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Author Topic: Analysis – Personal merit per day, merit per post and ranking-up projections  (Read 175 times)
DdmrDdmr
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There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain


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October 03, 2018, 02:33:37 PM
Merited by Foxpup (12), LoyceV (3), paxmao (2)
 #1

1.   Introduction.

I was curious as to what the merit per day and merit per post for a forum member looked like these days, and what a projection of their ranking-up dates could roughly look like.
While the merit per day indicator is relatively easy to derive, the merit per post and the projection of the dates when one is to rank-up are not. I’ve tried a few approaches and posted here the one that seems better off out of the diverse alternatives I tried.


2.   Earned Merit per day.

The earned merit per day for a given person is calculated as the coefficient EarnedMerit/nDaysReference, where:
EarnedMerit = the sum of all non-airdropped merits.
nDaysReference = The number of days between 24/01/2018 until the 28/09/2018 (last data extraction-> early morning-> virtually as if it were the 27/09/2018) that the person has had his account for. Accounts created on or before 24/01/2018 will all have 248 days (number of days the merit system has been running until last data extraction). Newer account will have a smaller value logically (i.e. an account created a month ago will have 30 days in this parameter).

Upon further though, I saw that even this simple ratio is not always fair. For example, let’s say we have an account that has been created 1 day ago, and received 15 (suspicious) sMerits. That account would have a EarnedMeritPerDay ration of 15, which would be the top ratio.
For that reason, even though I’ve calculated internally the indicator for all accounts, I would omit from any ranking those accounts that have not posted at least 30 posts recently (within the last 4 months *), which seems to cut out most of the extreme cases I had cropping up in the top places.

Top 25 EarnedMeritPerDay:
Code:
user_id   name                     rank        EarnedMeritPerDay earnedMerit    nDaysAcc. nDaysReference url
35        theymos                  Administrator            10,988    2725      3154      248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=35
459836    LoyceV                   Legendary                4,052     1005      1311      248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=459836
1582324   DdmrDdmr                 Sr. Member               4,032     1000      268       248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1582324
397737    hilariousetc             Legendary                3,484     864       1404      248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=397737
479624    Last of the V8s          Legendary                3,218     798       1294      248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=479624
520313    Lutpin                   Legendary                2,996     743       1211      248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=520313
698159    Jet Cash                 Legendary                2,948     731       1014      248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=698159
234771    suchmoon                 Legendary                2,944     730       1702      248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=234771
30747     Vod                      Legendary                2,879     714       2649      248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=30747
487418    The Pharmacist           Legendary                2,835     703       1288      248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=487418
98986     TMAN                     Hero Member              2,677     664       1995      248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=98986
290195    achow101                 Staff                    2,657     659       1660      248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=290195
897509    xtraelv                  Sr. Member               2,617     649       750       248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=897509
1067333   micgoossens              Sr. Member               2,484     616       442       248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1067333
101872    Lauda                    Legendary                2,48      615       1991      248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=101872
188198    Piggy                    Hero Member              2,29      568       1752      248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=188198
1275282   joniboini                Sr. Member               2,238     555       331       248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1275282
1000199   krogothmanhattan         Hero Member              2,109     523       506       248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1000199
11425     gmaxwell                 Staff                    2,073     514       2704      248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=11425
569455    BobLawblaw               Legendary                2,044     507       1077      248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=569455
1291828   iasenko                  Sr. Member               2,012     499       326       248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1291828
1188543   o_e_l_e_o                Sr. Member               1,992     494       359       248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1188543
557989    BTCforJoe                Hero Member              1,883     467       1097      248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=557989
1560793   sncc                     Sr. Member               1,774     440       271       248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1560793
787736    marlboroza               Hero Member              1,758     436       945       248       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=787736
Comments:
•   Satoshi is off the list due to not meeting the 30 recent posts criteria. Another great ratio that is chopped off is @theyoungmillionaire (his ratio is 2,23) , for the same reason.

•   What surprised me is that, out of the 21.971 all-time merited users, 11.424 has a post count of less than 30 post in the last four months (*). It is not just the Newbies and Jr. Members, since there are plenty of members, full members and other ranks in the same situation. That indicates that just over half of merited people post rather seldom or in bursts.

•   The full Merit user base distribution for EarnedMeritPerDay is as follows:

Code:
EarnedMeritPerDay             nUsers    %
[>=1]                         109       0,50%
[0.75 ... 1)                  49        0,22%
[0.5 ... 0.75)                128       0,58%
[0.25 ... 0.5)                432       1,97%
[0.1 ... 0.25)                1139      5,18%
[<0.1)                        20114     91,55%
If the "required" merit per day is roughly of 1 per day (in order to up-rank at the same rate as before the merit system, just based on activity), then only a small elite is keeping the pace (and many of them are already on the highest rank to date: Legendary).

(*) Nº of Recent post within four months is calculated as follows:
- If the account is < 4 months old then total posts are considered.
- If the account is >= 4 months old and account is in backup from four months ago then total nPostNow – nPostBackup
- If the account is >= 4 months old and account is not in backup from four months ago (merited in between for the first time) then (total nPostNow /nDaysAccount)*nDaysIn4Months. Basically, using all-time average per day for the account, and translating that into 4 months.
This is not perfect fot the third case, but it is a decent solution for the most. Nevertheless, there are circumstances that shift the post count form what it really should be in reality, such as deleted posts.



