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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 20, 2024 USDJPY

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An event to look out for today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits

USDJPY:

The USD and JPY pair is trading above the 158.00 price level during the Asian session today and remains a step away from the highest level since late April reached last week. Nevertheless, the mixed fundamental backdrop calls for some caution before positioning for a continuation of the recent gains seen over the past two weeks.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is weakened by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to refrain from discussing the reduction of JGB issuance until its next meeting. In addition, the bullish tone in global stock markets is reducing demand for the safe-haven Yen and providing support to the USD/JPY pair. However, speculation that the Japanese authorities may intervene to support the national currency, along with ongoing geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty in Europe, should limit a significant decline in the yen.

In addition, hawkish remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda earlier this week that the central bank may raise rates in July depending on economic data may deter bears from aggressively betting on the JPY. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) continues to struggle to attract meaningful buyers and languishes near weekly lows amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates twice this year, backed by signs of fading inflation. This could help to contain the USD/JPY pair.

Today, market participants pay attention to the economic agenda in the US, where, as usual, initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and housing market data - building permits and housing starts - will be released. These data, as well as the US bond yields and the Fed's speech will influence the USD price dynamics and will give some impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Traders will focus on broader risk sentiment to capitalize on short-term opportunities ahead of the release of Japanese core CPI and global PMIs on Friday.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level

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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 21, 2024 EURUSD

Events to pay attention to today:

11:00 GMT+3. EUR - Composite PMI

11:30 GMT+3. GBP - Composite PMI

16:45 GMT+3. USD - Composite PMI

EURUSD:

The US Dollar (USD) remains resilient early Friday after rising against major rivals on Thursday. Later in the day, S&P Global will release preliminary reports on manufacturing and services PMIs for Germany, the UK, the eurozone and the US for June. Ahead of the weekend, market participants will also keep a close eye on May US existing home sales data and May Canadian retail sales data. EUR/USD returned to familiar technical levels on Thursday, falling towards 1.0700 after a miss in US economic data supported the dollar.

Germany's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell to 0.0% month-on-month in May, down from the previous reading of 0.2% and missing the expected rise to 0.3%. On an annualized basis, the PPI was also below expectations, falling to -2.2% for the year ending in May. While the annualized figure improved from the previous reading of -3.3%, it still fell short of the projected recovery to -2.0%.

The latest US initial jobless claims data came in above expectations: 238,000 people applied for unemployment benefits in the week ended June 14, up from the previous week's revised figure of 243,000. The increase also pushed the four-week average to 242,750 from the previous 227,250.

The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing sector business activity index for June fell to 1.3 from 4.5, falling short of the expected 5.0. In addition, U.S. housing starts in May fell to 1.277 million new units, down from the forecast of 1.37 million and the previous month's revised figure of 1.352 million.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level

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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 24, 2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:

The Euro-dollar pair remains lower for the third consecutive day on Monday, trading around 1.0690-1.0685 in the Asian session, just above the lowest level since early May. The common currency continues to be dragged down by uncertainty over the outcome of the snap election in France, which has fueled fears that the new government will worsen the financial situation in the Eurozone's second-largest economy. In addition, flash PMI indices released on Friday showed that business activity growth in the Eurozone slowed sharply in June. This, as well as some subsequent US Dollar (USD) buying, proved to be key factors putting downward pressure on EUR/USD.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, rose to its highest level since May 9 on the back of Friday's PMI data, which showed that US business activity rose to a 26-month high in June. The data confirms the Federal Reserve's (Fed) patient approach, although signs of weakening inflationary pressures have raised the prospect of a rate cut in September. This could deter dollar bulls from aggressive bets and help limit further EUR/USD declines.

Traders may also prefer to wait for Friday's release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data to get an indication of how the Fed will cut the rate. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing US Dollar price action in the near term and will provide meaningful momentum to the EURUSD. Traders are now waiting for the release of German IFO business climate data and speeches of influential FOMC members to take advantage of short-term opportunities in the absence of any significant macroeconomic releases from the US.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0700, and if the level is fixed above, take Buy positions.

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