BTC halving and miner sell price

[satb]

At around May 2020 the block reward for Bitcoin mining will drop from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.  In past halvings in 2012 and 2016, approximately 12 - 18 months after the halving new ATHs in price were reached. 

Is this due to miners gradually not selling the coin at the market rate due to the lower amount of BTC mined, thus causing lower supply and more demand?

Past performance doesn't necessarily reflect future performance, but with the halving being a fixed event every 210,000 blocks, and supply decreasing as a result,  what is the likelihood that around the latter part of 2021 there will be a new ATH?

[satb]

900 BTC mined per day as opposed to 1800 BTC mined per day.

[Javi_Anibarro]

Supply won't decrease but instead the rewards that will be.
Talking about a new ATH,i do not really sure about it because last time we got pumped due to hype from CME listing. But halving will cause or trigger another pump absolutely because we need miners to mine it and making the chain works. In other words,if the price is not increasing the miners will sell their hardware and it will affect the system which is not favorable event for Bitcoin.

[Baofeng]

At around May 2020 the block reward for Bitcoin mining will drop from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.  In past halvings in 2012 and 2016, approximately 12 - 18 months after the halving new ATHs in price were reached. 

Is this due to miners gradually not selling the coin at the market rate due to the lower amount of BTC mined, thus causing lower supply and more demand?

Past performance doesn't necessarily reflect future performance, but with the halving being a fixed event every 210,000 blocks, and supply decreasing as a result,  what is the likelihood that around the latter part of 2021 there will be a new ATH?

If I'm not mistaken, during the last block halving, it took around 3-4 months before we see some dramatic changes in the price. So I'm expecting that after the event, we might see the price picking up again and might hit another all-time-high.

[talkbitcoin]

there is a bigger likelihood of a new ATH in 2019 and at the very least we may see the previous ATH be reached slowly as the market reversal takes place and the money that has been waiting patiently on the side lines to come in, jumps back in enthusiastically to buy bitcoin which is now growing so fast.

[satb]

Supply won't decrease but instead the rewards that will be.
Talking about a new ATH,i do not really sure about it because last time we got pumped due to hype from CME listing. But halving will cause or trigger another pump absolutely because we need miners to mine it and making the chain works. In other words,if the price is not increasing the miners will sell their hardware and it will affect the system which is not favorable event for Bitcoin.

I think it was a number of things that lead to the pump last year, one of those was the amount of "free" crypto generated from the BTC forks, and investment going into the fork that was due in November but didn't go ahead, also FOMO and greed, and also the hype generated by the media when BTC price was rising, a lot of new buyers came into the market.

[Javi_Anibarro]

Supply won't decrease but instead the rewards that will be.
Talking about a new ATH,i do not really sure about it because last time we got pumped due to hype from CME listing. But halving will cause or trigger another pump absolutely because we need miners to mine it and making the chain works. In other words,if the price is not increasing the miners will sell their hardware and it will affect the system which is not favorable event for Bitcoin.

I think it was a number of things that lead to the pump last year, one of those was the amount of "free" crypto generated from the BTC forks, and investment going into the fork that was due in November but didn't go ahead, also FOMO and greed, and also the hype generated by the media when BTC price was rising, a lot of new buyers came into the market.

Yes the market moved like that a year ago.
But it does not mean we will see it again in 2021 or before that year right ? that was why i am a little bit skeptical about creating a new ATH if we are looking at our current development and news. Also that was why many people felt scared about cryptocurrency right now, a huge pump that lead us into this chaotic market.
even i am not sure whether we can see its peak again in the future or not.
So much tears,cry and moan in our current market.

[satb]

At around May 2020 the block reward for Bitcoin mining will drop from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.  In past halvings in 2012 and 2016, approximately 12 - 18 months after the halving new ATHs in price were reached. 

Is this due to miners gradually not selling the coin at the market rate due to the lower amount of BTC mined, thus causing lower supply and more demand?

Past performance doesn't necessarily reflect future performance, but with the halving being a fixed event every 210,000 blocks, and supply decreasing as a result,  what is the likelihood that around the latter part of 2021 there will be a new ATH?

If I'm not mistaken, during the last block halving, it took around 3-4 months before we see some dramatic changes in the price. So I'm expecting that after the event, we might see the price picking up again and might hit another all-time-high.

I think on both previous halving in 2012 and 2016 it took roughly 12 - 18 months to reach the ATH.

