UFC 229: Khabib vs McGregor Prediction and Info Thread

[tokeweed]

Btw, still no update about UFC embedded vlog series for UFC 229 on youtube?

Lol.  And why would you want Khabib to win?  The UFC is obv a lot more interesting with him around.  So I'm glad he signed up for another 6 fight deal.

And I can't help but notice some people underestimate McGregor.  He has beaten Holloway, Poirier, Mendes, Diaz and Aldo.  I'm sure I missed a fighter or two, but that's an impressive resumé imo.

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[justspare]

Wasn't khabib the guy mcgregor attacked at the bus incident? There is no explanations to this, either mcgregor was pushed to do some sort of media move and get more viewers by making a scene and creating troubles for himself and than fight would be watched more. Or since this already happened dana white probably said "well might as well" and just arranged a match between them.

I however did not know mcgregor used cocaine, that would make sense considering his constant edgy moves outside of the ring (well inside too tbh). If he is doing that than it must be stopped and fight should not go on, he should not fight ever again. It may kill him in the cage.

[tokeweed]

I hope this vid could give all of you some insight.  Dan Hardy really does a good job in making fight reviews and analysis.  Obv most of you don't follow the sport too closely, but hopefully you guys start doing so.  It's a good sport.

Enjoy. 

UFC 229:  Inside the Octagon - Khabib vs McGregor
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cVfAN_ix4Y

[Hydrogen]

Body language breakdown of Khabib/Conor press conference:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FcH9zEDzTg

Wasn't khabib the guy mcgregor attacked at the bus incident? There is no explanations to this, either mcgregor was pushed to do some sort of media move and get more viewers by making a scene and creating troubles for himself and than fight would be watched more. Or since this already happened dana white probably said "well might as well" and just arranged a match between them.

Yes, Khabib is who Conor targeted in the bus.

Khabib provoked that response by cornering & slapping Artem Lobov in New York(there's a clip of it on youtube). After that slap, Conor flew from ireland to NY and the bus incident happened. Conor and Artem Lobov are close teammates.

You could be right about the UFC trying to provoke these responses. When Darren Till and Tyron Woodley were scheduled to fight, the UFC put them in seats right next to each other when they both attended a UFC event(perhaps hoping to provoke an incident).

I however did not know mcgregor used cocaine

Conor doing cocaine/drugs is based off clips like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0WfCW4-DlM

[Vishnu.Reang]

Just six days to go for the match, and I haven't yet decided whether I should place the bets or not. I would like to bet in favor of Khabib Nurmagomedov, but the odds being offered by the major betting sites are not that attractive. Can anyone help me by providing some recommendations, if I want to bet for a Khabib win?

BTW, I heard that there was some controversy regarding Sean O’Malley?

[btctalk4life]

Btw, still no update about UFC embedded vlog series for UFC 229 on youtube?

Lol.  And why would you want Khabib to win?  The UFC is obv a lot more interesting with him around.  So I'm glad he signed up for another 6 fight deal.

And I can't help but notice some people underestimate McGregor.  He has beaten Holloway, Poirier, Mendes, Diaz and Aldo.  I'm sure I missed a fighter or two, but that's an impressive resumé imo.

Uh? I never said i want khabib to win, i'm even a McGregor fans dude and obviously want McGregor to win too against Khabib.

[tokeweed]

^  Oh you're a McGregor fans?    Kk sorry, I quoted the wrong post.  Lol.  I meant to quote this one:

Am I the only one who wants McGregor to lose?

Anyway, here are a couple of vids analyzing the press conference.  Now I know some of you Khabib fans will say they're biased, but I totally agreed with both the first time I saw them.  Everything McG does is calculated imo.  When he acts erratic, he makes you wanna think he's erratic.

UFC 229:  Presser Reaction
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xdrct5fwDAU

UFC 229:  Face Off Body Language Analysis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FcH9zEDzTg

And here's a bonus video.  Obv a promotional video.  Shows who the UFC wants to win...

