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Author Topic: Is the US stock market going to falling into a correction?  (Read 243 times)
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October 06, 2018, 04:21:23 PM
Last edit: October 06, 2018, 04:31:26 PM by omfg.xekcep
 #1

The US stock market closed this week in the red zone. The S&P500 index could not preserve the level 3000 and we saw that somebody was selling off the equities during last couple of days.
Why it might be so important? As we know the stock market is pretty overbought especially such the giants like Amazon, Facebook and so on. As far as I know plenty of traders are waiting a quite strong correction (10-30%) and there is the crucial question for many traders, I mean, is  it the new correction or it is just the trap for bears?
By the way does anybody have a short position in S&P500 and what is the price?



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October 06, 2018, 04:26:28 PM
 #2

As we know the stock market is pretty overbought especially such the giants like Amazon, Facebook and so on.
Ugh...I wouldn't touch either one of those stocks.  None of the other tech and social media stocks, either, like Twitter and so on.  That stuff smells too much like 1999 to me, even though some of them are actually making money (like FB).

History would tell us that the stock market is due for a correction, and even though I tend not to look at history in order to predict the future I'd tend to agree with that.  Eventually investors either get scared or start taking their profits out of the market, and I'd agree that right now the stock market is certainly inflated to the point where stocks are on average very expensive. 

I doubt Warren Buffett is buying many stocks in this market.  You would have made an absolute killing had you bought in in 2009-2012, but right now you might be buying at the top, just like bitcoin at $20,000.  But we'll see.  I haven't heard any really bad news that would suggest that the stock market might be in for a crash instead of a correction, but you never know.

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October 06, 2018, 06:22:20 PM
 #3

It's quite difficult to say actually. I'm of believe (like many others) that a correction is more than due, but who are we? If we think that a correction is due, why don't we short the stock market? No one has heavy enough balls to short stocks during their prime days.

Looking back, I have been reading through forums and other sites where stock "gurus" claimed that within five months (and this was earlier this year) we would see a 10-20% correction, but we have seen nothing but the stock prices climb up to even more insane record highs. In the end, the institutions are the ones largely responsible for the upward momentum, and they are the only ones to end it.

It could be that the social media stock selloffs is the first sign of a looming global correction, but it could also be that large institutions are getting their money out of social media stocks and dump it in stocks targeting a different industry.

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October 07, 2018, 12:11:06 PM
 #4

Right! Nobody knows for sure if it is a new correction or not. Suppose, it is really  a correction and it means that there are immense opportunities for bears. It just need to stand the right stance by short selling financial securities.
As for me, I am going to sell futures on the S&P500 index to form my short position. Of course, I know that it is quite risky but I consider the similar opportunities happen not so often therefore I do not want to miss this one.

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October 08, 2018, 04:09:54 PM
 #5

The S&P500 index is going down during the day and I am pretty sure if the level 2870 is not defended and held the correction will continue with some acceleration.



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October 08, 2018, 07:26:37 PM
 #6

Same here, too big for me and skeptical with the stock market. A single news or a fresh scandal can kill the chart like when you turn off the light. Good for the American pension funds.
By the way, did you notice the graph during Q1 2018 Didn't make you think about Bitcoin for the same period?

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October 08, 2018, 07:36:38 PM
 #7

The US stock market closed this week in the red zone. The S&P500 index could not preserve the level 3000 and we saw that somebody was selling off the equities during last couple of days.
Why it might be so important? As we know the stock market is pretty overbought especially such the giants like Amazon, Facebook and so on. As far as I know plenty of traders are waiting a quite strong correction (10-30%) and there is the crucial question for many traders, I mean, is  it the new correction or it is just the trap for bears?

the eternal question when it comes to the SPX......

i think it makes sense to wait and see whether the $2870 area holds. that was the prior top in january and should be support if the market is still bullish. price has not fallen below the previous high, and the uptrend from 2011 is still comfortably intact. no momentum or volume to the selling yet. no reason to be too bearish yet.

By the way does anybody have a short position in S&P500 and what is the price?

when it comes to the USA stock market, the correct play for many years has been keep betting on the trend until it ends. i'm definitely not short. i don't try to catch tops on stock indices. too many people have died trying to fade the SPX (rest their souls). Wink

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October 08, 2018, 07:57:56 PM
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 #8

The US stock market is definitely due for a correction on par with what happened with Bitcoin this year. We know that most of

these stocks are over priced and things cannot go on as normal for much longer. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway

(BRK.A), is the most over priced stocks in the market and he will feel the pain when these stocks starts collapsing soon.  Wink

He is quick to call Bitcoin a bubble, but I think those stocks are definitely a much bigger bubble than Bitcoin ever was.  Grin

 
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October 08, 2018, 10:32:30 PM
 #9

It's definitely been feeling like the irrational exuberance stage of the rally. But hell, it's been feeling that way since this time last year. Cheesy

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see another leg upwards, looking at the 1-month chart. Alternatively, I think there should be another attempt on the recent highs before any serious correction.

