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Author Topic: Analysis - Bitcointalk Accounts – Date of Register vs Last Active per Rank  (Read 285 times)
DdmrDdmr
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November 15, 2018, 12:44:35 PM
Merited by Foxpup (12), bones261 (1), stompix (1), TomCrypto (1)
 #1

1. Introduction.

Using @Piggy’s provided profile information again, there are a few more interesting thing that can be derived. One of them is to cross the Date of Register, to the Date Last Active and current rank. This gives us an idea of how many dropouts we have by rank and year, as well knowledge on which year the current rank-holding members were originated in.

For simplicity, I’ve gone ahead with tabular format, and gone with the year of registration and last activity (performing the exercise at a monthly level shows too much information to be displayed here). Tables seem more fitting than charts for this sort of information.


2. Overall Date of Register vs Last Active



Interpretation:

- For example, in 2012 (read at row level) ->  27.846 accounts were registered. Out of those, 10.897 (39,13%) dropped out in 2012, 2.994 (10,75%) in 2013, 1.194 (4,29%) in 2014, 700 (2,51%) in 2015, 400 (1,44%) in 2016, 2.832 (10,17%) in 2017, and only 8.829 (31,71%) of the account have logged-in during 2018 so far.

- Now if we focus specifically on the 2018 column, we see that out of the accounts created during 2009, 54,55% logged-in during 2018, only 20,66% of those created in 2010 did so, 46,88% of those created in 2011, 31,71% of those in 2012, 15,93% of those created in 2013, 15,95% of those in 2014, only 4,80% of those created in 2015, 9,21% in 2016 and 33,52% of those created in 2017.

- 2015 and 2016 follow a weird pattern, since the large majority of the created accounts were only active during the year of creation (in 2015 this happened with 89,50% of the created accounts, and 84,95% in 2016). These values are much higher than other years by comparison.
The hacking that took place in 2015 may certainly have had to do with it, scaring people off, but accounts created before didn’t dropout in masses during 2015/2016.

- Accounts created in 2011 are, on the other hand, the longest survivors, with 46,88% of the accounts having logged-in during 2018 (2009 created accounts have a larger ratio (54,55%), but are a small number).


For the sake of simplicity, I’ll only provide the table to the absolute values and not the percentages in the following sections. Also bear in mind that rank shown is current rank, which evolves over time, and needs time to move along for those accounts created more recently.


3. Legendary Date of Register vs Last Active


Crossing the data shown in the above section, and limiting it to what are current Legendries, the following things stand-out:

- The year of registration of the largest amount of current Legendries was 2013 (795 Legendries), followed by 2014 (628 Legendries).
- Most Legendries are still active in 2018 (1.996 out of 2.215).
- 2017 is the year with most Legendary dropouts: 146
- The most recent current Legendary created account was in 2015.


4. Hero Member Date of Register vs Last Active


Things stand-out:

- The year of registration of the largest amount of current Hero Members was 2013 (1.189 Heroes), followed by 2014 (985 Heroes).
- Most Heroes are still active in 2018 (3.169 out of 4.097 -> 77,84%).
- 2017 is the year with most Heroes dropouts: 482.
- The most recent current Hero created account was in 2017, but only 4 (compared to 587 the previous year, although not all have technically had enough time to rank-up).


5. Sr. Member Date of Register vs Last Active

 
Things stand-out:

- The year of registration of the largest amount of current Sr. Members was 2014 (2.108 Sr. Members), followed by 2013 (2.050 Sr. Members) and 2016 (1.717 Sr. Members).
- Most Sr. Members are still active in 2018 (6.596 out of 9.007 -> 73,23%).
- 2017 is the year with most Sr. Member dropouts: 1.237.
- The effect of the Merit System is starting to be noticed here: Only 5 2018 created accounts have reached Sr. Member rank, for 1.206 during 2017. 


6. Full Member Date of Register vs Last Active

 
Things stand-out:

- The year of registration of the largest amount of current Full Members was 2017 (7.426 Full Members), followed by 2014 (3.381 Full Members) and 2016 (1.823 Full Members).
- Most Full Members are still active in 2018 (12.997 out of 18.158 -> 71,59%).
- 2017 is the year with most Full Member dropouts: 2.361.
- The effect of the Merit System is noticeable here: Only 27 2018 created accounts have reached Full Member (not all have had time yet though, but a fair share), for 7.426 accounts created in 2017. 


7. Member Date of Register vs Last Active


Things stand-out:

- The year of registration of the largest amount of current Members was 2017 (12.631 Members), followed by 2014 (4.861 Members) and 2013 (3.956 Members).
- Most Members are still active in 2018 (19.587 out of 28.299 -> 69,21%).
- 2017 is the year with most Member dropouts: 3.199, followed by 2014 (2.559).
- The effect of the Merit System is very noticeable here: 1.289  2018 created accounts have reached Member (most have had time), for 12.631 created during 2017. 


8. Jr. Member Date of Register vs Last Active


Things stand-out:

- The year of registration of the largest amount of current Jr. Members is 2018 (4.499 Jr. Members), followed by 2017 (3.391 Jr. Members).
- Most Jr. Members are active in 2018 as expected (8.465 out of 8.595 -> 98,49%).
- The 130 dropouts are really related to accounts that have been merited retrospectively, and had the right activity.


