A Little Example How Matingale Doesn't Work Even In Sportsbetting and Trading

[SyGambler]

Well done on this demonstration, Sy! Sorry didn't see it earlier but this is just one of many prime examples of how you could very easily and very quickly bust on martingale with sportsbetting.

The best tipsters never martingale, they may increase units bets occasionally when they see really good odds on an outcome they're confident in but it's consistency that good tipsters seek, not the eventuality of picking the right favourite.

Doing martingale on sports also tempts you to look for odds rather than go for the matches you know well... And that's leaving it to luck, which really isn't how a tipster works.

For me, sportsbetting relies on a small selection of sports or games and predicting the form of a player or team over the long term.

yeah mate , actually some of the tipsters I follow use a scale between 1 to 10 for the games they choose so followers can know how much to bet and not keep betting the same amount over and over again
obviously when a tipster sees more value he should ask followers to bet more , but thats not martingale as he won't do that to chase the previous loss

[adaseb]

The reason why Martingale is heavily used in dice is because most people (myself included) don't think its possible to hit 15+ losses in a row. We basically do the rough probability in our heads and realise that, its most likely not going to happen anytime soon.

Basically what are the chances of getting 5 losses in a row? 1 in 32
Seems like its pretty common

What are the chances of getting 10 losses in a row? 1 in 1024
Seems like its a rare chance.

What about 15 losses in a row? 1 in 32,768?
Seems like impossible to hit.

So basically we think that, "I will only do 100 rolls or less, its not practical for me to lose 15 times in a row" and basically the method works until it doesn't.

I didn't take into account house edge but it would only slightly skew the results, the general probability is still accurate.

[rickadone]

I think it's a double-edged sword where you or the casino, in this case, the bookmaker, is at risk, of losing or winning. If you managed to try it, it's not always bad but having every bet losing? It's a low chance event, but it could happen still. As you said, it's a lesson that everyone should understand and not just try immediately. If someone is planning to do it, try doing a calculated martingale or somewhat modified to your liking, not only directly multiplying by two.

The thing is that at the end long streaks of losses are bound to take you out eventually anyway as you keep trying to chase winning and then losing more just to recover the first. At the end you are more like doubling your chances of losing more every time you use the martingale strategy or any strategy at all when it comes to gambling.

I like the fact that the OP also made mention of trading which I believe most people who trade today simply does not even have any strategy to trade at all, and with that they are just gambling, and if the strategy anyone would ever come with when it comes to trading is martingale strategy, they are just going to get ruined eventually, most especially if it is even marginal trading.

[buwaytress]

Well done on this demonstration, Sy! Sorry didn't see it earlier but this is just one of many prime examples of how you could very easily and very quickly bust on martingale with sportsbetting.

The best tipsters never martingale, they may increase units bets occasionally when they see really good odds on an outcome they're confident in but it's consistency that good tipsters seek, not the eventuality of picking the right favourite.

Doing martingale on sports also tempts you to look for odds rather than go for the matches you know well... And that's leaving it to luck, which really isn't how a tipster works.

For me, sportsbetting relies on a small selection of sports or games and predicting the form of a player or team over the long term.

yeah mate , actually some of the tipsters I follow use a scale between 1 to 10 for the games they choose so followers can know how much to bet and not keep betting the same amount over and over again
obviously when a tipster sees more value he should ask followers to bet more , but thats not martingale as he won't do that to chase the previous loss

Yeah, I find that most tipsters don't reveal the units or scales for betting, which for me isn't really helpful because a winning percentage simply isn't enough, especially when you've got no way to find out what the odds were or the unit of bets were. Digging deeper you find some tipsters have a higher percentage of wins on very low payouts - which of course just means they pick the bookie favourite more often.

Good luck on finding your value and +EV. I'm also always on the lookout. I know over the long run I don't particularly do well, but I do tend to make good small profits by taking enhanced odds or backing a single player/team when I feel they're on fire.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

None of these so called strategies are ever sure fire ways to win time after time. I’ve never seen a broke bookie or casino & that’s for a reason. So many people think they can beat the system & sure it might work for a period but long term gambling is, well, gambling.

Enjoy your times of winning but don’t be stupid & only gamble with what you can afford to lose. No strategy will keep you in the green forever.

[Betwrong]

The reason why Martingale is heavily used in dice is because most people (myself included) don't think its possible to hit 15+ losses in a row. We basically do the rough probability in our heads and realise that, its most likely not going to happen anytime soon.

Basically what are the chances of getting 5 losses in a row? 1 in 32
Seems like its pretty common

What are the chances of getting 10 losses in a row? 1 in 1024
Seems like its a rare chance.