I'm out of the stock market though; it's feeling too risky for my taste. My cash is moving back into the crypto market, and my retirement accounts are in cash. I'll buy into the blood whenever it happens, whether that's months or years from now. Much more interested in trading crypto once BTC breaks out of this sideways pattern.

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October 08, 2018, 11:00:21 PM
 #10

He is quick to call Bitcoin a bubble, but I think those stocks are definitely a much bigger bubble than Bitcoin ever was.  Grin
Could be, but the fact that there is too much fiat in circulation might be playing an important role in how the stock market bubble may last much longer than we think, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see it go up more.

When the bubble finally pops, you can be sure that the bear market will last several years with how slow the legacy market cycles through its phases. The next question will be where all that capital will shift to.

It could be that crypto will directly benefit from a stock market pop. If even 10% of that capital ends up in the crypto market, we'll see an institutional driven bull run that makes the previous retail bull runs look like a joke.

 
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October 09, 2018, 12:57:17 AM
 #11

Same here, too big for me and skeptical with the stock market. A single news or a fresh scandal can kill the chart like when you turn off the light. Good for the American pension funds.
By the way, did you notice the graph during Q1 2018 Didn't make you think about Bitcoin for the same period?

Actually the stock market has surprised me making such a long growth since 2009 so perhaps you are right that you do not pay attention on the stock market.
Bitcoin is a big puzzle for me. I know just that the Bitcoin capitalization is being held upper than 100 billions $ as far as I know it need to have an ability to trade futures. I am holding some altcoins (including Ethereum) but I am not waiting that they will grow quite soon after so strong downtrend.



The US stock market closed this week in the red zone. The S&P500 index could not preserve the level 3000 and we saw that somebody was selling off the equities during last couple of days.
Why it might be so important? As we know the stock market is pretty overbought especially such the giants like Amazon, Facebook and so on. As far as I know plenty of traders are waiting a quite strong correction (10-30%) and there is the crucial question for many traders, I mean, is  it the new correction or it is just the trap for bears?

the eternal question when it comes to the SPX......

i think it makes sense to wait and see whether the $2870 area holds. that was the prior top in january and should be support if the market is still bullish. price has not fallen below the previous high, and the uptrend from 2011 is still comfortably intact. no momentum or volume to the selling yet. no reason to be too bearish yet.

By the way does anybody have a short position in S&P500 and what is the price?

when it comes to the USA stock market, the correct play for many years has been keep betting on the trend until it ends. i'm definitely not short. i don't try to catch tops on stock indices. too many people have died trying to fade the SPX (rest their souls). Wink

Yeah, there are a very popular opinion that the level 2970 is a key level and if we see that the level is broken out then traders and algorithmic robots will begin selling. This point of view is excellent but I am afraid that the downward movement may be so strong and fast to have time to sell by an attractive price.
You are right that you are waiting a confirmation in case of changing the trend direction but I sometimes form my position a bit earlier and if something goes wrong I close it I know that such an approach is more risky but I do so.


The US stock market is definitely due for a correction on par with what happened with Bitcoin this year. We know that most of

these stocks are over priced and things cannot go on as normal for much longer. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway

(BRK.A), is the most over priced stocks in the market and he will feel the pain when these stocks starts collapsing soon.  Wink

He is quick to call Bitcoin a bubble, but I think those stocks are definitely a much bigger bubble than Bitcoin ever was.  Grin

It's definitely been feeling like the irrational exuberance stage of the rally. But hell, it's been feeling that way since this time last year. Cheesy

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see another leg upwards, looking at the 1-month chart. Alternatively, I think there should be another attempt on the recent highs before any serious correction.

I'm out of the stock market though; it's feeling too risky for my taste. My cash is moving back into the crypto market, and my retirement accounts are in cash. I'll buy into the blood whenever it happens, whether that's months or years from now. Much more interested in trading crypto once BTC breaks out of this sideways pattern.

