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Author Topic: Impact of Italy's crisis on the Bitcoin price?  (Read 508 times)
cellard
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October 24, 2018, 05:55:33 PM
Merited by dbshck (2)
 #1

With Italy making a big statement to not follow with the imposed European Union budget (see this crazy sequence: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erSSC85CME4 ), things are starting to get serious. Salvini may be nuts enough to not be bluffing.

Are we going to see the start of the biggest EU crisis yet? Italy is no Greece, it is too big, if the same scenario happens (this time with the far right instead of far left but same result) are we going to see an impact on the Bitcoin price?

If Italy goes Greece the consequences will be felt all over the world IMO.
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October 29, 2018, 03:33:04 PM
 #2

That video was funny hell, rofl. Jokes aprart, the people of Italy were never theirs goverment's biggest supporter hence the European Union was adored by them. If EU forces things to go south between Italy and itself, I don't think they will keep getting the favors from Italians. Assuming a dismal situation between those two parties, the price of euro will fall and a high inflation will raise the price of bitcoin. Now the question arises, whether europeans will start using bitcoin? Maybe. Momentarily it will take place of euro until the fiat currencies of respecitve countries kick in again.
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October 29, 2018, 03:33:22 PM
 #3

Euro price is already down a bit. Since europeans trade bitcoins with euro, a price inflation would seemingly rise the bitcoin price. However, it remains to be seen whether bitcoin takes place of euro if a total collapse happens.
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October 29, 2018, 03:33:38 PM
 #4

Like Brexit this might not affect Bitcoin in anyway. These currencies operates in the virtual space and these decision will have little to no impact on the virtual ground.
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October 29, 2018, 03:33:56 PM
 #5

As we have seen that Italians are not a big fan of their government for which I think they will not support the government if European Union forces matters to go south. So taking that into the matter the price of Euro may fall and inflation may occur which can rise the price of bitcoin.
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October 29, 2018, 04:32:50 PM
Merited by dbshck (2)
 #6

Italy have proposed a high debt budget which is something the EU is not
enthused about and want Italy to change it. There is talk of a second credit
crunch looming if things escalate.

Firstly to all the newbies above bitcoin will not be used or adopted by the
EU or any other country  Roll Eyes

If things heat up i think bitcoin could benefit as some people migrate their
savings etc. Just a thought.
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October 29, 2018, 05:28:55 PM
Merited by dbshck (2)
 #7

During the Greek debt crisis of 2015, Bitcoin acted partially as a go to currency for the Greek, increasing noticeably the volume of TXs at exchanges, with a fair share originated by the Greeks. Price also rose during the duration of the crisis. A similar effect happened back in 2013 when the Cyprus was submitted to capital control conditions due to a bailout.

Although the crypto market has grown much since then, and the specific weight of the demand made from those two countries would not be as noticeable now, a deep crisis in Italy would, I figure, drag many more EU countries along, with a similar effect on an increase of Bitcoin price due to the influx of demand. The one thing that may act as a brake is the loss of value BTC has had during 2018: If a crisis were to start now in the EU, dragged by Italy, people could have second thoughts about moving assets to such a volatile value. 

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October 29, 2018, 05:38:17 PM
 #8

Like Brexit this might not affect Bitcoin in anyway. These currencies operates in the virtual space and these decision will have little to no impact on the virtual ground.


It might have small impact if not major as those countries in which economic crisis exists people will not have money to trade or invest in crypto currency which earns less demand and will have a direct impact on the price. So market may not pick that well in those times.

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October 29, 2018, 06:58:39 PM
Merited by dbshck (2)
 #9

Italy's economy is orders of magnitudes bigger than Greece, but I somehow do believe that everything will be done to not let that country implode. It would drag the whole EU and likely even the world with it to some degree.

Don't forget Italy imploding will also give Deutsche bank the final push it needs to implode, and with how they have nested themselves in so many corners of the world, it's impossible that they won't trigger a major global crisis.

