All-Time-High will happen again after Bitcoin Halving on 2020?

[tonbit1239]

What's your insights? Is it possible?

- First Bitcoin halving happened in November 28, 2012
- Price spike to over $1k USD a year after around December 2013

- Second Bitcoin halving happened in July 9, 2016
- Price spike to over $19k USD around December 2017

-Third Bitcoin halving is expected to happen around May 2020
- New ATH on Q4 2021 to January 2022?

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[mk4]

While definitely very possible, not because it happened it the past it doesn't automatically it will be the same in the future. What we're going to need is still, more demand. We could be already at 21 million BTC but if there's not that much demand, it's unlikely to have significant price rises.

EDIT: Saw this on r/cryptocurrency

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/9rk6ph/alltimehigh_will_happen_again_after_bitcoin/

I hope you're the poster on r/cryptocurrency. If not..

[cellard]

While definitely very possible, not because it happened it the past it doesn't automatically it will be the same in the future. What we're going to need is still, more demand. We could be already at 21 million BTC but if there's not that much demand, it's unlikely to have significant price rises.

EDIT: Saw this on r/cryptocurrency

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/9rk6ph/alltimehigh_will_happen_again_after_bitcoin/

I hope you're the poster on r/cryptocurrency. If not..

I would be surprised if the price doesn't go up big time as it always typically does a couple of months after the halving.

I don't believe the demand for the only decentralized, unconfiscable, immutable asset in the world isn't on a constant growing demand. The USD valuation is incredibly misleading because it's insanely manipulated. We can't really measure the demand when the ponzi fiat scheme still allows them to print money and manipulate prices with phantom futures derivatives and whatnot. But long term we know demand + supply limited in amount will make the price go up. I would be surprised to see 6 $figures a couple of months after the halving.

[pooya87]

i disagree. mainly because the stats you gave are not reliable not to mention wrong!
you are talking about ATH here not the highest price before the drop (bubble burst). for instance the first halving the ATH was about $16.5 and after November (the halving) this ATH was reached in January (or in 3 months) and price continued rising until April. and that was the ATH at $260 not the 2013 one at $1200.

but also i disagree because the market is very different now. gone are the day that the market was still small and the adoption happened slower. now it is much faster. and everything else such as bubble bursts and corrections and also reversals happen that much faster.

not to mention that you are basically saying bitcoin only rises because of halving and nothing else!!!

[justspare]

What's your insights? Is it possible?

- First Bitcoin halving happened in November 28, 2012
- Price spike to over $1k USD a year after around December 2013

- Second Bitcoin halving happened in July 9, 2016
- Price spike to over $19k USD around December 2017

-Third Bitcoin halving is expected to happen around May 2020
- New ATH on Q4 2021 to January 2022?

I think if it is going to happen it will happen beforehand. Nothing in bitcoin world happens right at that moment, it won't be like bitcoin is $12k and the second the halving happens the price will skyrocket to $25k or something. No, it will be more like gradually increase until that moment and at the halving moment the price would already be high enough to put that into consideration.

However, I have always told people the price will be going up during this next 2 years considerably to be able to pay for the miners and their costs and it is a for sure thing. So if you want a good return on your investment than the best investment you can ever have is bitcoin. It is not easy to sell all you have and go into bitcoin for 2+ years however if you have enough money to put aside and not take a look at it for a while than bitcoin is the best investment you can do for the next 2+ years.

[1Referee]

So if you want a good return on your investment than the best investment you can ever have is bitcoin.

Bitcoin is the safest investment, but not directly the best in terms of cold hard % returns, especially in the short term. People figured out that Bitcoin will be going up anyway, and that altcoins follow at a much faster rate (it's almost like they come with a free leverage multiplier), which is why they prefer to park the little money they have in altcoins.

I can't even blame them for utilizing the funds they have in the most efficient and profitable way. The majority of the people are here only for the profits and not the fundamentals making Bitcoin such a powerhouse. That's why I am happy to have the option on Bitmex to use my BTC to speculate on altcoins. By the time the bull run takes off, my BTC position in altcoins will pay off big time, and all in BTC.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

not to mention that you are basically saying bitcoin only rises because of halving and nothing else!!!

That’s the point, halvings have an influence in the price but that’s not the only factor, so, it’s in theory possible to have a bear market around the next halving and we can see another ath for example next spring.

Choosing past events and trying to see a pattern in them to predict the future doesn’t usually work. It only works to understand the past.

[exstasie]

What's your insights? Is it possible?

