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S&P 500 INDEX CONTINUES TO RISE - UP 9% SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR!

S&P 500, the key stock index comprising shares of the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the US, showed a growth of 23% in 2023, and has already added 9% since the beginning of this year.

FreshForex analysts have highlighted the following growth factors:

• Stable economic growth in the US and significant corporate earnings.
• Shares of the "Fabulous Seven" (companies strongly influencing the index such as #Apple, #Amazon, #Google, #Meta(Facebook), #Microsoft, #Nvidia, and #Tesla) are rising due to the implementation of artificial intelligence. The "Fabulous Seven" are still available for trading on our platform and represent an interesting idea for long-term investments. The Fed has again confirmed its readiness for three interest rate cuts, supporting growth in the American stock markets. Investors are eagerly awaiting new signals about the dynamics of interest rates in the US.
• Last month, analysts at HSBC and BofA Global Research forecasted that by the end of 2024, the index would reach 5400, while Oppenheimer estimated it at 5500.
• And yesterday, Wells Fargo, one of the largest financial companies in the US, forecasted that the #SP500 index will rise to 5535 points by the end of this year. This is the highest forecast among all brokerage firms on Wall Street.

Thus, investors around the world seem to be ignoring the possibility that stock valuations have risen too high against the backdrop of the overall market rally, providing even more opportunities for growth. At the same time, professionals will be monitoring whether Wall Street giants can justify the huge rise in stock prices seen over the past three months.

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BRIGHT SHINE OF GOLD ABOVE NEW PEAKS

On April 12, gold once again set a record, surpassing the $2400 per ounce mark. Since the beginning of the year, XAUUSD has already risen by +15%, which currently outpaces the US stock market nearly threefold (Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are currently showing growth of around 6%).

Against the backdrop of this historical surge, experts predict further price hikes for the precious metal, confidently stating the possibility of reaching $3000 per ounce.

FreshForex analysts have repeatedly forecasted such growth since November 2023. We believe that gold continues to be a profitable investment, supported by several factors:

• Geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty. Last year, gold prices increased by more than 19%, and according to analysts, there is still room for growth in this rally. Conflicts in the Middle East and other hotspots around the world increase the premium for geopolitical risk, maintaining interest in gold.
• Forecasts from major financial institutions' analysts. Bank of America and Citigroup are optimistic about gold's future, predicting its rise to $3000 per ounce in the coming years. Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast to $2700 per ounce, and UBS expects it to reach $2500 by the end of 2024. Analysts believe that increased investor inflows, expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and active purchases by major central banks and consumers in China will support this growth.
• Investors view gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.Demand for the precious metal strengthens during periods of declining confidence in risky assets such as currency, stocks, and bonds, and it is forecasted that this trend will continue, pushing gold prices to new heights.

Thus, confidence in gold remains unshaken, giving the green light for new investment flows and trading ideas. Our traders have assessed market sentiment and actively use the XAUUSD trading pair in their strategies.

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Secrets of success on the American stock market

Snapchat (#Snapchat) shares surged by 27% to $14.5 per share, following the post-market trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, April 26. And they continue to climb this week.

Several factors contributed to this rapid growth:

• Demand for Snap shares increased after the release of financial results. Snap noted that its business is growing faster than expected, thanks to the update of its advertising system and higher demand for features that help brands increase sales or clicks on websites.
• In the first quarter, the number of daily active users (DAUs) grew by 10% to 422 million. According to StreetAccount, analysts expected 420 million users. Snap also expects to generate revenue of $1.23 billion in the second quarter, higher than analysts' expectations ($1.22 billion).
• The company's revenue per user increased on a yearly basis for the first time since the beginning of 2022, reflecting the recovery of the advertising market and Snap's efforts to revive growth, said Morningstar analyst Michael Hodel.

Simultaneously with Snapchat's success, Tesla (#Tesla) shares began to soar sharply on news that Elon Musk, during his visit to China, reached an agreement with the Chinese technology giant Baidu (#Baidu). The companies will collaborate in the field of mapping and navigation, allowing Tesla to use its Full-Self Driving (FSD) software in China for fully autonomous driving. As a result, the electric car manufacturer's shares rose by 7.98% to $181.72 in pre-market trading on April 29.

Google (#Google) also made headlines by announcing its market capitalization. The market cap of Alphabet, Google's parent company, exceeded $2 trillion for the first time, reaching $2.15 trillion. According to TradingView, Alphabet now ranks fourth in the world by market capitalization. It is surpassed only by Microsoft (#Microsoft) with a market cap of $3.02 trillion, Apple (#Apple) with a market value of $2.61 trillion, and NVIDIA (#NVIDIA), whose market capitalization is $2.19 trillion.

