[2018-11-15] Bitcoin’s Breakdown Will Take ‘Weeks, If Not Months’ to Rebound

[cybersofts]

Bitcoin’s Breakdown Will Take ‘Weeks, If Not Months’ to Rebound, Says Fundstrat Analyst



lt will take “weeks, if not months” to repair the “technical damage” caused by the recent collapse of Bitcoin (BTC), according to a Fundstrat Global Advisors analyst, Bloomberg reports today, Nov. 15.

In a note to clients yesterday, cited by Bloomberg, Fundstrat’s Rob Sluymer predicted that Bitcoin’s collapse yesterday has pushed crypto markets into a “deeply oversold” area, while “longer-term technical indicators aren’t so favorable.”

Sluymer concluded that Bitcoin will be able to support a “multi-month rally,” but only after the “significant” damage done this week has been overcome:

    “This week’s breakdown produced significant technical damage that will likely take weeks, if not months, to repair to create a durable enough price ‘structure’ to support a multi-month rally.”

Yesterday, the largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin dipped below the $5,600 price point for the first time since October 2017, breaking longstanding recent support around $6,000 and hitting multi-month records of volatility.

A trader at eWarrant Japan Securities K.K. in Tokyo, Soichiro Tsutsumi, told Bloomberg today that the loss of $6,000 support looks like a “dangerous sign” for industry players, especially the ones with “business models reliant on a client pool.”

The recent crypto market slump has also reportedly caused a decline in the shares of crypto-connected companies, including Japanese SBI Holdings and Monex Group. Both Monex Group, owner of crypto exchange Coincheck, and SBI Holdings suffered a slump of more than 2 percent to close at two-week lows in Tokyo, Bloomberg reported.


Impact of Bitcoin’s slump on Asia Crypto Stocks. Source: Bloomberg

Fundstrat’s analysts has subsequently commented that the year-end market trend is “stressed, but not broken,” according to a tweet of CNBC journalist Carl Quintanilla. According to Quintanilla, Fundstrat claimed that they expect the “sectors hit the hardest to lead into YE,” which will lead to growth of stocks.

Earlier in summer, Fundstrat’s head of research Tom Lee reiterated his prediction that Bitcoin will trade between $22,000 to $25,000 by the year’s end. Most recently, Lee expressed content with the recent stability of Bitcoin, claiming that he expected its volatility to be much higher.

In early November, Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz claimed that Bitcoin has to “take out $6,800” in order to hit $8,800-9,000 by the end of the year. He also predicted that the biggest coin could hit “$20,000 or more” in 2019.


Ref: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoins-breakdown-will-take-weeks-if-not-months-to-rebound-says-fundstrat-analyst

[Kakmakr]

I think we might see a small bump in the price when traders start buying back the bitcoins that they sold prior to the Bitcoin Cash fork <to get free fork coins> and also when they sold their free coins to buy some Bitcoin <BTC> again.

Unfortunately it is easier for the price to drop, than it is to recover after that drop and this is not unique to Bitcoin. We might also have some newbie traders that panicked too quickly and sold some coins at a loss and as a consequence they would be hesitant to jump back in. 

This is why people should ignore short-term volatility. 

[buwaytress]

Agree that we're in deeply oversold territory anyway, and it should recover some ground over the next few weeks of winter. 6k the natural target. But I'm actually not sure this is over yet. Panic set in quite quickly, as can be seen by doubling of volumes and increasing selloffs. People are as ever, reacting painfully predictably.

I think we might see a small bump in the price when traders start buying back the bitcoins that they sold prior to the Bitcoin Cash fork <to get free fork coins> and also when they sold their free coins to buy some Bitcoin <BTC> again.

Unfortunately it is easier for the price to drop, than it is to recover after that drop and this is not unique to Bitcoin. We might also have some newbie traders that panicked too quickly and sold some coins at a loss and as a consequence they would be hesitant to jump back in. 

This is why people should ignore short-term volatility. 

Yeah, this is the minor recovery I'll expect too, which anyway should follow sudden, steep declines. Unlikely to resume stability at the previous range, should either be much lower or much higher come 2019. As you said, neither scenario would be unfamiliar with Bitcoin.

[1Referee]

Agree that we're in deeply oversold territory anyway, and it should recover some ground over the next few weeks of winter. 6k the natural target. But I'm actually not sure this is over yet. Panic set in quite quickly, as can be seen by doubling of volumes and increasing selloffs.

Technically speaking, the price may look like it's in oversold territory, but it's really not.

We're 13 hours away from what looks like a 7% decline in difficulty due to the scumbags pointing their miners to protect their shitty Bitmain coin. If the price remained over $6000 miners would have had all the incentive they needed to dump on the market, which they refrained from doing for quite a long period of time. $5000-$5500 is likely the new $6000-$6500 range.

People kept complaining $6000 is low bla bla, and look what they got now, even lower prices. Be happy for once with what the market offers you.

[Slow death]

This:

Bitcoin’s Breakdown Will Take ‘Weeks, If Not Months’ to Rebound, Says Fundstrat Analyst

This is becoming a big joke, these guys from Fundstrat they always make price forecasts and are always very optimistic forecasts, but as the price has dropped, they now make pessimistic forecasts.

but:

Earlier in summer, Fundstrat’s head of research Tom Lee reiterated his prediction that Bitcoin will trade between $22,000 to $25,000 by the year’s end. Most recently, Lee expressed content with the recent stability of Bitcoin, claiming that he expected its volatility to be much higher.

we are already very close to the end of the year and there is no chance of seeing prices above $8000 and he is talking about $25000

In early November, Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz claimed that Bitcoin has to “take out $6,800” in order to hit $8,800-9,000 by the end of the year. He also predicted that the biggest coin could hit “$20,000 or more” in 2019.

