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Author Topic: 2018 Midterms Watchparty!  (Read 416 times)
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November 06, 2018, 06:54:25 PM
Merited by TECSHARE (5), Flying Hellfish (5), suchmoon (4)
 #1

I'd like to make this the mega thread for all midterm related / watch party talk. We all may have our own views on certain things, but tonight (and leading into tomorrow) is going to be when we'll see what actually happens from these months of campaigning.

I'll post some exit polls on here when they come out, I'd like for people to post what they think is going to happen and resources relating to polls/counting of votes / etc.

I personally think that if the Democrats do win the house, the majority is going to be VERY small. The Republicans are going to keep the Senate, and this is going to be a divided government.

If that's not the case, then I think that  GOP keeps the House and Senate with small margins.

Now everyone else!




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November 06, 2018, 07:00:07 PM
 #2

I predict Democrat disappointment.


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November 06, 2018, 08:51:39 PM
 #3

Going to go vote in a here bit and I'm sure I'll be glued to the results all afternoon..
I have a decently good feeling about the results I want coming to fruition..

My plan is something like yesnonorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

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November 06, 2018, 09:05:20 PM
 #4

I voted, twice!

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November 06, 2018, 09:06:41 PM
 #5

I voted, twice!

As a Socialist illegal alien, it is only your duty.


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November 06, 2018, 09:20:57 PM
 #6

...
I personally think that if the Democrats do win the house, the majority is going to be VERY small. The Republicans are going to keep the Senate, and this is going to be a divided government.

If that's not the case, then I think that  GOP keeps the House and Senate with small margins.

Now everyone else!


I predict it doesn't matter. Trump's lived in areas run by corrupt Democrats all his life, and he knows how to deal with them.

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November 07, 2018, 12:19:12 AM
Last edit: November 07, 2018, 01:46:42 AM by suchmoon
Merited by Flying Hellfish (2)
 #7

I voted, twice!

Weak. All my dead relatives voted plus I brought in three busloads of klingons from Alabama.

I'd like to make this the mega thread for all midterm related / watch party talk. We all may have our own views on certain things, but tonight (and leading into tomorrow) is going to be when we'll see what actually happens from these months of campaigning.

7:20 PM ET now so it's still quite early and the early counts will be heavily skewed red (~%60) because small rural counties count faster. Only about a million votes counted so far, ~100 million expected.

Edit 7:27 ~2 million votes counted, 55% Republican.
Edit 7:30 ~3 million votes counted, 54% Republican.
Edit 7:36 ~4 million votes counted, 53% Republican. 538 forecast is Democrats +40 House seats, 94% chance of blue House.
Edit 7:42 ~5 million votes counted, 53% Republican. 538: D +42, 94% blue. Governor races: Gillum up by 5% but only 12% counted yet.
Edit 7:45 house flip: Jennifer Wexton (D) defeats incumbent Barbara Comstock (R) in VA-10.
Edit 7:59 ~9 million votes counted, 51% Republican. 538: D +40, 92% blue. Governor races: Gillum up by 1.7% but only 30% counted yet.
Edit 8:06 house flip: Donna Shalala (D) defeats Maria Salazar (R) in FL-27.
Edit 8:23 ~15 million votes counted, 52% Republican. 538: R +20, 60% red. DeSantis +0.4% (not final).
Edit 8:35 governor flip: JB Pritzker (D) defeats incumbent Bruce Rauner (R) in Illinois.
Edit 8:45 ~20 million votes counted, 51% Republican. 538: D +25, 58% blue. DeSantis +1.2% (not final).

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November 07, 2018, 01:44:37 AM
 #8

Sadly, the Ohio race isn't going as well as I'd hope. More upsets in the house were expected... but only 7.94% reporting in...
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November 07, 2018, 01:52:33 AM
Last edit: November 07, 2018, 02:20:19 AM by suchmoon
 #9

8:50 senate flip: Mike Braun (R) defeats incumbent Joe Donnelly (D) in Indiana.
9:06 ~26 million votes counted, 51% Republican. 538: D +25, 56% blue. DeSantis +1.1% (likely winner).

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November 07, 2018, 02:11:49 AM
 #10

overconfident dems


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November 07, 2018, 02:20:29 AM
 #11

9:18 ~30 million votes counted, 50% Republican. 538: D +25, 57% blue. Kemp +25%, only 23% counted.

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November 07, 2018, 02:30:37 AM
 #12

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

Nate silver said he's still tweaking the live odds but its currently at 5 in 9 vs 4 in 9 which is essentially tossup for who will control the house.  Senate is >95% chance of republican control.

 Not looking good for the democrats.  
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November 07, 2018, 02:34:02 AM
Last edit: November 07, 2018, 03:24:49 AM by suchmoon
Merited by Flying Hellfish (5)
 #13

9:30 PM: ~35 million votes counted, 50% Republican. 538: D +24, 55% blue.
Flippable governors: Kemp (GA-R) +10% @ 29% counted. Evers (WI-D) +5% @ 20% counted. Gillum/DeSantis (FL) not decided yet (less than 1% diff) with Miami still counting.

