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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 03, 2024 GBPUSD

An event to look out for today:

17:00 GMT+3. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair is trading on a weak note near 1.3120 in the early European session on Tuesday. The major pair's decline is being fuelled by a strengthening US Dollar (USD) ahead of key economic data releases from the US. Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden will speak later on Tuesday, followed by the release of the US manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from ISM.

Investors increasingly believe the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin easing monetary policy at its upcoming meeting in September, estimating the probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut at nearly 69%, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell not only said at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole last month that ‘it is time for a policy adjustment.’

More Fed rate cuts could put pressure on the US dollar in the near term. Analysts at Rabobank currently expect four Fed rate cuts between September and January, and then a rate hold until the end of 2025. Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will be more significant than usual and could provide some hints on the size and pace of Fed rate cuts. The US economy is expected to have added 163,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate is expected to have fallen to 4.2%.

On the other hand, markets expect the Bank of England not to cut the rate at the September meeting, while there is an 87.2% chance of a 25bp rate cut at the November meeting. In the absence of crucial economic data from the UK this week, dollar price dynamics will be the main driver for GBP/USD.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.3160. We consider sell orders at the price level of 1.3090.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 04, 2024 USDJPY

An event to look out for today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Foreign Trade Balance

USDJPY:

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of Jibun Bank's Services PMI data on Wednesday. The index was revised to 53.7 in August from an initial estimate of 54.0. Despite this being the seventh consecutive month of growth in the services sector, the latest reading was unchanged from July.

Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Wednesday that he was ‘closely monitoring developments in domestic and international markets with a sense of urgency.’ Hayashi emphasised the importance of pursuing fiscal and economic policies in close coordination with the Bank of Japan (BoJ). He also emphasised the need to calmly assess market movements, but declined to comment on daily stock fluctuations.

The US Dollar is receiving support as traders are cautious ahead of the release of US employment data, particularly the August Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This data may provide additional information on the possible timing and extent of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 144.90, if it is fixed below, we consider Sell positions, if it rebounds, we consider Buy positions.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 05, 2024 EURUSD

Events to watch out for today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits

17:00 GMT+3. USD - ISM Index of Business Activity in the Services Sector

EURUSD:

EUR/USD trades close to 1.1080 during the Asian session on Thursday.

The dollar weakened after the publication of the July JOLTS report on the number of open job vacancies in the US, which failed to meet expectations and pointed to a further slowdown in the labour market. Job openings fell to 7.673 million in July, down from 7.910 million in June. This is the lowest level since January 2021 and below market expectations of 8.10 million.

Traders are now awaiting the release of ISM services PMI and US initial jobless claims scheduled for Thursday. On Friday, attention will shift to US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for more information on the potential size of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) expected rate cut this month.

Atlanta FRB President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday that the Fed is in a favourable position, but added that it should not maintain restrictive policy for too long, according to Reuters. FXStreet's FedTracker system, which rates the tone of Fed officials' speeches on a dovish to hawkish scale of 0 to 10 using a proprietary artificial intelligence model, rated Bostic's words as neutral with a score of 4.6.

In the eurozone, the producer price index rose 0.8 per cent month-on-month in July, the biggest increase since December 2022. This followed an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in June and was well above market forecasts of 0.3%. However, the eurozone services PMI fell to 52.9 in August from 53.3 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the composite PMI fell to 51.0, missing expectations and below the previous reading of 51.2, which was expected to be unchanged.

The Euro could face trouble amid strong speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates in September. This would be the ECB's second interest rate cut since it began to move towards policy normalisation in June. Policymakers remain confident that inflation will gradually return to the 2% target by 2025.

Trading Recommendation: Watch the level of 1.1110, if the level is fixed above we take Buy positions, if the level bounces back we take Sell positions.

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U.S. Department of Justice sends NVIDIA stocks tumbling

#NVIDIA shares plunged by 9.5% due to an antitrust investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice. This drop resulted in a $279 billion loss in NVIDIA's market capitalization, marking the largest single-session stock decline in the history of U.S. public companies.

FreshForex experts have analyzed the key risk factors affecting the company’s stock value:

• Antitrust investigation: The crash was triggered by a Bloomberg report that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has launched an antitrust investigation into #NVIDIA. Authorities suspect the company of abusing its dominant market position, making it difficult for customers to switch to other suppliers. According to sources, the DOJ has requested data from #NVIDIA that may form the basis of a lawsuit against the company.
• Impact of insider trading: xperts suggest that insider information about the investigation could have triggered the sell-off of #NVIDIA shares, which has caught the attention of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
• Financial performance and recession risk: Despite the stock drop, #NVIDIA's financial performance remains strong: revenue in the second quarter of the 2025 fiscal year increased by 122%, reaching $32.5 billion, while net income was $16.6 billion. The majority of the company’s revenue comes from data center products, including AI processors.

