyone who needs it can pay the 1000x markups that these weed companies are charging now.

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September 21, 2018, 08:34:26 AM
 #16

I'd say pot industry has better fundamentals than cryptocurrencies, millions of people were smoking weed illegally, now even more will join, especially as more states and governments legalize it. Maybe at some point weed will even flip alcohol as most common drug. Kinda hard to compare weeds adoption with cryptocurrency adoption when most of the coins have almost no users, and even popular coins mostly used only as speculative investment.
The advantage of a company is that you can track its profits and revenue streams to somewhat see if the price of a stock is fairly priced. With crypto there is no such a thing as that.

There isn't even such a thing as undervalued crypto currencies because there is nothing that tells you whether or not that's actually the case. People just look at the charts to see whether or not it's a good time to buy.

I seriously hope that alcohol will lose market share, especially with how most people don't realize how much more destructive it is. Unfortunately, I don't think I'll ever invest in any of the pot stocks.
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September 21, 2018, 11:59:54 AM
 #17

Notice how crypto-silent CNBC has been in the last couple of weeks with how these stocks went through the roof. Their famous Bitcoin ticker they used during their shows has gone as well for the most part. I'm glad that at least for now we don't have to deal with their muppet show again. It was really embarrassing because their presence causes more harm than good.

Average joes are fomo'ing hard on these so called pot stocks, just look at the search results of Tilray;

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=tilray

If people still believe that operating on a regulated platform helps reducing volatility, they are absolutely wrong.

davis196
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September 21, 2018, 12:38:30 PM
 #18

I still wonder why there is a widely spread expectation that marijuana will be legalized in all US states.
This is 100% hype and nothing more.Even if marijuana gets legalized in the US,hundreds of new companies will enter this market and cut the market shares of Tilray and Canopy.
Those overpriced stocks are more shitty than all the shitty altcoins or ICO tokens. Grin


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September 21, 2018, 12:49:55 PM
 #19

wow, this is really a new industry that i do not know. Nowadays young people are very fond of marijuana and this is one of the best industries. I would consider investing in this industry instead of investing in Crypto.
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September 21, 2018, 01:38:29 PM
 #20

Those overpriced stocks are more shitty than all the shitty altcoins or ICO tokens. Grin
At least it is better than those shitcoins right now and is profitable despite the risk. Nevertheless, I also think that it's bull run would not last and buying in some of it at this point of time is a waste IMO.
Maybe those who sold their bitcoins used it to invest in this surging industry.
Only a part of it. Those who sold their bitcoins during the bullish season probably invested their money on other things beside marijuana unless they reinvested it on stocks before the bearish season started.
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