9. Newbie Date of Register vs Last Active


Things stand-out:

- Newbie Account Registration is massive in 2018 (205.985 active in 2018), with 2017 not falling short (161.086, out of which 97.366 are still active in 2018 – 60,44%).
- 91.779 Newbie accounts dropped-out during 2017.
- 140.823 Newbie accounts created before 2018 are still active, surprisingly, some dating back to the early years of the forum like madhatter, The Doctor and xuO4k04c6Ng.


10. Brand New Date of Register vs Last Active


Things stand-out:

- Brand New Account Registration is massive in 2018 (680.255 active in 2018), with 2017 a third off (434.487, out of which only 86.291 are still active in 2018 – 19,86%).
- 376.707 Brand New accounts dropped-out during 2017.
- 135.418 Brand New  accounts created before 2018 are still active, surprisingly, many dating back to 2011.
- (can’t tell how many are bot accounts, but I have detected multiple burst of accounts in a short period of time, likely bots).

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iasenko
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November 15, 2018, 02:35:27 PM
 #2

I don't know how this happened is it just a coincidence but you literally read my mind for the last few days.
I was wondering based on given registration date or range, how many have actually ranked up accordingly.
So it is almost what I was thinking about.


DdmrDdmr
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November 15, 2018, 06:09:53 PM
 #3

I don't know how this happened is it just a coincidence but you literally read my mind for the last few days.
I was wondering based on given registration date or range, how many have actually ranked up accordingly.
So it is almost what I was thinking about.
Yes, if you select a given year, and look at the data in the rows for that year for each rank, the Grant Total on the right will give you how many people from that year have currently got a given rank. The columns will on the other hand tell us additionally if they are still around (active during 2018), or have dropped out along the way.

It still beats me how so many Brand New accounts are created and just left there. I’d say that many are originated in Bot attempts to create automated farms, where by:

-   The first step is creating a bunch of bot accounts (and quite a few have managed to create those in a short interval by the hundreds or thousands by what I see).

-   Then they need to start adding post to these accounts. This step is likely more difficult, plus some get caught and banned.

-   Surviving accounts likely tried to spam their way through, after the puppet master signed them up individually for a signature campaign. The 1 merit requirement probably is a wall to automation of accounts posting for crypyto-revenue though.

Note: Derren Brown gave me a call to tell me what was on your mind …

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November 15, 2018, 06:39:55 PM
 #4

I'm surprised how the Jr. Members are the ones that has the highest percentage of active members here in the community, I really thought that the 1 merit requirement had discouraged a lot of jr. members here in the forum but it is not the case as they had found a way to earn that 1 even the first day of change in the merit system. This just show that a lot of members have stayed in the forum even if the price of Bitcoin went down, this members might be active now because they have found a way to earn in the forum.

Another thing that caught up with my mind is that these jr. members are just strings of accounts by individuals and that may be is the reason why their active rate is very high as they are earning from their multiple accounts.

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DdmrDdmr
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November 15, 2018, 06:56:18 PM
Merited by LoyceV (1)
 #5

<…>
The Jr. Member percentage of 2018 might be a bit misleading. Bear in mind that Jr. Members are all required by definition now to have at least 1 merit. That means that all the Jr. Members are “native” Merit  System profiles: In order to become Jr. Members they needed by definition to be active and quality for that 1 merit. So essentially, all Jr. Members needed to be active in 2018 by definition (many were demoted to Newbies as we know).

On aggregate though, there are only 8.465 active during 2018 active Jr. Members. Compare that to the batch of potential accounts that aspire to become Jr. Member: 346.808 active 2018 Newbies …

Kavelj22
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November 16, 2018, 09:30:57 AM
 #6

Another thing that caught up with my mind is that these jr. members are just strings of accounts by individuals and that may be is the reason why their active rate is very high as they are earning from their multiple accounts.
What to earn from multiple accounts? Juniors are in the lowest rate for every signature campaign. If i have one high-ranked accounts with 3 Junior accounts, i would definetly spend the full time with the ranked one as earnings can be much more higher than the three juniors combined. I still can't understand why Juniors have the most active rate even with the new merit requirement. 
DdmrDdmr
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November 16, 2018, 10:04:11 AM
 #7

<…> I still can't understand why Juniors have the most active rate even with the new merit requirement. 
They don’t really. Read my above post in answer to @Theb.

Activity on this thread is considered as "having logged in" during a certain year (therefore with an active account in terms of a boolean active/inactive account characteristic), but does not evaluate for example the number of posts they made in a certain period of time, since that information is not available as such with a single database snapshot. If @piggy plans on releasing new snapshots in a couple of weeks (with a view of let’s say a month away from current snapshot), then I can work on that angle.

Account farmers with multiple accounts on diverse campaigns will "work" with as many accounts as they can. Some do it without breaking the rules, whilst others go for the same campaign with multiple accounts. Obviously old-time account farmers will have better dividends, since they likely managed to rank-up multiple accounts by simply posting. New account farmers have the merit barrier which will limit their farmed accounts to the lower ranks at best in general.

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