However, concerns about a possible U.S. recession and investor skepticism over the return on investments in AI infrastructure continue to pressure the market. Experts are comparing the current situation to the dot-com bubble of the 1990s, which led to a global market collapse.

• NVIDIA’s rise and fall in 2024: Since the beginning of 2024, #NVIDIA shares have risen by 118%, and on June 20, the company briefly became the world's most valuable public company with a market cap of $3.46 trillion. However, by the end of June, the stock had dropped by 13%, resulting in a $430 billion loss in capitalization.

Despite its strong financial performance, NVIDIA faces serious market and legal challenges that could impact its future development. It’s important to note that the demand for innovative technologies could shift the situation, and the tech giant’s growth remains possible.

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[FreshForex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 06, 2024 GBPUSD

An event to look out for today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Unemployment Rate

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair traded in positive territory for the third consecutive day around 1.3185 on Friday during Asian trading hours. Sustained weakness in the US dollar (USD) provides some support to the major pair. Market participants will be keeping a close eye on the US Non-Farm Payrolls data for August (NFP) due out later on Friday.

On Thursday, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that private sector employment grew at the weakest pace in three and a half years in August. The US private sector added 99,000 new jobs in August, down from a downwardly revised 111,000 in July and below the forecast of 145,000.

Markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates at its 17-18 September meeting. Later in the day, the Bureau of Labour Statistics will release the much-anticipated non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to show that the US economy added 160,000 jobs in August. This report has been a key event in shaping market expectations for the Fed Funds rate. A weaker than expected result could trigger a significant Fed rate cut and further undermine the dollar.

On the other hand, modest expectations of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) are boosting the Pound Sterling (GBP). Last month, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said that he believes long-term inflationary pressures are easing, but that there is no rush to cut rates further as it is too early to declare victory over inflation. Investors believe that the probability that the Bank of England will cut interest rates at the meeting on 12 September is about 25%, but the probability of a rate cut is fully embedded in the November price.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 09, 2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:

The USD/JPY pair ended its four-day losing streak, trading near 142.90 during the Asian session on Monday. The USD/JPY recovery can be partly attributed to lower than expected Japanese gross domestic product (GDP) data. However, strong economic growth, rising wages and persistent inflationary pressures continue to support expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may continue to raise interest rates, which could limit the decline in the Japanese Yen (JPY).

Japan's annualised GDP grew by 2.9% in the second quarter, slightly below the preliminary 3.1% and market estimate of 3.2%. Nevertheless, the figure was the strongest annualised rate since the first quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 0.7% in the second quarter, falling short of the market forecast of 0.8%, but showing the strongest quarterly growth since the second quarter of 2023.

In addition, the US dollar received support as Friday's US economic data added to uncertainty over the likelihood of an aggressive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its September meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets fully expect the Fed to cut rates by at least 25 basis points (bps) at its September meeting. The probability of a 50 bps rate cut fell slightly to 29.0% from 30.0% a week ago.

The US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) reported that non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased by 142,000 jobs in August, lower than the forecast of 160,000 but better than the downwardly revised July figure of 89,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, as expected, down from 4.3% in the previous month.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 142.40, if the level is below we consider Sell position, if the level rebounds we consider Buy position.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 10, 2024 GBPUSD

An event to look out for today:

09:00 GMT+3. GBP - Unemployment Rate

GBPUSD:

The Pound-Dollar pair extended its losing streak for the third consecutive day, trading near 1.3060 during Tuesday's Asian session. The pair's decline can be attributed to a strengthening US Dollar (USD), which received support as the latest US labor market data increased uncertainty over the likelihood of an aggressive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its September meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets fully expect the Fed to cut rates by at least 25 basis points (bps) at its September meeting. The probability of a 50 bps rate cut fell slightly to 29.0% from 30.0% a week ago.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee noted on Friday that Fed officials are beginning to agree with the broad market's view that a rate adjustment by the U.S. central bank is inevitable, CNBC reported.