2012 halving was in 28 Nov 2012 - (~$12.22) - ATH of ~$1000 was in Nov 2013 (12 months after halving)
2016 halving was in 9 July 2016 (~$657.61) - ATH of ~$20,000 was in Dec 2017 (18 months after halving)
2020 halving due in May 2020 (?)- ATH? of (?) in ?

[satb]

Supply won't decrease but instead the rewards that will be.
Talking about a new ATH,i do not really sure about it because last time we got pumped due to hype from CME listing. But halving will cause or trigger another pump absolutely because we need miners to mine it and making the chain works. In other words,if the price is not increasing the miners will sell their hardware and it will affect the system which is not favorable event for Bitcoin.

I think it was a number of things that lead to the pump last year, one of those was the amount of "free" crypto generated from the BTC forks, and investment going into the fork that was due in November but didn't go ahead, also FOMO and greed, and also the hype generated by the media when BTC price was rising, a lot of new buyers came into the market.

Yes the market moved like that a year ago.
But it does not mean we will see it again in 2021 or before that year right ? that was why i am a little bit skeptical about creating a new ATH if we are looking at our current development and news. Also that was why many people felt scared about cryptocurrency right now, a huge pump that lead us into this chaotic market.
even i am not sure whether we can see its peak again in the future or not.
So much tears,cry and moan in our current market.

It will take time for confidence to return to the market, people will forget about the end of 2017 in a few years time just as they did with the long bear market after the 2013 ATH.  By that time there will be new investors as well as institutional investors, I think regulation is the only thing holding them back.

[dothebeats]

The halving of block reward seems to be one of the most sensationalized events in the whole of cryptocurrency market, while in reality there's nothing really special about it; it just makes the 'minting' of new coins slower, and the number of coins remain to be the same (21M). The notion that bitcoins will get more scarce every time the reward is halved is false, and the expectation that the price will soar whenever a halving occurs is also false. There are cases in which a block reward halving didn't bring any pushes whatsoever in the market, which makes me believe that it's not a guaranteed 'profit-booking' when a halving takes place.

[1Referee]

The halving of block reward seems to be one of the most sensationalized events in the whole of cryptocurrency market, while in reality there's nothing really special about it; it just makes the 'minting' of new coins slower, and the number of coins remain to be the same (21M).

It may be a bit hyped up, but there is definitely a core of truth in how it will affect the price.

The notion that bitcoins will get more scarce every time the reward is halved is false, and the expectation that the price will soar whenever a halving occurs is also false. There are cases in which a block reward halving didn't bring any pushes whatsoever in the market, which makes me believe that it's not a guaranteed 'profit-booking' when a halving takes place.

In this market everything happens in advance of the event, which means that when let's say the block halving kicks in today, the price won't move one single bit, because it did already in the runup to the event (could be 6-12 months before the actual halving).

Another factor is that with how we might see some coin backed products before the halving, combined with the increasing demand for OTC trades, all sorts of entities right now relying on miners to provide them coins will have to buy them on the spot market to fill up their reserves. That's why I expect a pretty firm and long lasting uptrend in 2019 which will likely be the last ever time we see sub $10,000 levels.

[YuginKadoya]

In my opinion with the upcoming event and because of the halving I really think that a new All time high by the time of 2020 and it will be on December I really think it will be a slow pace movement, And the market will sure gain stability moving upward in a slow sure pace, My opinion would be in December because of the slow movement that bitcoin would show and because of this the years 2021 would have a newer ATH every month.

[bintangkejoraku]

it can only reduce a little dump, because people with big capital deliberately play prices in the market for personal interests. miners with investors are interrelated, because miners will sell bitcoin to investors.

[Thirdspace]

Supply won't decrease but instead the rewards that will be.

correct.
and if the total miners stay the same that means hashing rate and difficulty stay about the same
hence mining cost will be essentially double up... to mine 12.5 BTC needs 2 blocks of 6.25 BTC
and based on stats history, hash rate and difficulty actually always keeps rising in time
this might be the reason why the price reached ATH ~12 months after halving

[satb]

The halving of block reward seems to be one of the most sensationalized events in the whole of cryptocurrency market, while in reality there's nothing really special about it; it just makes the 'minting' of new coins slower, and the number of coins remain to be the same (21M). The notion that bitcoins will get more scarce every time the reward is halved is false, and the expectation that the price will soar whenever a halving occurs is also false. There are cases in which a block reward halving didn't bring any pushes whatsoever in the market, which makes me believe that it's not a guaranteed 'profit-booking' when a halving takes place.

