All-Time-High will happen again after Bitcoin Halving on 2020?

[usekevin]

Now the price of bitcoin in the market is unpredictable one.So may be happen.My speculation is the price of bitcoin will increase in next year.Because the price of bitcoin had reached the maximum in the 2017 . So I hope the price of bitcoin will increase the maximum value and positive fluctuations in 2019.But we can't say it will happen for 100 percentage sure.

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[Ewinsane]

Could happen, even if it happens it won't happen after the bitcoin halving.

Everyone already talks about how the halving would change the price so it means at the year 2018 we know that halving would change the price for better, if we know this right now don't you think people already started to buy ?

If people started to buy right now so they could sell after the 2020 halving price increase don't you think people will keep buying more and more until that time and more people will join in and start buying closer to that time ?

This all makes sense and the price will be already high when the halving happens, anyone who wants to take advantage of the price fluctuations during the halving period should be really quick and get in as soon as possible before the price takes off.

[exstasie]

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To me, it's more important to observe when supply is being absorbed by the market, i.e. demand is overtaking supply, than to know the reasoning behind it.

actually i'd say it is also important to know the reason behind every move, whether it is a rise or a drop if you want to have a better understanding of the market and also if you want to speculate it better.

for instance if the reason for the rise is halving hype[1] then you can be sure that that kind of rise is not going to last long and it will fall down[2].

How would you ever know the reason for the rise is halving hype? That's impossible. You don't actually know any of that, and your "understanding of the market" may be completely false. That's the point: we can study price and volume to make conclusions about underlying supply and demand. We logically cannot make conclusions about why demand might be increasing.

There could be endless reasons why anyone is buying BTC: general long term investment, strong fundamentals, increasing adoption, economic hedging, cross-border transactions, avoiding censorship, "halving hype" etc. It would be ridiculous to assume at any point that everyone is buying because of the halving. There's literally no evidence for that. It's empty speculation.

[Shinpako09]

That's what i'm thinking too and not expecting a hype this year or even next year because it takes how many years before a new ATH will recorded, but hope atleast a little bit of increase this 2months left or even next year would happen and not just stable at $6k floor.

[cellard]

~
To me, it's more important to observe when supply is being absorbed by the market, i.e. demand is overtaking supply, than to know the reasoning behind it.

actually i'd say it is also important to know the reason behind every move, whether it is a rise or a drop if you want to have a better understanding of the market and also if you want to speculate it better.

for instance if the reason for the rise is halving hype[1] then you can be sure that that kind of rise is not going to last long and it will fall down[2].

How would you ever know the reason for the rise is halving hype? That's impossible. You don't actually know any of that, and your "understanding of the market" may be completely false. That's the point: we can study price and volume to make conclusions about underlying supply and demand. We logically cannot make conclusions about why demand might be increasing.

There could be endless reasons why anyone is buying BTC: general long term investment, strong fundamentals, increasing adoption, economic hedging, cross-border transactions, avoiding censorship, "halving hype" etc. It would be ridiculous to assume at any point that everyone is buying because of the halving. There's literally no evidence for that. It's empty speculation.

The halving is on the back of everyone's mind when they buy bitcoin and it influences their decision one way or another.

Someone that needs bitcoin for a specific task like moving their wealth from A to B with the intention of selling once they have arrived to B, before selling, they may look if the halving is around the corner, and if it's near they may decide to hold some of it. "Hell, maybe it pumps...". Just a practical example. My point is that no matter what the halving is a constant bullish pressure.

Another stat to consider is when the market bottomed relative to the next halving, and it's around a year apart. So you could say that when bitcoin has reached a ridiculously low price after a bubble and the halving is a year away, people that is on fence about buying start getting nervous and start buying, then the rest realize we already bottomed and the next rally begins. Buyish news (like say, Bakkt) just put fuel in the rocket to accelerate things.

[Asteiwyr05]

These ascertained stats are hardly viable. Predictions have not affected Bitcoin in anyway. No one will be more surprised than me if Bitcoin raised to the all tme high in 2020.

[Taethiel10]

I think price spike is not related to bitcoin halving rather it is related to miners. As the miners get half the profit the electricity bill will get overwhelming and eventually they will loose interest. For which a scarcity will began and a bull run will may start.

[Wiaseth87]

Halving doesn't directly influence bitcoin price. But it has everything to do with miners. Since halving means less reward, I think miners will be less attracted to mining. The electricity price keeps rising, and without a price rise in bitcoin, it will be hardly profitable carrying on mining. The mining difficulty has increased over time and there will be left little breathing spaces for the miners. So in a nutshell, scarcity may arise which could lead to a bull run.

[Uliarien032]

It's not totally true. Halving affects the miners, not bitcoin prices directly. The profit becomes less, cost goes higher and eventually the price of bitcoin rises also.

[btcdevil]

Their are chances that history can repeat as OP recorded the last two bull run so this may happen same time or even before halving also as halving will near the difficulty level will go more up and reward will become less. So price should spike.

[exstasie]

There could be endless reasons why anyone is buying BTC: general long term investment, strong fundamentals, increasing adoption, economic hedging, cross-border transactions, avoiding censorship, "halving hype" etc. It would be ridiculous to assume at any point that everyone is buying because of the halving. There's literally no evidence for that. It's empty speculation.