In the U.K., investors are closely watching employment data for the quarter ended in July, which is due to be released on Tuesday. This labor market report could have a significant impact on market expectations regarding the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decisions for the rest of the year.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.3080. Consider Sell orders at the price level of 1.3050.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 11, 2024 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Consumer Price Index

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD exchange rate ended a three-day losing streak on Wednesday, trading near 1.1050 during the Asian session. The increase in EUR/USD can be attributed to a decline in the value of the US dollar in anticipation of the release of the North American Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The inflation report may provide new indications regarding the potential scale of the Federal Reserve's (the Fed) interest rate reduction in September.

The US dollar (USD) is encountering difficulties in the context of a sustained reduction in US Treasury bond yields.  As of this writing, the two-year and ten-year US Treasury bond yields are at 3.57% and 3.62%, respectively.

However, last week's US labour market report has introduced an element of uncertainty regarding the likelihood of an aggressive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its September meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the market anticipates a minimum 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting. The probability of a 50 bps rate cut has decreased slightly to 31.0% from 38.0% a week ago.

The euro was subject to downward pressure as a result of the latest German inflation data. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by 2.0% year-on-year in August, in line with expectations. The monthly index showed a 0.2% decline, in line with forecasts. Similarly, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at 1.9% year-on-year in August, meeting market expectations.

Trade recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy orders from the current price level.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 12, 2024 EURUSD

Events to watch out for today:

15:15 GMT+3. EUR - Publication of the ECB's decision on the key interest rate

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Number of Initial Jobless Claims

15:45 GMT+3. EUR - ECB Press Conference

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD pair struggled to gain momentum during the Asian session on Thursday and fluctuated in a narrow range, just above the psychological 1.1000 mark, or the four-week low reached the previous day. Traders, prefer to wait for the much-anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) meeting before positioning themselves for the next leg of directional movement.

The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) amid signs that Eurozone inflation is cooling. The bets were supported by data that Germany's consumer price (CP) index fell to its lowest level in three years in August and touched the ECB's 2% target. This in turn undermined the common currency and acted as a headwind for EUR/USD amid moderate strength in the US Dollar (USD).

The US CPI report released on Wednesday showed that US consumer prices are generally declining. However, the core CPI indicates that underlying inflation remains resilient and dashes hopes of a larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week. This is underpinned by a rise in US Treasury bond yields and brings the Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the quid against a basket of currencies, to a one-month peak.

At the same time, the markets fully appreciated the prospects of the Fed easing cycle and a 25 bps rate cut following the FOMC meeting on 17-18 September. This, along with the optimistic market sentiment, has restrained further strengthening of the safe-haven US Dollar. This should continue to provide some support for EUR/USD ahead of a key central bank risk event and warrants caution from bearish traders.

Investors may also prefer to wait for the ECB's updated economic forecasts, which, along with Christine Lagarde's comments, will have an impact on the EUR exchange rate. In addition, the publication of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) could provide fresh impetus to EUR/USD and create some meaningful trading opportunities later in the North American session.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 13, 2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:

The USD/JPY pair weakened further below the mid 141.00s during the Asian session on Friday and is now back closer to the YTD low reached earlier this week. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop seems to be leaning in favor of bearish traders and supports the prospects of a continuation of the established downtrend seen over the past two months.

The US Dollar (USD) fell to a fresh weekly low amid rising bets for more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing next week, bolstered by the release of a softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. In fact, markets are now pricing in a more than 40% probability that the US central bank will cut borrowing costs by 50 basis points at the end of its September meeting. This keeps US Treasury yields near 2024 lows, which puts pressure on the dollar and leads to a decline in the USD/JPY pair.

The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, continues to receive support from hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) indicating that it will raise interest rates further if the economic outlook matches forecasts. Moreover, BoJ board member Naoki Tamura said on Thursday that the road to ending soft policy is still very long. This represents a significant divergence from dovish Fed expectations, which in turn encourages further pullback in Japanese Yen (JPY) and contributes to the tone of the USD/JPY pair.

The aforementioned fundamental backdrop indicates that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside, although traders may prefer to move sideways ahead of a key central bank event that could occur next week. The Fed is due to announce its decision at the end of its two-day meeting next Wednesday. This will be followed by the BOJ's policy update on Friday, which will determine the next leg of directional movement for the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, the pair remains on track to end the second week in the negative.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 16, 2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD currency pair commenced the week on a positive note, rising to the 1.1090 level during the Asian trading session on Monday. Investors are now awaiting the US Federal Reserve's (the Fed) decision, which is expected later this week. There is still no consensus among market participants as to whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points.

The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 48.0% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has increased to 52.0%, up from 50.0% a day earlier.

