BTC halving and miner sell price

[exstasie]

People always say the last two halvings caused rallies, but if you look at the timing, it's not true at all. In markets, we don't talk about "catalysts" triggering moves a year later.

In fact, shortly after the 2016 halving, price dropped by 32% over the course of a few weeks!

It would be more accurate to say Bitcoin is simply in a long term uptrend. In fact, since everyone expects upside when the halving occurs, I would expect either downside or sideways. If the crowd is heavily long, price will usually drop. Any successful trader knows the crowd is usually wrong.

[shamc]

Three years is a long time to wait to reach an ATH. I think it will be a pump in 2019 for a new ATH somewhere between 20 and 50k. After the slump the bitcoin halving event will bring it to a new price somewhere between 50 and 100k

[Javi_Anibarro]

Three years is a long time to wait to reach an ATH. I think it will be a pump in 2019 for a new ATH somewhere between 20 and 50k. After the slump the bitcoin halving event will bring it to a new price somewhere between 50 and 100k

Based on what you could say something like that ? money is not easy to find and it is extremely hard to push the price into $10.000 right now due to multiple reasons.
ETF was rejected/delayed or whatever we called it(but me personally it was rejected), no hype from ETF and i believe institutional money will not flow into it.
they are smart, they won't put their money into it because they knew they can not push the price or trigger the pump without a news.
Another one is afraid, a lot of peoples are crying right now because they bought it at $20.000. Do you think they are stupid enough to buy it when the price is moving up a little from its average price ? they are already learned their lesson.

[wuvdoll]

At around May 2020 the block reward for Bitcoin mining will drop from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.  In past halvings in 2012 and 2016, approximately 12 - 18 months after the halving new ATHs in price were reached. 

Is this due to miners gradually not selling the coin at the market rate due to the lower amount of BTC mined, thus causing lower supply and more demand?

Past performance doesn't necessarily reflect future performance, but with the halving being a fixed event every 210,000 blocks, and supply decreasing as a result,  what is the likelihood that around the latter part of 2021 there will be a new ATH?

Lately I have been seeing this "2020 is the time bitcoin will skyrocket" a lot in these topics.

Yes, when the miner halving happens the price will be more than what it is right now but people are forgetting that the price will be already adjusted to that before it happens, maybe a week before that maybe a month maybe a year but eventually when the day comes it won't change all of a sudden because the price will be already affected by it beforehand.

You guys should take your long term positions right now for it to worth something when that happens. Otherwise you will be all too late to get any decent profits from it.

[Zadicar]

Everyone started to open topics about how the miners halving in 2020 would cause the price go up but you are forgetting one eternal truth about this. Everyone knows this, EVERYONE knows that bitcoin halving will happen in 2020.

Which means yes as a long term investment it would be fine, if you buy right now and wait for 2+ years I am sure you will have a lot of profits when that happen and if you wait couple months after the halving than I am sure price will settle at a high price even above $10-15k levels which means you would at least double your money in 2 years, that is good ROI. However no one thinks that it would be a 100% thing, it is still dangerous because of Chinese free mining farmers.

Just really a basic thing if the demand would still retain on Bitcoin market then halving event would happen then we can really presume high chances of price increase would be there but same as you said theres no certain thing or assurance. Long term holds is quite more realistic or worthy yet only a few years an we would head up on that event.

[pooya87]

People always say the last two halvings caused rallies, but if you look at the timing, it's not true at all. In markets, we don't talk about "catalysts" triggering moves a year later.

In fact, shortly after the 2016 halving, price dropped by 32% over the course of a few weeks!

it is because the halving rise caused by its hype occurs before the halving not after it. the rise usually starts about 2 months before the date and what you see afterwards is the  correction of that hyped up rise.

however, the thing is halving is only one of the many reasons why price is rising but for some reason these topics want to focus on it despite halving being too far away.