Frankly speaking I do not expect that the US stock market will climb substantially higher than the previous peak which was around 2940 but I cannot exclude that institutional traders will make an attempt to beat out retail traders from their short positions. There are a lot of variants how to close most part of retail traders by activating their stop-loses (for example, drawing a spike on the chart or drawing a saw with breaking out the level 3000). I understand that everything is possible on market and I can be totally wrong in my assumptions that is why I do not suggest anybody to open short positions in the S&P500 index.
My guess is that the level 2920-2925 is quite attractive for me to open a tiny short position which can be increased a bit later.


He is quick to call Bitcoin a bubble, but I think those stocks are definitely a much bigger bubble than Bitcoin ever was.  Grin
Could be, but the fact that there is too much fiat in circulation might be playing an important role in how the stock market bubble may last much longer than we think, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see it go up more.

When the bubble finally pops, you can be sure that the bear market will last several years with how slow the legacy market cycles through its phases. The next question will be where all that capital will shift to.

It could be that crypto will directly benefit from a stock market pop. If even 10% of that capital ends up in the crypto market, we'll see an institutional driven bull run that makes the previous retail bull runs look like a joke.

The crypto market has immense potential but nobody knows when it will be implemented.

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October 09, 2018, 09:06:15 AM
 #12

This forum thread could address some of the questions raised in OP:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5040930

Over the past 1-2 years, sometimes, when I read websites sharing stock picks I've suspected they often recommend buying stocks one percenters are trying to dump on markets.

I got the same feeling seeing newer accounts on this forum & elsewhere recommending that people buy ethereum or bitcoin cash. The peak of those endorsements could come at times when holders are in their dump phase. We've witnessed many dumps over the last 18-36 months not only on stock exchanges but in the crypto world as well. Real Estate also may be entering a dump phase if indeed prices are on their way to a decline, as some say.

What does it all mean? This topic is difficult to discuss without venturing into conspiracy theories most would prefer to ignore. It would seem that economic growth is expected to taper off. In terms of risk versus reward many bigger players are opting out of markets due to low growth expectations not being worth it in terms of risk assessment. IDK TBH.

I don't even know if its worth discussing as an overwhelming majority may prefer to ignore it.

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October 09, 2018, 08:52:24 PM
 #13

This forum thread could address some of the questions raised in OP:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5040930

Over the past 1-2 years, sometimes, when I read websites sharing stock picks I've suspected they often recommend buying stocks one percenters are trying to dump on markets.

I got the same feeling seeing newer accounts on this forum & elsewhere recommending that people buy ethereum or bitcoin cash. The peak of those endorsements could come at times when holders are in their dump phase. We've witnessed many dumps over the last 18-36 months not only on stock exchanges but in the crypto world as well. Real Estate also may be entering a dump phase if indeed prices are on their way to a decline, as some say.

What does it all mean? This topic is difficult to discuss without venturing into conspiracy theories most would prefer to ignore. It would seem that economic growth is expected to taper off. In terms of risk versus reward many bigger players are opting out of markets due to low growth expectations not being worth it in terms of risk assessment. IDK TBH.

I don't even know if its worth discussing as an overwhelming majority may prefer to ignore it.

Yeah, there are plenty of signals for the new correction. In fact retail investors and mutual funds do not buy equities on such highs but companies are committing buybacks their shares putting them on their balances. There are some assumptions why they do so but actually it does not matter because the fundamental factors will correct the situation quite soon.  
By the way you are right I have already noticed that mostly members are not interesting the US stock market albeit it is one of crucial parts of the world economics.

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October 09, 2018, 08:58:12 PM
 #14

As we know the stock market is pretty overbought especially such the giants like Amazon, Facebook and so on.
Ugh...I wouldn't touch either one of those stocks.  None of the other tech and social media stocks, either, like Twitter and so on.  That stuff smells too much like 1999 to me, even though some of them are actually making money (like FB).

History would tell us that the stock market is due for a correction, and even though I tend not to look at history in order to predict the future I'd tend to agree with that.  Eventually investors either get scared or start taking their profits out of the market, and I'd agree that right now the stock market is certainly inflated to the point where stocks are on average very expensive.  

I doubt Warren Buffett is buying many stocks in this market.  You would have made an absolute killing had you bought in in 2009-2012, but right now you might be buying at the top, just like bitcoin at $20,000.  But we'll see.  I haven't heard any really bad news that would suggest that the stock market might be in for a crash instead of a correction, but you never know.

What the Fuck is Warren Buffet doing with his life.  That McDoialds eaing jew  has over 80billion and hes just going to continually hoard more money until he dies.


