"Exactly" what? I'm saying I don't recall any of the official statements actually saying that they've lost all the coins. If you have a reference to such an official statement I'd be interested.
1. "No, it would appear that these are
the remaining 200,000 coins that Gox has left..."
2. "The official line, in the legal documents filing for bankruptcy,
says nothing about how many coins they have left..."
That's why I said "exactly". Your second statement backs up my assertion that your first statement is not based on any official information.
Oh, sure, my first statement is speculation on my part. (I thought you were saying that there was an official statement from Gox saying that they lost all the coins - sorry if I misunderstood.)
But the way in which the coins are being moved is very specific. What we know is that these coins are being moved in a way that is consistent with the way the PHP code that purports to be the leaked Mt Gox code would automatically move coins. That much is pretty much indisputable. So the possibilities are:
1. 200,000 coins have been loaded into the Gox hot wallet, or
2. Someone with access to 200,000 coins (the thief?) is making it look like 200,000 coins have been loaded into the Gox hot wallet, or
3. The leaked code is a fake, so the movement of the coins being consistent with the way the leaked code would move them proves nothing, and this transaction is somehow unrelated to Gox (or at least it doesn't mean what it appears to mean)
I haven't looked at it, but other people have found past evidence on the blockchain that confirms that this really is how the Gox hot wallet works. (3) sounded pretty implausible anyway, but I'm willing to discount it pretty much completely based on this evidence.
So this leaves us with (1) and (2). There was some discussion on reddit as to which of (1) or (2) were the case, but gmaxwell claims to have found evidence via the Gox API (which is apparently still live) that strongly suggests (1) is the case. I haven't looked at this evidence but I'm inclined to trust gmaxewell's evaluation of the evidence.
So, based on the above (and always remembering that this may be out-of-date as I write it, and certainly as you read it): what we very strongly believe, right now (although of course can't say with 100% certainty) is that someone has loaded 200,000 coins into the Gox hot wallet.
Yes, we don't know who, how, what or why. So yes, the rest is speculation on my part. (But if anyone has a more plausible explanation as to how or why someone has loaded 200,000 coins into the Gox hot wallet I'm all ears.)