3.   Earned Merit per post (last 4 months)

The earned merit per post for a given person is more complicated. The ideal would be to have a full user snapshot of the DB from the 24/01/2018 to contrast current posts against. Ideally, all posts prior to that date should not be considered (although arguably backtracked posts were merited in the early days of the Merit System). I also thought that after eight months, people’s received merit patterns may vary rather, especially if we contrast the early months to the rest.
In the end, I decided to use the 4 month criteria for this calculation as explained above for posts (*), performing a similar calculus for the number of merits received in the same timeframe (consider all earned merit if account < =4 months old, merit difference from 4 month backup for those in the backup, average of up to 248 days for the rest and multiplied by 4 months).

With the above, the top 25 users with most earned merit per post are:
Code:
user_id   name                     rank           earnedMeritPerPost  nMeritReferenceCalculation               nPostReferenceCalculation                         url
11425     gmaxwell                 Staff          6,872     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=11425
35        theymos                  Administrator  2,979     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=35
958248    etherclassic             Member         2,595     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=958248
290195    achow101                 Staff          2,355     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=290195
921087    Tukang Becak             Hero Member    2,243     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=921087
1026500   rusbitcoinuser           Full Member    2,219     Avg Merit in 4 months (all history > 8 month)     All History (averaged to 4 months)                https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1026500
950218    Dice-Bet                 Full Member    1,633     Avg Merit in 4 months (all history > 8 month)     All History (averaged to 4 months)                https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=950218
906023    poptop                   Hero Member    1,487     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=906023
392563    chandra12                Full Member    1,471     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=392563
952115    ganjaman                 Sr. Member     1,457     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=952115
206960    1369                     Legendary      1,417     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=206960
2143453   1miau                    Full Member    1,336     Avg Merit in 4 months (all history <= 8 month)    All History (averaged to 4 months)                https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2143453
1090672   Smart man                Sr. Member     1,319     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1090672
1582324   DdmrDdmr                 Sr. Member     1,269     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1582324
354710    maildir                  Legendary      1,235     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=354710
1065443   MarcusMillstrom          Full Member    1,184     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1065443
1951496   Cryptoshka               Full Member    1,179     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1951496
182284    mfort312                 Sr. Member     1,148     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=182284
138921    kschneezy                Full Member    1,145     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=138921
1555374   NadiaHel                 Full Member    1,123     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1555374
1464471   spirali                  Member         1,098     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1464471
55384     Foxpup                   Legendary      1,094     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=55384
1982698   joulion86                Member         1,067     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1982698
84866     ibminer                  Legendary      1,064     Earned merit in 4 months                          4 months                                          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=84866
64734     vitruvio                 Sr. Member     1,053     Avg Merit in 4 months (all history > 8 month)     All History (averaged to 4 months)                https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=64734
The above has to be taken as a rough reference, but not verbatim since there are factor that influence the results, potentially noticeably, such as deleted posts, merit awarded in the four month window to post created before the window timeframe, etc.


4.   Ranking-up dates

I also gave it a go at calculating the rank-up dates for forum members that had PostsPerDay>0. Looking at the distribution shown above on merit per day distribution, the majority of the projections are bound to be really far ahead (I mean 91,55% of merited users are being awarded below 0.1 merits per day, so for most, the stopper is merit and not activity in general, as we already know).

Basically, I’ve played around with the MeritPerDay ratio and the PostPerDay ratio. Then comparing with each rank’s merit and activity requirement (the minimum 775 for Legendary), I calculated the number of days to get to each rank on account of both concepts. Finally, the date is derived from the maximum number of days of account of both tolls (which ever takes longer to comply- the merit toll or the activity toll).
This is really a rough approximate, and not a solid one-to-one forecast, since past month's data is used to project behaviour in a flat linear pattern (and we know that merit generally tends to decrease really). However, the exercise is interesting to perform.

Projections - Additional people that will rank-up with the Merit System:
Code:
year                Members             Full Members        Sr. Members         Heroes              Legendries
2018                255                 25                  18                  9                   4
2019                1105                205                 158                 91                  24
2020                820                 241                 143                 83                  45
[2021..2025]        3950                2407                729                 453                 285
[2026..2030]        178                 772                 824                 431                 233
[2031..2035]        82                  751                 1795                460                 246
2036++              206                 5939                9115                12684               14197

Note: Some member’s projections are clustered rather largely, since they have the same amount of merit. For example, the 3.950 Member cluster tend to have currently 1 or 2 merits, many with activity already ripe for Member, but not merits. Also I grouped years to make it more readable from 2020 onwards.

For example, the 4 Legendries for 2018 (reaching at least the minimum activity level + 1k merits) would be @Hhampuz, @BTCforJoe, @HCP, and @marlboroza (**).
For 2019 we would have as forecasted Legendries: @bill gator, @bob123, @buwaytress, @coinlocket$ (end of 2019), @gawlea, @HairyMaclairy, @HeRetiK, @Iasenko, @joniboini, @killyou72, @krogothmanhattan, @LeGaulois, @Matthias9515, @Micgoossens, @mstfprcn, @o_e_l_e_o, @PHI1618, @Piggy, @sabotag3x, @stompix, @TheQuin, @Tonych, @TryNinja, @xtraelv.

Note: (**) Aside, there are also currently 85 Heroes with enough activity (at least 775) and merit to rank-up at some point too.

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