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November 03, 2011, 11:55:55 AM Last edit: November 03, 2011, 12:18:11 PM by Vandroiy |
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No idea what these exceedingly unfriendly comments are about. ElectricMucus, BitMagic, I don't think the forum's population should act as the "we know more than you so get lost" kind of elitists. It's not nice.
@Topic:
I'm not into micro-trading, but generally, there is an inverse relationship between volume and the price fluctuation size from which micro-trading becomes profitable. Real micro-trading is probably small in Bitcoin, simply because most volume is on Mtgox where, even with high volume, you don't get far below 0.3% fees on the side of the day-trader. This reduces volume and thus profits for micro-trading and arbitrage.
You didn't offer a time-scale for the volatility prediction. Bitcoin is generally volatile, and we might have an ending bust phase after the June bubble right now, so roughly predicting variance is not all that astonishing a feat. Another large-scale movement might happen, dwarfing any of the small fluctuations.
To answer the question in the topic: high short-time volatility*volume increases high-speed trading of bots. Similarly, high daily volatility*volume increases day-trader volume. Both kinds of traders ultimately reduce volatility again, creating a negative-feedback loop.
So, on long time-scales, day- and micro-trader volume is inversely proportional to the average absolute deviation of price minus the fee paid by one side.
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