Investors will be monitoring the FOMC press conference closely in order to gain insight into the future trajectory of US interest rates. Should Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announce a more aggressive easing approach, this could exert downward pressure on the US dollar, thereby providing potential momentum for EUR/USD.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Central Bank of Ireland Governor Gabriel Makhlouf stated on Friday that the central bank is still operating in a 'highly uncertain environment' and will rely on data to inform future monetary policy decisions. Mr Makhlouf was keen to stress that the ECB is not committing to a specific rate choice, but remains 'determined to ensure' that eurozone inflation returns to the 2% target 'in a timely manner'.

The latest research from Rabobank highlights that the ECB announced a second rate cut in this cycle last week, with another cut expected before the end of the year. The latest ECB staff forecasts also reflect a downward revision to eurozone growth. While expectations of Fed policy easing may weaken the US dollar, Rabobank believes that unfavourable eurozone fundamentals are likely to limit EUR/USD's upside potential in the near term.

Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 1.1100, when fixing above it we take Buy positions, when rebounding we take Sell positions.

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Why haven't you profited from oil yet???

Oil prices are falling rapidly due to several factors:

* Increased crude production in the U.S. and other countries not part of the OPEC+ agreement.
* Decreased demand from a major consumer, China. In August, demand dropped by 7% year-over-year.

On September 10, 2024, the price of #BRENT oil fell to $68.44 per barrel — the lowest since December 2021!

Analysts at Gunvor and Trafigura predict that global Brent oil prices could drop to $60 in the near future. In response, eight OPEC+ member countries have agreed to extend production cuts until December 2024. However, the efforts of the commodity deal participants have yet to yield the desired results...

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 17, 2024 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Retail Sales

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair reached a high on a relatively quiet Monday, marking the start of the new trading week with a renewed bullish sentiment and a move back towards 1.3200. Investor sentiment remains positive as markets anticipate significant central bank speeches this week, with a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve and another Bank of England (BoE) speech widely expected.

The US retail sales figures are scheduled for release on Tuesday, but the key indicator, which typically causes some volatility, is not expected to have a significant impact this week unless the data deviates significantly from expectations. The month-on-month retail sales growth for August is forecast to decelerate to 0.2% from July's 1.0%, while the underlying month-on-month retail sales figure (excluding auto purchases) is expected to slow to 0.3% from 0.4%.

In the UK, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released at the start of Wednesday. It is anticipated that the annualised figure for August will remain at 2.2% year-on-year. As with US retail sales, the standalone figure is not expected to have a significant impact on the market as long as it falls within a reasonable range of average market forecasts.

Investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will commence a new cycle of interest rate reductions on Wednesday. The key issue now is not when this will occur, but rather the extent of the cuts. CME's FedWatch tool indicates that traders anticipate a 60% probability of a 50 bp reduction in the federal funds rate, with the remaining 40% expecting a more modest 25 bp cut. Betting markets also estimate an overall rate cut of 125-150 bps by the end of the year, with traders believing there is about an 80% chance of the Fed funds rate reaching 400-425 bps by 18 December, compared to the current interest rate of 525-550.

The Bank of England will also issue its own rate statement on Thursday, but it is anticipated to be considerably less noteworthy than the Fed's statement. It is anticipated that the Bank of England will maintain its principal discount rate at 5.0% this week. Additionally, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote in favour of maintaining the rate at seven to two, in contrast to the previous Bank of England meeting where a vote was cast to cut the rate by a quarter point, resulting in a five to four outcome.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.3200, when fixing above it we take Buy positions, when rebounding we take Sell positions.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 18, 2024 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

21:00 GMT+3. USD - FOMC Rate Decision

USDJPY:

The USD/JPY pair saw a fresh wave of selling during the Asian session on Wednesday, with the pair dropping below 142.00 in the last hour. This reversed some of the gains made overnight and paused the recovery from the lowest level since July 2023, which was reached earlier in the week. Meanwhile, fundamental analysis indicates that the most probable outcome for spot prices is a decline, although market participants may exercise caution in placing aggressive wagers ahead of pivotal central bank events.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its decision following its two-day meeting on Wednesday, with expectations that it will commence its policy easing cycle. The market will then turn its attention to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy update on Friday, which will play a pivotal role in influencing the Japanese Yen (JPY) and provide fresh impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, cautious market sentiment and diverging expectations of future policy from the Fed and BoJ are driving safe-haven flows towards the JPY, exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY.

