Predictions if Bitcoin ETFs are approved

[munareal]

There are several groups trying to create cryptocurrency ETFs.What will happen to the value of bitcoin if Bitcoin ETFs are approved ?

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[Satish147]

There are several groups trying to create cryptocurrency ETFs.What will happen to the value of bitcoin if Bitcoin ETFs are approved ?

In the initial stage of approval of Bitcoin ETF, the price of Bitcoin may not reflect much because already everyone in loss and exhausted with cryptomarkets by investing their savings. And no one fall for bigger moves because that will lead to crashes ultimately. So everyone will make small moves and the price of Bitcoin also will start climbing slowly and will reach its ATH in near terms.

[Dukjila]

There are several groups trying to create cryptocurrency ETFs.What will happen to the value of bitcoin if Bitcoin ETFs are approved ?

Bitcoin-ETF will provoke more speculation and manipulation of its price.

The price of Bitcoin will rise to 15-18K, then the investors will want to fix the profit.

There will be a swing, with a greater price of Bitcoin, if the market capitalization increases.

[Marcel666]

I am personally not too optimistic about bitcoin ETF and it's effect on the market.
It would increase adoption but in the long run it would not have much of an impact on the price and value.
ETF only creates a safer investment option for big investors.

[131tc01n]

it may have a profound effect on the increase in bitcoin prices because people already know bitcoin technology further, they will again invest into bitcoin, if Bitcoin ETF is approved it is the beginning of a more like future 2017

[olarrtt]

Literally, ETF being approved is what everyone has been waiting for and I can assertain that for peeps that bought at 17-18k last year, they would want fast increase but there won't be that kinda rush,instead it will moon steadily.

[avikz]

There are several groups trying to create cryptocurrency ETFs.What will happen to the value of bitcoin if Bitcoin ETFs are approved ?

First understand the basics of ETF. There are several types of ETF but the major types are Physical and Synthetic. The physical ETF deals in real underlying asset, that means a physical ETF actually buys the underlying asset from the market. Whereas, a synthetic ETF usually deals in futures contracts of the underlying assets without actually buying the product from the market.

So you need to understand what kind of bitcoin ETF is actually being approved! If you see a synthetic bitcoin ETF has been approved, don't expect any impact on the market because the managing company is not going to buy any physical bitcoin. They will just buy bitcoin future contracts as an underlying asset.

However, if you see that a physical ETF has been approved, you can certainly expect a good spike in price because then physical bitcoins will be bought from the market by the managing company. It will create fresh fund inflow and increase the demand in the market.

I am not very optimistic with this ETF thing because several companies have shown their interest, but only Winklevoss ETF was the physical one. Rest all were synthetic.

[franky1]

as avikz hints with the physical ETF, expect a spike.

but to know the impact/magnitude. you need to first find the details.

unless you can look at the details of a ETF proposal to know how many coins its trust currently holds, how many shares it equates to.. to estimate how fast all them shares will get sold before the trust needs to buy another basket of btc to offer more shares... you have no way of even estimating
you just end up throwing a bunch of numbers in the air like confetti and just grabbing a random number.

it might be best for people to research

EG
take the winklevoss.. i remember years ago they had 200k coins in trust (1.2bill value today)

now imagine that of 320m americans only 32m customers of a certain investment company wanted to 10% diversify their investment

According to the research, the average retirement savings for families aged 50 to 55 is $124,831. For families aged 56 to 61, it's $163,577.
..
Americans in the early 40s have a median of just over $67,000,

lets call it 100k average .. so $10k is diversified for btc etf per person
.. thats $320,000,000,000 (320billion)

ok lets say only 1% diversified as BTC.. thats 32billion

ok so we know that if only 10% of a population (lowball)
and they only invest 1% of their funds into btc (lowball)

the amount of funds looking to buy a bitcoin ETF share is 26x more than the winkles currently have
screw it lts low ball it again. lets say its a 0.1% diversification into btc.

thats still 2.6x more demand than the winkles can offer. so the winkles will need to grab up another more than 300k coins just to meet the lowball demand of 32million retirement portfolios looking for 0.1% holding

[bangkecol]

There are several groups trying to create cryptocurrency ETFs.What will happen to the value of bitcoin if Bitcoin ETFs are approved ?

If it is true that bitcoin will be approved by the ETF, it will definitely have a big impact on the price of bitcoin, and the possibility of a price going back to the positive trend starts from the breakdown of the $ 10000 price and the next must be able to break in the $ 12000 area to start a new bullish trend.

[aqila baruroh]

I only think of two things if the ETF is approved. it will be the end of the bear market and the bull run will begin. although it doesn't have much influence, but I'm sure ETFs can increase the price of bitcoin.