My thoughts are that when a miner receives a block rewards of 6.25 BTC instead of 12.5 BTC, he/she will have to cover the electricity costs.  When they're receiving half the revenue and paying the same electric costs after halving, then they're not likely going to sell at the market price, this would have an impact on the price. Of course I could be wrong, would need a miners input on this one.

[satb]

Supply won't decrease but instead the rewards that will be.

correct.
and if the total miners stay the same that means hashing rate and difficulty stay about the same
hence mining cost will be essentially double up... to mine 12.5 BTC needs 2 blocks of 6.25 BTC
and based on stats history, hash rate and difficulty actually always keeps rising in time
this might be the reason why the price reached ATH ~12 months after halving

Agree. Some lower scale miners may quit mining if they can't afford to run their equipment and pay for energy costs.  This would decrease difficulty for a short while, until it levels out again and then rises.  I guess this is the reason it can take  circa 12 - 18 months.

[BitHodler]

Agree. Some lower scale miners may quit mining if they can't afford to run their equipment and pay for energy costs.  This would decrease difficulty for a short while, until it levels out again and then rises.  I guess this is the reason it can take  circa 12 - 18 months.

The difficulty won't really decrease because when smaller miners stop mining, the larger miners immediately fire up more of their own hardware to benefit. It's quite a competitive aspect of crypto where only the strongest survive.

Some larger miners even intentionally fire up more hardware in an attempt to make smaller miners quit. Smaller miners will try to keep mining as long as possible, even when it isn't all that profitable in the short term.

You have to keep in mind that turning off hardware isn't an option with how the difficulty won't be going down. The only thing you're doing in that case is granting other miners more profits, and your position in the network is gone.

[timerland]

At around May 2020 the block reward for Bitcoin mining will drop from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.  In past halvings in 2012 and 2016, approximately 12 - 18 months after the halving new ATHs in price were reached. 

Is this due to miners gradually not selling the coin at the market rate due to the lower amount of BTC mined, thus causing lower supply and more demand?

Past performance doesn't necessarily reflect future performance, but with the halving being a fixed event every 210,000 blocks, and supply decreasing as a result,  what is the likelihood that around the latter part of 2021 there will be a new ATH?

It's not lower supply per se. But it does mean that the cost of minting each coin goes up, as the rewards half.

And also, probably the most imprtont aspect to this is that investors are emotionally affected by the event simply because there is a track record for bitcoin to show strongly during and after the halving event, and that causes a bull rally in itself.

You're right in expecting the next bull market to come somewhere around 2020-2021, though, given the historical data that we've got associated with the halving and the bull markets that follow. It also fits nicely with the end of the bear market which has in the past, lasted around 1-1.5 years, which again, means that it would end some time late next year, just before the halving.

[pooya87]

Supply won't decrease but instead the rewards that will be.

correct.
and if the total miners stay the same that means hashing rate and difficulty stay about the same
hence mining cost will be essentially double up... to mine 12.5 BTC needs 2 blocks of 6.25 BTC
and based on stats history, hash rate and difficulty actually always keeps rising in time
this might be the reason why the price reached ATH ~12 months after halving

Agree. Some lower scale miners may quit mining if they can't afford to run their equipment and pay for energy costs.  This would decrease difficulty for a short while, until it levels out again and then rises.  I guess this is the reason it can take  circa 12 - 18 months.

i actually because that these small miners whom you call "lower scale" are the ones that aren't going to quit that easily. simply because if you have 1 ASIC for example and are mining bitcoin with it, you don't have that much of a high electricity cost as the big miners do. so even if your earning reduces you may not care as much, specially since this type of miners are sometimes hobby miners and believers in bitcoin's long run future. so they may not even be selling the coins they mine!

[wuvdoll]

Everyone started to open topics about how the miners halving in 2020 would cause the price go up but you are forgetting one eternal truth about this. Everyone knows this, EVERYONE knows that bitcoin halving will happen in 2020.

Which means yes as a long term investment it would be fine, if you buy right now and wait for 2+ years I am sure you will have a lot of profits when that happen and if you wait couple months after the halving than I am sure price will settle at a high price even above $10-15k levels which means you would at least double your money in 2 years, that is good ROI. However no one thinks that it would be a 100% thing, it is still dangerous because of Chinese free mining farmers.