The price of capitulation

[fabiorem]

As you all know, we are in a multi-year bear market, very similar, in form and content, to the one of 2013-2015.

Recently we had bearish news in CNBC, which indicates a capitulation is near. Perhaps we are already in capitulation phase and the sheeple are already selling and going back to their hyper-regulated stock markets.

I created this pool to collect some opinions.

[YuginKadoya]

Like you have said it will be a long year for the bearish market to settle, I really think it will still linger until the next year of December of 2019 and we will have an unusual increase before that, But we can not have a bull market at that time but a normal market, as usual, But as I said time can really tell this is only a speculation But I can be very wrong about this, But that is what I think about the bearish market as we will continue to feel it up to the year of 2019 we can just wait and see and hodl for too long until the bull starts to run.

[pooya87]

As you all know, we are in a multi-year bear market, very similar, in form and content, to the one of 2013-2015.

you are the only one who "knows" this! or at least thinks he does. otherwise there is no indication of this being "multi" year bear market. in fact the current trend looks more like the end of the bear market in 2015 when price was at $220 bottom.

Recently we had bearish news in CNBC, which indicates a capitulation is near.

the only thing CNBC proves is that they are spreading nonsense based on the short term market trends. if price goes up to $7100 they will start singing the moon song. it is not indicating anything
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5037823.0;all

Perhaps we are already in capitulation phase and the sheeple are already selling and going back to their hyper-regulated stock markets.

the sheeple left when price dropped 70% there aren't that many left anymore.

I created this pool to collect some opinions.

your poll options are limited to your opinion with the biased assumption that price is gonna fall! none of them are the options that i would choose.

[Wind_FURY]

"Capitulation" does not happen because some random price support was broken. I believe it starts to happen when everyone suffers a series of "fake FOMO" followed by market "corrections", that is overloading us with disappointment.

Capitulation of course is what the WHALECUMULATORS want! Once they sense that everyne has given up and starts to short the market, they have their people in the SEC approve the ETF and send Bitcoin to $15,000. Hahaha.

[Pursuer]

Capitulation of course is what the WHALECUMULATORS want! Once they sense that everyne has given up and starts to short the market, they have their people in the SEC approve the ETF and send Bitcoin to $15,000. Hahaha.

it doesn't have to be either SEC or their ETFs for the beginning of the rise. did we have the SEC when price was stuck at $200 in 2015 and people were talking about "capitulation" and were giving up on bitcoin? or did we have the SEC when price was at $10 and people were saying price has gone up long enough and it is time for bitcoin to die?

[figmentofmyass]

As you all know, we are in a multi-year bear market, very similar, in form and content, to the one of 2013-2015.

that's what i was betting on a few months ago. but this ranging in the $6000 area quite reminds me of ranging in the $200s in 2015. a multi-year bear market would be appropriate, but it's not set in stone.

Recently we had bearish news in CNBC, which indicates a capitulation is near. Perhaps we are already in capitulation phase and the sheeple are already selling and going back to their hyper-regulated stock markets.

I created this pool to collect some opinions.

if you end up being right about a multi-year bear, i'd bet on "$2800 by mid-december" being the closest. in 2014, we had ~ a year of bear, then ~ a year of sideways. $3000 looks like a magnet, and any good capitulation should wick below support.

[El duderino_]

i will always hodl either way ,but i do not understand why there are always comparisons with what happened last bear markets/in the past.... and why so many thinking it will go the same way over and over again , this is still BTC a complete new tech/assest/currencie with always new people/players in the market ,USER count increasing ....
but as we all now price discovery all the way for foreseeable future
and fools and there BTC are easily parted offcourse

[TravelMug]

As you all know, we are in a multi-year bear market, very similar, in form and content, to the one of 2013-2015.

Recently we had bearish news in CNBC, which indicates a capitulation is near. Perhaps we are already in capitulation phase and the sheeple are already selling and going back to their hyper-regulated stock markets.

I created this pool to collect some opinions.

I'm not really sure if CNBC is a best source about crypto though, just like any news outlet out there, they're just going with the flow. I mean they will report what's very obvious with just few analysis here and there.

As for people going back to stocks, I don't think so, this is where the money is and its too late to go back then because the bear season is almost over though. So it doesn't make sense at all to go back to stocks market at this point.

[fabiorem]

I'm not really sure if CNBC is a best source about crypto

Its not. Its just a contrary indicator.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I guess it’s time to accumulate even more. I’m subscribed to various Youtube channels and all of them have been saying that bitcoin is going to go up soon for a while. Some of them interview experts and have the same opinion. So, if people start believing that the bear market will last, I think it is time to buy (more).

[Febo]

How that you not have anything between 2800 and 4800. Dont you think that is a huge price difference?  Also what if people believe that bottoms will happen at different months? This two reasons can give me option or to vote for most similar option as is my prediction or not to vote at all. I will decide for this in upcoming days.

[1Referee]

i do not understand why there are always comparisons with what happened last bear markets/in the past.... and why so many thinking it will go the same way over and over again

Well, there isn't much else than the history that you can look into, and in some cases the past is actually a decent indicator with how we are more or less dealing with similar cycles year after year.

The thing with people looking at the previous bear market is that they ignore that MtGox was a major contributor to how low we have fallen at that point, and think we're heading towards the same correction percentage wise. Back then the market was legit a complete mess, while right now we have booked more progress in one single year than all the previous years combined, and there is much more to come.

I don't think we'll ever see the price below $5000 again. If it does, I'll go fucking nuts and buy as many coins as I can.

[Harlot]

Perhaps we are already in capitulation phase and the sheeple are already selling and going back to their hyper-regulated stock markets.