- First Bitcoin halving happened in November 28, 2012
- Price spike to over $1k USD a year after around December 2013

- Second Bitcoin halving happened in July 9, 2016
- Price spike to over $19k USD around December 2017

-Third Bitcoin halving is expected to happen around May 2020
- New ATH on Q4 2021 to January 2022?

With a sample size of 2, we can't really say a pattern exists. In both cases, the halvings and bubbles were so far apart that I prefer to view them as unrelated events.

It really all depends on market demand. When the subsidy halves, not only does it take time for decreased miner supply to set in, but the supply is still inflationary. Demand needs to continue growing to push price higher.

It's really impossible to predict a growth curve for demand that would help us determine the time cycle over which mining subsidy is absorbed by the market, because Bitcoin isn't characterized by inelastic demand. It's not like petrol or water or cigarettes; the demand is unpredictable.

[Reatim]

Demand is still the driving factor before we can see another all-time-high. You might include FOMO as well in the equation. I believed that ath was reached after 4 months of the bitcoin halving in 2016 so its possible we may see it happening again, OR not. Times has changed a lot since then so I say it may push the price a little but it will took real demand to be able to see new ath.

[cellard]

What's your insights? Is it possible?

- First Bitcoin halving happened in November 28, 2012
- Price spike to over $1k USD a year after around December 2013

- Second Bitcoin halving happened in July 9, 2016
- Price spike to over $19k USD around December 2017

-Third Bitcoin halving is expected to happen around May 2020
- New ATH on Q4 2021 to January 2022?

With a sample size of 2, we can't really say a pattern exists. In both cases, the halvings and bubbles were so far apart that I prefer to view them as unrelated events.

It really all depends on market demand. When the subsidy halves, not only does it take time for decreased miner supply to set in, but the supply is still inflationary. Demand needs to continue growing to push price higher.

It's really impossible to predict a growth curve for demand that would help us determine the time cycle over which mining subsidy is absorbed by the market, because Bitcoin isn't characterized by inelastic demand. It's not like petrol or water or cigarettes; the demand is unpredictable.

I think there is a pattern if you look deeper. It just kicks in with a lot of delay, but the fact that the supply is shrinking is a big psychological factor ingrained in all market participants that are considering getting in. They look at the price, see not much of a thing going on and decide to keep waiting for a perfect entry point.

At some point it starts going up, potential buyers start getting nervous and realize they should have made a move a long time ago. FOMO kicks in.

It could also happen the opposite way in the future, that is: market participants try to out-move each other and the FOMO happens up to months before the actual halving and the halving could ironically become a sell the news event.

We don't have enough halvings to look at for data, but what's clear is, decrease in inflation is bullish assuming demand is there and im sure it is.

[thecodebear]

Probably won't take that long. Think i'll probably pass ATH late 2019 or early 2020. By the time the halving happens it'll probably be in full on boom mode going to 6 digits.

[btc_angela]

Probably won't take that long. Think i'll probably pass ATH late 2019 or early 2020. By the time the halving happens it'll probably be in full on boom mode going to 6 digits.

I agree. We will definitely some good movements around second quarter of 2019 so I wouldn't be surprised if we breached another all-time-high prior to halving. But I disagree about the 6 digits prediction though, probably max around $30K-$50K, 6 digits price is way to out of the league in the next 2 years and it will take a lot of money to flow into the ecosystem before we reach that price.

[yndye]

Probably won't take that long. Think i'll probably pass ATH late 2019 or early 2020. By the time the halving happens it'll probably be in full on boom mode going to 6 digits.

I'm hoping for the new all-time high sooner or earlier than the halving too. Bitcoin is capable of that. Did you see the pump that happened a few weeks ago? It goes up thousand dollars in just an hour that it would not be impossible to reach a few thousands more in just a short period of time. It may be quiet in the market now and this would be a good time to build up your portfolio. I believe before 2020, there would be a new all-time high as there are more people who know bitcoin now.

[davis196]

Building such historical price patterns can be misleading.Anyway,the halving might force the miners to manipulate the market,in order to keep their revenue and profits at a healthy level.They might start buying more bitcoins,or run the "spam transaction servers" that will stuck the blockchain with lots of useless transactions,which will drive the transaction fees up.

[Pursuer]

Probably won't take that long. Think i'll probably pass ATH late 2019 or early 2020. By the time the halving happens it'll probably be in full on boom mode going to 6 digits.