What about 15 losses in a row? 1 in 32,768?
Seems like impossible to hit.

So basically we think that, "I will only do 100 rolls or less, its not practical for me to lose 15 times in a row" and basically the method works until it doesn't.

I didn't take into account house edge but it would only slightly skew the results, the general probability is still accurate.

Yes, it's accurate and I agree that the 1% house edge can be neglected in such calculations. Contrary to popular belief, house edge doesn't play that big of a part, especially if it's only 1%. For example with wagered amount of 1.5 BTC  on one dice site my negative profit should be -0.015 BTC because of their HE. But in fact it is over than -0.05 BTC, mostly because of my unfortunate use of martingale.

What about 15 losses in a row? 1 in 32,768?
Seems like impossible to hit.

So basically we think that, "I will only do 100 rolls or less, its not practical for me to lose 15 times in a row" and basically the method works until it doesn't.

Indeed it is unlikely to hit 15 reds in row playing with 49.5% win chance within 100 rolls. However, with the help of dice bots people are making dozens of thousands rolls within one day. And then they are surprised at losing the entire bankroll! It should come as no shock actually.

[DarkDays]

No betting strategy works in the long term, they tend to be based on predicted or statistical outcomes, rather than looking at the cold hard odds. All you can do is minimize your risk, most casinos have table limits in place preventing you from really bending the odds to your favor. People should think of betting strategies as loss minimization strategies, rather than winning strategies, because in the end you will eventually lose.

[JanpriX]

A simple merit thrown at your way as a gesture of gratitude for this example.  Why did I say that? That's because many people started a thread like this and almost all of them are with the same topic/concept/idea regarding gambling and martingale but what separated this thread from those generic ones are the examples (screenshots) that he provided. With those screenshots, he provided the evidence that we need to check to verify if his claims are indeed applicable and correct in real life. Those losses are real and proved it point that a losing streak will always graze your path as a gambler and if you're using martingale, you'll definitely lose huge amount of money and will be in deep sh*t.

Good job mate. 

[swogerino]

I don't believe in Martingale too in Sportsbetting and the reason is not that you cannot win in the long run with it but it simply isn't worth it. Some persons on gambling forums in the internet has said to always play the same team with odds of 2.5 whenever it has these odds, and also to keep chasing it, even if it is a team that rarely wins, they say you should hunt them even when playing outside their home with odds like 7.5 and you can use double chance to make it more than 2.

Still I don't think it is worth to risk your bankroll to chase a single win.

[SyGambler]

None of these so called strategies are ever sure fire ways to win time after time. I’ve never seen a broke bookie or casino & that’s for a reason. So many people think they can beat the system & sure it might work for a period but long term gambling is, well, gambling.

Enjoy your times of winning but don’t be stupid & only gamble with what you can afford to lose. No strategy will keep you in the green forever.

while yeah I haven't seen a broke bookie but that doesn't mean that beating them is impossible
there are plenty of professional sportsbettors around , and in this example actually you can see that the tipster had decent ROI over a decent large sample of picks

[leowonderful]

Interesting read. I've used the martingale method in the past with sportsbetting, trading, and dice, yet it's never qutie worked out for me. I always lost money from going on long loss streaks, and I ended up never using the method again. This was back in 2015, and from that point on I always just gambled without using specific, rigid methods, and I've had more fun since then. I know many sites lure in newbies claiming that Martingale and other methods are legitimate based off of crude and often wrong math, but hopefully this thread clears things up and helps people realize that such methods generally don't work.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

but also I saw many comments were people were saying that martingale can only be profitable if someone used it with +EV games , like sportsbetting or trading

I am amazed at how people believe stupid things. If you are able to play EV+ in EV+ games, why the hell are going to try martingale?

AND CONGRATULATIONS YOU JUST BUSTED AROUND 2 MILLIONS CHASING AND TRYING TO WIN 100 !!!!

That’s the main point, increased risk for reduced profit (compared to the risk, although the potential profit remains the same every bet).

But you know what? People will keep trying martingale, no matter how well you explain it and how many times.