And we remind you that the shares of these companies and many others are available for trading in our trading terminal. Still hesitating where to invest? FreshForex analysts have repeatedly pointed out the prospects for gold and bitcoin, and the forecasts have come true. And now is the time to invest in the fund. Earn with us!

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#GameStop is not going to STOP!

GameStop Corp (#GameStop) video game store chain shares soared by 46% during Monday's trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), reaching $25.

The surge didn't stop there, as on Tuesday the price reached up to $60 per share! Wednesday opened with a sudden downward gap, but by the end of the session, the price confidently recovered to $40. What will happen today?

The rollercoaster ride repeats itself with this stock after the sudden return to social media by YouTube streamer Keith Gill, known as Roaring Kitty. He posted a mysterious message on the X service (formerly Twitter), showing that he's always in the know. Gill's post garnered over 8 million views within hours of its late Sunday posting, marking his first post on the account since June 2021.

The surge in stock prices led to a so-called "short squeeze" - a situation where investors betting against the stock and opening short positions are forced to buy stocks as their prices unexpectedly rise, contrary to their expectations. This situation further fueled the rise in shares, which appreciated by hundreds of percent. As a result, funds betting against the company's stocks lost billions of dollars. Giacomo Pierantoni, Head of Data at Vanda Research, stated that the overwhelming majority of demand for shares now comes from retail investors. It seems that, as in January 2021, investors are betting against those shorting GameStop Corp (#GameStop) shares, notes MarketWatch.

Just recently, on May 2nd, FreshForex analysts drew attention to the US stock market, after which the price of Snapchat (#Snapchat) shares increased by 10%! Our analysts' forecasts for gold not only came true but the asset also surpassed its historical maximum twice!

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Where is the big money flowing in the markets?

Yesterday, on May 20, gold (XAUUSD) reached a new all-time high of $2450 per ounce! At its peak, the growth was an impressive 17.5% since the beginning of the year!

Some analysts had previously predicted a rise up to $3500 per troy ounce, and current prices are confirming these forecasts.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) also did not lag behind. The leading cryptocurrency gained 8% yesterday, reaching $72,000. Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has grown by 73%!

FreshForex analysts are confident that gold and Bitcoin form a powerful duo for protecting and growing capital. Here's why:

- Inflation Hedge: Gold and Bitcoin are often viewed as hedges against inflation. Both assets have a limited supply (finite amount of gold on Earth, finite number of Bitcoin), which increases their value amid rising money supply.

- Portfolio Diversification: Investors and traders, fearing inflation, prefer gold and Bitcoin as stable assets that can better preserve their value over time.

- Capital Inflow: Wealthy investors and speculators have always bought precious metals to preserve capital. The launch of Bitcoin funds on the exchange attracts new large investors, supporting high prices.

- Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts in Europe and the Middle East increase the demand for stable and safe assets.

We’re tired of repeating it, but our analysts have consistently predicted the current rise in both gold and Bitcoin, and they are now confident that the growth is not yet over.

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[FreshForex]

ECB undermines the euro again

Event to watch out for today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Durable Goods Orders

EURUSD:

The Euro-dollar pair continues to decline around 1.0808 in the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) recovery, supported by stronger US PMI data, is pulling the major pair down. German gross domestic product (GDP) data for the first quarter (Q1) is due out on Friday. Quarterly GDP is forecast to rise by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while annual GDP is forecast to contract by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter.

The dollar gained on the back of favorable economic data from the U.S. released on Thursday. The S&P Global Flash US Purchasing Managers' Composite Index (PMI) for May rose to 54.4 in May from 51.3 in April, the highest reading since April 2022. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in May from 50.0 in April. The services PMI rose to 54.8 in May from the previous reading of 51.3. Both indicators were above the market consensus. In addition, weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending May 18 fell to 215k from 223k the previous week, below the forecast of 220k.

Moreover, speculation is growing that the European Central Bank (ECB) will start cutting interest rates ahead of the Fed, putting pressure on the Euro. ECB President Christine Lagarde said she is “really confident” that Eurozone inflation is under control and an interest rate cut is possible next month. According to LSEG, financial markets are currently pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in June.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly on Sell from the current price level.

