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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 20, 2024 USDJPY

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An event to look out for today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits

USDJPY:

The USD and JPY pair is trading above the 158.00 price level during the Asian session today and remains a step away from the highest level since late April reached last week. Nevertheless, the mixed fundamental backdrop calls for some caution before positioning for a continuation of the recent gains seen over the past two weeks.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is weakened by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to refrain from discussing the reduction of JGB issuance until its next meeting. In addition, the bullish tone in global stock markets is reducing demand for the safe-haven Yen and providing support to the USD/JPY pair. However, speculation that the Japanese authorities may intervene to support the national currency, along with ongoing geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty in Europe, should limit a significant decline in the yen.

In addition, hawkish remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda earlier this week that the central bank may raise rates in July depending on economic data may deter bears from aggressively betting on the JPY. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) continues to struggle to attract meaningful buyers and languishes near weekly lows amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates twice this year, backed by signs of fading inflation. This could help to contain the USD/JPY pair.

Today, market participants pay attention to the economic agenda in the US, where, as usual, initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and housing market data - building permits and housing starts - will be released. These data, as well as the US bond yields and the Fed's speech will influence the USD price dynamics and will give some impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Traders will focus on broader risk sentiment to capitalize on short-term opportunities ahead of the release of Japanese core CPI and global PMIs on Friday.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level

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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 21, 2024 EURUSD

Events to pay attention to today:

11:00 GMT+3. EUR - Composite PMI

11:30 GMT+3. GBP - Composite PMI

16:45 GMT+3. USD - Composite PMI

EURUSD:

The US Dollar (USD) remains resilient early Friday after rising against major rivals on Thursday. Later in the day, S&P Global will release preliminary reports on manufacturing and services PMIs for Germany, the UK, the eurozone and the US for June. Ahead of the weekend, market participants will also keep a close eye on May US existing home sales data and May Canadian retail sales data. EUR/USD returned to familiar technical levels on Thursday, falling towards 1.0700 after a miss in US economic data supported the dollar.

Germany's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell to 0.0% month-on-month in May, down from the previous reading of 0.2% and missing the expected rise to 0.3%. On an annualized basis, the PPI was also below expectations, falling to -2.2% for the year ending in May. While the annualized figure improved from the previous reading of -3.3%, it still fell short of the projected recovery to -2.0%.

The latest US initial jobless claims data came in above expectations: 238,000 people applied for unemployment benefits in the week ended June 14, up from the previous week's revised figure of 243,000. The increase also pushed the four-week average to 242,750 from the previous 227,250.

The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing sector business activity index for June fell to 1.3 from 4.5, falling short of the expected 5.0. In addition, U.S. housing starts in May fell to 1.277 million new units, down from the forecast of 1.37 million and the previous month's revised figure of 1.352 million.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level

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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 24, 2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:

The Euro-dollar pair remains lower for the third consecutive day on Monday, trading around 1.0690-1.0685 in the Asian session, just above the lowest level since early May. The common currency continues to be dragged down by uncertainty over the outcome of the snap election in France, which has fueled fears that the new government will worsen the financial situation in the Eurozone's second-largest economy. In addition, flash PMI indices released on Friday showed that business activity growth in the Eurozone slowed sharply in June. This, as well as some subsequent US Dollar (USD) buying, proved to be key factors putting downward pressure on EUR/USD.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, rose to its highest level since May 9 on the back of Friday's PMI data, which showed that US business activity rose to a 26-month high in June. The data confirms the Federal Reserve's (Fed) patient approach, although signs of weakening inflationary pressures have raised the prospect of a rate cut in September. This could deter dollar bulls from aggressive bets and help limit further EUR/USD declines.