I'm hoping for the new all-time high sooner or earlier than the halving too. Bitcoin is capable of that. Did you see the pump that happened a few weeks ago? It goes up thousand dollars in just an hour that it would not be impossible to reach a few thousands more in just a short period of time. It may be quiet in the market now and this would be a good time to build up your portfolio. I believe before 2020, there would be a new all-time high as there are more people who know bitcoin now.

there IS a difference between what you call "pump" and the rise to reach an ATH.
the first one which is not a pump by the way, was not a big rise although it seems big when you look at $1000. it wasn't big because that price rise is about 15% rise and in bitcoin you can't call that a big rise. additionally and more importantly that rise didn't break any kind of resistance. price stayed within the same upper bound which makes it even less significant.
so you can't compare that with reaching an ATH.
also bitcoin is not a pump and dump altcoin which you can just "pump" whenever you like an make it reach an ATH within hours!!!

[talkbitcoin]

all you can say is "maybe" because what you said here is only a possibility. although the figures you mentioned here are wrong but even if they were true that didn't mean they should be repeated.
in this case we don't have any logical reason to convince us that the bear market would last more than 3 years! these days there is a lot of attention being given to bitcoin and it is growing every day. it is more possible to assume the rise is going to happen much sooner than to think it will take that long.

[MintCondition]

What we've seen along the lines of market bump regarding bitcoins price proves one thing that demand along with other aspects of the market have played a big part of the growth of the crypto market. That being said it is not uncommon to expect a market gain in 2020 as we've seen the market going down is a short set back with the followup from the imminent bull or bump that follows. Hopefully we'll see it first hand soon.

Halving helps in last year demand so it is also possible in 2020 , but if there are any news that will explode next year then it can be a big help.

[YuginKadoya]

In my opinion, it will be possible just like what happened last time the  price did a trip in a new all-time high we might see it again happens on a halving event and if not the price might take an increasing passion slowly but surely and bitcoin price would always make an increase every year so no wonder what floor we might take this time around, But in my opinion, the year 2020 will be fruitful for people holding a considerable amount of bitcoin, But for now I really think bitcoin still is a good investment that other cryptocurrency.

[exstasie]

With a sample size of 2, we can't really say a pattern exists. In both cases, the halvings and bubbles were so far apart that I prefer to view them as unrelated events.

It really all depends on market demand. When the subsidy halves, not only does it take time for decreased miner supply to set in, but the supply is still inflationary. Demand needs to continue growing to push price higher.

It's really impossible to predict a growth curve for demand that would help us determine the time cycle over which mining subsidy is absorbed by the market, because Bitcoin isn't characterized by inelastic demand. It's not like petrol or water or cigarettes; the demand is unpredictable.

I think there is a pattern if you look deeper. It just kicks in with a lot of delay, but the fact that the supply is shrinking is a big psychological factor ingrained in all market participants that are considering getting in. They look at the price, see not much of a thing going on and decide to keep waiting for a perfect entry point.

At some point it starts going up, potential buyers start getting nervous and realize they should have made a move a long time ago. FOMO kicks in.

It could also happen the opposite way in the future, that is: market participants try to out-move each other and the FOMO happens up to months before the actual halving and the halving could ironically become a sell the news event.

We don't have enough halvings to look at for data, but what's clear is, decrease in inflation is bullish assuming demand is there and im sure it is.

I definitely get the logic, and it's obviously true that as long as demand remains constant, decreasing the inflation rate should lead to higher price. I just don't like to make assumptions about causation.

To me, it's more important to observe when supply is being absorbed by the market, i.e. demand is overtaking supply, than to know the reasoning behind it. Buyers could be buying because of the halving........or maybe adoption is just increasing, or some combination of lots of possible factors. I can't be sure what's going on in peoples heads when they buy BTC. But I can recognize price and volume trends on the chart, and that's what matters.

[pooya87]

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To me, it's more important to observe when supply is being absorbed by the market, i.e. demand is overtaking supply, than to know the reasoning behind it.

actually i'd say it is also important to know the reason behind every move, whether it is a rise or a drop if you want to have a better understanding of the market and also if you want to speculate it better.

for instance if the reason for the rise is halving hype[1] then you can be sure that that kind of rise is not going to last long and it will fall down[2]. surely enough every time this happened in the past the rise was followed by a fall and a downtime and finally a stable price like these days. in this case, this kind of demand doesn't last because it has come to invest because they wanted quick profit and that is what they will get when they exit.

[1] rise from $400 to $700 from May 27 to June 18 of 2016 which are 2 months before the halving
[2] fall to $550 by the end of June or a week before halving.