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ETHEREUM REACHES NEW HEIGHTS

Ethereum (ETHUSD) is once again at the peak of interest in the crypto community, and it's no coincidence. Here are some key events:

1. ETF Breakthrough: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has finally approved 8 applications to launch Ethereum ETFs from giants like BlackRock and Fidelity. This SEC decision is primarily political and opens the doors to new investments from the masses. It is expected that the Ethereum ETF will attract between $5 and $8 billion.

2. Successful Network Upgrade: The recent Ethereum network upgrade, known as Dencun, brought significant improvements in scalability and security. These changes, including new smart contract capabilities, will make the Ethereum network even more attractive to developers and users, driving further growth.

3. Analysts’ Forecasts Fuel Interest: Analysts agree that the approval of the ETF and the successful network upgrade can significantly impact the value of the second-largest cryptocurrency and may even trigger a new "altcoin season," similar to how Bitcoin ETF approval previously led to substantial price increases across various crypto pairs.

All these factors create optimistic prospects for the cryptocurrency as a whole, attracting the attention of investors and developers. So, if you haven't tried it yet, now is the perfect time to consider investing in the world of cryptocurrencies.

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[FreshForex]

NVIDIA STOCK SALE FOR $115!

Can you find anyone in the 21st century who hasn't heard of NVIDIA, the leader in high-performance computing solutions for the most complex tasks? The corporation's developments have become widespread in the video game industry, professional visualization, crypto mining, and autonomous vehicles.

The latest peak of #NVIDIA shares on the NASDAQ was nearly $1150, and since the beginning of the year, the price has already increased by 130%!

But the extravaganza of generosity for investors doesn’t stop there. Recently, the tech giant announced a 10-to-1 stock split, scheduled for June 10.

Remember, after the previous stock split on July 20, 2021, #NVIDIA's price rose almost 85% without any pullbacks. And now Wall Street analysts are predicting continued growth, driven by several factors:

• Strong financial health: In the first quarter of 2024, Nvidia reported a 262% increase in revenue ($26 billion) compared to the same period last year, exceeding analysts' expectations. The announcement also mentioned a 150% increase in dividends, further signaling optimistic growth prospects.
• Diversification of product lines: The corporation continues to expand its product range, including processors for gaming systems, professional video, and autonomous vehicles. This helps minimize risks and dependence on specific economic sectors, as well as attract new customers.
• Increasing demand in AI and cloud computing: Nvidia is driven to enhance existing technologies and develop new chip designs, leading to revenue growth and higher stock value.
• Continuous investment in new developments: The company consistently invests significant funds in researching new technologies, allowing Nvidia to stay ahead of competitors and create products that meet the rapidly changing market demands.
• After the 10-to-1 stock split, the price will become much more accessible, attracting new private investors and additional investments.

Thus, based on the company's strong financial foundation, innovation leadership, and rapid growth in product demand, FreshForex analysts are confident that NVIDIA shares will continue to rise, and the 230% growth in 2023 is far from the limit.

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What are FreshForex traders profiting from?

This week, the financial news market is buzzing with mixed events. Oil prices continue to fall, while American stocks are delighting investors with unexpected rises.

FreshForex traders have quickly capitalized on these events to make profits. Let's take a closer look at what’s happening and why.


Black gold is getting cheaper

At the beginning of this week, oil prices fell again, causing concern among investors. Market volatility is increasing due to fears about future demand and a possible easing of production restrictions by OPEC+ by the end of the year. Brent crude oil fell below $77 per barrel on Tuesday!

Oil prices declined following decisions made by OPEC+ at their June 2 meeting. The organization announced a gradual lifting of oil production restrictions, affecting market sentiment. Moreover, disappointing figures from the US manufacturing PMI (ISM) also played a role: at the end of May, the index dropped below 50 points to 48.7, indicating a decline in the sector. The rise in borrowing costs, limited investments, and increased raw material costs are challenging American industry.

Experts are divided: Goldman Sachs sees potentially negative consequences for the market from OPEC+'s decision, while UBS and RBC analysts believe that the cartel will manage the market flexibly, gradually easing restrictions.


Rises in the US stock market

Meanwhile, optimism reigns in the US stock market. The price of tech giant Apple (#Apple) exceeded a 5-month high, surprising Wall Street once again. The company’s profits surpassed expectations, causing a buzz among investors that continues to this day.

Microsoft (#Microsoft) shares continue to rise. Microsoft is developing and training its own AI model, MAI-1, which could compete with models from Google, Anthropic, and even OpenAI, according to a Yahoo report. The company's first-quarter revenues were supported by high demand for AI products.

