CSW's "hash wars" impact on BTC price?

[talkbitcoin]

So how exactly does Craig Wright intend to destroy the ABC chain by orphaning a bunch of blocks?

based on his history of lies and deceit, all the threats that he has made so far have been empty. but some believed it and some miners even showed their support for his crappy fork. so here we are...

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[theymos]

ABC has far more economic support, and I suspect that enough hashrate will be moved to BCH-ABC at the critical time. It's most likely IMO that this will be resolved in ABC's favor within 48 hours.

I will be a bit surprised if SV wins, though it's not impossible. If SV wins, I suppose it'll be only after at least some weeks of war. This'd be the most funny and damaging for BCH, though I find CSW too distasteful to exactly hope for a SV win. It'd be especially funny if one side wins due to economic support despite losing on hashrate, which is possible.

I don't see much impact to BTC of losing 5-10% hashrate in this scuffle, especially since the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment is conveniently going to happen in ~1.5 days. I also don't see much fundamental reason for the BCH outcome to affect BTC's price, though who knows short-term: IMO the recent BTC crash was set off by Jihan trying to make some point (made possible due to low exchange depths/volumes).

[clrpod]

For anyone who hasn't looked. It's worthwhile following his twitter. He seems a little psychotic lately and has a huge vendetta with bitcoin. He's claiming responsibility for the latest crash and says he'll push bitcoin down to $1000 or less. If he keeps this up he's going to have a lot of enemies and with the amount of people he's claiming to have screwed out of a lot of money. He should be keeping himself hidden for some time.

[mu_enrico]

Agree with @theymos here, the assumed hash rate drop in BTC won't significantly affect BTC. Miner will always mine the most profitable coins in the long run.

The BTC price drop at the moment is not because of this drama. Technical analysis has predicted this event will eventually happen since the 6K support line has been tested multiple times before it finally breaks. And now, BTC is in the process of testing the 5K support line.

[naidray]

It will most probably be a non-event. The smart money is in bitcoin right now. If Jihan wants to allocate his hash powers towards ABC and what not to kill CSW's new coin or at least show people that CSW is not the king of bitcoin cash forks or whatever than he will have to lose some money.

His hash power will be used towards some needless useless coin whereas it could make money in bitcoin. So as usual they will have to keep on hashing at bitcoin to make money, they can use that money to beat SV coin with volumes higher. That way he will both make money and still keep SV at bay.

If he is stupid enough to change his hashing power from bitcoin to his own coin than he will be very upset about the amount of money he is losing and in business making money is the only important thing.

[cellard]

I just realized Poloniex has set up BTCABC and BTCSV tickers:

https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_bchabc

https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_bchsv

We can now watch the show unfold. So far BCHABC is winning.

BCHABC: 0.05107443
BCHSV: 0.02050000


The actual fireworks should start a couple hours from now. Can't wait to find out what happens.

[STT]

For anyone who hasn't looked. It's worthwhile following his twitter. He seems a little psychotic lately and has a huge vendetta with bitcoin. He's claiming responsibility for the latest crash and says he'll push bitcoin down to $1000 or less. If he keeps this up he's going to have a lot of enemies and with the amount of people he's claiming to have screwed out of a lot of money. He should be keeping himself hidden for some time.

I know people might not like this exactly but one person selling into the market even if it does drop the prices is not an overall negative.   His threat of pushing the price anywhere shouldnt really be that important when its just a temporary change in supply, I dont know how other big players might trade this but often a spike in shorts or whatever is used to flip a quick profit as they can buy up that BTC until shorts close out at the higher price.  This guy might have alot of BTC compared to many people but he isnt bigger then the overall market.

The only way its going to matter is if BTC was already due to revise this price area and he triggered that, in that case it was going to happen anyway.  I also predict the price might resolve upwards, checking the 6100 area before markets decide enmass on a direction up or down.    Maybe the 15th is the peak of uncertainty in price, I'm not clear on the timetable for this being resolved exactly but the market often surprises

[cellard]

ABC has far more economic support, and I suspect that enough hashrate will be moved to BCH-ABC at the critical time. It's most likely IMO that this will be resolved in ABC's favor within 48 hours.