The McGregor Lifestyle (Prolly trolling)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvOeYITMBaU

[NightSabre]

Had a look at the odds on offer at the moment, then got distracted by the margins for the outright markets

Nitrogensports = ~3%
Cloudbet = ~5%
Sportsbet.io = ~8%

Why are some much bigger than the others?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Had a look at the odds on offer at the moment, then got distracted by the margins for the outright markets

Nitrogensports = ~3%
Cloudbet = ~5%
Sportsbet.io = ~8%

Why are some much bigger than the others?

You’d have to ask them buddy but it’s totally up to them what odds they decide to give. Maybe the odds are influenced by bets that they have received (are receiving) on the outright result.

[bbc.reporter]

McGregor's only hope is if he takes this fight into his own game which he needs to be standing up right with both of his hands prepared to strike a KO, that is if he is smart to do so or if his body can, it also depends on how Khabib will play this out. McGregor is really the underdog here as his last match in the octagon being two years will really put him in a disadvantage in terms of experience and him having a big break in his pro mma career will also be a big factor as his fight IQ might not be as good as Khabib's. It would be a miracle to see him win this bout.

You are wrong. Khabib's fight IQ is very much lower than Conor's fight IQ. I am not telling you this because I like Conor more than Khabib, I like both of them. But Khabib is a 1 dimensional person, while Conor McGregor is a deep thinker and has studied more on the soft skills of martial arts and combat more than Khabib.

Conor is an open thinker and has used different techniques to improve his martial arts. An example of this is learning the movements of Ido Portal which as something that he was ridiculed in the MMA community. But it worked as witnessed in his fight versus Jose Aldo.

[Hydrogen]

Had a look at the odds on offer at the moment, then got distracted by the margins for the outright markets

Nitrogensports = ~3%
Cloudbet = ~5%
Sportsbet.io = ~8%

Why are some much bigger than the others?

Odds on books adjust up/down depending on individual betting volume.

Its identical to crypto exchanges offering different prices on bitcoin / alts depending on user demographics, regional demand, etc.

Nitrogensports 3% could mean it has the highest betting volume out of all 3 books. Cloudbet @ 5% could mean its betting volume ranks 2nd. Sportsbet.io at 8% could mean it has the lowest betting volume out of all 3 books. The book with the highest betting volume would probably be the most accurate representation for the same reasons poll data tracks towards being more accurate the higher the number of total people polled.

With the high number of variables and intangibles present in sports, its difficult to gauge the size of someone's heart, how badly they want to win. Its difficult to put a number on the amount of preparation someone has invested into a fight. So of course, accuracy is an ambiguous topic as far as betting odds go. Odds are like poll data, they can mimic public opinion. Books also have insider info a lot of the time which trends towards the empirical. Odds swings are like poll data though.

[darklus123]

McGregor's only hope is if he takes this fight into his own game which he needs to be standing up right with both of his hands prepared to strike a KO, that is if he is smart to do so or if his body can, it also depends on how Khabib will play this out. McGregor is really the underdog here as his last match in the octagon being two years will really put him in a disadvantage in terms of experience and him having a big break in his pro mma career will also be a big factor as his fight IQ might not be as good as Khabib's. It would be a miracle to see him win this bout.

You are wrong. Khabib's fight IQ is very much lower than Conor's fight IQ. I am not telling you this because I like Conor more than Khabib, I like both of them. But Khabib is a 1 dimensional person, while Conor McGregor is a deep thinker and has studied more on the soft skills of martial arts and combat more than Khabib.

Conor is an open thinker and has used different techniques to improve his martial arts. An example of this is learning the movements of Ido Portal which as something that he was ridiculed in the MMA community. But it worked as witnessed in his fight versus Jose Aldo.

I would disagree with this, Khabib for me is a very technical fighter and a strategic fighter as well. So for me in terms of IQ fighting they are just similar but differs on their strategy.

