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Author Topic: Impact of Italy's crisis on the Bitcoin price?  (Read 508 times)
RealSohan
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November 04, 2018, 02:42:21 PM
 #21

I agree with you . Bitcoin may be a major risk for next year's financial year. But as the global financial markets are reeling, bitcoin is finally beginning to see the light of day again, and it could just have something to do with the fact that a potential threat to the euro highlights the benefits of a decentralized currency like bitcoin.
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November 04, 2018, 04:28:29 PM
 #22

In case of a strong crisis, people can start looking for a new place to invest, and come to cryptocurrencies.

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November 04, 2018, 06:17:55 PM
 #23

I talked a few times here about the agony with the banking system in Italy. And here is the problem.

It's going to be a huge crisis, the one in The USA in 2008 is nothing compared to what this one could be; With a lot bigger impact on the worldwide economy.

It happens all the time when populists come to power in the country. You can promise to reduce public debt, provide affordable medicine and increase pensions, but if you have no clue how to do it and the country doesn't have the means to carry out such reforms, everything ends up like in Greece.
In the very near future, talk of reducing the influx of refugees into the country will begin...oh, wait
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November 04, 2018, 10:23:16 PM
 #24

The Italian "crisis" is only an electoral maneuver. They will do a bit of theater, a bit of skirmish, then you can be sure that the rulers will obey the wishes of Europe.
In any case, the effect on bitcoins will be irrelevant, or - possibly - positive.

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November 04, 2018, 11:51:13 PM
 #25

With Italy making a big statement to not follow with the imposed European Union budget (see this crazy sequence: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erSSC85CME4 ), things are starting to get serious. Salvini may be nuts enough to not be bluffing.

Are we going to see the start of the biggest EU crisis yet? Italy is no Greece, it is too big, if the same scenario happens (this time with the far right instead of far left but same result) are we going to see an impact on the Bitcoin price?

If Italy goes Greece the consequences will be felt all over the world IMO.

If I remember correctly, Bitcoin received a small boost during the events with Greece, but Bitcoin was also very small compared to where it is now. So, we might see some speculation around such events, if they will indeed happen, but I wouldn't expect anything big, because Bitcoin now is harder to move, and many people have learned over the last years that Bitcoin doesn't correlate much with any economic problems in the world, despite people telling that it's a safe haven asset.

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November 05, 2018, 12:32:10 AM
 #26

The Italian "crisis" is only an electoral maneuver. They will do a bit of theater, a bit of skirmish, then you can be sure that the rulers will obey the wishes of Europe.

best take i've seen all day.

If I remember correctly, Bitcoin received a small boost during the events with Greece, but Bitcoin was also very small compared to where it is now.

did it, or is this just selective memory? greece received bailout loans in 2010, 2012, and 2015. bitcoin had been in a long term bull market this whole time. is it really appropriate to link the events?

Bitcoin doesn't correlate much with any economic problems in the world, despite people telling that it's a safe haven asset.

agreed. if anything, it seems to broadly correlate with the stock market, which indicates to me that the bitcoin markets might operate along similar "risk on/risk off" cycles we see in equities. that would mean quite the opposite of a safe haven asset.

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November 05, 2018, 01:05:19 AM
 #27

Will be no impact at all
Italy is everyday crisis
Much bigger problem for EU is France what economy is dead
french people have big social expectation in fact France is socialism and now only 19% of french are supporting Macron
There is strike after strike in France public sector

Much bigger impact on any asset price may have current trade war and relation between USA and China
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November 05, 2018, 03:17:03 AM
 #28

Bitcoin's price won't be affected by any county's economic crisis because bitcoin is not under control by any country. Bitcoin is decentralized. Its price is determined by its supply and demand. It is more likely that whales have an impact on bitcoin's price.

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November 06, 2018, 03:42:01 PM
 #29

Bitcoin's price won't be affected by any county's economic crisis because bitcoin is not under control by any country. Bitcoin is decentralized. Its price is determined by its supply and demand. It is more likely that whales have an impact on bitcoin's price.
Yes Bitcoin is world decentralized cryptocurrency and it was under the control of any country but there are some countries which Bitcoin market will be affected if they have economic crisis due to their level of crypto friendly and adoption. Mind you, the EU are among the countries.

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November 07, 2018, 12:11:36 AM
 #30

With Italy making a big statement to not follow with the imposed European Union budget (see this crazy sequence: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erSSC85CME4 ), things are starting to get serious. Salvini may be nuts enough to not be bluffing.