[SyGambler]

I am amazed at how people believe stupid things. If you are able to play EV+ in EV+ games, why the hell are going to try martingale?

yeah mate you can check the threads here in the forum that discuss martingale and you would see many people mentioning that maringale doesn't work just because the game has -EV but it will work with other types of gambling
and as I remember I said in the past if martingale do really work with +EV games then you would see poker players doing it as well , like playing certain heads up sit n go and if they lose they enter a double buy in game and so on but we all know that professional players stick to the same buy in level that they are playing till they win a certain amount of money then they move up the stakes when they have bigger bankroll to afford the run

so it doesn't work with trading , sportsbetting and poker even if the one using it is really good with what he is doing

[Whosdaddy]

so we all know how many topics were created here about martingale , and I guess the majority agreed that it's impossible to win with it longterm when the players are using it with dice or any other -EV game

but also I saw many comments were people were saying that martingale can only be profitable if someone used it with +EV games , like sportsbetting or trading
many people started to mention that in the mega threads about martingale without even realizing how bad it's

in this thread I will try to make it clear how martingale is the worst thing to do even if you are a good sportsbettor or trader

as you know I follow sportstipsters and recently one of the tipsters I follow had a terrible downswing where he just couldn't pick a winner for 16 picks in a row !!

here is a screenshot for the run he/they had :
https://prnt.sc/kxnxt2

so let's assume you are following them with 100 units bankroll , so if you are betting 100 a game you should have 10,000 bankroll

Bet 1 : X1.95   Staked 100         result -100

Bet 2 : X3.95   Staked 67.797    results -167.797

Bet 3 : X1.83   Staked 322.647   results -490.444

Bet 4 : X1.88   Staked 670.959   results -1,161.403

Bet 5 : X2.36   Staked 927.502   results -2,088.905

Bet 6 : X1.76  Staked  2,880.138 results -4,969.043

Bet 7 : X1.87  Staked  5,826.900  results -10,795.943

Busted the whole bankroll , but let's assume the bettor has money lets see how bad chasing that 100 profit will cost him

Bet 8 : X3.40  Staked  4.539.976  results -15,335.919

Bet 9 : X2.00  Staked  15,335.919  results -30,671.838

Bet 10 : X2.19 Staked 25,858.687  results  -56,530.525

Bet 11 : X1.65 Staked 87,123.884  results  -143,654.409

Bet 12 : X2.34 Staked 107,279.410 results -250,933.819

Bet 13 : X2.50 Staked 167,355.879 results -418,289.698

Bet 14 : VOID

Bet 15 : X2.06 Staked 394,707.262 results -812,996.960

Bet 16 : X1.80 Staked 1,016,371.200 results -1,829,368.160


AND CONGRATULATIONS YOU JUST BUSTED AROUND 2 MILLIONS CHASING AND TRYING TO WIN 100 !!!!


now of course some people may say that no it works , but this tipster may be extremly bad
the answer is no !! the tipster is really good and he is profitable over the long run

here is a screenshot for the overall stats
https://prnt.sc/kxo4l9

so you can see that this tipster is actually profitable and if you followed him betting the way he bets you would end up profiting


so I hope some of people here learned a lesson , the way to win in sportbetting and trading is simply to make good bets and trades
you should stick to strict bankroll management and in case you are really betting or trading good you will end up profiting

so martingale is a big NO , chasing the past loss is way too dangerous

also you may say this run is rare , but the tipster confirmed that it's normal and it usually happens once a year ( sometimes twice ) so can you really afford losing that big and busting your bankroll once a year ??

At the end of the day, as long as you are using martingale to gamble, whether it is real gambling, sport betting, or trading as you so called it, at the end of the day, you are still going to lose as you keep moving on.

Someone made an analogy like for instance, you betting 1 satoshi and increasing your bet if you lose every time simply shows, you keep doubling your chances to lose everything quickly over just 1 satoshi winning and looking at the profit and loss ratio when it comes to gambling or martingale, it is something that no one in their sane mind should ever believe would work for them in anything.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

... I remember I said in the past if martingale do really work with +EV games then you would see poker players doing it as well , like playing certain heads up sit n go and if they lose they enter a double buy in game and so on but we all know that professional players stick to the same buy in level that they are playing till they win a certain amount of money then they move up the stakes when they have bigger bankroll to afford the run

Absolutely, I’ve been a member of a couple of poker forums for a while and I read others, like twoplustwo, and I’ve never seen anyone recommending martingale, not even trying it.

[kurian]

~
When doing martingale we often forgets to stop when we are facing too much loses in a row.

Actually, we don't forget, but rather we don't want to stop because we already lost a lot and we want to recover with the next bet which we think should be a winning one. I know this from my own experience, it's impossible to stop when you lost almost half of your bankroll.

As you said, optimism in us makes us to bet more in hope of winning the next one. Keep trying will give us a win sooner or later but, to cover the loses we should have a huge bankroll which is not possible for normal gamblers to keep.

Many people talk about huge bankroll which is needed for martingale to be successful, but few of them realize that even very big one wouldn't save them from losing all their balance in a matter of seconds. For example, with just one satoshi as initial bet you can lose over 1.3 BTC when hitting 27 reds in a row.

