$2000 prospective low for bitcoin says Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes

[vit05]

So far what we had were great dumps. Nothing was slow. 10 minutes of dump, some fights for the price to rise, plus 10 minutes of dump. In the same Bitmex the great players profited a lot in those last 24hrs. But they made little profit in the previous fall. To reach 2k we would have to have a trap. The price would have to rise a bit leaving opportunity for profit. But if it goes up, trust comes back and we'll enter a bull market.

[bbc.reporter]

This is not a prediction,it's a wish.
I believe that Hayes wants really cheap bitcoins,most of the crypto whales want really cheap bitcoins,because the time for a big btc price pump is kinda over(no hype amongst the noobs,no enthusiasm),hence bigger profits from short positions and BTC futures trading.
 

Hehehe it might be. However $2000 is where bitcoin is going if the whales continue to dump. The person who certainly is wishing is Tom Lee and his $15,000 prediction. Wait for him to change and reduce it by another 40% again.

[STT]

Bitmex boss is also a large operator of shorts for BTC at high leverage, higher then available in alot of convential finance routes.   I dont know what effective ratio is for Chicago options when shorting the price but Bitmex offers 100x any deposit there which is equal to dancing on a razorblade.   Very easy to lose on a quick turn there, better be perfectly right to benefit from that.  No doubt some get it right and celebrate but this CEO will profit from shorts like the house always gains from any bet place.  He is talking his own book

[philipma1957]

$3,400 & $1,900 appear to be the next 2 major support levels now that $4,800 has broken. I would expect the bottom to be one of those 2 numbers. I also don’t think it will jump overnight, so slowly accumulating over the next year is probably the smart way to play this.

 I get

3400-3600   as the floor for 6 cent mining

with

 the lowest it will go 1600 to 1900  which will only support 3 cent mining

I could see the drop coming on the diff end as early as  Oct 4 I posted this thread and drew a LTC to BTC parallel with the diff numbers


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5043713.0


Got a lot of grief early on in that thread not so much any more.

I have a strong cash position and will snipe at BTC buys if it continues to drop in price.

[OgNasty]

I think mining is playing a smaller role than believed. We were in the largest asset bubble in modern financial history. The price is simply falling to reality before resuming it’s upward march. $3,400 was the last support level before prices went sky high, and I suspect that will be the base to build from. This isn’t some statistical genius calculation or anything. It’s likely the conclusion a 4-year old with a crayon would come up with if shown a 2 year chart. Don’t underestimate Occam's razor.

[luca1073]

I think mining is playing a smaller role than believed. We were in the largest asset bubble in modern financial history. The price is simply falling to reality before resuming it’s upward march. $3,400 was the last support level before prices went sky high, and I suspect that will be the base to build from. This isn’t some statistical genius calculation or anything. It’s likely the conclusion a 4-year old with a crayon would come up with if shown a 2 year chart. Don’t underestimate Occam's razor.

Bitcoin price is a bubble? No way! I don't see a 100 billion market cap (just before the fall) to be considered a bubble. Bitcoin is many things : medium of exchange, potential store of value (long term), scarce, non inflationary, easy to transport, asset  tool against governments , and also pure speculatve asset. All these things combined have a HUGE potential

[cryptocrusher]

I think mining is playing a smaller role than believed. We were in the largest asset bubble in modern financial history. The price is simply falling to reality before resuming it’s upward march. $3,400 was the last support level before prices went sky high, and I suspect that will be the base to build from. This isn’t some statistical genius calculation or anything. It’s likely the conclusion a 4-year old with a crayon would come up with if shown a 2 year chart. Don’t underestimate Occam's razor.

I have to agree around mining, because most people know difficulty can scale so it shouldn't be a major problem. There was little in the way of downward movements in 2017 so there's next to no real support levels for the price to fall back on. I would agree that the first one is in the low $3000s. I'm hoping $4200 will hold but if it doesn't I do expect $3k to do so.

[gentlemand]

Bitcoin price is a bubble? No way! I don't see a 100 billion market cap (just before the fall) to be considered a bubble. Bitcoin is many things : medium of exchange, potential store of value (long term), scarce, non inflationary, easy to transport, asset  tool against governments , and also pure speculatve asset. All these things combined have a HUGE potential

Deffo a bubble, largely created by all that ICO shit which was even emptier than the dotcom bubble. Something can be a bubble and still be worthwhile. We're still in the pure speculation phase. There are no doubt a small number of people using it for genuine utility such as druggists and people in shithole countries. Everyone else is playing still.

[cellard]

$2000 is definitely within the realm of possibility. But I'm guessing Hayes will be wrong this time, just like he was with his $50,000 prediction. Markets tend to disappoint in both directions.

I'm looking at this uptrend from 2016 for a possible bottom:



As an alternative, we have the 200-week MA standing at $3,130 and rising.

We are going to see someone getting an overly pessimistic prediction wrong eventually, it always happens. It could be this guy. Just like very bullish predictions can be wrong, pessimistic predictions are there too to be wrong, somewhere in the middle is reality (few people nail the correct entry and exit points).

Remember that Tone Vays called $7500 as the best case scenario for 2017:



Statistically, someone will be wrong on the low end, and will miss the boat waiting for that "sweet spot". That's why if you can, just hold through the storm. Bitcoin's moves can be too crazy to fathom.

[OgNasty]

I think mining is playing a smaller role than believed. We were in the largest asset bubble in modern financial history. The price is simply falling to reality before resuming it’s upward march. $3,400 was the last support level before prices went sky high, and I suspect that will be the base to build from. This isn’t some statistical genius calculation or anything. It’s likely the conclusion a 4-year old with a crayon would come up with if shown a 2 year chart. Don’t underestimate Occam's razor.

The 4-year old with a crayon method remains undefeated.

[Clark05]

I hope bitcoin price will not decreased to 2000 dollars because it is not good for us. But theu have possibility also that the price of the bitcoin will decreased very low because most of the people right now are panic selling of their coins they have.

[1Referee]

While everyone here is losing its cool, Bitmex is generating tons of profits. It's a money making machine not caring one single bit about what direction the price is heading to. They want your everything at any time of the day. Do you guys see how Arthur is always smiling from ear to ear? He's the real G in town.

It's funny though, people first say we need a firm shakeout to get rid of weak hands, now we're having it, it's suddenly horrible? This is what you asked for.

How about those who kept saying that if the price would dip below $5000 I would buy in an instant? Here it is. Utilize it if you have balls.

[bbc.reporter]

I declare that I officially hate this Arthur Hayes. I want Tom Lee's predictions. I promise I will not laugh or post the wrong pictures of him anymore.

Tom Lee, where are you?

[gentlemand]

I declare that I officially hate this Arthur Hayes.

Y'know what's worst of all? He won't care that you hate him. The more hate and fear there is the more money he hoovers up. When everything's a smoking ruin he'll go off and colonise Mars, or buy the Maldives. And if him and Tom Lee were in the same room he'd reduce Tom to dust with the laser beams in his eyes.

[gentlemand]

Well, one of his predictions just came true - double digit ETH.

https://twitter.com/iamjosephyoung/status/1066659625448210433

And people didn't take to kindly to that call back in the day.

https://twitter.com/buddhacoiner/status/1029545976191582208