Are we going to see the start of the biggest EU crisis yet? Italy is no Greece, it is too big, if the same scenario happens (this time with the far right instead of far left but same result) are we going to see an impact on the Bitcoin price?

If Italy goes Greece the consequences will be felt all over the world IMO.

If Italy crisis, i am believe it will creating world crisis again like Greece. I think it will creating distrust on financial system and maybe investor will see alternative investment like cryptocurrency and if this happen, it will bring cryptocurrency to next level

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November 07, 2018, 12:24:23 AM
 #31

Will be no impact at all
Italy is everyday crisis
Much bigger problem for EU is France what economy is dead
french people have big social expectation in fact France is socialism and now only 19% of french are supporting Macron
There is strike after strike in France public sector

Much bigger impact on any asset price may have current trade war and relation between USA and China

Maybe the biggest impact will be because of all these events happening at the same time? The overall worldwide economy is at it's most unstable times since the "acknowledged" crisis in 2008.

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November 07, 2018, 07:11:55 PM
 #32

f course they will invest in commodities that are real and contain little risk, therefore gold and property are choices. and i think it's unlikely that they will invest in cryptocurrency, because it invites a lot of risks

Thats not quite true, gold has a security risk to it (and cost).  There is a risk of confiscation, even in USA gold has been taken away by government with some compensation but still it was to the disadvantage of the population holding hard assets like that.
Bitcoin has a more global stance which gives some advantage so that 1 citizen in 1 country is not so easily isolated to a situation of purely where they are located.   When we have a global economy and digital one even this makes more sense, obviously some costs will always be local so I never think in terms of just one currency or type even.

For me I believe Italy won't go the same route as Greece because EU would be foolish to let this happen, concerning triggering crisis  in EU region, one thing I have observed recently is that Bitcoin is becoming tolerant to news like this and is having less and  less impact on the price, as we have seen this year, before this would be a good thing for Bitcoin prices but don't see it driving the price up

Problem is we suffer consequences of choices made previously, even before we were born in some cases.   The Greek problem dated back to previous governments and debts with false accounting they used to enter the EURO under false pretence.
The Greece problem should have been unwound with some defaults, the debt was bad and untenable.  Instead the debt will be paid by the wages of those who were not alive when it was taken out.  Its a failure of capitalism

Nobody (directly) sees these problems driving up BTC prices, the main reasoning I think is the failure of FIAT and its ability to regulate its spending and controlling supply of new money used to pay debt like this.  Overall this leads to weakness in that currency standard, it appears a self regulating currency like BTC is superior in comparison at that point.  Thats part of the price at least, there is a range of alternatives to EURO or any value exchange, each has their advantage

The European central bank will have to save Italy from bankrupcy,by printing billions of euro and buying the Italian government debt.I really doubt that this impact the bitcoin price,the italians just won't start buying bitcoins like crazy.The price of the euro will go down and most of the people will start buying gold,USD or real estate.
They dont have to but either way represents volatility to what was thought of a fixed standard.    Governments failing to balance budgets is a source of imbalance that eventually must be dealt with.
The proper route would be default, its the quickest and cleanest way to acknowledge loss and attribute correctly where that loss occured.   However money printing seems most likely politically

BTC is more easily transmitted value then either of those you mention.  Real estate is also a form of liability often, maintenance and costs are there and usage and land value varies with economy with prices bid up quite high right now probably

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November 08, 2018, 06:03:18 AM
 #33

With Italy making a big statement to not follow with the imposed European Union budget (see this crazy sequence: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erSSC85CME4 ), things are starting to get serious. Salvini may be nuts enough to not be bluffing.

Are we going to see the start of the biggest EU crisis yet? Italy is no Greece, it is too big, if the same scenario happens (this time with the far right instead of far left but same result) are we going to see an impact on the Bitcoin price?

If Italy goes Greece the consequences will be felt all over the world IMO.
I do not think italy is THAT big and has that much impact on the world. It is one of the bigger countries in the world but honestly comparing the 2008 crisis which was caused by the leverage of house mortgages in USA, italy doesn't have that type of power.

I think even if it affects it a little bit it won't be anything different than the regular volatility we have, so if the price drops like 200 dollars because of it than we wouldn't be shocked because 200 dollar worth of changes always happens in bitcoin and the volume won't be that much lower or higher considering the italian people do not make the bulk of the volume anyway. It is a bigger deal in countries like USA and China and even maybe Japan because they are so into it. Hence I think we will not even feel the difference.