The market is pricing in the likelihood of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, amid signs of easing inflationary pressures. This has the effect of overshadowing Tuesday's better-than-expected US retail sales data, which is not helpful for the US dollar (USD) in consolidating an overnight rebound from the 2024 low. Conversely, recent indications from Bank of Japan officials point towards a further interest rate increase by the Japanese central bank before the end of the year. This has been a significant contributing factor to the recent relative rise in the Japanese Yen, which has helped to create a favourable tone around the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the JPY bulls appeared to remain undaunted by Japan's trade data for August, which revealed a notable decline in both exports and imports. Official data indicates that Japan's exports have risen for the ninth consecutive month, with an increase of 5.6% year-on-year in August. However, this growth is occurring at a slower pace than anticipated. This was accompanied by a much smaller-than-expected 2.3% rise in imports, which had little impact on the underlying bullish sentiment around the Japanese Yen. This indicates that the outlook for the USD/JPY pair in the near term is negative and supports the likelihood of a continuation of the recent downtrend.

Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 19, 2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD currency pair reached a new high for September following the Federal Reserve's (the Fed) unexpected decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday. This development has boosted risk appetite and prompted traders to adopt a more bullish stance. This is the first occasion on which the Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates for a period of four years.

The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) dot plot of aggregate economic forecasts was also revised downwards from the Fed's previous rate forecast. The median expectation of the Federal Reserve is that the federal funds rate will be 4.4% by the end of 2024 and 3.4% by the end of 2025. This is a reduction from the previous forecasts of 5.1% and 4.1%, respectively.

A closer examination of the Fed's notes reveals that the central bank now anticipates U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.0% through 2024, a downward revision from the previous 2.1% figure released in June. Additionally, Fed officials anticipate that the US unemployment rate will reach 4.4% by the end of 2024.

As the Fed finally met the expectations of the market, which had been demanding a rate cut since the beginning of the year, global markets turned their attention to the press conference of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Trade recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy orders from the current price level.

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Is crypto preparing for a new surge!?

Since March 2024, we've witnessed a significant decline in the cryptocurrency market. During this time, the price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has dropped by 20-30%, and many altcoins have lost 50-70%, retesting the lows of June 2022. Market participants, especially those who bought at March highs, are growing nervous, with many questioning the future of cryptocurrencies as an investment class.

However, this correction is normal in terms of market cycles and historical metrics. Moreover, U.S. presidential candidates are using the crypto market as a key element of their campaigns. This could temporarily hold back crypto growth, allowing the winning candidate to claim future successes.

Looking closer, several powerful factors are supporting the prospects of a crypto market rebound:

* Political context: The 2024 U.S. presidential election is in full swing, and both leading candidates are focusing on blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies. This creates a favorable environment for renewed interest in crypto as an investment tool. Campaign promises and discussions around supporting blockchain could stimulate interest among both private and institutional investors, potentially driving cryptocurrency growth.
* U.S. interest rate cuts: On September 18, the Federal Reserve lowered the key rate to a range of 4.75–5%, marking the first reduction since March 2020. This move aligns with market expectations but decreases the appeal of traditional financial instruments like bonds due to their lower yields. In such an environment, investors often seek higher-yielding assets, including cryptocurrencies.
* Bitcoin halving impact: One of the key events influencing Bitcoin's price is halving — the reduction in rewards for mining new blocks. The latest halving occurred in April 2024, and its effects typically appear within 5-8 months. Historically, halving creates a supply shortage, driving up Bitcoin prices. With Q4 2024 coinciding with this period, Bitcoin could surpass previous highs, potentially boosting other altcoins as well.

FreshForex analysts believe the cryptocurrency market holds significant growth potential for the rest of the year, thanks to a combination of macroeconomic factors, political support, and the halving effect. The current correction is an excellent opportunity to enter the crypto market before the upcoming rally! Don’t miss your chance—trade and profit with us!

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 20, 2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair reached a new 30-month high. A significant decline in the value of the US dollar prompted a risk-averse response in the cable market, resulting in a notable strengthening of the British pound. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) 50bp rate cut this week has prompted a risk-on stance across global markets, while the Bank of England's (BoE) concerns over rate retention have not resulted in a further strengthening of the Pound.

The only significant indicator on Friday will be UK retail sales for August, but it is unlikely to have a significant impact as investors are fatigued following the dual central bankers – the Fed and the Bank of England. Analysts anticipate a slight decline in UK retail sales for August, with a projected decrease from the previous reading of 0.5% to 0.4%. The annual figure is expected to remain at 1.4%.

