2014 vs 2018

[Oguzksk]

Relax!

in 2013 bitcoin was $1045 and in January 2015 bitcoin has seen $207!

We are seeing the same problem right now. Bitcoin has fallen 80 percent! just 3 years ago.

Bitcoin will rise again. It takes time to see another bull run.

Bitcoin might see $4000 and it is totally normal.

If you compare 2013 and 2017, the chart is almost the same.

[mk4]

Not only that, but it took how long for bitcoin to reach another all time high at that time from the $1000+ peak? A few years. The peak was at December 2013, and the new all time high took place at
May 2017 (look at chart below). It took more than 3 years for bitcoin to reach another all time high. Holding bitcoin is probably not for you if patience is an issue. Bitcoin is a huge ass waiting game.

A graph showing December 2013 to May 2017 BTC prices:
*with a crappy yellow line drawing attempting to show the part where bitcoin had the next ATH*



source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

[pixelvault]

Not only that, but it took how long for bitcoin to reach another all time high at that time from the $1000+ peak? A few years. The peak was at December 2013, and the new all time high took place at
May 2017 (look at chart below). It took more than 3 years for bitcoin to reach another all time high. Holding bitcoin is probably not for you if patience is an issue. Bitcoin is a huge ass waiting game.

A graph showing December 2013 to May 2017 BTC prices:
*with a crappy yellow line drawing attempting to show the part where bitcoin had the next ATH*

https://i.imgur.com/p9qadaD.png

source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

At least its alot faster than traditional stocks if you hold them.

[jointherevolution]

I think that looking at the past is very useful to see that this has happened before. It can calm down people, at least a certain amount. Bitcoin is still dominant. I do not need proof that this is not the end for Bitcoin but I am glad it existes.

[Pursuer]

when you look at history and compare the current market with that you should also consider the differences between the two times. for example the size of the 2014 market is nowhere near the size of the market in 2018. and that growth means things such as bear market and accumulation,... basically the transition phases don't have to take as long. not to mention that there were other reasons accompanying the downtime of 2014 which do not exist today.

[fasdorcas]

The similarities have been talked for a long time and honestly there are too many similar stuff going on but I still think it is not as close to it as you think.

Yes, there was a huge drop in the price and all that but before the 2014 drop there was mt.gox which was basically the biggest exchange at the time almost like only good exchange and there was talk about how they were hacked and all that going around but as soon as it was finalized that no one would get their money back people started to realize all their money was gone and that made a huge drop in volume and interest towards bitcoin, these were the people who had hundreds of bitcoin because they got in really early and lost all their money, a total of 200 thousand bitcoins and more was lost during that time. Nothing even close to that happened this year.

[BitHodler]

When history repeats itself, people say: I told you so!

When history doesn't repeat, people say: I told you this time it's different!

Who's right and who's wrong when everyone can simply adjust his prediction based on the changed market sentiment? I like Tim Draper because he sticks to his prediction, regardless of the sentiment.

He knows that there is no point looking at what happens in the coming months, because it's way more likely to be wrong, and looking at all the perma bulls we have seen pop up, they have been wrong time on time again.

Tim Draper knows how things work, and he knows what it is to see the price tank to the bottom while hodling tons of coins. He is one of us, not one of those who only talk like an expert but not own any coins themselves.

[WinslowIII]

When history repeats itself, people say: I told you so!

When history doesn't repeat, people say: I told you this time it's different!

Who's right and who's wrong when everyone can simply adjust his prediction based on the changed market sentiment? I like Tim Draper because he sticks to his prediction, regardless of the sentiment.

He knows that there is no point looking at what happens in the coming months, because it's way more likely to be wrong, and looking at all the perma bulls we have seen pop up, they have been wrong time on time again.

Tim Draper knows how things work, and he knows what it is to see the price tank to the bottom while hodling tons of coins. He is one of us, not one of those who only talk like an expert but not own any coins themselves.