I will be a bit surprised if SV wins, though it's not impossible. If SV wins, I suppose it'll be only after at least some weeks of war. This'd be the most funny and damaging for BCH, though I find CSW too distasteful to exactly hope for a SV win. It'd be especially funny if one side wins due to economic support despite losing on hashrate, which is possible.

I don't see much impact to BTC of losing 5-10% hashrate in this scuffle, especially since the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment is conveniently going to happen in ~1.5 days. I also don't see much fundamental reason for the BCH outcome to affect BTC's price, though who knows short-term: IMO the recent BTC crash was set off by Jihan trying to make some point (made possible due to low exchange depths/volumes).

It seems CSW is threatening with class action lawsuits as well as mining empty blocks to stop BCHABC supporters (including traders trying to exchange BCHSV for BCHABC, exchanges that support it and whatnot) and he claims Jihan Wu allocating hashrate from BTC to BCHABC is breaking a contract and will have legal consequences. Of course, this sounds like nonsense to me. Which jurisdictions have laws forcing miners to mine a particular coin, or I am missing something here?

Another interesting statistic is the amount of nodes supporting SV:



This will be a good experiment to see hashrate vs economic support. It all comes down to if CSW can afford mining an undervalued coin while mining empty blocks to clutter up ABC and cause reorg.

[Wind_FURY]

But what did Craig Wright really expect from this "hash war"? That he could win it? Declaring a hash war against Bitmain is like the most moronic thing he can do.

This is drama to attract attention, and liquidity for their exit scam.

[clrpod]

For anyone who hasn't looked. It's worthwhile following his twitter. He seems a little psychotic lately and has a huge vendetta with bitcoin. He's claiming responsibility for the latest crash and says he'll push bitcoin down to $1000 or less. If he keeps this up he's going to have a lot of enemies and with the amount of people he's claiming to have screwed out of a lot of money. He should be keeping himself hidden for some time.

I know people might not like this exactly but one person selling into the market even if it does drop the prices is not an overall negative.   His threat of pushing the price anywhere shouldnt really be that important when its just a temporary change in supply, I dont know how other big players might trade this but often a spike in shorts or whatever is used to flip a quick profit as they can buy up that BTC until shorts close out at the higher price.  This guy might have alot of BTC compared to many people but he isnt bigger then the overall market.

The only way its going to matter is if BTC was already due to revise this price area and he triggered that, in that case it was going to happen anyway.  I also predict the price might resolve upwards, checking the 6100 area before markets decide enmass on a direction up or down.    Maybe the 15th is the peak of uncertainty in price, I'm not clear on the timetable for this being resolved exactly but the market often surprises

I actually agree. I don't believe that he is behind the crash, I think it's just him trying to get some limelight as always. But if he is, or whoever is, if they're going to sell it might as well be sooner rather than later, that way the market is going to recover sooner. I do think the hash war has some time to run, unless CSW is clueless, he's claiming it will be over weeks, months or even years.

[cellard]

Anyone else gets an error here claiming that the site is not safe to visit?

https://www.cash.coin.dance/blocks

I reckon this is where people were getting screenshots like this:



And to update this... BSV is losing hashrate against ABC:




Craig Wright is back on twitter rambling about patents and how this is a marathon not a spring. ABC devs also doing shady things:

https://twitter.com/bsmith12251960/status/1063277772792102912

Battle of the shitcoins indeed.

[Last of the V8s]

@cellard look at the web addy you posted when you hover over it. seems to be a colon or something not a dot....?

but the screenshot is about right, they're 'behind'

[cellard]

@cellard look at the web addy you posted when you hover over it. seems to be a colon or something not a dot....?

but the screenshot is about right, they're 'behind'

The url was correct, but it seems that if you add "www" you get the "Your connection is not secure The owner of www.cash.coin.dance has configured their website improperly." message. Without www it should be working now:

https://cash.coin.dance/

And wow they are really behind now. And if im following correctly, ABC team did something to avoid reorg by addition of a very controversial checkpoint. So looks like we have 2 Bcashes now

[Last of the V8s]

hover your mouse over the link you put, here:

https://www.cash.coin.dance/blocks

there's a colon there between 'coin' and 'dance'. should be a full stop!