Make no mistake, the stock market will crash VERY soon, it will be brutal.  Amazon, Apple, TEsla are dogshit stocks that will crash HARD. It's dot.com bust all over again.
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October 09, 2018, 09:48:03 PM
 #15

It could be that crypto will directly benefit from a stock market pop. If even 10% of that capital ends up in the crypto market, we'll see an institutional driven bull run that makes the previous retail bull runs look like a joke.

okay, but why?

in a stock market crash scenario, i think it's more likely the opposite. we're talking about a huge economic contraction, and crypto is absolutely not a "safe haven" with its < 10 year history and beta software status (which still occasionally has major bugs).

when credit is easy and the markets are bullish, institutions might pile into high-risk markets. not really so during major contractions. i'd love be proven wrong on that though.

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October 09, 2018, 09:56:20 PM
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As we know the stock market is pretty overbought especially such the giants like Amazon, Facebook and so on.
Ugh...I wouldn't touch either one of those stocks.  None of the other tech and social media stocks, either, like Twitter and so on.  That stuff smells too much like 1999 to me, even though some of them are actually making money (like FB).

History would tell us that the stock market is due for a correction, and even though I tend not to look at history in order to predict the future I'd tend to agree with that.  Eventually investors either get scared or start taking their profits out of the market, and I'd agree that right now the stock market is certainly inflated to the point where stocks are on average very expensive. 

I doubt Warren Buffett is buying many stocks in this market.  You would have made an absolute killing had you bought in in 2009-2012, but right now you might be buying at the top, just like bitcoin at $20,000.  But we'll see.  I haven't heard any really bad news that would suggest that the stock market might be in for a crash instead of a correction, but you never know.
Stocks are in a bad place, so I have been told. People are really trying to weasel out of it, and not make a big loss. FB is no longer making as much money as you may think it does. It recently got hacked again and 50 Million user's data is potentially and alledgedly leaked. FB's privacy and security is a joke and that's leading them nowhere. Other stocks aren't in a great place either, if I wasn't clear earlier. They may look as if they are doing good, but in reality things are really much different.


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October 09, 2018, 10:08:01 PM
 #17


I doubt Warren Buffett is buying many stocks in this market.  You would have made an absolute killing had you bought in in 2009-2012, but right now you might be buying at the top, just like bitcoin at $20,000.  But we'll see.  I haven't heard any really bad news that would suggest that the stock market might be in for a crash instead of a correction, but you never know.
Anything is uncertain neither on both stocks or crypto market. There would always be a sweet spot but we know we wont really able to get in on the right time due to hesitations and doesnt believe on possibilities.
We might able to say that we are on the top now when it comes to stock price but it might be possible it can shoot up on least we expect.Therefore, as a stocks trader if you do have insights of a certain stock then its up to you if we can able to risk or not.

 
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October 09, 2018, 10:41:40 PM
 #18

No I do not think it will fall into a correction. I note, there is no reason to go down in the fight here. I note how people ask this now, and not the last time we were at this price. There is more focus on the market this time. All the more reason to rally into the faces of neysayers.
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October 10, 2018, 01:46:38 PM
 #19

Currently there is very little volatility on the stock market and VIX but everything may be changed soon so I am awaiting high volatility and I am into the game.  



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October 10, 2018, 06:01:54 PM
 #20

He is quick to call Bitcoin a bubble, but I think those stocks are definitely a much bigger bubble than Bitcoin ever was.  Grin
Could be, but the fact that there is too much fiat in circulation might be playing an important role in how the stock market bubble may last much longer than we think, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see it go up more.

When the bubble finally pops, you can be sure that the bear market will last several years with how slow the legacy market cycles through its phases. The next question will be where all that capital will shift to.

It could be that crypto will directly benefit from a stock market pop. If even 10% of that capital ends up in the crypto market, we'll see an institutional driven bull run that makes the previous retail bull runs look like a joke.
At this point in time, I would actually say the best thing is to just wait and see how some support will be holding and how the selloff would be. The market actually looks very bearish, but we always know in a market, nothing is certain until we start seeing things happen really. Actually I am out as I feel the market has actually reached its overbought limit and I am more to the bearish zone right now than any serious bullishness. This is a market that I feel it is about to correct and it is something we will most definitely get to know pretty soon.

I was reading some news recently about the US market being overpriced and the possibilities of the whales distributing and cashing out as the case may be. Actually looking at all modalities and technicalities, I would say the stock market is actually gearing up for a bear rally. We may be wrong, but time will tell and judging from what we are seeing recently, I would not even advise anyone to be in stock at the moment or trying to get in at this stage.

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