All the money that went to Greece is gone for ever. The EU tries to convince average joes that every penny will be paid back, but every person with common sense knows that it is nonsense. The same applies to Italy. It's an endless put.
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October 29, 2018, 09:37:02 PM
 #10

It may sound odd, but I honestly don't care about it. I have done enough to significantly lower my exposure to fiat by having around 75% of my net worth in Bitcoin, so whatever happens, I can sleep well without having to worry about lower EUR value or forced haircuts. I advice anyone here to do the same right now rather than tomorrow, especially with how there simply isn't a way to time these events.

I started converting my EUR net worth to Bitcoin years ago already, where the exchange rate was €1>$1.4 which has come down to €1>$1.14 today. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see EUR sink under USD in the next 10 or so years. It's a currency worth dumping for something with more stability, which is Bitcoin, Gold, or even USD is better. Don't hold a falling knife.

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October 30, 2018, 12:47:20 AM
Merited by dbshck (2)
 #11

if it develops into a full-blown financial crisis and subsequent recession, it'll probably be bad for bitcoin prices. even hedge assets decline during financial crises, and bitcoin really hasn't achieved the status of a hedge asset anyway.

During the Greek debt crisis of 2015, Bitcoin acted partially as a go to currency for the Greek, increasing noticeably the volume of TXs at exchanges, with a fair share originated by the Greeks. Price also rose during the duration of the crisis. A similar effect happened back in 2013 when the Cyprus was submitted to capital control conditions due to a bailout.

correlation does not imply causation though.

i don't think the cyprus event had much effect on the price at all. bitcoiners might see the connection between bailouts and bitcoin's fundamental value, but most people don't. even if volumes increased on greek exchanges during the third leg of the debt crisis, is that really evidence that it became a "go to currency for the Greek"?

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November 02, 2018, 03:04:54 AM
Merited by dbshck (1)
 #12

Update from a couple hours ago:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1039533/EU-News-Italy-Brussles-budget-clash-Matteo-Salvini-GDP-deficit-proposal-Eurozone-latest

Salvini doesn't seem to be bluffing so far, indeed he is doubling down and calling for massive protests in 8th of december. He said there's no turning back "we will never be enslaved again". He is a pretty intense guy. Very interested to see the outcome of this. He knows Italy is a heavyweight in Europe, and after Brexit his representation is even bigger. I don't think this is Syriza 2. Italy is in a position if primary surplus (minus the EU debt, they are on good standing). An interesting clash to watch closely. Big moves in EU for the next year.
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November 02, 2018, 03:15:01 AM
 #13

I think it means more of whats been true before, governments fail to run a surplus required to repay debt.   EU has a problem with regulating member states especially within the EURO a shared currency.   The weakest point and so most likely is ongoing currency weakness.

The simple take is that FIAT currency has major flaws, they have all agreed to devalue together so as not to cause a disharmony in global trading but ultimately it is a volatile situation. BTC with no debt and no obligation to politics and its fiscal deficit spending does not share this flaw, arguably also it does not have the support of national trade revenues and demand but of course Bitcoin is useful to its own economy. 

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November 02, 2018, 05:54:48 AM
 #14

For me I believe Italy won't go the same route as Greece because EU would be foolish to let this happen, concerning triggering crisis  in EU region, one thing I have observed recently is that Bitcoin is becoming tolerant to news like this and is having less and  less impact on the price, as we have seen this year, before this would be a good thing for Bitcoin prices but don't see it driving the price up

          
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November 02, 2018, 06:53:21 AM
 #15

With Italy making a big statement to not follow with the imposed European Union budget (see this crazy sequence: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erSSC85CME4 ), things are starting to get serious. Salvini may be nuts enough to not be bluffing.

Are we going to see the start of the biggest EU crisis yet? Italy is no Greece, it is too big, if the same scenario happens (this time with the far right instead of far left but same result) are we going to see an impact on the Bitcoin price?

If Italy goes Greece the consequences will be felt all over the world IMO.
Yes I agree with you and that is why I think this trade union may create another great financial crisis in some years to come.  I don't think we would have no consequences from this and because bitcoin is becoming globalized there is no going to be any things that affect the global financial system that will not affect bitcoin .
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November 02, 2018, 07:03:06 AM
 #16

Italy's economy is orders of magnitudes bigger than Greece, but I somehow do believe that everything will be done to not let that country implode. It would drag the whole EU and likely even the world with it to some degree.