I agree with you. Even if we are trying to get a small profit on martingale, we are risking a large amount for that.The hope to recover all the risked amount we keep on playing and end up busting entire balance.

[wxa7115]

This is a very good post by the OP, this shows to everyone that having a winning system at gambling or at any other activity is simply not enough, you need to manage your risk as well and martingale is probably the worst thing that you can do for your risk, for example one of the very first things that you're going to learn if you read a good book about trading is that you need to keep your losses small, once you lose you need to accept that fact, it seems to me that those that like to apply the martingale system do it because they simply cannot accept that they lost a bet or a trade and that is ridiculous, because there is no trader or gambler that wins every single time, as long as you win more than what you lose and you manage your risk effectively you will earn money.

[Symphonized]

Im just speculous about someone even trying to make it work...

Off course it would not been possible according with those facts.

[nydiacaskey01]

If it doesn't work on games like dice and color games where they claim martingale works but it doesn't, why try it out on sports betting and specially in trading. In trading, it requires technical analysis and thorough research. It may require a good strategy on when to buy and when to sell but definitely I will not Buy or Sell because of martingale strategy. It just doesn't make sense if used in trading specially on a bear market that we are experiencing right now.

[Sengoko]

so we all know how many topics were created here about martingale , and I guess the majority agreed that it's impossible to win with it longterm when the players are using it with dice or any other -EV game

but also I saw many comments were people were saying that martingale can only be profitable if someone used it with +EV games , like sportsbetting or trading
many people started to mention that in the mega threads about martingale without even realizing how bad it's

in this thread I will try to make it clear how martingale is the worst thing to do even if you are a good sportsbettor or trader

as you know I follow sportstipsters and recently one of the tipsters I follow had a terrible downswing where he just couldn't pick a winner for 16 picks in a row !!

here is a screenshot for the run he/they had :
https://prnt.sc/kxnxt2

so let's assume you are following them with 100 units bankroll , so if you are betting 100 a game you should have 10,000 bankroll

Bet 1 : X1.95   Staked 100         result -100

Bet 2 : X3.95   Staked 67.797    results -167.797

Bet 3 : X1.83   Staked 322.647   results -490.444

Bet 4 : X1.88   Staked 670.959   results -1,161.403

Bet 5 : X2.36   Staked 927.502   results -2,088.905

Bet 6 : X1.76  Staked  2,880.138 results -4,969.043

Bet 7 : X1.87  Staked  5,826.900  results -10,795.943

Busted the whole bankroll , but let's assume the bettor has money lets see how bad chasing that 100 profit will cost him

Bet 8 : X3.40  Staked  4.539.976  results -15,335.919

Bet 9 : X2.00  Staked  15,335.919  results -30,671.838

Bet 10 : X2.19 Staked 25,858.687  results  -56,530.525

Bet 11 : X1.65 Staked 87,123.884  results  -143,654.409

Bet 12 : X2.34 Staked 107,279.410 results -250,933.819

Bet 13 : X2.50 Staked 167,355.879 results -418,289.698

Bet 14 : VOID

Bet 15 : X2.06 Staked 394,707.262 results -812,996.960

Bet 16 : X1.80 Staked 1,016,371.200 results -1,829,368.160


AND CONGRATULATIONS YOU JUST BUSTED AROUND 2 MILLIONS CHASING AND TRYING TO WIN 100 !!!!


now of course some people may say that no it works , but this tipster may be extremly bad
the answer is no !! the tipster is really good and he is profitable over the long run

here is a screenshot for the overall stats
https://prnt.sc/kxo4l9

so you can see that this tipster is actually profitable and if you followed him betting the way he bets you would end up profiting


so I hope some of people here learned a lesson , the way to win in sportbetting and trading is simply to make good bets and trades
you should stick to strict bankroll management and in case you are really betting or trading good you will end up profiting

so martingale is a big NO , chasing the past loss is way too dangerous

also you may say this run is rare , but the tipster confirmed that it's normal and it usually happens once a year ( sometimes twice ) so can you really afford losing that big and busting your bankroll once a year ??

Anyone who needs examples or explanation on why martingale doesn't work doesn't really know what martingale is. Anyone with their right mind knows what martingale is and how you can lose if you can't win couple times in a row. If you don't win 17 wagers in a row do you really believe martingale can save you? No chance.

If you want to win with gambling work than go and start your own casino or invest in an already successful and trusted casino, there is no other way of winning for sure in gambling. House always wins is a saying not just for intimidation but for mathematical reasons. Martingale works until it doesn't.