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Author Topic: If Greece defaults/collapses anything is possible  (Read 5412 times)
MoonShadow
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November 02, 2011, 10:46:25 PM
 #41

The bankers have been circling since 2010 when the first defaults were being negotiated. 

Not a student of history, are you?  "The bankers" have been doing this for hundreds of years.

Nothing in my statement implies bankers haven't been doing this for years. Dick.

Um, nothing explicitly stated such, but an implication was certainly present.  Is English a second languge?  Perhaps you don't understand what the word "implies" correctly means?

And don't call me Dick, Mister Cheney.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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November 07, 2011, 06:19:49 AM
 #42

Greece is something like 0.3% of the world's GDP.  Even with significant ownership of greek debt by big international banks, defaulting on a small percentage of global assets doesn't represent anywhere near the type of risk posed by the entire global financial system's potential systemic default back in 2008.

Besides, banks are holding on to more capital and have been playing it safe ever since the financial crisis started.  It's almost a non-issue, but the drums of fear beat strong to the ears of the economically clueless and incompetent.

Once this crisis is solved, watch gold collapse and the dow gradually build up to that mystical 36,000 number I read about back in 1999 Smiley
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November 07, 2011, 11:02:25 AM
 #43

Greece is something like 0.3% of the world's GDP.  Even with significant ownership of greek debt by big international banks, defaulting on a small percentage of global assets doesn't represent anywhere near the type of risk posed by the entire global financial system's potential systemic default back in 2008.

Besides, banks are holding on to more capital and have been playing it safe ever since the financial crisis started.  It's almost a non-issue, but the drums of fear beat strong to the ears of the economically clueless and incompetent.

Once this crisis is solved, watch gold collapse and the dow gradually build up to that mystical 36,000 number I read about back in 1999 Smiley
Unfortunately, this debt which is as you correctly say 0.3% of global GDP, is leveraged 40 to 1 in the best case (ECB) and over 100 to 1 in the worst (bye,bye Dexia). Greek default means that immediately the ECB is insolvent. This is why they agreed on a 50% haircut BUT NOT INCLUDING the ECB help bonds.

The endgame is now, not just for Greece.

Fiat no more.
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November 07, 2011, 11:15:28 AM
 #44

They protest cause they are tired of a fail government that led the whole nation to that shitty situation. They keep paying and paying while the government just waste and waste and now THEY have to pay more to fix all the government fail. Of course they protest!

It's not the government's fault, it's theirs. They were the ones who voted for the people who would give them the most freebies possible. It's time for Greeks to learn about personal responsibility.

100% true. The politicians have not fooled us, we have been fooling ourselves for decades in the first place. The government simply reflects ourselves.

Just bear in mind that it would take a very rare, emotionally/mentally strong and educated person to resist Zero-Down-payment mortgages with 3% interest, outrageous pension entitlements (even if we didn't deserve them), government subsidies for entrepreneurship, tax deductions for every imaginable reason, and so on and so on.

Now that the truth about our financial state is apparent, more and more people realize the mistakes that we all did in the past years.

Had we not entered the euro, we would reach the same standard of living in 10-20 years more, through normal economy growth. But who would dare to speak about it before the crisis?

Fiat no more.
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deepceleron
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November 07, 2011, 11:43:55 AM
 #45

Greece's debt problem is that they can't print Euros like they printed their own currency into hyperinflation (re-denominated three times in 50 years). Actually paying off debt without being able to just print the currency into valuelessness must be quite the paradigm shift for them.

Greece 100 BILLION drachma note:

mjcmurfy
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November 08, 2011, 12:50:26 AM
 #46

By how much will the USD have to be hyperinflated to pay back that pesky $15 trillion owed to china?
That is almost $50,000 for every man woman and child in the country.
Greece's national debt is only $470 billion, or about $41,000 per citizen - thats $9,000 less per capita.

A huge chunk of Greece's national debt has come from guaranteeing bondholder debt, unlike in the US where one of the biggest banks in the world was allowed to fail. So how has the US managed to rack up such a ridiculous bill? Especially when they are not even providing social programs like most of the european states?

It would seem that the US has a bigger immediate problem on it's hands than greece does. The USD is losing is dominant role in world finance, and with it the economic and monetary hegemony held by the USA. I wonder how long it will be before we see 1 billion US dollar notes, or an outright default on it's national debt?

It will be the country that has the most guns, tanks, ships and fighter jets that will be the victor in all of this.

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johnj
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November 08, 2011, 12:56:00 AM
 #47

By how much will the USD have to be hyperinflated to pay back that pesky $15 trillion owed to china?

