To All You Guys Who Keep Telling Everybody to BTFD

[tokeweed]

BTFD = Buy The F*cking Dip



I don't wanna be a party pooper or anything but BTC getting back to its ath could take a lot longer than anticipated.  Markets are more irrational than not and the fundamentals may see that it should go to ath, it prolly won't.

The best example I could think of is the Japanese stock market.  It still hasn't broken it's ath which happened on 1990.  That's like a tad under 30 years.

Nikkei 225 Index:  1950 - 2018

[Vit83]

If we talk about fundamental things, then the only powerful level of support is $ 3,000) But I prefer to trust different clever analytics) Now the only way is to hold) Because to sell at such prices to get only small part of my depo I don't want)

[1Referee]

If we talk about fundamental things, then the only powerful level of support is $ 3,000) But I prefer to trust different clever analytics) Now the only way is to hold) Because to sell at such prices to get only small part of my depo I don't want)

$3000 is people's safe haven level it seems. I am in that camp as well, but it does make up for a scenario at which whales could on purposely choose to demolish that level. Imagine the panic going through the market if that happens, perfect last shakeoff attempt it is. I'm sure that when $3000 breaks, even a part of the Bitcoin OG's will start to feel uncomfortable.

I would say the best thing to do is to place buy orders between $2000 and $3500 to make sure you don't have to manually check and act. I have done it already and now it's waiting for my orders to get filled. I'm confident that the orders between $3000-$3500 will get filled in the coming days, everything below $3000 is a bonus for me.

[cindygirl]

If you're buying now at $3000 then you don't need bitcoin to return to its ATH anytime soon. If it takes 30 years that's still going to be one of the best investments available to you. If it goes to $6000 in 1 year then that's better than most traditional investments.

[o_e_l_e_o]

I mean, I agree with you tokeweed, but there was the greatest financial crash since the great depression in those 30 years which goes some way to explaining the slow recovery. And as we all know, bitcoin prices tend to fluctuate and swing much more significantly and rapidly than stock market prices. I know that past performance does not predict future behavior, and I agree that we are probably going to be waiting several years for the next all time high, but I think 30 years is a bit of a stretch.

[BitHodler]

It all depends on the dip, and your time horizon. Any dip below $10,000 in my opinion is worth buying, the most important aspect however is the amount you allocate to each dip.

Dips between $8000-$10,000 are low priority, so the amounts I use in this case are low. Dips below $6000 are priority dips, which means that I use significantly higher amounts than with the aforementioned levels.

Anything below $4000 is an instant buy in my book. I continue to average my way in as much as I can. If the price drops further, I'll buy more. I have enough patience to wait for a recovery.

[gentlemand]

The best example I could think of is the Japanese stock market.  It still hasn't broken it's ath which happened on 1990.  That's like a tad under 30 years.

There is one very extremely large difference which renders that comparison invalid - every crypto wave brings in more people than were already present in a way no stock market does. They've already reached saturation. They may grow in financial terms. They won't grow significantly in personnel terms.

Future waves will bring numbers up to not far off saturation. This wave sure as buggery was not it.

[WinslowIII]

I mean, I agree with you tokeweed, but there was the greatest financial crash since the great depression in those 30 years which goes some way to explaining the slow recovery. And as we all know, bitcoin prices tend to fluctuate and swing much more significantly and rapidly than stock market prices. I know that past performance does not predict future behavior, and I agree that we are probably going to be waiting several years for the next all time high, but I think 30 years is a bit of a stretch.

3 crypto years = 30 normal years.

[pooya87]

first of all you can't compare a brand new technology which is not even adopted yet let alone be mass adopted to an established market like stocks which has existed for years and it doesn't really grow since there is no adoption like bitcoin.
bitcoin is rising like this because its adoption is growing. there are more people coming in and demand rises hence the price shoots up.

secondly "dip" depends on your perspective. for a day trader going from $3900 to $3850 is a dip. but for a longer term investor $6000 was the dip.
for example the after 2013 dip which people love to compare to this year was the same. $250 was "dip" that people bought at. do you think they are crying about it now because afterwards price dropped 40%? LOL

[bitcoinisbest]

I mean, I agree with you tokeweed, but there was the greatest financial crash since the great depression in those 30 years which goes some way to explaining the slow recovery. And as we all know, bitcoin prices tend to fluctuate and swing much more significantly and rapidly than stock market prices. I know that past performance does not predict future behavior, and I agree that we are probably going to be waiting several years for the next all time high, but I think 30 years is a bit of a stretch.

3 crypto years = 30 normal years.

They fail to understand that what has happened in last year 2017. If people who had not bought at lower price or hold it say bought at 1k, 2k etc and sold around 15 - 18k or so how would they have become rich or many have become millionaire as well during this process. So it is individual decision if people want to make money or not and if yes how will they make if they do not buy on dip.

[davis196]

So you think that bitcoin will never reach it's ATH again,by comparting it with the Japanese stock market?
Where's the logic?I don't see any logic.Japan is way different than the USA or Europe.Their financial system is different.We just can't compare it with bitcoin.Anyway,the people,who buy the dip have to buy to HODL for the long term,not just to buy the dip.

[Pursuer]

what I don't get here is that why made you even compare stocks market of Japan with bitcoin?!!! it is like comparing apples and oranges. there is nothing comparable here. and even if you want to compare then start comparing them in ALL aspects not just take one part (the time taking for recovery) and compare that. you need to start comparing volume, price rise and drop (as in the size and time frame it takes), manipulations, regulation, investor trust, FUD, number of investors, potential... and a ton of other factors. and as you start doing that you can see how your statement starts falling apart.