Traders may also prefer to wait for Friday's release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data to get an indication of how the Fed will cut the rate. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing US Dollar price action in the near term and will provide meaningful momentum to the EURUSD. Traders are now waiting for the release of German IFO business climate data and speeches of influential FOMC members to take advantage of short-term opportunities in the absence of any significant macroeconomic releases from the US.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0700, and if the level is fixed above, take Buy positions.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 25, 2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair demonstrated bullish sentiment on Monday, rising from recent lows to 1.2650 as markets commenced the new trading week with an appetite for risk. The week ahead will see a dearth of key economic data, so those trading in the cable will be keeping an eye on important calendar releases that will not be released until later in the week. The US and UK gross domestic product (GDP) data are scheduled for release at the end of the trading week, followed by the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index data on Friday.

The Tuesday release schedule is limited to averages, so markets will focus on statements from central bank policymakers. The Federal Reserve's few comments on Monday caused a minor jitter in markets, and the same is expected on Tuesday.

On Monday, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly observed that the 2024 inflation figures do not instil much confidence when viewed in aggregate, although recent data offers grounds for optimism. Fed Chair Daley's comments followed those made earlier by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee, who expressed optimism about further progress on inflation. He noted that Fed policy remains sufficiently restrictive.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.2700. We consider sell orders at the price level of 1.2660.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 26, 2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:

Japan's Deputy Finance Minister Masato Kanda confirmed that the government is ready to take appropriate measures if excessive currency fluctuations have a negative impact on the national economy. However, Kanda's comments had minimal impact on the Japanese Yen (JPY) exchange rate amid the Bank of Japan's reluctance to provide a detailed plan to reduce bond purchases. This is a significant divergence from the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair lies to the upside.

Amid the Fed's hawkish pause in June, recent comments from policymakers indicated that the central bank is in no hurry to start a rate cut cycle. Fed Chair Michelle Bowman on Tuesday reiterated her view that keeping rates steady for some time is likely to be enough to bring inflation under control. Fed Chair Lisa Cook said lower interest rates would be appropriate "at some point" given the significant progress in inflation and the gradual cooling of the labor market, but did not elaborate on the timing of the easing.

Nevertheless, signs of easing inflationary pressures in the US keep hopes alive for the Fed's first interest rate cut in September. This, in turn, keeps dollar bulls away from aggressive bets and limits the upside potential of the USD/JPY pair. Traders also prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of the final US GDP data for the first quarter on Thursday, which will be followed by the publication of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday. The latter indicator will influence the Fed's further decision and will determine the near-term trajectory of the currency pair.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Buy orders from the current price level

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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 27, 2024 EURUSD

Events to pay attention to today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - GDP volume change

EURUSD:

The Euro-dollar pair pulled back to the 1.0680 area on Wednesday after the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index for July unexpectedly declined, while a lack of meaningful data during the U.S. trading session left investors chewing over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious stance this week. Germany's consumer confidence reading for July fell to -21.8, falling short of forecasts for a recovery to -18.9 from the previous month's revised reading of -21.0. Despite a slow and steady recovery in the German GfK consumer confidence survey, Wednesday's downbeat publication knocked the legs out from under an already battered euro.

The change in U.S. new home sales in May recorded a -11.3% month-over-month decline on Wednesday (2.0%), sharply revised from the initial reading of -4.7%. U.S. GDP for the quarter is expected to rise slightly to 1.4% from an initial reading of 1.3%, while May durable goods orders are expected to contract by -0.1% from a revised 0.6% in the prior month. U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21 are expected to fall slightly to 236k from the previous reading of 238k, but the figure is expected to be above the four-week average of 232.75k.

Market confidence that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut rates on September 18 has declined. The probability of a rate cut of at least a quarter point fell to 60%, down from a peak of just above 70% last week, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Buy orders from the current price level

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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 28, 2024 GBPUSD

Events to pay attention to today:

09:00 GMT+3. GBP - Gross Domestic Product

15:30 GMT+3. USD - United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index m/m

GBPUSD:

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair fluctuated in familiar charts between the long-term moving averages, with price movement centred between the 1.2700 and 1.2600 marks. The data from the US was not as strong as anticipated, and market sentiment shifted towards the middle as investors await key US inflation data on Friday.