I think total debt is $15 Trillion, where China only holds ~$1 Trillion of that. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt#Foreign_holders_of_U.S._Treasury_securities)

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DeathAndTaxes
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November 08, 2011, 01:02:03 AM
 #48

By how much will the USD have to be hyperinflated to pay back that $15 trillion owed to china? $15 trillion is almost $50,000 for every man woman and child in the country.

Greece's national debt is only $470 billion, or about $41,000 per citizen. And the majority of this debt came from guaranteeing bondholder debt, unlike in the US where one of the biggest banks in the world was allowed to fail. So how has the US managed to rack up such a ridiculous bill if they are not even providing social programs like most european states?

Hyperbole.
1) US owes China $1B.  The largest holder of US debt is .... US Citizens, pension funds, insurance companies, social security, etc.  Most of Greece debt is held by foreign entities (which mean interest payments are a transfer of wealth from Greece economy to outside interests).

2) Breaking it down by citizens is misleading.  Per capita income and per capita GDP is much lower in Greece.  Debt in Greece is 150% of GDP which is a staggeringly high number.  When you combine it with flat growth, current year deficits, short maturity, and high interest rates the "service load" on Greece is staggering.  

Quote
It would seem that the US has a bigger immediate problem on it's hands than greece does. The USD is losing is dominant role in world finance, and with it the monetary hegemony. I wonder how long it will be before we see 1 billion dollar notes?

US has fiscal issues but when you make a statement like it is larger than Greece when that is just nonsense and makes you look foolish.  1 billion dollar notes really?  If US did want to inflate our way out of debt inflation the value of dollar by 10% annually over a decade would cut the debt to GDP to <50% and foreign debt to GDP to <20% which would be one of the lowest among first world debtor nations.

Now not saying the US should do that but talks of billion dollar bills is just nonsense.
mjcmurfy
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November 08, 2011, 01:05:20 AM
 #49

I was admittedly speaking in hyperbole.
About 35% of the total debt of $15 trillion is owed to various foreign investors.
China owns about 16% of it, or about $2.4 trillion - quite a chunk.

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DeathAndTaxes
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Gerald Davis


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November 08, 2011, 01:12:23 AM
 #50

I was admittedly speaking in hyperbole.
About 35% of the total debt of $15 trillion is owed to various foreign investors.
China owns about 16% of it, or about $2.4 trillion - quite a chunk.

If your going to correct someone it is a good idea to be correct first ....

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

Quote
Country               Aug-2011
China, Mainland      1137.0 billion
mjcmurfy
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November 08, 2011, 01:18:50 AM
 #51

I stand corrected. Shouldn't use wikipedia for my sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt#Ownership_of_debt

That $1 trillion are China's holdings of treasury bonds only though. Do you know how much private debt they own or how much USD they hold in reserve? That is not taken into consideration in the treasury debt, if I'm not mistaken?

Anyway, it's besides the point. I was speaking in hyperbole.
I obviously don't believe that china owns the USA... not quite yet, anyway. Wink

But how the hell does one nation still blow through $15 trillion in the space of a couple years, when the government spends virtually nothing on evil 'socialist' economic programs? The debt was minuscule in comparison not 10 or 15 years ago.

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MoonShadow
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November 08, 2011, 01:35:13 AM
 #52

But how the hell does one nation still blow through $15 trillion in the space of a couple years, when the government spends virtually nothing on evil 'socialist' economic programs? The debt was minuscule in comparison not 10 or 15 years ago.

Empire maintaince and expansion, and the cost of a military of worldwide reach and scope.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
mjcmurfy
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November 08, 2011, 02:02:57 AM
 #53

But how the hell does one nation still blow through $15 trillion in the space of a couple years, when the government spends virtually nothing on evil 'socialist' economic programs? The debt was minuscule in comparison not 10 or 15 years ago.

Empire maintaince and expansion, and the cost of a military of worldwide reach and scope.

Sounds about right. This exact same folly ended it all for the mighty Roman Empire, the British Empire and even the Nazis (debatably).

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MoonShadow
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November 08, 2011, 03:18:30 AM
 #54

But how the hell does one nation still blow through $15 trillion in the space of a couple years, when the government spends virtually nothing on evil 'socialist' economic programs? The debt was minuscule in comparison not 10 or 15 years ago.

Empire maintaince and expansion, and the cost of a military of worldwide reach and scope.

Sounds about right. This exact same folly ended it all for the mighty Roman Empire, the British Empire and even the Nazis (debatably).

Not for the British Empire, it never really collapsed, but simply transferred primary dominance from Britain to the US sometime during WWII.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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