[zazarb]

No doubt the price should rise, just because, automatic digging costs double up for miners. If the price not rise, they are not worth to continue its work. besides, before each halving, price always increased, so it is very likely that it will be this time

[satb]

Three years is a long time to wait to reach an ATH. I think it will be a pump in 2019 for a new ATH somewhere between 20 and 50k. After the slump the bitcoin halving event will bring it to a new price somewhere between 50 and 100k

Based on what you could say something like that ? money is not easy to find and it is extremely hard to push the price into $10.000 right now due to multiple reasons.
ETF was rejected/delayed or whatever we called it(but me personally it was rejected), no hype from ETF and i believe institutional money will not flow into it.
they are smart, they won't put their money into it because they knew they can not push the price or trigger the pump without a news.
Another one is afraid, a lot of peoples are crying right now because they bought it at $20.000. Do you think they are stupid enough to buy it when the price is moving up a little from its average price ? they are already learned their lesson.

I think it will take a few years for those that bought at 20K so heal their wounds, that's why I think it is more likely in 2020/2021 rather than 2019 (notwithstanding my previous comments earlier). Its all about the confidence in the market, and by that time new players will also enter, FOMO will be a big driver as well as media reporting.

[satb]

No doubt the price should rise, just because, automatic digging costs double up for miners. If the price not rise, they are not worth to continue its work. besides, before each halving, price always increased, so it is very likely that it will be this time

Exactly, I don't think many miners are going to make a loss selling their lower reward of 6.25 BTC which costs the same in energy costs when they received 12.5 BTC per block previously.  

There will be a gradual price rise leading up to the event, then a consolidation/drop after the event, and then a peak around 18 - 24 months after the event (but that is based on a historical events), and is only a prediction.

[messito]

It seems to me that these events are in no way connected with each other and Bitcoin as it was growing by itself so it will continue to do

[zazarb]

No doubt the price should rise, just because, automatic digging costs double up for miners. If the price not rise, they are not worth to continue its work. besides, before each halving, price always increased, so it is very likely that it will be this time

Exactly, I don't think many miners are going to make a loss selling their lower reward of 6.25 BTC which costs the same in energy costs when they received 12.5 BTC per block previously.  

There will be a gradual price rise leading up to the event, then a consolidation/drop after the event, and then a peak around 18 - 24 months after the event (but that is based on a historical events), and is only a prediction.

Yes, I do not think we will see a significant change in prices. I think this will be an organic action during which the price will gradually reach the threshold from which it will be possible to continue selling Bitcoins profitable even after halving.

[guoyu78]

People always say the last two halvings caused rallies, but if you look at the timing, it's not true at all. In markets, we don't talk about "catalysts" triggering moves a year later.

In fact, shortly after the 2016 halving, price dropped by 32% over the course of a few weeks!

it is because the halving rise caused by its hype occurs before the halving not after it. the rise usually starts about 2 months before the date and what you see afterwards is the  correction of that hyped up rise.

however, the thing is halving is only one of the many reasons why price is rising but for some reason these topics want to focus on it despite halving being too far away.

I actually always do think that there are so many things that make up the market movement than just halving and I feel a lot of people are putting too much emphasis on the idea of halving actually being the cause.

Yeah, it is a speculative market, hype can easily cause something to skyrocket and the hype with the whole halving thing over the years has been crazy. You are right with the hype starting a lot before the halving anyway, with a correction afterwards and the next year coming with a new set of rally, but however it is and like exstasie said, I feel it is just the market moving on its own with a long term uptrend and nothing else.

[Febo]

At around May 2020 the block reward for Bitcoin mining will drop from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.  In past halvings in 2012 and 2016, approximately 12 - 18 months after the halving new ATHs in price were reached. 

Is this due to miners gradually not selling the coin at the market rate due to the lower amount of BTC mined, thus causing lower supply and more demand?

Past performance doesn't necessarily reflect future performance, but with the halving being a fixed event every 210,000 blocks, and supply decreasing as a result,  what is the likelihood that around the latter part of 2021 there will be a new ATH?

Old ATH of $1200 was reached in March 2017 so only 4 months after halving. This time should happen even earlier because people will want to buy cheap Bitcoins before the rest. So May 2020 is totally ready for $20k Bitcoin.

[Biscutard]

Three years is a long time to wait to reach an ATH. I think it will be a pump in 2019 for a new ATH somewhere between 20 and 50k. After the slump the bitcoin halving event will bring it to a new price somewhere between 50 and 100k

You think it will took 3 years to reach a new ATH again? Let's just wait and see if it will because the market today seems too impossible to predict even the most reputable people stop talking about it. Bearish trend for a year indeed, despite of halving by 2020 but i think it's not that enough since the price today is too far to reach again at $20k.