As you have said Conor is a deep thinker and a much risk taker, he is also known for psycho strategic fighter as he always loves to taunt his opponent and if Khabib will be affected by it then for sure Conor is on top.

[btctalk4life]

Btw, UFC 229 Embedded: Vlog Series - Episode 1 is up right now!! Check it here if you want to watch it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbPlIS87fMU

[Vishnu.Reang]

Obviously Khabib vs McGregor is the main attraction for UFC 229, but a few hours back I made a bet in favor of Alexander Volkov (his fight is with Derrick Lewis in the Heavyweight category). Volkov is the guy who KO-ed Fabrício Werdum a few months back.

[tokeweed]

Here are some picks from krach at his Degenbet channel at YT.  It's pretty helpful to get some additional bets in if you aren't sure about those other matches.  Enjoy.  

Krach UFC 229 Picks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECWotVSRm48

Degenbet UFC 229 Picks and More
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VahmL-v8WwQ

And the UFC part of the second vid starts at 31:30ish.  Although there some interesting picks on some football matches in there.  Thanks krach.

Oh and interesting take on the over 2.5... 

[darklus123]

Lol.  And why would you want Khabib to win?  The UFC is obv a lot more interesting with him around.  So I'm glad he signed up for another 6 fight deal.

And I can't help but notice some people underestimate McGregor.  He has beaten Holloway, Poirier, Mendes, Diaz and Aldo.  I'm sure I missed a fighter or two, but that's an impressive resumé imo.

We should really never under estimate this guy even if in the stats he is the underdog.

Indeed has a pretty good resume
Holloway vs Mcgregor - Impressive unanimous decision
Holloway vs Mcgregor 2 - Impressive unanimous decision
Buchinger vs Mcgregor - TKO
Brimage vs Mcgregor - TKO
Brandao vs Mcgregor - TKO
vs Siver - TKO
vs Mendez - TKO
vs ALDO - One Punch TKO
vs Alvarez - TKO
vs Brandao - TKO

If I am also not mistaken he was the first person who got a two division belt.

[tokeweed]

^  Alvarez!  That's the name I missed when I was thinking of the best opponents worthy to be mentioned in McGregor's resumé.  With Khabib I think he has like only a couple that's a worthy mention.  RDA, Barboza and Michael Johnson...?

[DarkDays]

McGregor definitely has a great resume, probably even better than Khabib, but he has been out of the MMA game for two years, that is a LONG time not to be in the Octagon with somebody. I think even somebody as cocky as McGregor is going to feel the pressure again, which will probably lead to him having a worse performance than people might expect. I am going to give it to Khabib by TKO later rounds.

[coolcoinz]

Btw, still no update about UFC embedded vlog series for UFC 229 on youtube?

Lol.  And why would you want Khabib to win?  The UFC is obv a lot more interesting with him around.  So I'm glad he signed up for another 6 fight deal.

And I can't help but notice some people underestimate McGregor.  He has beaten Holloway, Poirier, Mendes, Diaz and Aldo.  I'm sure I missed a fighter or two, but that's an impressive resumé imo.

He also got choked by diaz and lost. Mendez was punching him on the ground for a few min and left him a bloody eye. I think that Khabib having McGregor in the same position that Mendez had him would end the fight. Did you see him work? He's so methodical people hardly ever are able to defend. Let's not forget that Conor lost some fights in his career. It's 21-3 vs 26-0. I hope that Conor wins because I like his style but he's an underdog in this fight.

[btc_angela]

^  Alvarez!  That's the name I missed when I was thinking of the best opponents worthy to be mentioned in McGregor's resumé.  With Khabib I think he has like only a couple that's a worthy mention.  RDA, Barboza and Michael Johnson...?

Of course Conor will have a better resume specially when he became a champion. Everyone wanted a piece of his title, while Khabib is trying to get up to the ladder so he needs to fight 'some' opponents to be able to have a title shot.