Micron (#Micron) shares are soaring. The company is poised to become one of the largest beneficiaries of AI demand in the chip industry. Micron announced strong quarterly results and an optimistic earnings forecast for the current quarter.

Once again, GameStop Corp (#GameStop) became sensational news. As we mentioned earlier, the company’s shares soared following new content from popular YouTube streamer Keith Gill, known as Roaring Kitty. In a recent Reddit post, Gill shared a screenshot of his investment portfolio, which included a significant holding of GameStop shares and call options. This information sparked another explosive interest in the stock, doubling its price to $47 on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Monday, June 3. We already mentioned GameStop in May, so for our regular readers and active traders, the latest surge was no surprise.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 07, 2024 GBPUSD


An event to look out for today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Change in the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair traded in positive territory for the third consecutive day around 1.2785 in the early Asian session on Friday. In the absence of key UK economic data releases, the GBP/USD pair will be influenced by the US dollar. All eyes will be on the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for May, due out later on Friday.

Traders raised bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates later this year, which led to a decline in the US Dollar (USD) and bond yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which reflects the value of the dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, fell to 104.10 and 10-year US bonds fell to 4.285%. Markets estimate the probability of a Fed rate cut in September at about 68%, down from 55% earlier in the week, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

On Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims for the week ended May 31 rose 229,000 from the previous reading of 221,000, beating the market consensus forecast of 220,000. Investors will be focused on U.S. employment data for May.

NFP forecast that the US economy will add 185,000 new jobs in May and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 3.9% for the same period. Weaker-than-expected employment data may trigger speculation of a Fed rate cut, which will put pressure on the US dollar.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level

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[FreshForex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for June 10, 2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen (JPY) declined for the second consecutive trading day on Monday. The USD/JPY pair received support as the US dollar (USD) regained strength following the release of better-than-expected US jobs data on Friday.

On Monday, Japan released a combination of data that could potentially limit the decline in the Japanese yen. The annualised gross domestic product figure revealed that Japan's economy contracted at a slower rate than anticipated in the first quarter. In addition, the GDP (Q/Q) contracted in the first quarter, which coincided with the flash data.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, continues to appreciate due to higher US Treasury yields. A strong US jobs report is anticipated to reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a 25-basis-point or greater rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has declined to approximately 48% from 54.8% a week ago.

Trade recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy orders from the current price level.

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[FreshForex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for June 11, 2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD exchange rate rose during the Asian session on Tuesday and is currently trading in the 1.0765-1.0770 area. However, there is currently a lack of strong follow-through buying. Furthermore, the fundamental backdrop and technical situation call for some caution before positioning for a continuation of the previous day's modest bounce from the 1.0735-1.0730 area, or one-month low.

The US Dollar (USD) continues to be well supported by growing recognition that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates on hold for longer, helped by stronger-than-expected US jobs data released on Friday. In addition, the decision by French President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap election later this month has increased political uncertainty in the Eurozone's second-largest economy, which could continue to undermine the common currency. This, in turn, favours bearish traders and confirms a negative outlook for EUR/USD in the near term.

Conversely, the overnight low around 1.0735-1.0730 now seems to protect the near-term downtrend ahead of the round figure of 1.0700. Further selling will be seen as a new trigger for bearish traders, taking the EUR/USD pair to the next relevant support around 1.0650-1.0640. Eventually, spot prices could fall towards testing 1.0600, or the low since the beginning of the year reached in April.

Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.

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[FreshForex]

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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 12, 2024 GBPUSD

Events to pay attention to today:

09:00 GMT+3. GBP - Gross Domestic Product

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Consumer Price Index

21:00 GMT+3. USD - FOMC Rate Decision

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair is trading with slight losses around 1.2740 in the early Asian session on Wednesday. The continued rise in the US dollar (USD) amid cautious sentiment is exerting pressure on the major pair. Investors will be monitoring the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be released hours before the FOMC meeting.

The stronger US jobs report released last week has led to a shift in expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates in September. However, a softer-than-expected inflation report could influence Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to maintain his stance of three interest rate cuts before the end of the year. This could consequently exert pressure on the US dollar. The US Consumer Price Index is anticipated to have increased by 3.4% year-on-year in May, while the core CPI for the same period is expected to have risen by 3.5% year-on-year.

The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain its current interest rate structure at its June meeting on Wednesday. Traders will be monitoring the latest interest rate forecasts to identify the number of times the Fed is expected to cut rates in 2024. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that market expectations are for one to two rate cuts in 2024.