[hase0278]

If I were you OP, I would not expect much from ETFs since they won't impact the market that much because:

only Winklevoss ETF was the physical one. Rest all were synthetic.

unless there will be another physical ETF in the future(that will be approved by SEC). Either way, the continuous stream of ETFs for bitcoin is a big help in speeding up the growth of its adoption rate even if they are not getting approved(since it greatly helps in spreading the existence of bitcoin through news).

[holzer]

Im sure we would see a nice little run up again if an ETF was approved, but Bakkt is a bigger deal and nobody seems to care. 

[TwSeventh]

There are several groups trying to create cryptocurrency ETFs.What will happen to the value of bitcoin if Bitcoin ETFs are approved ?

First understand the basics of ETF. There are several types of ETF but the major types are Physical and Synthetic. The physical ETF deals in real underlying asset, that means a physical ETF actually buys the underlying asset from the market. Whereas, a synthetic ETF usually deals in futures contracts of the underlying assets without actually buying the product from the market.

So you need to understand what kind of bitcoin ETF is actually being approved! If you see a synthetic bitcoin ETF has been approved, don't expect any impact on the market because the managing company is not going to buy any physical bitcoin. They will just buy bitcoin future contracts as an underlying asset.

However, if you see that a physical ETF has been approved, you can certainly expect a good spike in price because then physical bitcoins will be bought from the market by the managing company. It will create fresh fund inflow and increase the demand in the market.

I am not very optimistic with this ETF thing because several companies have shown their interest, but only Winklevoss ETF was the physical one. Rest all were synthetic.

for some people that know it,they will put it this way and won't make a rash decision.
but sadly,a lot of people that joined this cryptosphere do not really understand about this at all and when that thing comes true.
no matter what is it,the price will spike in a day or two then going down slowly again,because peoples are expecting a quick money and they will shill it as much as they can to gain a profit.

[btc_angela]

There are several groups trying to create cryptocurrency ETFs.What will happen to the value of bitcoin if Bitcoin ETFs are approved ?

For the sake of argument, let's say SEC really approved the ETF, we might see big money flowing we might even break the 5 digit barrier again. But still the question this new money flowing in for long term or just to take advantage of the situation and the next thing we know the price goes down again? That's what I'm afraid for if ETF gets approved. We might see artificial pump that can hurt the market in the long run.

[exstasie]

For the sake of argument, let's say SEC really approved the ETF, we might see big money flowing we might even break the 5 digit barrier again. But still the question this new money flowing in for long term or just to take advantage of the situation and the next thing we know the price goes down again? That's what I'm afraid for if ETF gets approved. We might see artificial pump that can hurt the market in the long run.

On approval, I'd expect a short-lived pump. But the pump will come from existing traders whose liquidity is already on spot exchanges, not from Wall Street or anything like that. It's still essentially a "sell the news" event and I doubt the rally will sustain into a new ATH or anything.

It's not like the ETF will be immediately launched at that time. Even if the ETF were approved tomorrow, the infrastructure still isn't there for sustainable institutional investment. I also suspect that larger institutional players would patiently wait for the opportunity to accumulate, rather than fomo'ing into a news rally.

[Theb]

I see no long-term effect when Bitcoin ETFs are approve but I do agree with everyone who will say that it will create a minor price rally during the first few days/weeks when the announcement of approval is release and that is because a lot of people will see this as good news and traders (especially the whales) will use this to pump the prices up, it can be short or it can be long just what we have seen last December but to see if there will be long term positive effect on its fundamentals I doubt there will be even one.

[rodalutor]

I do not see the connect between an ETF being approved and the price of BTC increasing. It's much like futures in that no bitcoin change hands therefore there needs to be some knock-on that causes people to buy BTC for there to be any expected increase. All I see is that less people may buy BTC because instead they can just speculate using the ETF without needing to own any actual coins.

[chickenado]

I see no long-term effect when Bitcoin ETFs are approve but I do agree with everyone who will say that it will create a minor price rally during the first few days/weeks when the announcement of approval is release and that is because a lot of people will see this as good news and traders (especially the whales) will use this to pump the prices up, it can be short or it can be long just what we have seen last December but to see if there will be long term positive effect on its fundamentals I doubt there will be even one.

There will be a huge demand increase from a lot of traders who used to discover how important bitcoin as an asset. Hopefully we'll be able to see the better effect on our lives, since the market tries to recover day by day yet struggles with the bearish market. Good news will spread around the globe and then it creates positive impact once this ETF will be successful and surely price increase will follow through.

[Mobius]

An ETF approval will start a new bull rally IMO. I think we can hit a new ATH

[bittraffic]

Literally, ETF being approved is what everyone has been waiting for and I can assertain that for peeps that bought at 17-18k last year, they would want fast increase but there won't be that kinda rush,instead it will moon steadily.

I don't think ETF will make price move up suddenly but its going to be grow eventually more than $20k.
Those investors who had bought at such price I think had dumped their coins long time before the price dip to $10,000. but it must be good if they buy back now at least they will still have the BTC which the price possibilities are much higher.