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全球金融风暴来袭 数字货币能否独善其身
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Topic: 全球金融风暴来袭 数字货币能否独善其身 (Read 169 times)
arthur88
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Merit: 8
全球金融风暴来袭 数字货币能否独善其身
October 11, 2018, 05:20:00 AM
#1
最近全球股市暴跌,大有危机来袭之势。
危机的根源来自债务,当借来的钱产生的边际效益无法cover债务和利息时就会出现缺口,且杠杆使缺口乘倍增长。
最简单粗暴的应对方法就是通过降息降准量化宽松的方式不停得增强市场流动性,维持经济市场繁荣,然而央行印钞也是有限制的,如果过度印钞则会导致cpi,通胀超标造成更大的经济危机。
在美联储持续货币紧缩的背景下,国内只有两个选择:
一,继续大量印钞
二,跟随美联储加息缩表
如果继续大量印钞,人民币美元汇率容易崩盘,目前通胀已经达到非常高的水平,如果汇率崩盘资本外流会让郭嘉非常被动
但如果为了保汇率,进入紧缩通道,会为已经在下行的经济雪上加霜,很可能引发郭嘉的倒闭破产潮,从中小企业到大型企业、过期
目前来看,我们仍然走在货币宽松的路上,意味着通胀还会继续,手里的cash会越来越不值钱
对币圈内的朋友们来说第一个想到的肯定是用限额2100万的btc来保证自己的购买力了。问题是通胀背景下,是否会让更多对区块链数字货币不了解的朋友们选择数字货币避险。拭目以待
majorrp2
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Activity: 296
Merit: 11
Re: 全球金融风暴来袭 数字货币能否独善其身
October 11, 2018, 06:30:36 AM
#2
这是一个很好的问题,由为贸易战为源头开启的股市暴跌是一件预料中的事情,世界经济已经是一个相互依存的存在,
贸易战导致各个企业成本增加,日子变的难过,贸易战增税导致订单下跌
再加上美国国内公会干扰加成本上涨,严重依赖进出口原料或餐票的中小型企业半死不活,流动资金不足,肯定会影响股市。
政府选择加息或加快印钞速度,手里的钱会越来越不值钱,通货膨胀百物涨价是可以预期的
就是不知道通胀加大的情况下会不会有资金从股市和进入业进入币圈,毕竟金融危机底下,资金也要寻找避风港
arion6868
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Activity: 182
Merit: 1
Re: 全球金融风暴来袭 数字货币能否独善其身
October 11, 2018, 08:13:05 AM
#3
小的不太明白,每年都听到经济风暴这四个字,每次都大致相同理论论文,但是每年发展的项目越来越大,此起彼落,究竟“经济风暴”是杞人忧天,危言耸听还是某些特定人群牟利的手段?
arthur88
(OP)
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Activity: 145
Merit: 8
Re: 全球金融风暴来袭 数字货币能否独善其身
October 11, 2018, 01:40:18 PM
#4
Quote from: arion6868 on October 11, 2018, 08:13:05 AM
小的不太明白,每年都听到经济风暴这四个字,每次都大致相同理论论文,但是每年发展的项目越来越大,此起彼落,究竟“经济风暴”是杞人忧天,危言耸听还是某些特定人群牟利的手段?
在美联储持续缩表加息的背景下,已经有如阿根廷土耳其等国爆发恶性通货膨胀,恶性通货膨胀会导致国家的经济快速下行,经济快速下行会导致国家的债务比例快速提高,债务比例快速提高如果没有好的解决办法会导致国家主权信用债务的逾期,主权信用债务逾期我理解就等于国家破产,一个或多个国家破产很容易带动周边及其他关联经济体的萧条从而为全世界经济蒙上灰。这个部分可以参考一下欧债危机。以上是宏观背景
微观角度来说,项目的融资大小关键在于投资人对未来的逾期,如果技术发展前景十分明朗,风险可控,则个别项目的体量依旧会发展的越来越大
arthur88
(OP)
Jr. Member
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Activity: 145
Merit: 8
Re: 全球金融风暴来袭 数字货币能否独善其身
October 11, 2018, 01:44:04 PM
#5
Quote from: majorrp2 on October 11, 2018, 06:30:36 AM
这是一个很好的问题,由为贸易战为源头开启的股市暴跌是一件预料中的事情,世界经济已经是一个相互依存的存在,
贸易战导致各个企业成本增加,日子变的难过,贸易战增税导致订单下跌
再加上美国国内公会干扰加成本上涨,严重依赖进出口原料或餐票的中小型企业半死不活,流动资金不足,肯定会影响股市。
政府选择加息或加快印钞速度,手里的钱会越来越不值钱,通货膨胀百物涨价是可以预期的
就是不知道通胀加大的情况下会不会有资金从股市和进入业进入币圈,毕竟金融危机底下,资金也要寻找避风港
现在的情况是,今年全世界主要货币只有美元和日元的指数是上涨的,所以在没有资本管制的国家,资金外逃至日本美国是最简单的避险方式。不过税收及相关政策还是把很大部分没有资产转移路子的人给拦在了外面,这部分被拦在外面的资本很有可能成为数字货币的增量
raywolf1
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Activity: 341
Merit: 3
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Re: 全球金融风暴来袭 数字货币能否独善其身
October 11, 2018, 07:47:04 PM
#6
我持相当悲观的看法,币市现在的状况其实跟股市差不许多,不管是哪国的股市吧。以前听一堆大v洗脑说经济不好,利好虚拟币,当时还真信了。实际上经济大环境不好,市场没有热钱流入,怎么能好呢。尽管现金贬值,但是拿去投资或更得不偿失,所以都说现金为王。
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3lyntmy
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Re: 全球金融风暴来袭 数字货币能否独善其身
October 30, 2018, 11:01:19 AM
#7
Quote from: arthur88 on October 11, 2018, 05:20:00 AM
最近全球股市暴跌,大有危机来袭之势。
危机的根源来自债务,当借来的钱产生的边际效益无法cover债务和利息时就会出现缺口,且杠杆使缺口乘倍增长。
最简单粗暴的应对方法就是通过降息降准量化宽松的方式不停得增强市场流动性,维持经济市场繁荣,然而央行印钞也是有限制的,如果过度印钞则会导致cpi,通胀超标造成更大的经济危机。
在美联储持续货币紧缩的背景下,国内只有两个选择:
一,继续大量印钞
二,跟随美联储加息缩表
如果继续大量印钞,人民币美元汇率容易崩盘,目前通胀已经达到非常高的水平,如果汇率崩盘资本外流会让郭嘉非常被动
但如果为了保汇率,进入紧缩通道,会为已经在下行的经济雪上加霜,很可能引发郭嘉的倒闭破产潮,从中小企业到大型企业、过期
目前来看,我们仍然走在货币宽松的路上,意味着通胀还会继续,手里的cash会越来越不值钱
对币圈内的朋友们来说第一个想到的肯定是用限额2100万的btc来保证自己的购买力了。问题是通胀背景下,是否会让更多对区块链数字货币不了解的朋友们选择数字货币避险。拭目以待
金融风暴究竟是怎么形成的?
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全球金融风暴来袭 数字货币能否独善其身
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