How you describe the stock market makes me think that the price action happening their is a controlled event when the truth is it is not as this stocks are based on the company's performance and it works independently without the help of the government. We cannot be sure as maybe the capitulation ended when Bitcoin has reached 5,900$ this year. Don't get me wrong we are still in the bear market but I don't see BTC going below 6,000$ again at least for this month, maybe next month when the consolidation is weak.

[exstasie]

i will always hodl either way ,but i do not understand why there are always comparisons with what happened last bear markets/in the past.... and why so many thinking it will go the same way over and over again

Because history doesn't repeat, but it tends to rhyme. It's true for all speculative markets, not just Bitcoin.

2018 won't look like 2014. In fact, it already doesn't in terms of price structure. But past bear markets definitely give us an idea of the possible paths and the magnitude downtrends can reach. It all boils down to market psychology. That's what market cycles (bull runs > bear runs > bull runs) are all about.

If it were just up, up, up all the time, the market would be too easy to beat. Everyone could be a trader. Instead, the market fucks over most traders, consistently.

I don't think we'll ever see the price below $5000 again. If it does, I'll go fucking nuts and buy as many coins as I can.

Why $5,000?

[Wind_FURY]

Capitulation of course is what the WHALECUMULATORS want! Once they sense that everyne has given up and starts to short the market, they have their people in the SEC approve the ETF and send Bitcoin to $15,000. Hahaha.

it doesn't have to be either SEC or their ETFs for the beginning of the rise. did we have the SEC when price was stuck at $200 in 2015 and people were talking about "capitulation" and were giving up on bitcoin? or did we have the SEC when price was at $10 and people were saying price has gone up long enough and it is time for bitcoin to die?

No, the WHALE-CUMULATORS know that the sheep have become very smart because of their newly gained trading experience in this bear market. They want the sheep to continue shorting after capitulation on $5100. Once the price is on $7000, they want the sheep to keep holding on their short selling tickets until $8000. Then finally, release the SEC to approve the ETF and all new Bitcoin financial derivatives!

[davis196]

As you all know, we are in a multi-year bear market, very similar, in form and content, to the one of 2013-2015.

Recently we had bearish news in CNBC, which indicates a capitulation is near. Perhaps we are already in capitulation phase and the sheeple are already selling and going back to their hyper-regulated stock markets.

I created this pool to collect some opinions.

If this is capitulation,then who is about to surrender?The crypto traders,the crypto whales,exchanges,newbies?
I don't see anyone giving up.The majority of the crypto supporters are just waiting for the bearish market to go away.This doesn't look like capitulation to me.
Why do you trust CNBC?I believe that CNBC is just a FUD media,nothing more.

[nl247]

As you all know, we are in a multi-year bear market, very similar, in form and content, to the one of 2013-2015.

Recently we had bearish news in CNBC, which indicates a capitulation is near. Perhaps we are already in capitulation phase and the sheeple are already selling and going back to their hyper-regulated stock markets.

I created this pool to collect some opinions.

I'm not really sure if CNBC is a best source about crypto though, just like any news outlet out there, they're just going with the flow. I mean they will report what's very obvious with just few analysis here and there.

As for people going back to stocks, I don't think so, this is where the money is and its too late to go back then because the bear season is almost over though. So it doesn't make sense at all to go back to stocks market at this point.

CNBC has always been the wrong choice of news platform to always want to follow whatever comes from them. If CNBC is telling you there is fire on the mountain and you should run, you better just approach the fire as that is where you will find goodies, and if they tell you there are some goodies ahead and you should hop into the train, you better speed off with the speed of lightning and just like someone said, CNBC has turned to a contrary indicator at the moment. no one knows however, if we are in capitulation phase or not, but whichever way, the trend remains my best friend and nothing changes that.

[magneto]

As you all know, we are in a multi-year bear market, very similar, in form and content, to the one of 2013-2015.

Recently we had bearish news in CNBC, which indicates a capitulation is near. Perhaps we are already in capitulation phase and the sheeple are already selling and going back to their hyper-regulated stock markets.

I created this pool to collect some opinions.

We're already past the panic and fear stage of the bear market, so I think it's safe to say that we're near the capitulation stage.

Thus, we are definitely very close to the bottom of this bear market, and the price floor is probably somewhere between $3-5k depending on how the market moves in the short term over the past few months. But as such, buying right now definitely is a great opportunity to accumulate for the long run.

Mainstream media seems to usually be indicative of where the market sentiment is at right now. You're spot on with the comparison with the 2013-15 bear market as well, I think it will be fairly similar this time round with 2020's halving being a major milestone for recovery this time round as well.

[figmentofmyass]

If this is capitulation,then who is about to surrender?The crypto traders,the crypto whales,exchanges,newbies?

underwater investors and traders. the term is shortened from "market capitulation". here's the common definition:

Capitulation is when investors give up any previous gains in stock prices by selling equities, to get out of the market. Capitulation involves extremely high volume and sharp declines. It also usually involves panic selling.

capitulation is when the bulls collectively "give up" and liquidate their positions in a high-volume crash. if the $6000 level fails, i would expect many bulls to continue holding through another downtrend, then finally capitulate months later---maybe in the $2000s or $3000s.

[palle11]

I don't think we'll ever see the price below $5000 again. If it does, I'll go fucking nuts and buy as many coins as I can.

You got my mind there. I'm also thinking we could have gone pass that era too if price could hang around $5,500 for long between Feb. and April this year despite the bearish trend and never dropped below... I'm optimistic we are looking ahead.

And by the way, you might not get the chance to sell a property to grab more coins