9:45 PM: ~40 million votes counted, first time this evening D outnumbers R by ~0.5%. 538 forecast: D +26 seats, 60% chance to flip the house.
Flippable governors: Kemp (GA-R) +11% @ 34% counted. Evers (WI-D) +4% @ 31% counted. Gillum/DeSantis (FL) not decided yet (~1% diff) with Miami still counting.
House flip: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) defeats Carlos Curbelo (R) in FL-26.
House flip: Jason Crow (D) defeats Mike Coffman (R) in CO-6.
House flip: Mary Gay Scanlon (D) defeats Pearl Kim (R) in PA-5 (redistricted).
House flip: Conor Lamb (D) defeats Keith Rothfus (R) in PA-17 (redistricted).
Total: D +6 house seats so far.

10:00PM ~45 million votes counted, D / R split ~ evenly. 538 forecast: D +30 seats, 79% chance to flip the house.
Governor flip: Gretchen Whitmer (D) defeats Bill Schuette (R) in Michigan.
Seats flipped so far: house D +8, senate R +1, governors D +2.

10:10PM ~50 million votes counted, D / R split ~ evenly. 538 forecast: D +34 seats, 90% chance to flip the house.
Governor flip: Laura Kelly (D) defeats Kris Kobach (R) in Kansas.
Flippable governors: Kemp (GA-R) +10% @ 50% counted. Evers (WI-D) +4% @ 46% counted. Gillum/DeSantis (FL) not decided yet (~1% diff) with Miami still counting.
Seats flipped so far: house D +9, senate R +1, governors D +3.

I'm gonna stop now - have to get back to work. With ~ half of the votes counted it seems that the result is going to be a lot like expected - Democrats should be able to take 30+ House seats and Republicans might gain 1-2 Senate seats (Beto just lost in Texas). A handful of governor positions will likely flip to Democrats.

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November 07, 2018, 03:24:58 AM
 #14

MSNBC just called house control for dems and senate for republicans.

Investigations incoming hehe!

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eddie13
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November 07, 2018, 04:20:19 AM
 #15

Seems Theymos is going to get exactly what he wanted/predicted.. Hope he is right..

Maybe this is something to get used to..
POTUS - EC
Senate - States
House - pop vote

The country may be too far gone to see a conservative pop vote anymore.. Sad, but the states will still vote conservative often, senate and Ec, because we aren't all corrupted yet..

It's pretty hard to believe so many people are still willing to hand power to leftists seeing all the shit they have pulled recently.. Free stuff for yourself at the expense of your country is powerful I suppose.. Importing more every day..   
Their quest for ultimate power is still in full force.. The Trump election may have just been a temporary reprieve of the downfall of the west, back to business as usual..


Sailboat retirement is the way to go.. Out in international waters with a stash of BTC..

This Space For Rent
philipma1957
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November 07, 2018, 04:27:56 AM
 #16

I predict Democrat disappointment.

Well   Looks like a spilt.

Congressman looks dem

Senators look republican.


Pretty much means trumps gets impeached by congressman then senate votes and says fuck that shit.

A lot like what happened to Clinton .


I wanted all dem or all republican resolution  here.

Instead we get 2 years of mud.


I think this  result may get trump re-elected much like Clinton was.

At eddie13 you should go back and look at what was said on sat nite live. News part Michael Che called for demacrats to move to red states to defeat republicans and end the right wing movement.

Basic numbers say that could work.  Flood Texas flood Florida with California and New York liberals and we will never see another conservative get in.

Give NY CA FL TX to dems and it crushes the right wing movement. I wonder if this will be a new move to attack the right.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
suchmoon
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November 07, 2018, 04:28:27 AM
 #17

The country may be too far gone to see a conservative pop vote anymore.. Sad, but the states will still vote conservative often, senate and Ec, because we aren't all corrupted yet..

It's pretty hard to believe so many people are still willing to hand power to leftists seeing all the shit they have pulled recently.. Free stuff for yourself at the expense of your country is powerful I suppose.. Importing more every day..   
Their quest for ultimate power is still in full force.. The Trump election may have just been a temporary reprieve of the downfall of the west, back to business as usual..

You're tremendously mistaken:



philipma1957
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November 07, 2018, 05:27:27 AM
Merited by bones261 (1)
 #18

FL passed the right to vote for felons that have served their time.

So 1,500,000 new people can vote.

Most of those felons were black men that were busted for drugs. So this will mean trump will find it harder to win FL in 2020.

Interesting times.

In my state of NJ  Menendez won senate against Hugin  this was a senator race.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
squatz1
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November 07, 2018, 06:06:12 AM
 #19

The country may be too far gone to see a conservative pop vote anymore.. Sad, but the states will still vote conservative often, senate and Ec, because we aren't all corrupted yet..

It's pretty hard to believe so many people are still willing to hand power to leftists seeing all the shit they have pulled recently.. Free stuff for yourself at the expense of your country is powerful I suppose.. Importing more every day..   
Their quest for ultimate power is still in full force.. The Trump election may have just been a temporary reprieve of the downfall of the west, back to business as usual..

You're tremendously mistaken:




Honestly, even though the GOP did lose the house -- this was expected to happen due to the location of the house races (suburbs, tough area for GOP in this day and age) It's going to be some time until we know how large the house majority is, but I don't expect it to be too large -- that's a slim majority that had a good deal of moderates elected in it.

The blue wave never came, and GOP made gains in the Senate. Divided government, though GOP still has the Supreme Court, The Senate, and The Presidency.




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November 07, 2018, 06:13:15 AM
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