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November 08, 2018, 06:54:00 AM
 #34

Although Italy is also the world's ranking. But it is not enough to influence the team's cryptocurrency. The ability to influence cryptocurrencies must be joint action worldwide. This has such a bitcoin to take off. Or the common action of the top three in the economy.

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November 08, 2018, 09:38:38 PM
 #35

I certainly think Italy can cause a contagion effect on Crypto and the price of alot of things.   We all know crypto is quite a speculative market based on the idea of this high growth, new area of economy that proposes but has not come close to replacing parts of the old economy.

Here we can see from a chart Italy is one of the worlds most unstable economies in terms of its debt loading.  The government is almost eclipsing the legitimate private economy with its possibly bad debts which impairs their standing in EU and within the EURO.    This debt is not secured over the long term but can react badly within quite a brief period of just a few years I think.

My experience of finance dates back to when 10% interest rates were common in western economies not the tiny amounts we have now.   If this situation were to occur again as is perfectly probable, it would be a cold winter that covers europe and most of the world and anything finance related will suffer much harder ground when attempting to make progress and grow.



https://tradingeconomics.com/india/government-debt-to-gdp

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November 09, 2018, 03:15:26 AM
 #36

I see it no big threat for the whole crypto market because i don't think that the people of Italy will follow that lead and beside Italy is a small country that i don't think they have trully a strong support in crypto currency that might influence other people to be afraid of this investments.

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November 09, 2018, 05:12:34 AM
 #37

In case of a strong crisis, people can start looking for a new place to invest, and come to cryptocurrencies.
This is not an impossibility and people always try to look for spots which could give them more utility and are less prone to the inflation like gold and silver and this might also give them an opportunity to realize the potential of crypto and start investing in it to prevent the loss in the values in the financial crisis. Though it is yet to see the impact of financial crisis on the crypto market but i believe that the devaluation will not be as much as in other assets.
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November 10, 2018, 09:12:19 AM
 #38

people always try to look for spots which could give them more utility and are less prone to the inflation like gold and silver and this might also give them an opportunity to realize the potential of crypto and start investing in it to prevent the loss in the values in the financial crisis. Though it is yet to see the impact of financial crisis on the crypto market but i believe that the devaluation will not be as much as in other assets.
Gold and silver has always been the safe haven in the past when it comes to storing value, and they still are when people are trying to run away from the inflated fiat system. Now, that we have the crypto space which actually stands a huge chance of being in this category, there is certainly no doubt at all that the potential as a store of value is hugely there. One thing I know when it gets to this stage of a financial crisis in a country is to see people trying to find a safe spot, and in this case, I believe the crypto space even though it is young, can still be classified as one.

I see it no big threat for the whole crypto market because i don't think that the people of Italy will follow that lead and beside Italy is a small country that i don't think they have trully a strong support in crypto currency that might influence other people to be afraid of this investments.
Not even a single threat actually. I remember some of the things that happened in some parts of European countries in the past, and when banks were trying to do somethings very strange which would affect a lot of people, we started seeing a lot of people seeing the crypto space as a safe spot for storing value. I cannot remember the incidence but I can remember Spain was involved. Italy may be a small country, but the reality check is that, even if there would be any impact at all when it comes to crisis in Italy, it will only be a positive one.
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November 10, 2018, 10:16:20 AM
 #39

The influence Italy has on crypto and bitcoin is not so significant IMO, to have so much impact if it goes Greece's way. Though I have so much belief Italy is a strong economy than Greece. Yet, it is not a good thing to hear of economies going down. We need everyone in this space.

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November 10, 2018, 03:14:58 PM
 #40

With Italy making a big statement to not follow with the imposed European Union budget (see this crazy sequence: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erSSC85CME4 ), things are starting to get serious. Salvini may be nuts enough to not be bluffing.

Are we going to see the start of the biggest EU crisis yet? Italy is no Greece, it is too big, if the same scenario happens (this time with the far right instead of far left but same result) are we going to see an impact on the Bitcoin price?

If Italy goes Greece the consequences will be felt all over the world IMO.

While we might not be able to separate the happenings in the fiat economies from crypto, I still don't see the direct effect it could have on the subject matter. Italy is no doubt a significant stakeholder in the EU and the disagreement they are having to spell doom in certain areas of the EU economy but that does not translate to either the upward direction or downward direction of the price of bitcoin. Just like BREXIT era, economy handlers would surely figure out ways to navigate the storm. The same thing happening in the trade war between the United States and China or trade dispute between United States and Mexico. It does not directly impact the crypto market.




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