[bloodyvio]

do not expect too much if BTC halving will make the price of bitcoin rise
circulating supplies are around 17M and those that have not circulated around 3M
and every day miners always sell their bitcoin to get profit
BTC will rise if there is more adoption, halving will not have too much impact on prices

[exstasie]

No doubt the price should rise, just because, automatic digging costs double up for miners. If the price not rise, they are not worth to continue its work.

Just to play devil's advocate, it really depends on demand. If demand remains consistent as new supply falls, then price should rise.

If demand drops a lot, who knows? It could be just like gold mining in spite of the halving. When the mining operation is loss-making, it gets shut down. For examples, see here and here. Operators and their shareholders can't wait around forever making losses, simply hoping for the market to turn around. They liquidate the operations instead.

If that happens in Bitcoin, it's not the end of the world. Difficulty will drop and it'll become cheaper to mine. The market will even out.

[sana54210]

People always say the last two halvings caused rallies, but if you look at the timing, it's not true at all. In markets, we don't talk about "catalysts" triggering moves a year later.

In fact, shortly after the 2016 halving, price dropped by 32% over the course of a few weeks!

It would be more accurate to say Bitcoin is simply in a long term uptrend. In fact, since everyone expects upside when the halving occurs, I would expect either downside or sideways. If the crowd is heavily long, price will usually drop. Any successful trader knows the crowd is usually wrong.

I actually thought I was the only one who noticed this. In the previous years that we halved, it was the next year before we even saw a huge bull run at all and like you said, this should not even be considered a catalyst at all when it comes to the movement of the market.

However, I guess for every movement in the market, both uptrend and downtrend; people will always look for one fundamental action to attach to it, even though the market is just moving on its own course based on adoption. I really do not see how halving have been the main cause for market movement and I do not see why people are attaching bullishness to it.

[exstasie]

People always say the last two halvings caused rallies, but if you look at the timing, it's not true at all. In markets, we don't talk about "catalysts" triggering moves a year later.

In fact, shortly after the 2016 halving, price dropped by 32% over the course of a few weeks!

It would be more accurate to say Bitcoin is simply in a long term uptrend. In fact, since everyone expects upside when the halving occurs, I would expect either downside or sideways. If the crowd is heavily long, price will usually drop. Any successful trader knows the crowd is usually wrong.

I actually thought I was the only one who noticed this. In the previous years that we halved, it was the next year before we even saw a huge bull run at all and like you said, this should not even be considered a catalyst at all when it comes to the movement of the market.

However, I guess for every movement in the market, both uptrend and downtrend; people will always look for one fundamental action to attach to it, even though the market is just moving on its own course based on adoption. I really do not see how halving have been the main cause for market movement and I do not see why people are attaching bullishness to it.

It's just human nature to try to rationalize every market event and price move. People don't understand markets. Because they're spontaneous and somewhat unpredictable, they assume any price move must be related to a fundamental event, and that fundamental events are what drives price. They just can't wrap their head around how "supply and demand" underlie the price, and how there are endless variables that affect supply and demand.

The one news story or fundamental event you can think of obviously doesn't tell the whole story.

If anything, the halving is probably a "sell the news" event because of the hype around it. It'll be a while before the market actually starts to feel the lowered block reward, in the sense of absorbing available mining supply.

[arinalwa]

People always say the last two halvings caused rallies, but if you look at the timing, it's not true at all. In markets, we don't talk about "catalysts" triggering moves a year later.

In fact, shortly after the 2016 halving, price dropped by 32% over the course of a few weeks!

It would be more accurate to say Bitcoin is simply in a long term uptrend. In fact, since everyone expects upside when the halving occurs, I would expect either downside or sideways. If the crowd is heavily long, price will usually drop. Any successful trader knows the crowd is usually wrong.

Bitcoin mining is one thing but another is we need to take a look at what happened with the gpu miners. Look at all those graphic cards that were out of stock just couple months ago, now they are cheaper than the market price on places like ebay which means miners are selling their machines because they are not making as much money.

Same could happen to bitcoin, miners of ethereum couldn't stop ethereum dropping under the price that miners would make profit, why do you believe people who mine bitcoin could stop the price from going below the cost of mining? I think it could happen because bitcoin miners are bigger corporations whereas gpu miners are individuals but its still a risk.