[Wilhelm]

what I don't get here is that why made you even compare stocks market of Japan with bitcoin?!!! it is like comparing apples and oranges. there is nothing comparable here. and even if you want to compare then start comparing them in ALL aspects not just take one part (the time taking for recovery) and compare that. you need to start comparing volume, price rise and drop (as in the size and time frame it takes), manipulations, regulation, investor trust, FUD, number of investors, potential... and a ton of other factors. and as you start doing that you can see how your statement starts falling apart.

He made the comparison because it fits his outlook on the situation or the agenda of his master .
Just another FUD.

But in some sense there is a point to be made that the history of Bitcoin might not repeat. I however still believe in Bitcoin

[o_e_l_e_o]

bitcoin is rising like this because its adoption is growing. there are more people coming in and demand rises hence the price shoots up.

True, but we can't rely solely on new money constantly coming in to maintain the price, otherwise that would just be the Greater Fool Theory in practice. And new money is unlikely to enter much for the foreseeable future given the ongoing price crash. The price has to come from bitcoin being used, and all the people just buying and holding waiting for the price to "moon" aren't helping that.

He made the comparison because it fits his outlook on the situation or the agenda of his master .
Just another FUD.

I agree that the comparison to the Japanese stock market isn't the most valid, for the reasons I states in my previous post, but writing off everything you don't like as "FUD" is neither smart nor helpful. Everyone needs to be aware that yes, we could rally again next year, but similarly this could very well be the start of a several year bear market. No one knows.

[Wilhelm]

I agree that the comparison to the Japanese stock market isn't the most valid, for the reasons I states in my previous post, but writing off everything you don't like as "FUD" is neither smart nor helpful. Everyone needs to be aware that yes, we could rally again next year, but similarly this could very well be the start of a several year bear market. No one knows.

If someone grabs a random stock and predicts that recovery will not happen in 30 years and project it on Bitcoin, then IMO OP is projecting

- Fear of never recovering
- Uncertainty of Bitcoins future
- Despair as in "Don't Buy the F*cking Dip"

You are correct that we do not know what is coming. I think we should try and be optimistic.

[Pursuer]

what I don't get here is that why made you even compare stocks market of Japan with bitcoin?!!! it is like comparing apples and oranges. there is nothing comparable here. and even if you want to compare then start comparing them in ALL aspects not just take one part (the time taking for recovery) and compare that. you need to start comparing volume, price rise and drop (as in the size and time frame it takes), manipulations, regulation, investor trust, FUD, number of investors, potential... and a ton of other factors. and as you start doing that you can see how your statement starts falling apart.

He made the comparison because it fits his outlook on the situation or the agenda of his master .
Just another FUD.

But in some sense there is a point to be made that the history of Bitcoin might not repeat. I however still believe in Bitcoin

well, I don't know. I can't remember seeing @tokeweed spreading FUD about bitcoin in the past so I don't think the intentions here was FUDing either. I still find the comparison pretty strange though.

[gentlemand]

well, I don't know. I can't remember seeing @tokeweed spreading FUD about bitcoin in the past so I don't think the intentions here was FUDing either. I still find the comparison pretty strange though.

It's somewhat disingenuous to start calling him a FUDbot by attempting to inject some realism but it's interesting how people ALWAYS choose stock markets as a comparison when it's forex that has many more similarities in how it operates at least.

3 crypto years = 30 normal years.

Another fundamental difference is a stock market operates a few hours a day 5 days a week in one country. Crypto churns 24/7 globally in every grubby corner of the internet.

Human psychology can't be rushed but it terms of pure market that means 200 or so countries 24 hours a day vs 1 country for 8 hours a day. 600x more temporal real estate for action.

[fabiorem]

I mean, I agree with you tokeweed, but there was the greatest financial crash since the great depression in those 30 years which goes some way to explaining the slow recovery. And as we all know, bitcoin prices tend to fluctuate and swing much more significantly and rapidly than stock market prices. I know that past performance does not predict future behavior, and I agree that we are probably going to be waiting several years for the next all time high, but I think 30 years is a bit of a stretch.

3 crypto years = 30 normal years.

This. But about BTFD, I dont think cost-averaging is a good strategy, specially in a bear market. But waiting for a bottom is not a good strategy either, as I tought 6k was the final bottom, bought some fractions and now the price is half of it. We cant have strategies with bitcoin, the market is very manipulated.

[TheBeardedBaby]

There is one other thing that is missing in the big picture.
In addition to what the previous guys said about the comparison between bitcoin market and the Japanese stock market the here is the other nail to the OP's theory -  the Bitcoin Halving.
And those 4 year cycles cause and will continue to make the market tremble, it inevitable.

Just for fun here...

Source > https://cryptozek.com/bitcoin-chart-wall-street-cheat-sheet-market-cycle/

[gentlemand]

There is one other thing that is missing in the big picture.
In addition to what the previous guys said about the comparison between bitcoin market and the Japanese stock market the here is the other nail to the OP's theory -  the Bitcoin Halving.
And those 4 year cycles cause and will continue to make the market tremble, it inevitable.

Halvings will gradually lose potency. Going from 25 BTC to 12.5 is a big deal when there are still 15% of new coins to arrive. Going from 0.78 to 0.39 when 0.8% is left to mine is considerably less impactful in real terms. Dunno about the psychology f those numbers though.