Conversely, the UK labour market experienced a fourth consecutive contraction. The change in the number of people in employment in the three months to April was 140,000 lower than the previous figure of 177,000. In other news, the ILO unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in the three months to April, up from 4.3% in the previous period. This was above market expectations of 4.3%. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits increased by 50,400 in May, up from 8,400 in April. Following the release of disappointing reports, the value of the pound declined. The unemployment rate and number of jobless claims data for May revealed a concerning picture of the UK labour market.

Trading recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.

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[FreshForex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for June 13, 2024 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Producer Price Index

USDJPY:

The Japanese Yen (JPY) retreated from its recent gains on Thursday, while the US Dollar (USD) rose following assertive statements from the US Federal Reserve (FOMC), boosting the USD/JPY pair. At its meeting on Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the benchmark lending rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50 per cent for the seventh consecutive time, as expected.

The Japanese Yen may experience limited declines as market participants exercise caution ahead of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision on Friday. While the BoJ is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, traders will be monitoring any announcements regarding a potential reduction in the central bank's monthly bond purchases.

The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate reduction of at least 25 basis points in September has decreased to 61.5% from 69.4% a week earlier.

On Thursday, investors will be monitoring the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which is expected to provide further insight into the current state of the US economy.

Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Buy orders from the current price level.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 14, 2024 EURUSD

Events to pay attention to today:

17:00 GMT+3. USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment

20:30 GMT+3. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD is trading at a flat rate of around 1.0735 on Friday in early Asian trading. The pair's growth may be limited due to uncertainty related to the European Parliament elections. Investors will be focusing on Christine Lagarde's speech at the ECB and the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment report for June.

The European Parliament elections have exposed rifts in several member states. In France, following the defeat of the far-right Rassemblement Nationale, President Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament and called snap elections, which could result in a strengthening of the far-right in the country's parliament, according to the website of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

The combination of political uncertainty in Europe and rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) could put some pressure on the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar at the moment. At its June meeting last week, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), a move widely anticipated by market participants. As a result, the ECB's key rate fell to 3.75% from a record 4% since September 2023. Financial markets have fully priced in another rate cut this year, but economists polled by Reuters last week forecast two more rate cuts by the end of 2024.

The US producer price index (PPI) came in weaker than expected, with a 2.2% increase in May compared to April's 2.3% (revised from 2.2%), according to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics' Thursday report. In contrast, the core producer price index increased by 2.3% year-on-year in May, below the consensus estimate of 2.4% and April's 2.4%. The number of individuals filing initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending 6 June increased by 242,000 from the previous week, exceeding the market consensus forecast of 225,000.

However, the weak US economic data did not result in a decline of the dollar against its peers, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) signalled that it will cut its key interest rate just once by 25 basis points (bps) until the end of 2024. In a statement to the BBC, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that only "modest" progress had been made towards the target. He also noted that the US central bank would need to see a "good measure of inflation" before cutting interest rates.

Trade recommendation: If the price consolidates below 1.0720, we start selling. In case of overcoming the mark 1.0750 - buy

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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 17, 2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:

The USD/JPY pair continues to rally near 157.50 in the early Asian session on Monday. The hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is providing some support to the pair. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is losing ground as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to keep the interest rate at 0% following its June meeting on Friday.

The Fed left interest rates unchanged in the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% at its last meeting last week, as widely expected. In addition, the Fed revised its forecast for a rate cut to one in 2024. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference that the central bank doesn't yet have the confidence to cut rates and needs more convincing evidence that inflation is moving toward the 2% target. On Sunday, Minneapolis FRB President Neel Kashkari said the "reasonable forecast" is that the Fed will wait to cut interest rates until December, adding that the Fed is in a very good position to get more data before making any decisions.

On Friday, the preliminary report on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, a monthly survey of U.S. consumer confidence, fell to a 7-month low in June at 65.6 from 69.1 in the previous reading, below the forecast of 72.0. Nevertheless, the low consumer confidence data had little impact on the dollar.