On Thursday, the Bank of England voted seven to one in favour of maintaining interest rates at 5.0%, as expected. The Bank of England initiated a reduction in interest rates earlier in the summer, lowering them by a quarter point at its most recent meeting. However, this action may have been premature. Bank of England policymakers are awaiting further evidence of the UK economy's performance before making any further adjustments to interest rates.

In the US, initial jobless claims for the week ending 13 September fell to 219,000, down from the previous week's revised 231,000 and below the median market forecast of 230,000. The latest manufacturing activity survey from the Philadelphia Fed for September also exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing conditions index rising to 1.7 from the previous seven-month low of -7.0 and well above the -1.0 forecast.

In a statement to the markets, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell asserted that the 50bp rate cut implemented by the Fed this week was not a hasty reaction to deteriorating economic conditions. Instead, Powell explained that the move was an attempt to proactively support the US labour market. Powell was successful in suggesting that a rate cut of up to 0.5% should be renamed a 'recalibration'. Investors rewarded the Fed's latest strategy by investing in riskier assets and reducing their holdings of the safe-haven US dollar.

Trading recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy orders from the current price level.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 23, 2024 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

16:45 GMT+3. USD - Composite PMI

USDJPY:

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to lose ground for the third consecutive session on Monday in trading diluted by holidays. This downward movement could be influenced by growing concerns that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is in no hurry to raise interest rates.

The BoJ kept its interest rate target range of 0.15-0.25% at its meeting on Friday. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the central bank “will continue to adjust the level of monetary policy easing as necessary to achieve our economic and inflation targets.” Ueda recognized that while Japan's economy is showing a moderate recovery, there are still signs of weakness.

The US dollar (USD) continues to rise as Treasury yields recover their losses. However, the dollar could face challenges due to growing expectations of additional rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 50 percent chance of a 50 basis point rate cut to a range of 4.0-4.25 percent by the end of this year.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 144.00, if the level is fixed below consider Sell position, if the level rebounds consider Buy position.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 24, 2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD exchange rate saw a modest decline of 0.5% on Monday, indicating a loss of recent bullish momentum. The Fib declined on one of the most challenging trading days of the second half of the year, following the release of EU Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data that fell short of expectations and US PMI data that showed only slight improvement.

Tuesday will be a relatively quiet day for EUR/USD, with minimal data releases anticipated on either side of the Atlantic. However, there is expected to be a speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman.

Despite the dollar's general weakening following the Fed's surprise double rate cut last week, negative market sentiment towards the euro is preventing gains in the EUR/USD.

The September S&P US Manufacturing PMI declined to 47.0 m/m, reaching its lowest level since July 2023. This is indicative of the persisting gloomy outlook for business activity in the US manufacturing sector. In contrast, the S&P US Services PMI Purchasing Managers' Index declined to 55.4 in September, down from 55.7 in August. However, this figure exceeded the projected 55.2.

Austan Goolsbee, a policymaker at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and President of the Chicago Fed, made comments on Monday that had a chilling effect on the markets. He noted that the Fed may have to make further rate moves to keep business credit conditions liquid enough to keep the keel on U.S. business as record tightness in the U.S. labour market winds down.

Trade recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy orders from the current price level.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 25, 2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD continued to rally the Pound for the second day in a row, breaking above 1.3400 and hitting new 30-month highs after the US Dollar weakened significantly on Tuesday.

Wednesday will be quiet for the Pound in terms of data, although traders will be keeping an eye on statements from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Green. MPC member Green will be speaking at the North East England Chamber of Commerce.

The U.S. portion of Wednesday's economic data list is also underweight for the midweek market session. August's monthly new home sales figure is unlikely to have much momentum one way or the other, followed by a speech from Federal Reserve Board of Governors (Fed) member Adrian Kugler, who will speak at Harvard's Kennedy School in Cambridge.

Consumer confidence deteriorated across the board on Tuesday, with consumer expectations for 12-month inflation accelerating to 5.2 per cent. Consumers also reported a general weakening in their six-month outlook for household financial conditions, and consumer assessments of overall business conditions turned negative.

The pullback in consumer confidence results triggered renewed trading in the rates markets in favour of a subsequent sharp rate cut in November. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, rates markets are pricing in nearly 60% probability of a second 50 bps rate cut. 7 November and only a 40% probability of a more reasonable subsequent 25bp rate cut. Earlier in the week, traders were estimating roughly equal odds of a 50bp or 25bp rate cut.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level

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