Draper would still be a billionaire if bitcoin went to zero, he is not one of "us" for that reason.
Bitcoin needs scaling solutions such as lightning network or next pump won't happen is my prediction. Bitcoin slow and expensive trxs were what sent bitcoin falling on it's head. The way bitcoin currenly scales the only valid use case is storage of wealth, which looks like it has failed miserably over the last 11 months.

[exstasie]

I'm glad to see sentiment finally changing around here. Even a month or two ago, most people were in denial that we could see a bear market like 2014. This is at least a sign we could be nearing the end of the distribution phase.

After that comes the long, boring sideways.

The way bitcoin currenly scales the only valid use case is storage of wealth, which looks like it has failed miserably over the last 11 months.

If you take an 11-month snapshot of price after the end of a bubble, that's always going to be the case.

[stomachgrowls]

I've already seen lots of charts anywhere telling on past histories that do happen on bitcoins price.I agree that we are still on a good range
but people cant really easily accept on declining price, they love to see continuous growth due on being too optimistic with bitcoin.

At least its alot faster than traditional stocks if you hold them.

Stocks would be an another story and most people do knows that.

[WinslowIII]

I'm glad to see sentiment finally changing around here. Even a month or two ago, most people were in denial that we could see a bear market like 2014. This is at least a sign we could be nearing the end of the distribution phase.

After that comes the long, boring sideways.

The way bitcoin currenly scales the only valid use case is storage of wealth, which looks like it has failed miserably over the last 11 months.

If you take an 11-month snapshot of price after the end of a bubble, that's always going to be the case.

So we are stuck a bit with use cases right now. It doesn't scale for shit so forget using it as a currency for now, and for almost a year it has shown to be a horrific storage of value. What we need is for the scaling problem to be solved, if things don't change I think there's a realistic chance of total collapse. I expect this will occur if the next halving event doesn't result in a significant pump within a reasonable time frame and scaling issues remain unsolved. As Satoshi famously said, bitcoin will either be worth a LOT in the future or nothing. I think within the next 4 years we will have our answer to this question.

[Dilerium90]

Many of us simply cannot accept the idea that we will have to wait for years for a new pump. But in fact, we will not see a rapid rise, until a huge number of people are interested in the cryptocurrency market.

[exstasie]

I'm glad to see sentiment finally changing around here. Even a month or two ago, most people were in denial that we could see a bear market like 2014. This is at least a sign we could be nearing the end of the distribution phase.

After that comes the long, boring sideways.

The way bitcoin currenly scales the only valid use case is storage of wealth, which looks like it has failed miserably over the last 11 months.

If you take an 11-month snapshot of price after the end of a bubble, that's always going to be the case.

So we are stuck a bit with use cases right now. It doesn't scale for shit so forget using it as a currency for now, and for almost a year it has shown to be a horrific storage of value. What we need is for the scaling problem to be solved, if things don't change I think there's a realistic chance of total collapse. I expect this will occur if the next halving event doesn't result in a significant pump within a reasonable time frame and scaling issues remain unsolved. As Satoshi famously said, bitcoin will either be worth a LOT in the future or nothing. I think within the next 4 years we will have our answer to this question.

People were saying the same thing as you in 2016, long before the last bubble took off. Let's table the discussion of future optimizations, block size increases, LN, sidechains, etc for a moment. What makes you think scalability is so bearish for price?

Scalability is the weakness of anything decentralized. But users are obviously willing to pay high fees, as evidenced last year.

[WinslowIII]

I'm glad to see sentiment finally changing around here. Even a month or two ago, most people were in denial that we could see a bear market like 2014. This is at least a sign we could be nearing the end of the distribution phase.

After that comes the long, boring sideways.

The way bitcoin currenly scales the only valid use case is storage of wealth, which looks like it has failed miserably over the last 11 months.

If you take an 11-month snapshot of price after the end of a bubble, that's always going to be the case.

So we are stuck a bit with use cases right now. It doesn't scale for shit so forget using it as a currency for now, and for almost a year it has shown to be a horrific storage of value. What we need is for the scaling problem to be solved, if things don't change I think there's a realistic chance of total collapse. I expect this will occur if the next halving event doesn't result in a significant pump within a reasonable time frame and scaling issues remain unsolved. As Satoshi famously said, bitcoin will either be worth a LOT in the future or nothing. I think within the next 4 years we will have our answer to this question.

