First, what if we are standing not in front of cryptowinter, but the "crypto ice age" itself. Seriously, the adoption process is freezed. I started to worry then Stripe refused bitcoin few months ago. It was a real sign for me. Not so many companies are ready to accept payments in Bitcoins. And I have no proof (if I'm wrong, please correct me) that this number is growing.
i think merchant adoption just lags behind user adoption. if the merchant adoption hype of 2014 taught me anything, it's that merchant acceptance doesn't actually drive adoption. it's the other way around. merchants will accept BTC when the market forces them to. there's just not enough demand from consumers yet.
Second, because of that, Bitcoin became more a speculative issue, but not a new age world currency. And, as we all understand, global financial-industrial groups are natural enemies of Bitcoin itself. Satoshi started Bitcoin as a global alternative to tjhat system. But now we pray that these people, that organizations will invest in Bitcoin. in fact, we are hoping, that they will buy the whole conception. And we will be ritch. But.. we are estimatimating everything in $(!). We want dollars, not new age currency. If I am the only person, who concerned, that their ultimate goal is to destroy bitcoin?
i see speculation by institutions and long term price increase as inevitable byproducts. institutions creating paper markets is obviously a bad thing---it'll help dilute available market supply, and investors will inevitably be screwed over by trusting custodians to hold their coins.
but it's inevitable too.
Bitcoin has many enemies, but only few friends among the powerful people or institutes now (If no, almost all of them are only pretendingto be friends). So, I'm really worring that we can see a $3000, and then $2500, and even $1000 or less.
What if they will win? Of cource, Bitcoin will not die. But it will be an underground currency. Foe geeks, for criminals. But it will never be as expencive (in fiat) as in Dec 2017, even as in today. In that case, my prediction is $1000-$2000. I really want to be wrong, but..
it's hard to put a number on it. there should be strong support at $3000 though.
