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Author Topic: Elliott wave analysis?  (Read 1084 times)
Sargasm
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October 31, 2011, 02:45:00 AM
 #1

Does anyone here do their own elliott wave analysis?

I've been tinkering with it and finding that after a pretty short while, it's reasonably accurate IF you're correctly identifying trends.  For instance, when and which waves to identify and whether to consider them bull or bear (which again has to do with identifying the trend).

Seems to make sense as a method for quantifying the movement of waves as a factor of market psychology.  I'm sure you could lose your shirt acting on it as if it is the holy grail though.
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ElectricMucus
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October 31, 2011, 03:01:05 AM
 #2

IMO the Elliott Wave is more like a fancy trendline.

You could also use the Blancmange curve or the Weierstrass function.  
At best one would enumerate all such possible curves and iterate over them until the best match for the existing data is found.

It's just where it's coming from, an Economist not a mathematician why it is so popular among some people, like any fringe. So they all stick with it instead looking for something that would result in a more systematic approach. Wink

A major critique point is that any wave theory now lacks an indicator of it's reliability over time, that would be the most important improvement so you can hedge your risk accordingly.


But in the end, breakout from a stable condition is a non-linear phenomena and thus inherently prone to chaos.
To put this into perspective: A trade of just 0.1 btc at a certain point can result in the market shoot up 20% or drop 30% one second later.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
Sargasm
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October 31, 2011, 03:06:10 AM
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That's kind of what I've been using it for.  Right now I'm hedging about 50% on any bull or bear trends I see and I'm coming out ahead a few percent over a couple dozen trades.  

That could easily be dumb luck given that my perspective is only a couple weeks of trading on speculation.

I don't intend to speculate for the long term, if I feel that trend is stabilized I intend to stay in BTC as a hedge against inflation with USD.  In the short run, I'm just allowing this to instruct me in investment devices that up until recently, I was completely ignorant on.

Don't have to be no accredited investor to lose all your money in BTC!

[edit] misspelled lose.  like a rockstar.
Sargasm
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October 31, 2011, 03:12:00 AM
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Also... watching the delta of bid volume on mt. gox seems like a fantastically effective short term predictor of price volatility.  Seems like the bid volume could couple with trade data to provide far far better insight into market changes by offering a lead on buyer psychology instantaneously.
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October 31, 2011, 07:24:40 AM
 #5

I am using standard technical indicators and Elliott wave analysis successfully for bitcoin as well as stocks and metal forecasts.

I.e. I just published a stock market chart indicating that we are likely in a third of a third wave down which is usually the strongest.

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/stocks-metals-etc.html

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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Elwar
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October 31, 2011, 11:47:20 AM
 #6

I use this graph:

_/\_   /\    _
      \/   \/


It has been accurate so far.

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Pool your bitcoins with others. Vote on solutions using the Bitcoin blockchain. Keep your bitcoins in your cold storage until you find a solution you like.
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Sargasm
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November 01, 2011, 02:47:46 PM
 #7

I use this graph:

_/\_   /\    _
      \/   \/


It has been accurate so far.

Has the nobel committee been notified?
S3052
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November 01, 2011, 09:12:44 PM
 #8

Fantastic. We should call this the "ELWAR WAVE THEORY" :-)

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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