People were saying the same thing as you in 2016, long before the last bubble took off. Let's table the discussion of future optimizations, block size increases, LN, sidechains, etc for a moment. What makes you think scalability is so bearish for price?

Scalability is the weakness of anything decentralized. But users are obviously willing to pay high fees, as evidenced last year.

Because when the price pumps up the trading volumes and transactions per second pump up. When this reaches a point where trxs take hours or days and they cost $30 or something f'g ridiculous as it did last December, bitcoin does a face plant in the eyes of anyone with a brain and an eye towards future adaption.
That's why.

[pooya87]

Bitcoin might see $4000 and it is totally normal.

well i wouldn't call it "normal"! there is a threshold for everything including corrections and downtrends and after a point it becomes abnormal to go beyond that threshold. and right now we are way past that point so we are already not-normal anymore, any lower would be even less normal.

but generally it is correct that bitcoin always had this kind of roller coaster ride with big ups and downs in long steps and will have it for a long time in the future too.

[The Seller]

Yes I see this year almost similar to 2014, memag sometimes price movements do not always occur like the historical trail that has passed, but it proves that there are still many opportunities for bitcoin to pump prices back.

[exstasie]

People were saying the same thing as you in 2016, long before the last bubble took off. Let's table the discussion of future optimizations, block size increases, LN, sidechains, etc for a moment. What makes you think scalability is so bearish for price?

Scalability is the weakness of anything decentralized. But users are obviously willing to pay high fees, as evidenced last year.

Because when the price pumps up the trading volumes and transactions per second pump up. When this reaches a point where trxs take hours or days and they cost $30 or something f'g ridiculous as it did last December, bitcoin does a face plant in the eyes of anyone with a brain and an eye towards future adaption.
That's why.

In a bubble scenario, the price is going to crash afterwards no matter what. It would be silly to attribute the crash to transaction fees since the crash happens every cycle, regardless of what fees cost. Blow-off tops happen in all markets.

For those primarily using BTC as an investment or trading instrument, high fees aren't a big deal. If they were, price wouldn't have gone 16x past the previous ATH last year while fees were skyrocketing. That's why I don't see it as a major impediment to price.

[Wind_FURY]

Relax!

in 2013 bitcoin was $1045 and in January 2015 bitcoin has seen $207!

We are seeing the same problem right now. Bitcoin has fallen 80 percent! just 3 years ago.

Bitcoin will rise again. It takes time to see another bull run.

Bitcoin might see $4000 and it is totally normal.

If you compare 2013 and 2017, the chart is almost the same.

Plus in November 2017, Bitcoin went on a correctional low of $5400. Then it rallied to an all time high 4 weeks later.

I am not hyping that it will again, but it's an excellent example of how "buying the dip" as a strategy is the best way for most people.

[snipie]

2013 ATH was related to the gox effect in the market and it was totally fake. At the opposite 2017 ATH was related to people buying and the ICO bubbles, so it was in part real. The correction is a normal and healthy situation so people can make a little profit and they will buy again after a long time of stability.

[Biodom]

The "unfortunate" part is that declines occur slowly, but peaks are too fast.
I would have preferred the opposite.

That said, I started to question any fiat value as well as crypto value.
With gigantic debts in the world's economy, what would be the value of assets going forward?

I see a possibility of btc being at 100K as well as 2-3K, but i cannot determine the relevant probabilities vs time.

As such, i decided to treat my retirement savings and btc as consumables, although i don't need to start "consuming" them now.
Sold 2/3 of my fiat investments for cash/short term bonds.

Alas, crypto/btc might be much more of a longer term project that I would have liked.
I don't believe in magic wall street money coming and rescuing the hodlers.
Well street likes to push stuff down before buying in.
They did it to AMZN (which went from $100 to $6 in 2000-2001) before making it the greatest stock market investment (from $6 to $2000).
They could be at it for a couple of years (one already passed).