In advance of the pivotal US inflation data, the US presidential election is anticipated to commence on Friday morning. Investors will be monitoring the statements of all US presidential candidates for any indications of potential policy plans.

Additionally, the UK will release revised gross domestic product (GDP) data for the first quarter during the London market window. The consensus among market analysts is that UK GDP growth will remain in line with the initial 0.6% QoQ reading.

The initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending 21 June were better than expected, with 233k new claims for unemployment benefits compared to the forecast of 236k. This was down slightly from the previous week's 238k. The four-week average of initial jobless claims increased to 236,000, resulting in a new weekly figure that is below the average.

On Thursday, the US gross domestic product (GDP) met expectations, with the first quarter GDP revised slightly to 1.4% from an initial reading of 1.3%. Additionally, core personal consumption expenditures saw a modest increase in the first quarter, reaching 3.7% q/q compared to a projected 3.6%. The upcoming presidential debate, which begins after the market close on Thursday, will attract investors' attention as they look for potential policy clues from the candidates.

On Friday, investors will be monitoring the US PCE Price Index in anticipation of further declines in US inflation, which would facilitate a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The core PCE price index is forecast to decline from 0.2% to 0.1% m/m in May.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with sell orders at the price level of 1.2610. We consider buy orders at the price level of 1.2670.

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SAUDI ARABIA DELIVERS A MAJOR BLOW TO THE DOLLAR!

Oil prices have shown steady growth from $76 to $85 per barrel of Brent crude (#BRENT) since the beginning of June. This rise is driven by seasonal factors: high consumer activity during the summer driving season, increased demand from the transportation sector, and higher electricity consumption for air conditioning.

However, a more significant development in the oil market is the expiration of the 50-year-old Security Agreement between Saudi Arabia and the USA, signed in 1974, and Riyadh's refusal to renew it.

The agreement facilitated economic cooperation and military needs between the two nations, stabilizing the situation after the crises of the 1970s. The US benefited from oil at favorable prices, while Saudi Arabia gained a technological ally and wealth. Crucially, this agreement mandated that Saudi Arabia sell its oil exclusively for dollars, a restriction that no longer applies. This system greatly strengthened the dollar's position as the dominant global reserve currency by creating worldwide demand for dollars directly tied to oil transactions. Many have called this the "deal of the century."

Abandoning the petrodollar system could, in the long run, weaken the dollar's influence and impact US financial markets, reducing Washington's ability to accumulate national debt and profit from exports. Countries like China, Russia, Iran, and India are increasingly settling trades in their national currencies. By 2023, already 20% of global oil was being purchased without using the dollar. Now, Saudi Arabia can sell oil for any currencies or assets, including the yuan, gold, and even cryptocurrencies, which could significantly boost the value of these assets over time.

FreshForex analysts recommend closely monitoring changes in settlement schemes in the energy markets. Trading instruments like Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Gold (XAUUSD), and the US Dollar to Chinese Yuan (USDCNH) might become very profitable investments in the future.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 01, 2024 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 GMT+3. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

USDJPY:

The USD/JPY pair commenced the new week on a subdued note and consolidated its recent strong rise to its highest level since December 1986, reached on Friday. Spot prices are currently trading with a slight positive bias around the 161.00 mark, although the upside seems limited amid speculation of an imminent intervention by the Japanese authorities to support the currency.

In fact, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated at a press conference on Friday that excessive volatility in the currency market is undesirable and that the authorities will respond appropriately to such moves. Meanwhile, Japan appointed Atsushi Mimura as the new chief diplomat for foreign exchange issues on Friday. However, the move did not bring relief to the Japanese Yen (JPY) as investors are unsure of Atsushi's stance on monetary policy. This, along with the significant interest rate differential between the US and Japan, is likely to continue to provide a supportive environment for the USD/JPY pair.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has not yet indicated the timing of the next rate hike. In contrast, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been more proactive following its June meeting, forecasting only one interest rate cut in 2024. Furthermore, the likelihood of a Trump presidency is increasing concerns about the imposition of punitive tariffs, which could result in inflation and higher interest rates. This, in turn, lifts US Treasury yields to multi-week highs and continues to support the US dollar, lending further support to the USD/JPY pair and reaffirming the positive outlook.