Don't forget Italy imploding will also give Deutsche bank the final push it needs to implode, and with how they have nested themselves in so many corners of the world, it's impossible that they won't trigger a major global crisis.

All the money that went to Greece is gone for ever. The EU tries to convince average joes that every penny will be paid back, but every person with common sense knows that it is nonsense. The same applies to Italy. It's an endless put.

The European central bank will have to save Italy from bankrupcy,by printing billions of euro and buying the Italian government debt.I really doubt that this impact the bitcoin price,the italians just won't start buying bitcoins like crazy.The price of the euro will go down and most of the people will start buying gold,USD or real estate.


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cellard
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November 02, 2018, 04:28:11 PM
 #17

Italy's economy is orders of magnitudes bigger than Greece, but I somehow do believe that everything will be done to not let that country implode. It would drag the whole EU and likely even the world with it to some degree.

Don't forget Italy imploding will also give Deutsche bank the final push it needs to implode, and with how they have nested themselves in so many corners of the world, it's impossible that they won't trigger a major global crisis.

All the money that went to Greece is gone for ever. The EU tries to convince average joes that every penny will be paid back, but every person with common sense knows that it is nonsense. The same applies to Italy. It's an endless put.

The European central bank will have to save Italy from bankrupcy,by printing billions of euro and buying the Italian government debt.I really doubt that this impact the bitcoin price,the italians just won't start buying bitcoins like crazy.The price of the euro will go down and most of the people will start buying gold,USD or real estate.

It doesn't need to be the italians that start buying Bitcoin. A big Euro crisis will quickly spread across the globe with overall market uncertainty, and Bitcoin is a global phenomenon, so there will be endless reasons to buy and hold some for a ton of people out there. That is what's so cool about Bitcoin, it's global and neutral. Gold is stuck where it is, you can't really move it around as they will stop it on borders. Real state is obviously stuck where it is physically, so as an italian I wouldn't be looking forward to buying real state. I think Bitcoin will be an awesome buy an hold, specially after Bakkt starts allowing a reasonably safe way to buy and hold for the technologically incompetent.
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November 03, 2018, 02:24:48 AM
 #18

Italy's economy is orders of magnitudes bigger than Greece, but I somehow do believe that everything will be done to not let that country implode. It would drag the whole EU and likely even the world with it to some degree.

Don't forget Italy imploding will also give Deutsche bank the final push it needs to implode, and with how they have nested themselves in so many corners of the world, it's impossible that they won't trigger a major global crisis.

All the money that went to Greece is gone for ever. The EU tries to convince average joes that every penny will be paid back, but every person with common sense knows that it is nonsense. The same applies to Italy. It's an endless put.

The European central bank will have to save Italy from bankrupcy,by printing billions of euro and buying the Italian government debt.I really doubt that this impact the bitcoin price,the italians just won't start buying bitcoins like crazy.The price of the euro will go down and most of the people will start buying gold,USD or real estate.
of course they will invest in commodities that are real and contain little risk, therefore gold and property are choices. and i think it's unlikely that they will invest in cryptocurrency, because it invites a lot of risks

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November 03, 2018, 06:36:13 AM
 #19

The impact of the Italian crisis on Bitcoin is negligible. It is necessary to know that cryptocurrencies have their own way of growth. The current decline is to release the once-high rise. I think it is an economic power to influence the price of Bitcoin, and the top three in the world economy have a deadly influence.

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November 04, 2018, 01:25:21 PM
 #20

I talked a few times here about the agony with the banking system in Italy. And here is the problem.

It's going to be a huge crisis, the one in The USA in 2008 is nothing compared to what this one could be; With a lot bigger impact on the worldwide economy.
Secondly, E.U. helped Greece with millions of euros, the last payment was like 3 months ago only. But Europe has no money to do the same if Italy faces a crisis, and here is the real problem. Italy isn't alone the next could be the DeuctchBank in Germany (one of the leaders worldwide btw)

Sure it could be an open door for Bitcoin if it's able to show more maturity than currently (I am not talking about the market)

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