The halving is on the back of everyone's mind when they buy bitcoin and it influences their decision one way or another.

No it isn't. Most new investors probably know nothing about halvings. Nobody is breaking down the block subsidy algorithm on CNBC. The focus is on price, not how the underlying technology works. That's why centralized and inflationary altcoins can get pumped so much: most people don't understand or care about decentralization or economic theories. They want to get rich.

My point is that no matter what the halving is a constant bullish pressure.

Yes but it's impossible to quantify against all the other reasons people are buying BTC.

[jonaire99]

I think achieving an all-time high is not only depend on such development like halving but also on some positive factors that may cause investors to buy more bitcoins. There are many players in the cryptocurrency market and they only waiting for the right time to pour their funds again on bitcoin. But such "right time" might also take time to happen because certain market conditions are not always favorable on them.

[South Park]

What's your insights? Is it possible?

- First Bitcoin halving happened in November 28, 2012
- Price spike to over $1k USD a year after around December 2013

- Second Bitcoin halving happened in July 9, 2016
- Price spike to over $19k USD around December 2017

-Third Bitcoin halving is expected to happen around May 2020
- New ATH on Q4 2021 to January 2022?

There is a very strong possibility that we are going to see a bull market by the dates that you are suggesting but like always it is going to be a very difficult path, the progress is not going to be linear and it is likely we will have huge corrections along the way that many people will think are going to become crashes so like always only those that can hold their coins will get good profits out of this.

[cluit]

What's your insights? Is it possible?

- First Bitcoin halving happened in November 28, 2012
- Price spike to over $1k USD a year after around December 2013

- Second Bitcoin halving happened in July 9, 2016
- Price spike to over $19k USD around December 2017

-Third Bitcoin halving is expected to happen around May 2020
- New ATH on Q4 2021 to January 2022?

There is a very strong possibility that we are going to see a bull market by the dates that you are suggesting but like always it is going to be a very difficult path, the progress is not going to be linear and it is likely we will have huge corrections along the way that many people will think are going to become crashes so like always only those that can hold their coins will get good profits out of this.

Like they always say, even though we cannot actually use the past to judge what we have in the future, based on some fundamentals, history will always have a way of repeating itself, which in this case, we understand that halving has always been an element of seeing some level of growth in the space before the halving occurs.

However, whether halving or not, I really want to see the market grow to an extent where it becomes usable and not just speculative, as this is when we only get to experience a sustainable value and not just some huge spike and drop in price.

[DonQuijote]

Sure, we have 4 years before the next halving.

[setupbounds]

I think achieving an all-time high is not only depend on such development like halving but also on some positive factors that may cause investors to buy more bitcoins. There are many players in the cryptocurrency market and they only waiting for the right time to pour their funds again on bitcoin. But such "right time" might also take time to happen because certain market conditions are not always favorable on them.

True! Over the years, halving have always brought about a huge increase in the value of bitcoin anyway, but at the same time, the fact that a lot of development would have taken place possibly before then; there is a huge chance that we may be seeing a huge growth over time in the long run.

I am so optimistic for the future and extremely bullish anyway, as I know that we have not even hit the level of a huge adoption yet and pretty much that is something we will get to experience eventually in the long run. With or without halving, the chance of seeing the market grow in value is always there.

[Febo]

-Third Bitcoin halving is expected to happen around May 2020
- New ATH on Q4 2021 to January 2022?

New ATH is just when Bitcoin goes over old ATH that was around 20k. According to your studies that should happen before the end of 2021.

[Slow death]

- First Bitcoin halving happened in November 28, 2012
- Price spike to over $1k USD a year after around December 2013

- Second Bitcoin halving happened in July 9, 2016
- Price spike to over $19k USD around December 2017

This data is irrelevant at the moment, if you look closely, you will realize that there is a great pressure from governments and banks and this is not creating much demand like in years past, on the contrary, these governments pressure is driving people to get out

Taiwan’s Legislature Amends AML, CFT Laws to Place New Requirements on Crypto Exchanges

SEC Report Notes ‘Dozens’ of Investigations Into ICOs at End of Fiscal Year

Report: Swiss Financial Watchdog Recommends Banks Set Crypto Risk Coverage at 800%

New Zealand’s Financial Authority Blacklists Three Local Crypto Platforms

Brazilian Tax Regulator Publishes Draft on Cryptocurrency Taxation

and we have more cases of scam that are causing people to stop trusting cryptos

US Rapper T.I. Sued for $5 Million After His Token Allegedly Fails

we have many exchanges that do not have licenses and provide very bad services and still promote pump and dump schemes. Yes the past years allowed the price to increase in a few weeks, but today things have changed a lot

-Third Bitcoin halving is expected to happen around May 2020
- New ATH on Q4 2021 to January 2022?

I believe we will see the price of  $25000 only if some ETF is approved or if BAKKT or some other big project succeeds

[gentlemand]

I don't think we should get too comfortable with the effects of something that's only happened twice before. It's possible wider economic turmoil may stymie potential bullishness.

And then there's this - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg46844157#msg46844157 

Halvings will become less significant as supply of new coins starts to wither. There may only be a handful more that have a detectable effect. After that it's negligible.

[btyco]

2021 is a long time to wait for the ATH. There will probably be a pump to 30k next year and then in 2021 it will be pushing towards 100k like many experts predicted