Meanwhile, markets continue to assess the likelihood of a September Fed rate cut, given signs of weakening inflation. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index provided further confirmation of the disinflationary trend observed in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for May. This may dissuade those who are bullish on the dollar from making aggressive bets, and may limit the upside for the USD/JPY pair. Market participants are now awaiting the release of important US macroeconomic data scheduled for the beginning of the new month. This will include the ISM manufacturing PMI, which is scheduled for release on Monday.

Trade recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy orders from the current price level.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 02, 2024 EURUSD

Events to watch out for today:

12:00 GMT+3. EUR - Consumer Price Index

16:30 GMT+3. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde to deliver a speech

16:30 GMT+3. USD - Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board Jerome Powell will deliver a speech

EURUSD:

On Monday, EURUSD hit a new high since mid-June above 1.0770 before being forced back down due to a reversal in investor sentiment in the broad market. The bullish momentum was interrupted after US business activity data showed warning signs of a deepening economic slowdown. Throughout the week, investors will be anxiously awaiting key economic indicators on both sides of the Atlantic, culminating in fresh US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data scheduled for Friday.

German consumer price index (CPI) data on Monday generally failed to meet expectations, with the annualized German CPI in June falling to 2.2% from the previous reading of 2.4% and retreating from the forecast of 2.3%. Data from the US on Monday also fell short of expectations: the ISM manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 48.5 in June from 48.7 and fell short of the forecasted increase to 49.1. The ISM Manufacturing Goods and Services Price Index also declined sharply in June, falling to 5..1 from the previous reading of 57.0, further exceeding the forecasted decline to 55.9.

U.S. markets were suddenly rattled by renewed concerns about the upcoming presidential election in November. Recent public debates have left many questions about who will be the clear frontrunner, and on Monday the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that courts have limited ability to bring criminal charges against sitting presidents.

On Tuesday, markets will be hit with a fresh batch of key European data as well as a number of speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) executives, including another speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde. The pan-European Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is expected to fall slightly, with EU core HICP inflation falling to 2.8% y/y from a previous reading of 2.9%. Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data in Europe is due out on Wednesday, followed by EU retail sales data early Friday.

In the US, investors will await Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Tuesday, followed by ADP employment change data on Wednesday and the latest US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Average Hourly Earnings for June on Friday.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.0760. We consider sell orders at the price level of 1.0695.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 03, 2024 EURUSD

Events to pay attention to today:

11:00 GMT+3. EUR - Composite PMI

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Initial Jobless Claims Number

17:00 GMT+3. USD - ISM Services Business Activity Index

21:00 GMT+3. USD - Publication of the Fed meeting minutes

EURUSD:

The Euro-dollar pair spent Tuesday in fluctuations, looping just below 1.0750 as the pair struggles to find momentum. Key US employment data is released on Friday, while EU economic data remains patchy during the second half of the trading week.

Core HCOB Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation came in at 2.9% m/m in June, holding steady with the previous reading and defying the forecast for a decline to 2.8%. Overall, HICP inflation fell to 2.5% y/y as forecast, down from the previous reading of 2.6%, but European inflation remains well above the European Central Bank's (ECB) target range of 2%.

The EU Composite PMI for June is expected to remain at 50.8 and the annualized European Producer Price Index for May is expected to improve, albeit marginally, to -4.1% y/y from the previous reading of -5.7%.

The US ADP employment change for June is expected to rise slightly to 160k from the previous value of 152k. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI is expected to decline further to 52.5 m/m from the previous value of 53.8.

Trading Recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0750, if the level is fixed above, take Buy positions.

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