As for the yen, the Bank of Japan left the benchmark interest rate unchanged in a range of 0% to 0.1% at the end of its two-day meeting on Friday, but indicated that it may reduce its purchases of Japanese government bonds after its next monetary policy meeting in July. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also said he did not rule out raising interest rates in July as the weakening Japanese yen (JPY) drives up the cost of imports. "The decision suggests that the BOJ is very cautious about reducing bond purchases, which means the central bank is also cautious about raising rates," said Takayuki Miyajima, senior economist at Sony Financial Group. This dovish stance of the BoJ continues to undermine the Japanese Yen and acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Buy orders from the current price level

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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 18, 2024 EURUSD

Events to pay attention to today:

12:00 GMT+3. EUR - Consumer Price Index

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Retail Sales

EURUSD:

The Euro-dollar pair is trading down near 1.0730 on Tuesday in the early hours of European trading. A moderate recovery in the US dollar is leading the major pair lower. Traders prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of the release of Eurozone inflation data and US retail sales data. US retail sales are expected to grow by 0.2% m/m in May.

The pan-European economic data is limited to mid-single digits this week, so markets will focus on Tuesday's upcoming US retail sales data. US retail sales are expected to increase 0.2% y/y in May after being unchanged at 0.0% in the previous month. Core retail sales, excluding auto sales, are also expected to be unchanged at 0.2%.

Various Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are scheduled to speak on the economic calendar during the week, with a number of policymakers expressing a markedly cautious stance on Monday. Although the latest inflation data showed a faster-than-expected decline, the Fed emphasized its reluctance to cut rates prematurely, stressing the need for more data before making any decisions.

At the end of the week, EU and US PMI data scheduled for Friday are expected to diverge: market forecasts expect a slight increase in activity in the EU and a slight decline in US PMIs.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0740, if the level is fixed above, take Buy positions, if the level rebounds, take Sell positions.

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[FreshForex]

WHAT DRIVES FRESHFOREX CLIENTS' PROFITS?

Specialists at Goldman Sachs Group have revised their year-end forecast for the S&P 500 index (#SP500) upward to 5,600 points. This adjustment is based on the assumption that negative earnings will be below average and that the price-to-earnings ratio is now considered fair.

Yesterday, the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high of 5,488 points! The index has already grown by 15.8% since the beginning of the year, and the upward trend is expected to continue.

We previously discussed the rise of the S&P 500 in April. Our traders closely monitor the market and engage in active trading, so this new surge was not a surprise to them.

The growth of leading American companies strengthens the resilience of the U.S. economy

The stock price of Applied Materials (#AppliedMat) has increased by 56% since the beginning of the year. Applied Materials is an American corporation that provides equipment, services, and software for the production of semiconductor chips used in electronics, flat panel displays, smartphones, televisions, and solar products. The rising demand for electronic chips fuels investor interest in this company.

Motorola Solutions (#Motorola), the successor of one of the oldest U.S. corporations, has transformed into a leading manufacturer of specialized communication devices and holds a monopoly in certain niches. The company's stock has grown by 22.6% since the start of the year. Motorola Solutions focuses on the highly profitable public sector procurement, leading to steady revenue growth for MSI.

Procter & Gamble (#PG) is a global leader in the consumer goods market, well-established in the U.S. and abroad. The stock of this defensive goods group (covering beauty and grooming, healthcare, fabric and home care, and baby, feminine, and family care products) has been growing steadily and reliably. Over the year, their value has increased by 15.6%.

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[FreshForex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for June 19, 2024 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

09:00 GMT+3. GBP - Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair has been unable to make meaningful gains on Wednesday and has been fluctuating in a narrow trading range around the round 1.2700 mark during the Asian session. Spot prices, meanwhile, are holding above the one-month low reached last Friday as traders await the release of the latest UK consumer inflation data with interest before positioning themselves for the next leg of directional movement.

The UK core consumer price index is expected to rise to 0.4 per cent in May from the previous reading of 0.3 per cent, while the annual rate is expected to slow to 3.5 per cent from 3.9 per cent in April. The data will play a key role in influencing the British pound (GBP) and will provide some momentum to the GBP/USD pair. The market will then turn its attention to Thursday's Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting, which will help determine the currency pair's near-term trajectory.

In the run-up to key central bank data and risks, weak US Dollar (USD) price action has been a key supportive factor for the GBP/USD pair. Tuesday's weaker-than-anticipated US retail sales report indicated signs of consumer fatigue and confirmed speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may begin cutting interest rates in September. This led to an overnight decline in US Treasury bond yields and is thought to have undermined the dollar.

The aforementioned fundamental backdrop supports the prospects for a significant strengthening of the GBP/USD pair. Nevertheless, the absence of follow-through buying calls for caution before taking a position on the continuation of the recent rebound from the mid-1.2600s or the one-month low reached last Friday.

Trading recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy orders from the current price level.

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