[jbreher]

Roger Ver and the Bitcoin Cash community said that, nodes do not matter, and the miners decide. Well the miners have decided. Bitcoin SV will be the real Bitcoin Cash! Hahahaha.

What now? Will they say that non-mining nodes matter, and that users should decide? Or that Bitcoin SV is an attack?

No. ABC redirected 4Ehash from BTC mining to Bitcoin Cash ABC mining in order to show mining strength. Thereby demonstrating the fact that non-mining, fully-validating clients (often mistakenly called 'full nodes') are irrelevant against the non-sybillable mining power.

[TomCrypto]

It's so fun to watch this Hash war!

Keep on burning your cash and make me laugh!!!

( source )

[pugman]

Craig Wright is back with his Bitcoin SV fork, and is showing strenght thus far with the amount of hashrate that is going to support the Bitcoin SV fork.

Apparently Roger Ver and Jihan Wu aren't supporting it, hence why the "hash wars" terms. With Jihan's empire against Craig Wright's 70% current hashrate it's going to be interesting.

The reason I ask about BTC price is because if Jihan wants to ensure CSW doesn't win, he may be forced to allocate BTC hashrate into this developing clusterfuck in BCash.

Will this be a non event or speculators will try to get some BTC out of it from noobs that fall into it?

Why is this fork thingy happening again?

I know nothing of what has been going on with the crypto market scenario for the past two months at least, so someone PLEASE explain, cause the internet is well ...being the internet. 

I really need to catch up with things around here. And also fuck Craig Wright and Roger Ver and Jihan Wu(whoever the hell he is).

[Quickseller]

An assumption made by crypto holders is that miners will act in their own self interest and not risk the value of their equipment to try to attack the Blockchain of a coin they are mining, especially for a major (alt🧺) coin.

CW is suggesting this might not be a valid assumption. If BCH is effectively destroyed then I suspect there will be much less confidence in crypto including bitcoin. If BCH survives without a Blockchain related attack, additional confidence in crypto may be installed.

[tokeweed]

How is this even a hash war when both BAB and BSV will end up continuing on anyway?  I mean we've seen it all.  This is no different to the forks of the past...

And how can we even assure Ver and Wright aren't manipulating everything behind the scenes?

[cellard]

Craig Wright is back with his Bitcoin SV fork, and is showing strenght thus far with the amount of hashrate that is going to support the Bitcoin SV fork.

Apparently Roger Ver and Jihan Wu aren't supporting it, hence why the "hash wars" terms. With Jihan's empire against Craig Wright's 70% current hashrate it's going to be interesting.

The reason I ask about BTC price is because if Jihan wants to ensure CSW doesn't win, he may be forced to allocate BTC hashrate into this developing clusterfuck in BCash.

Will this be a non event or speculators will try to get some BTC out of it from noobs that fall into it?

Why is this fork thingy happening again?

I know nothing of what has been going on with the crypto market scenario for the past two months at least, so someone PLEASE explain, cause the internet is well ...being the internet.  

I really need to catch up with things around here. And also fuck Craig Wright and Roger Ver and Jihan Wu(whoever the hell he is).

It began with a split on CSW and Calvin Ayre's roadmap conflicting with the plans Roger Ver and Jihan Wu had for BCash. As a result, we are watching an ego-trip of 2 wealthy sides that will end up bankrupt or lossing a ton of actual bitcoins in the process, which is good for Bitcoin.

Roger Ver and the Bitcoin Cash community said that, nodes do not matter, and the miners decide. Well the miners have decided. Bitcoin SV will be the real Bitcoin Cash! Hahahaha.

What now? Will they say that non-mining nodes matter, and that users should decide? Or that Bitcoin SV is an attack?

No. ABC redirected 4Ehash from BTC mining to Bitcoin Cash ABC mining in order to show mining strength. Thereby demonstrating the fact that non-mining, fully-validating clients (often mistakenly called 'full nodes') are irrelevant against the non-sybillable mining power.

Which broke some contracts as they used cloud mining of people into their shitcoin. There's a lot of people complaining about how they saw their hashrate mining BCHABC when they bought BTC hashrate.

This will not end well on both sides.