As I said: we are almost towards the end of the year and I see no chance of seeing prices of more than $8000

[BitHodler]

Fork drama is a reality check for people. Miners are easy to convince to mine something else if you pay more (referring to SV camp), your hashrate isn't actually yours if you use Roger's or Bitmain's pools.

I remember reading an article a couple of months ago where something was proposed to stop the centralization around pools to give individual miners more control over what they mine and so on. Sounds like we need it now.

Let the price sink further, it seems that this industry doesn't even deserve to be where it stands right now. I wasn't surprised that the price dipped under the $6000 mark and won't be surprised if it dips under $5000.

[bbc.reporter]

Fundstrat. The same global company of financial advisors that has Tom Lee. The Tom Lee who predicted and expressed with all his heart that bitcoin will be on $20k - $25k by December. Now, again they are telling us what they predict hehehe.

I reckon a prediction market like Augur might be a more accurate tool than those analysts.

[hatshepsut93]

#5,500 as the new floor seems very possible to me, we're still in a bear market and there's no sign that the trend will change anytime soon. Just because $6,000 was defended many times, it doesn't mean that the price will recover to that level again quickly. Bitcoin is too unpredictable to make short-term predictions with certainty, this crash was very surprising, especially since it's not based on any news or rumors.

[CoinClarity]

We're 13 hours away from what looks like a 7% decline in difficulty due to the scumbags pointing their miners to protect their shitty Bitmain coin. If the price remained over $6000 miners would have had all the incentive they needed to dump on the market, which they refrained from doing for quite a long period of time. $5000-$5500 is likely the new $6000-$6500 range.

Wow, you called it. Current price: $5216, and falling.

Fundstrat. The same global company of financial advisors that has Tom Lee. The Tom Lee who predicted and expressed with all his heart that bitcoin will be on $20k - $25k by December. Now, again they are telling us what they predict hehehe.

I reckon a prediction market like Augur might be a more accurate tool than those analysts.

Tom Lee recently revised his end of year price target to $15,000, which is still almost a 3x gain from where we currently are. Regardless, he was wrong at $25,000, and he'll be wrong on December 31st. Amazing that these people are still given a voice.

[Kemarit]

Fork drama is a reality check for people. Miners are easy to convince to mine something else if you pay more (referring to SV camp), your hashrate isn't actually yours if you use Roger's or Bitmain's pools.

I remember reading an article a couple of months ago where something was proposed to stop the centralization around pools to give individual miners more control over what they mine and so on. Sounds like we need it now.

Let the price sink further, it seems that this industry doesn't even deserve to be where it stands right now. I wasn't surprised that the price dipped under the $6000 mark and won't be surprised if it dips under $5000.

Yes, I with you on this one, and let's see how the market or even the speculators would react to this and see where they stand. Currently, we have dip under $5000 and there's no stopping so a lot of investors are very nervous at this point, its going to be exciting how psychological prepared they are in terms of the sudden crash. Fundstrat and even Tom Lee, will have to go back to their drawing board again, and re-calibrate their forecast.

@CoinClarity - let Tom Lee talks, the more he talks and revising his predictions, the more he losses his credibility (that is if people still believes what he says).

[BitHodler]

Bitstamp marked $4237 which means that the price lost $2000 in a single week. It's going to be interesting to see if this was THE dump to shake out the get rich quick rookies who kept firmly hodling this year.

I expected the price to bounce back, which I have seen is what a lot people were thinking, but TA once again proves to be worthless. There isn't a way to factor in panic, and there is plenty of it right now.

Is anyone here feeling uncomfortable already?

[1Referee]

Is anyone here feeling uncomfortable already?

Not really. It's all a learning experience, even for me. I thought the market would hold a bit stronger due to the increased adoption and better fundamentals, but it seems that these aspects didn't add any sort of strength to this market. Definitely something to keep in mind when we are correcting after the next bull run.

The positive side is that money is much more likely to enter the market again due to these lower levels, which probably wouldn't happen if it kept hovering around $6000 for a couple of more months. This could potentially boost the demand for Bakkt, because it's easier to double from $4000 to $8000 than from $6000 to $12,000, especially during a bear market.

[RinkaDink]

i dont get the fundamentals of why the drop is so big

[Xavofat]

Tom Lee changes his predictions every five minutes.  Cointelegraph might as well ask the nearest person on the street to yell a random number between $1,000 and $1,000,000 and then publish an article about it, because it would probably be more accurate than his predictions repeatedly prove to be.

The fact that Fundstrat's prediction is slightly less stupidly bullish doesn't mean that they've suddenly become mature enough to be considered an authority on the topic.

[Thekool1s]

i dont get the fundamentals of why the drop is so big

Well, it's quite simple. Bitcoin was in its bubble phase after it went from $3000 to $20000. People oversold the Japan and South Korea adoption. Whales were already in well before bitcoin hit $4000 mark. Then the market did its trick. Dummies kept pushing the price up while whales were hodling. Whales are still making a profit iyam. No whale in his right mind would have jumped in at $4500 or $5000. This correction is a mere result of whales manipulating the dummies. Also, This is nowhere near the true bottom. We will see $2000s again so keep your wallets prepared as this will be the last opportunity to get in at 2000s the next stop will be at $110,000

Tom Lee changes his predictions every five minutes.

I mean how dumb you have to be to listen to his predictions. The Dude's a permabull. He will only sweet talk about his love. Just like i have said before i will say it again. Crypto Journalism is SHIT.

[khabgahyar]

very good

[bkbirge]

Crypto Journalism is SHIT.

QFT